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CCSD #47

ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS -

AN INTRODUCTION

Presented on March 22, 2011

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Executive Summary

Per the Kasarda B Projections, District 47student enrollment is expected to decline by

approximately 1,000 students in the nextseven to eight years

Data on birth trends suggest that the sizes ofkindergarten classes will remain flat ordecline in some instances

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Executive Summary

Birth rates coupled with slowing housingturnover and development has inhibited the

attraction of younger households withchildren

The short term housing growth prospects arebleak

Indian Prairie, Glacier Ridge, South andLundahl are schools worth noting

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Kasarda Series

B Projection

Factors in obtaining a series B projection:

a. less than optimistic housing forecasts

b. average student migration/transfers

c. an assumption is made that the housingmarket would be recovered by 2015 whichincludes the resumption of construction andhousing turnover back to historical averages

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Enrollment History

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Projected Enrollment

By 2018-2019, D47 will experience a decrease of about 1,000 students

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Determinants of

Enrollment Change

Kindergarten class versus exiting 8th graders

Net migration/transfers as they progress

Annual change in special education class sizes

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Decomposition of

Enrollment Change

Transition Year

Sept to Sept

Change

Total

Enrollment

Entering K

Vs. Exiting 8th

Net Student

Migration/

Transfer

Change in

SPED

Enrollment

2000-2001 248 -13 214 47

2001-2002 233 -61 296 -22002-2003 180 -81 258 3

2003-2004 20 -151 177 -6

2004-2005 149 -157 226 80

2005-2006 -42 -181 122 172006-2007 -135 -181 22 24

2007-2008 -259 -282 51 -28

2008-2009 -209 -245 55 -19

2009-2010 -269 -332 21 42

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Existing Plotted Lots

Development Location # of Units Schools AffectedExpected Build

Out

Bard Square Bard & Huntley 38 M ulti Family West/RBMS After 2015

Ashwood Estates W. of Huntley; S. of

Oakwood; N or Bard

28 Single Family West/RBMS In 2013/2014

Preston Pines N. of 176; E. of Rt.31 at Brighton Ln.

and River Birch Blvd

275 Single Family;184 Townhomes

Husmann/RBMS Postponed until2015-2020

Ashton Pointe W. of Pingree Rd.;N. of UPRR

71 Single Family; 49Townhomes

Coventry/HBMS Some maybe nextyear

Waterford W. of Golf Course atWaterford Cut

11 Single FamilyStill Avail.

WC/LMS Completion by2014

Lexington NW. Corner ofRandall and Miller

Rds.

94 Townhomes IP/LMS Not built until2012-2015

Prairie Grove TownCenter

Not in Crystal Lake 28 Single Family; 72Multi Family

Husmann/HBMS Not built until2015-2020

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BUILDING LEVEL EFFECTS

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Anticipated Building Level

Enrollment Decline Through 2015-2016

School10-11

Enrollment15-16

EnrollmentStudent

DecreasePercentage

Decrease

Canterbury 511 480 -31 6.4%

Coventry 521 487 -34 7%

Glacier Ridge 665(540) 594(468) -71(-72) 12%(15.4%)

Husmann 631 594 -54 9.4%Indian Prairie 599 519 -80 15.4%

North 678 608 -70 11.5%

South 440 394 -46 11.7%

West 695 649 -46 7.1%

Woods Creek 644 586 -58 9.9%

HBMS 972 954 -18 1.8%

RBMS 1004 905 -99 10.9%

LMS 999 881 -118 13.4%

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Potential Impact

and Considerations Additional information for the BOE

Educational programming (i.e., special

education, dual language, kindergarten, etc) Philosophy on school size

School boundaries

Building usage Staffing levels and placement

Community reaction

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DISCUSSION