ETSUFall 2014 Enrollment Projections

Markov chain Analysis

Mike Hoff, DirectorInstitutional Research

10.31.2013

Enrollment projection goal

• To estimate the ETSU Fall 2014 Enrollment• Use a model that allows for testing

recruitment and retention scenarios• The results will be used to determine how

far from goal, 15,500, ETSU appears to be • To provide data which will inform defining

college level enrollment improvement plans

Assumptions• Assuming a consistent external

environment, and assuming that we make no changes to address recruitment and retention, the enrollment and progression patterns of students by class from year1 to year2 will remain stable– This allows for testing enrollment

improvement plans because the variable impact is real and measurable

• Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is approximately stable and recognized as a known quantity

Assumptions continued

• First-time and continuing freshmen can be combined as a total freshmen count

• Masters students, graduate specials, and ed specials can be combined as a total for projection only, but may be divided for goal setting

Model

• Markov chain– Is a time-series model that looks at past practice

to predict future outcome– For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks

students, by status, from year1 to year2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class

– The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year2, to calculate enrollment for year3

Model continued

• Markov chain was chosen because– It is used by other similar institutions, both in-state,

and out-of-state– It uses only institutional data– Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year

projections• Population based models were rejected due to

reliance on external projections• ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected

because of complexity without increased accuracy

Timeframe

• Data were collected by year for the years 2008 – 2013,– These years were used to establish a validity test

to understand the margin of error in the model– 2008 was the first year in Banner

• The data were then paired by year into two year groups to allow for projecting the next years enrollment– i.e. 2008 and 2009 were used to project 2010,

etc.

2014 Projected enrollment results of replicating the status quo

YearEstimate

Projected by Model

Actual Difference % Difference

2010 14,860.3 14,952 -91.7 -0.617%

2011 15,188.2 15,250 -61.8 -0.406%

2012 15,428.8 15,133 295.8 1.917%

2013 14,967.2 14,691 276.2 1.845%

2014 14,430 N/A N/A N/A

The projection for each year is a function of the actual enrollments from the two most recent prior years

Credibility: Is there a margin of error?

• Yes, a very slim one, on average +/- 1.196%

• That yields a projected enrollment range of 14,257 – 14,603

• In other words, the model was, based on 4-years history, 98.8% accurate

WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL OUR STUDENTS?

What happened to all our students?

• 39% are leaving, either through graduation or dropout– 19% are graduating– 20% are leaving through dropout

WHO ARE THE UNDERGRADUATE DROPOUTS?

Who are the undergraduate dropouts

College Freshmen Sophomore Junior Senior UG Spec Total % of

Total

ND 277 277 10.1%

UD 284 63 19 1 367 13.4%

AS 360 155 151 175 841 30.7%

BT 199 76 70 94 439 16.0%

CR 94 30 27 21 172 6.3%

CS 12 15 33 52 112 4.1%

ED 77 49 51 40 217 7.9%

NU 111 43 30 50 234 8.5%

PU 31 13 14 24 82 3.0%

Total 1,168 444 395 457 277 2,741 100%

Who are the undergraduate dropouts – (Exclude UD & ND)

College Freshmen Sophomore Junior Senior Total % of Total

AS 360 155 151 175 841 40.1%

BT 199 76 70 94 439 20.9%

CR 94 30 27 21 172 8.2%

CS 12 15 33 52 112 5.3%

ED 77 49 51 40 217 10.4%

NU 111 43 30 50 234 11.2%

PU 31 13 14 24 82 3.9%

Total 884 381 376 456 2,097 100%

Undergraduate data points of note

• 1,100 of the 3,212 New and Continuing Freshmen dropout or stop out

• Sophomore Enrollment is break-even, new & returning students are almost equal to dropouts

• Large Senior population leaving before graduation

WHO ARE THE GRADUATE DROPOUTS?

Who are the graduate dropouts

College Master Grad Special Doctor Total % of Total

ND 97 97 29.5%

AS 44 4 2 50 15.2%

BT 19 1 20 6.0%

CR 5 5 10 3.0%

CS 12 3 15 4.6%

ED 54 7 16 77 23.4%

GS 1 1 0.3%

ME 2 2 0.6%

NU 25 9 7 41 12.5%

PU 9 4 3 16 4.9%

Total 169 125 35 329 100%

Who are the graduate dropouts

College Master Doctor Total % of Total

AS 44 2 46 22.5%

BT 19 19 9.3%

CR 5 5 10 4.9%

CS 12 12 5.9%

ED 54 16 70 34.3%

GS 1 1 0.5%

ME 2 2 1.0%

NU 25 7 32 15.7%

PU 9 3 12 5.9%

Total 169 35 204 100%

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?Who needs to be involved?

THE BUC STOPS HERE!

Student recruitment and retention is everyone's responsibility

Who does it involve? Actions by offices such as these…

The Role of Colleges, Departments, and Programs

RecruitmentRetention

What must we do

• For ETSU to reach the 15,500 goal we must increase recruitment by 8% and retention by 6.5% or some combination yielding at least 1,070 students

• An 8% increase in recruitment is 440 students

• A 6.5% increase in retention equals 630 students

RECRUITMENT

Everyone recruits!Category Weight Recruitment

Goal

Freshmen 38% 167

Sophomore 14% 62

Junior 13% 57

Senior 15% 66

Undergraduate Special 9% 40

Masters 10% 44

Doctoral 1% 4

Total 100% 440

Recruitment goals by collegeCollege

Weight Recruitment Goal

AS 35% 154

BT 19% 84

CR 8% 35

CS 4% 17

ED 17% 75

NU 13% 57

PU 4% 18

Total 100% 440

RETENTION

Retention is not just a freshmen problem!

Category Retention Goal Dropout % of Dropout

Freshmen 239 1168 20.5%

Sophomore 88 444 19.8%

Junior 82 395 20.8%

Senior 95 457 20.8%

Undergraduate Special 57 277 20.6%

Masters 63 294 21.4%

Doctoral 6 35 17.1%

Total 630 3070 20.5%

Retention goals by student level

Category Weight RetentionGoal

Freshmen 38% 239

Sophomore 14% 88

Junior 13% 82

Senior 15% 95

Undergraduate Special 9% 57

Masters 10% 63

Doctoral 1% 6

Total 100% 630

Retention goals by college

College Weight Retention Goal

AS 35% 220

BT 19% 121

CR 8% 50

CS 4% 25

ED 17% 107

NU 13% 82

PU 4% 25

Total 100% 630

COLLEGE LEVEL RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION GOALS

Overall recruitment and retention goals by college

College Weight Recruitment Increase

RetentionIncrease

Total Increase

AS 35% 154 220 374

BT 19% 84 121 205

CR 8% 35 50 85

CS 4% 17 25 42

ED 17% 75 107 182

NU 13% 57 82 139

PU 4% 18 25 43

Total 100% 440 630 1,070

What is my part of the pie?

• We created the breakdown by college to ensure that as we grow we maintain the proportional distribution of students

• These goals will be achieved through a mix of college level and university level activities

• The goal today is to identify what is the most reasonable distribution of that responsibility

Recruitment: Working Hypothesis

• Why are students coming?– Undergraduate• A majority of the work is being done by offices

charged with carrying out that function effectively• Smaller share of the work is being carried out by

colleges departments

– Graduate• Colleges, departments, programs, and faculty

play a more direct role in recruitment

Retention: Working Hypothesis

• Why are students staying?– Undergraduate• A majority of the work is being carried out by

colleges, departments, programs and faculty• Smaller share of the work done by offices

charged with carrying out that function effectively

– Graduate• An even larger majority of the work is being

carried out by colleges, departments, programs, and faculty

Options

• Status Quo– Keep doing the same thing and assume

things will ‘work out’• Change– Use data to develop a plan to have a

positive impact on student retention, and enrollment

Results of the status quo

• Absent a well executed, and successful, enrollment improvement plan ETSU’s enrollment in Fall 2014 is projected to be 14,430– 1,070 students short of 15,500 goal

“Status Quo means falling behind”

Final reflections on the status quo

• Model was 98% accurate over the past 4 years

• Model shows we are down, to-goal, 1,070 students

• Reaching the goal is best achieved through a combination of Recruitment and Retention

Your Goal: Discuss College Level Enrollment Improvement Plans

Request: Present a plan in which you believe!• Plans:

– Must be college specific– Must be focused on the proportional share of enrollment

improvement, using the framework of the working hypothesis– Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona

fide improvement tactics– Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented

• Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals

– Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives– Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested

pending available funds– Should depict college assessment of risk

Don’t limit your plan

• Consider– Pedagogy & Delivery Systems– Curriculum

• Bridge Courses

– New Markets (International & Domestic)– New Collaborations– Alternative Schedules & Calendars– New Partnerships– New Student Populations

• With distinctive career goals• Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning,

International, Out-of-state, etc.)• Trade impacted workers

– Service to others

Recruitment Responsibility

• What responsibility for recruitment should reasonably reside with – – Individual College, Academic Department,

Program, and Faculty– Administrative and Academic Support

functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

Retention Responsibility

• What responsibility for retention should reasonably reside with – – Individual College, Academic Department,

Program, and Faculty– Administrative and Academic Support

functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

STUDENT SUCCESS THROUGHFOCUSED

RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION ENROLLMENT

PLANNING