Trends & importance of research in current scenario : case in Econometrics

S G Deshmukh

ABV-Indian Institute of Information Technology & Management Gwalior

FDP on “Applications of Econometrics in Management Research”

21 June 2013

Acknowledgement

This presentation is based on extensive discussions/information sharing sessions with – Prof Abid Haleem , Prof R S Deshpande, Prof S Mahendra Dev,

Prof M H Suryanarayana, Prof N K Sharma, Dr Jitesh Thakkar

– Thankful to numerous research scholars and faculty members from various institutes for making us realize the trends and importance of research in current scenario

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Prelude..

You may look at the presentation

given by me on 14 Jun 2013 at FDP on Multivariate

Data Analysis for Management Research at ABV-

IIITM Gwalior.

Available at

http://www.slideshare.net/SanjeevDeshmukh/trends-inconnectingresearchsgd2013

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Commentary..

• What is the problem with most researchers

- ask vague questions and then expect precise answers out of great path breaking research !

Speaking points..

• About research..

– Why research

– Types of research

• About some of the current trends

– T1: Too much yet too little

– T2: Collaboration & Connectivity

– T3: Digitization of Impact of research

• About econometrics..

• Closing remarks.. 5

Why research..1.. Your research credentials are looked through

I. Visibility & Accreditations

II. Knowledge creation and dissemination

III. Attracting students, researchers, faculty etc.

IV. Funding, Industry support & Sustainability

Source: Haleem Abid, 2013, Enhancing research credentials,

presentation for faculty at AMU

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Benchmark for Excellence as required by NAAC

S.

No.

Indicators Range & benchmark

indicators

High Medium Low

1 Percentage of annual allocation for library spent

on purchase of journals & other library resources

(CDs’ Cassettes, etc.)

>15

%

>12 to

15%

>8 to

11%

2 Number of national / international Conferences /

workshops organized per department per/yr.

>3 2 1

3 The number of departments with UGC/ DST/

FIST etc, in university

>25

%

>10-

25%

<10

%

4 Revenue generated from consultancy per/ yr >50

lac

>20-50

lac

<20

lac

5 Number of MOU’s with International recognized

bodies

>30 >10-30 <10

6 No. of Post Doctoral Fellows/ Research

associates working a) Locals b) Outsiders

>50 >10-50 <10

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Benchmark for Excellence as required by NAAC

S.

No.

Indicators Range & benchmark

indicators

High Medium Low

7 Percentage of teachers with Ph.D. qualification

General Courses Professional Courses (for ex. MD

/DM for medicine and ME/MS for engg)

>90-

100%

50-90% <30%

8 National recognitions for faculty for Teaching /

Research/Consultancy / Extension.

>20% >5-20% 1-5%

9 Percentage of courses / programmes that formally

integrate e-learning resources from digital library

retrieval.

>80% >40-80% <40%

10 No. of completed research projects/per teacher

(Funded by National /International Agencies)

>2 >1 <1

11 No. of outgoing research projects / per teacher >1 >0.5-1 <0.5

12 Coordinated / Collaborative Projects (National &

International)

>2 >1 <1 8

Benchmark for Excellence as required by NAAC

S.

No

Core Indicators Range & benchmark

indicators

High Medium Low

13 Publications per faculty

>5

>3 <3

14 Percentage of papers published in journals

listed in well known international

databases

>75% >50-

75%

<50%

15 Average impact factor of publications >2 >1 <1

16 Number of papers with more than 10

citations

>10% 5-10% <5%

17 Number of book titles per student (in the

central library) excluding book bank

>100 >80 to

100

<60

to 80

18 No. of Patents (last 5 Year) >20 <5-20 <5

19 Output of M. Phil & Ph.D. per faculty 5 3-4 <3

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THE: World university ranking template www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/

Sn Factor Weightage

1 International outlook 7.5 %

2 Research : Volume, Income, Reputation

30.0 %

3 Citations: Research influence 30.0 %

4 Industry Income: Innovation 2.5 %

5 Teaching: Learning environment

30.0%

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http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/

Rank University Country

1 California Inst of Technology

USA

2 University of Oxford UK

3 Stanford University USA

4 Harvard University USA

5 MIT USA

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India’s outstanding universities www.careers360.com/Archive/56-Archive

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University WOS Scopus 2011

BHU 7382 14820

University of Delhi

8439 13169

University of Calcutta

4010 12763

University of Hyderabad

3692 12122

Jadavpur University

5804 11458

Why research ..2.. Objectives of Ph D Programme at IITB

• The broad objectives of the Ph.D. programme is not only to keep pace with the expanding frontiers of knowledge but also to provide research training relevant to the present social and economic objectives of the country.

• The academic programme leading to the Ph.D. degree is broad based and involves a minimum course credit requirement and research thesis.

Typical expectations at Doctoral level

• Creation and interpretation of new knowledge

– Through original research, or other advanced scholarship

– Of a quality to satisfy peer review and merit publication

• Systematic acquisition and understanding of a substantial body of knowledge

• At the forefront of an academic discipline or area of professional practice

• Conceptualise, design and implement a project for the generation of new knowledge, applications or understanding

• Detailed understanding of applicable techniques for research and advanced academic enquiry

Why research ..3.. Phd: Ground reality • Cosmetics !

• Promotion & Career Advancement

• Build, “Think Tank”

• Academic Recognition & Team building

• R&D in Industry

• Problem Solving

• Export of Expertise

• Learning to work out to minimize efforts to do a task/job

Reality check: Typical comments on Ph D work.. • Too much theoretical content

• Compartmentalized approach

• Gap between what is researched and what is required

• Not socially relevant

Driving forces & Sources of Ideas

Driving Forces behind

Ph D

• Interest

• Market forces

• Status

• Recognition

• Dream

• Fire & Spark !!

Sources of Ideas

• Lab

• Library

• Computer

• Internet

• Industry

• Mistakes done in past

Skills expected from a RS

• Technical skills : Subject matter

• Ability to pose questions

• Ability to work independently

• Ability to identify with the community

• Soft skills: Communication, team work, perseverance , tenacity

• Ph D : Perseverance, Hard work and Determination

Skill Set ..

Hard Skills

• Domain knowledge

• Problem solving aptitude

• Ability to use/handle technology

• Ability to analyze

• Ability to synthesize

• Ability to innovate

Soft Skills

• Ability to communicate

• Ability to work in a team

• Ability to have a positive frame of mind

• Ability to negotiate

• Ability to handle stress

Observation: Researchers and research quality

• The profile of researchers in the country is by and large not very promising

• There is a disconnect between researcher and his research

• Disconnect between researcher in India and the Global community

• Not able to penetrate into high quality original/novel research as recognized by the international community

Current scenario characterized by ..

• Collaborative & connectivity focus

• Interdisciplinary push & pull

• Immediacy factor & need for visibility

• Suited to addressing socio-economic imperatives

Remarks..

• Developments at the global level are taking place very rapidly

• Unless there is serious research, it is difficult to keep track of these developments and translate these outcomes into classroom

• Global integration after 1990- Indian academics also needs to be integrated

Remarks..

• If somebody relies only on teaching, he/she may not get recognition in research community l

• There is no guarantee that what is applicable in USA/Europe is applicable in India or in emerging markets !

• Management Faculty has to be research active!

Why research ..4.. Some hard facts

• Consideration for higher positions in good management schools not possible unless there is good number of quality journal publications

• Funding is not possible unless good publications !

• Incentives based on publications!

• Publications not possible unless there is research !

Remarks..

• Focus is hardly on publication in the research program. At times working papers (in house) are taken as research publications

Teaching-Research–Consulting-Training Cycle

Teaching

Training

Consulting

Research

Researchers and research quality

• The profile of researchers in in the country is by and large not very encouraging

• Disconnect between researcher in India and the Global community

• Not able to penetrate into high quality original/novel research as recognized by the international community

• Source: Deshmukh SG, 2013, Trends in Research in current scenario: Connect

research, 14 Jun 2013

Research project types: General pattern

Four types of research projects pursued for doctoral work:

Questionnaire based empirical research

Anecdotal research on some specific region or area which analyses the data and makes conclusions in a journalistic style

Case studies in a specific organization and to suggest improvements using known methods

Quantitative/mathematical models on oversimplified context of reality or extensions of work done by researchers in developed world.

Research categories

Highly qualitative: Anecdotal based on hear-says, stories or experience sharing by senior managers

Highly quantitative based on mathematical modeling focusing on OR like models, theorems and lemmas. At times far more complex than the need to do that. Complex model for routine operational problems and vice versa. Strategic decisions still based on hunch.

Case -studies based: Based on real life application of known concepts published in practical journals like the HBR or simulations.

Statistical analysis ,hypothesis testing using SPSS,Lisrel based on instruments such as questionnaires. Hypothesis to be tested are almost axiomatic at times. Reproducibility of results not assured.

Soft systems approach; System dynamics modelling,ISM, SWOT analysis,SEM.The recent statistical tools have added esthetic value to output through colorful charts diagrams, graphs which makes even ordinary research finding look impressive.

Some research hypotheses • “If you know the outcome of your research, then

you are not doing research”-Einstein.

• Hypothesis:”The relationship between Emotional Intelligence and job performance will be stronger for individuals whose job involves greater amount of interpersonal interaction”-

• Hunch says true, So says the research findings. Axiomatic hypothesis testing.(Source

Vision,Vol.14,no.4,Oct.-Dec.2010,pp.250-252).

• There is no new light by such like researches.

• Statistical packages such as SPSS,LISREL have made as if you are doing in-depth research l

Typical objectives of research

• To gain familiarity with a phenomenon or to achieve new insights into it

• To portray accurately the characteristics of a particular individual, situation or a group

• To determine the frequency with which something occurs or with which it is associated with something else

• To test a hypothesis of a causal relationship between variables

Motivation in Research

• Desire to get a research degree along with its consequential benefits

• Desire to face the challenges in solving the unsolved problems

• Desire to get intellectual joy of doing some creative work

• Desire to be of service to society

• Desire to get respectability

Criteria for good research

• Good research is systematic

• Good research is logical

• Good research is empirical

• Good research is replicable

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Criteria for good research

• Good research is systematic- structured with

specified steps taken in specified sequence in accordance with well-defined rules

• Good research is logical: logical reasoning makes research more meaningful in the context of decision making

• Good research is empirical: dealing with concrete data that provides the basis for external validity to research results.

• Good research is replicable

Trend 1: Too much yet too little

• Interconnected world: Millions of ideas getting generated, developed and disseminated

• There are about 50k to 200k journals in the world !

• Faster publishing cycle

• Web enabled submission, review and publication process

• Googalised research !

• Shelf life of an idea has shortened considerably !

Implications

• You have to update continuously

• You must know the state-of-the-art

• You have to be comfortable with Technology (IT)

• You have to innovate continuously

• Literature review ?

Trend 2 : Collaboration & connectivity !

• Sharing of information

• Institutional collaboration

• Professional networks

• Social networks

Implications

• Sharing of information/Knowledge made easy

• “Open source” paradigm

• You must collaborate and connect

• Your collaborator may be anywhere in the globe available 24 x 7 basis

• Power & influence of social media as a binder!

Connectivity through social media • Social media are tools for social interaction using

Web-based and mobile technologies (Wikipedia).

• These technologies, often referred to as Web 2.0 , provide services that support users in generating and publishing their own content.

• The social interactions developed as a result of this activity can support engagement with communities of practice through networking and other co-operative and collaborative practices.

Researchgate www.researchgate.net

• A network for researchers

• One can share and disseminate

• Contributions in terms of publications, downloads, datasets etc.

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I link therefore I am..

• Pegrum, M., "'I link therefore I am': network literacy as a core digital literacy", E-learning and Digital Media 7(4), 346-354 2010 doi:10.2304/elea.2010.7.4.346

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Trend 3: Digitization of research impact

Quality of Research based on Citation Report : Scopus /web of science

• Total citations: 129

• Average citations :10.75

Authors Title Journal Total citation Average Citations Per year

Suresh Pvs, Rao PV,

Deshmukh SG

A Genetic Algorithmic Approach

for Optimization of Surface

Roughness Prediction Model

International

Journal Of Machine

Tools &

Manufacture 42(6)

, 675-680, 2002

129 10.75

Components of research outcome

• Individual Academic & Research Output • Institutional Academic & Research Output • Collaborations: How many people are we collaborating? the

collaboration index. • Share in local, regional, National and Global knowledge

resources • Patents, prototypes, new ventures • Advisory and policy making role • Conferences, seminars, Research papers, books and then

organized course material Measuring this output through SCOPUS, h index, impact

factor SNIP, SJR, Google scholar, etc.

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Individual academic / research Output

• Organized Course Materials, monographs • Manuals • Edited Volume • Proceedings of Invited Lectures, Seminar, Workshop,

etc. • Proceedings of Conference; refereed & non-refereed • Text books, Reference Books • Technical Reports • Thesis • Patents, prototypes • Audio & Audio-Video Materials

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Institutional research output

• Research papers in refereed journals • Research papers in non-refereed journals • Open access publications • Institutional journal publications • National / International Journals • Research Books • Seminar; National, International • Workshops / Training programs • Conferences; National, International • Patents filed and received • Industry projects undertaken

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Alternative measures for impact of research altmetrics is the creation and study of new metrics based on the Social Web for analyzing, and informing scholarship. www.altmetrics.org • Supplement to traditional peer-reviewed metrics

• Looks at downloads

• “Crowdsource peer-review”

• Many tools currently available: – Google Scholar Profile/citations

– Mendeley

– Total-Impact

– ReaderMeter

Observation..

Econometricians rarely base their analysis on a controlled experiment. Most of the time they are dealing with non-experimental (=observational) data. Experimental data are often collected in laboratory environment

Because of non-experimental nature of economic relationships some standard assumptions made in statistics are often violated and an econometrician has to find a way to “fix” statistical methods to fit the situation.

Observation..

A major distinction is the econometricians’ concern with disturbance term.

Economic specification of consumption function:

Consumption=f(Income)

Econometric specification: Consumption=f(Income)+u, where u is an error term.

Without the error term the relationship is exact or deterministic; with the error term it is stochastic.

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Econometrics and Statistics

Regression Models : Linear & non-Linear

Multivariate Analysis

Cross-section : Likelihood Theory

Time Series : ARIMA

Non-Parametrics

11 November 2007 51

Econometrics and Statistics Non Experimental (i.i.d) Data sample selection (self-selection) endogeneity, instrumental variables

Misspecified Models : diagnostics/ model choice

Structural Modelling : causal relationships : economic theory and insight

Identification : Structural <==> Reduced Form

moment conditions

Multivariate Time-series Analysis VAR with Non-stationary data Cointegration CVAR

What is driving this relationship ?

Typical steps in econometric analysis Step 1: Careful formulation of the question of

interest. In most cases this step starts from a formal economic model and leads to an econometric model to be estimated

Step 2: Data collection

Step 3: Model estimation, inference, prediction

Source: Gujarati D, 1994, Basics of econometrics, McGraw Hill

My exposure to econometrics..

• Background in OR

• Taught courses such as : Probability & Statistics, Statistics for Decision making

• Worked in IGIDR : a research institute set by RBI

• www.igidr.ac.in

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Refer to :

Parikh Kirit , Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize & Ghosh Probal , Structural changes n Indian economy & its agriculture :1960-2040: presentation at Silver jubilee international conference on : Development: Success & Challenges, at IGIDR, 1-3 Dec 2012 http://www.igidr.ac.in/index.php?option=com_conte

nt&view=article&id=277

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Issues to be addressed..

What is the role of Agriculture in Sustained Inclusive Double Digit Growth over the next three decades?

How important are Irrigation, Productivity Growth and Trade?

How is Structural Transformation progressing in India?

56

Assignment to you..

• In order to address these issues, what tools and techniques are to be used?

• How to model various relationships

• How to estimate various parameters?

• How to formulate and test the hypotheses ?

• What policy experiments can be run?

• What insights do we get ?

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Insights.. As shared by my Ph d student* • Sometimes in life you are busy because you have reasons and other

times you search the reasons to make yourself busy! – Research is an instrument to experience second part!

• Real enjoyment lies in chasing the challenges and not only in cherishing the results!

• Literature is like a detergent, helps to investigate and purify SELF at each stage!

• Moving from accepting a sentence as a universal truth; to seeing it as a proposition for further exploration; to have a strong desire to critically evaluate it as a hypothesis - dictates the advancement of an individual in research!

* Dr Jitesh Thakkar, Faculty at IIT Kgp

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Closing remarks..

• Research is inevitable.

• Good research brings visibility and recognition

• Trends such as limited shelf life, collaborative forces, connecting push and digitization of research outcome affecting the quality and quantity of research

• Econometrics: a serious discipline and offers lot of challenging problems to be addressed

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References

• Waldrop M (2008) Science 2.0: Great new tool, or great risk? Scientific American. Available at: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=science-2-point-0-great-new-tool-or-great-risk

• Digital Researcher http://www.vitae.ac.uk/researchers/315321/Digital-Researcher.html

• Cann, A., Dimitriou, K., Hooley, T., "Social Media : A guide for researchers", (February), 2011 http://www.rin.ac.uk/our-work/communicating-and-disseminating-research/social-media-guide-researchers

• Gujarati D , Essentials of Econometrics, McGraw Hill, 2004,

• iGoogle http://www.google.com/ig

• Google Reader http://www.google.com/reader

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Thank you

deshmukh.sg@gmail.com

Visit me www.slideshare.net/SanjeevDeshmukh/

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