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Enrollment ProjectionsKenmore Town of TonawandaUnion Free School DistrictDecember 11, 2012

Robin B. ZymrozOffice of Student ServicesMethodologyMethod 1

Projection Method 1 uses the survival ratios for the past five years in a particular grade. It arrives at a mean value to use in projecting how many students in the previous grade the prior year will become students in that grade that year.

This method is the most accurate for school districts that have not experienced major impacts on their district in recent years.

MethodologyMethod 2

Projection Method 2 uses the survival ratio for only the current year to project enrollment.

This method may be most accurate for your school if it has recently experienced a change in its enrollment trends.Methodology Method 3

Projection Method 3 uses the average arrived at by method 1 and combines that with the one year ratio used by method 2. The resulting ratio emphasizes current trends in your enrollment while tempering that with the trends of the past.

This method will best suit districts that have had fluctuations in their enrollment due to temporary occurrences, but do not expect those occurrences to overwhelmingly impact future enrollment.BIRTHS FOR ERIE COUNTY200110,812200210,667200310,510200410,2072005 9,8322006 9,966200710,0202008 9,6802009 9,7972010 9,7692011 9,7322012 9,699Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 Kenmore West High School

2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-1816271546144614341341134413601324132412941284Grade 12 plus students not included

Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 2 Kenmore East High School

2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-1811481150112811371083981906831756713659Grade 12 plus students not included

Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 Kenmore Middle School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18679676653628643625621619597577564

Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 2 Hoover Middle School

2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18692646659651639630587581558539520Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method1 Franklin Middle School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18549546517502484497492488482468457Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 Edison Elementary School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18503458460454446433507494489491486Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 - Franklin Elementary School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18527524520506463478567564577575577Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 Hamilton Elementary School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18397390372382363352338334332329331Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 Holmes Elementary School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18325350340292331339342339339340335Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 3 Hoover Elementary School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18634639607586577570592568567576559Jefferson Elementary 6 Year Enrollment History2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-13300318303303312289Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 Lindbergh Elementary School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18489519494513510501559532537531527Enrollments 2007-08 to 2017-18Method 1 Roosevelt Elementary School2007-082008-092009-102010-112011-122012-132013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18370357348353333316306315313308309Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 1Grade2013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18K 53,2113,1463,1603,1543,1266 - 81,7131,7251,6711,6141,5749 - 122,3442,2942,2812,2812,249K - 127,2687,1657,1127,0496,949Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 1Enrollment Projected Five YearsDECREASE PERCENTAGEMETHOD 14.38%Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 2Grade2013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18K 53,1963,1083,0943,0663,0246 - 81,6981,6891,6331,5861,5389 - 122,3142,2632,2472,2362,197K - 127,2087,0606,9746,8886,759Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 2Enrollment Projected Five YearsDECREASE PERCENTAGEMETHOD 2

6.22%Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 3Grade2013-142014-152015-162016-172017-18K 53,2043,1263,1253,1063,0716 - 81,7051,7071,6531,6011,5559 - 122,3282,2772,2622,2572,223K - 127,2377,1107,0406,9646,849Enrollment Projected Five YearsMethod 3Enrollment Projected Five YearsDECREASE PERCENTAGEMETHOD 35.36%FIVE YEAR TREND 2008-2012District BuildingsGrade2008-092009-102010-112011-122012-13K5955365575475221 - 5296029022832278827566 - 8186818291781176617529 - 1227232603260424402340K - 1281467870777475417370FIVE YEAR TREND 2008-2012PERCENTAGE DECREASEEnrollment decrease9.52%Comparison of 2011-12 to 2012-13By District Building (includes grade 12 plus) School2011-122012-13Edison 446 433Franklin 463 478Hamilton 363 352Holmes 331 339Hoover 577 570Jefferson 312 289Lindbergh 510 501Roosevelt 333316Kenmore Middle 643 625Franklin Middle 484 497Hoover Middle 639 630Kenmore West13541355Kenmore East1086 985District Total75417370

2011-12 to 2012-13 ComparisonPercentage DecreaseEnrollment decrease2.26QUESTIONS