Enrollment Projections

CBO Mentor ProgramJanuary 2009

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Enrollment Projections

Straight line

Projection

What is the purpose of the projection?

Short term 1 to 2 Years(For Budgetary and staffing purposes, tends to be conservative)

Medium Range 3 to 5 Years(For Boundary stability)

Long Range 5 to 10 Years(for facility or school construction needs)

The purpose of the projection will help define the methodology

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Factors that Influence Enrollment

Boundary changes and new or closing schools Changes or additions to programs Change to grade configurations Employment shifts Magnet/Charter/Private Schools Birth rates Residential construction/demolition Move in/out of families in existing homes Drop-outs Changes in school capacities Transfer students NCLB PI schools

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Good Economy

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But when things go wrong…

Land!

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A Simple SolutionCohort - Survival

Short-term projection method Required by state for eligibility SAB50-01

Based purely on a weighted mathematical formula assuming enrollment changes in the past will continue into the future

May be A BIG ASSUMPTION!

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Enrollment Projections – Cohort Survival

The enrollment projection method used by most educational agencies is the cohort survival technique. This technique uses a grade regression ratio (GRR), which is the quotient obtained by dividing the current enrollment of one grade level into the next higher grade level one year later. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade level to the next, and accounts for retention, dropouts, and migration, grade by grade. Cohort Survival predicts what will happen in the future based on what happened in the past.

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A Closer look at Cohort - Survival

100Grade 1

Enrollment 105Grade 2

Enrollment

2007

2008

80Grade 1

Enrollment ??Grade 2

Enrollment

2008

2009

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Cohort – Survival Pro and Con

Pro Simple formula/simple explanation Valid for short term projections Valid for areas with stable/consistent change School projections using cohorts take into consideration

intradistrict student transfers: valid for short-term staffing needs

Con Lumps all factors influencing projections into a mathematical

formula. 4 years of data/3 years of change: valid for only short-term

projections K changes based upon historical K Poor method for areas of residential growth/changes (suburban) School-based projections lose validity when boundary changes

affect historical enrollment data stream Projections lose validity when education policy changes (i.e..

magnet schools, program changes at site, etc.) affect historical enrollment data stream at individual school sites

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When you need something more…

…Then it’s time to get into the dirty details of projections.

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What goes into a projection?

Short & Medium Term

Current Students

Future Students

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Factors that effect enrollment

Drop outs In and out Migration

Private and Charter Schools Immigration

Changing Birth rates Residential construction of demolition Student Yield from new construction Transfer students (Open enrollment, Inter,

Intra)

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A More Detailed Methodology

Study Area Concept Small areas to analyze demographic

changes over time independent of attendance boundary shifts

Projections at this level can be used to shift boundaries for analyzing opening/closing of school sites

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Map of Study Areas

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A Projection Methodology

Graduate 12th grade; move up other gradesIncrease/decrease future K classes based upon changes in births within the last 5 yearsAdd enrollment generated by new constructionModify enrollment as grades progress each year based upon a cohort factor calculated from historical enrollment in areas with no new construction (addresses in/out migration, drop-outs and private school movement)

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Geocoding Students

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Housing tracts

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Housing Tract Data

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Student YieldEach dot represents a family, there are 83 students represented by these dots.

There are 96 parcels in this small area.

83/96 = .86

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Migration Analysis

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Study Area ProjectionNo migration factors and no new housing

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Study Area ProjectionSmall negative Migration factor and no new housing

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Study Area ProjectionSmall negative Migration factor and new housing

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District Projection

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Birthrates +5 years

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Birthrates +5 years

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Enrollment Projections – Kindergarten

Del Norte “County” Unified School DistrictYear Live Births Year +5 CBEDS Percentage

1992 358 1997 351 98.04%1993 351 1998 346 98.58%1994 343 1999 320 93.29%1995 310 2000 312 100.65%1996 333 2001 296 88.89%1997 324 2002 342 105.56%1998 316 2003 357 112.97%1999 298 2004 336 112.75%2000 316 2005 359 113.61%2001 275 2006 282 102.70%2002 288 2007 307 106.76%

Source: DataQuest and Center for Health Statistics

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Enrollment Projections – Kindergarten

Other School Districts in County or Area

Percentage of CBEDS to County Live Births ie. 20% if 5 districts

in County and equal in size

Information by Zip CodeSame analysis as with County Data except by Zip

Source: Center for Health Statistics

DataQuest information

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Class Exercise

Demonstration of Excel Spreadsheet

Calculate enrollment projections based on information provided

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Procedures for Boundary Changes

• Student Housing Committee• Steering Committee• Full Committee

• Public Presentations• Initial presentation• Detailed presentation

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Procedures for School Closures

• Student Housing Committee• Steering Committee• Full Committee

• Public Presentations• Initial presentation• Detailed presentation

• All heck breaking loose……….

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Example of Public Presentation

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The Clovis West Area

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Millerton New Town Development

520 elementary students projected for the Clovis West Area in the next 6 yrs

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Copper River Development

324 elementary students projected for the ClovisWest Area in the next 6 yrs.

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CUSD Master Facility Plan from 2006-2012

• Clovis North HS & Granite Ridge IS open in fall of 2007

• Rank Elementary open in fall of 2007• Dakota/Armstrong School opens in fall of 2009 • Future Sites under consideration after 2012

– Millerton New Town– NW Urban Village (2 sites in the Clovis General Plan)– Shields/Locan Site– 4th Ed Center Site

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The Solution:• 850 new students are projected from

developments in the Clovis West Area over the next 6 years

• There is space available in the existing elementary schools in the CW Area to handle this growth:– CW Elementary Enrollment capacity: 4950– Current enrollment in CW Elem. Schools: 3955– Spaces available for new students: 995

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Student Housing Decision Timeline

8/06 SH Planning Steering Committee begins meeting

10/06 District Elementary Student Housing Committee Meetings begin &

continue until recommendation

11/06 & 08 Community Forums to intro the process

2/07 Student Housing Recommendation is posted on the District website

3/07 2nd Community Forums are held4/07 Recommendation is made to Supt.

Cabinet5/07 Supt. Cabinet makes recommendation to

the Gov. Board6/07 Board approves boundary changes 8/08 New elementary boundaries go into effect

for the Clovis and Clovis West Areas

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The Student Housing Committee Process

• Who serves on the Student Housing Steering Committee?

• Who serves on the District Student Housing Committee?

• Who serves on the Superintendent’s Cabinet?

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Guiding PrinciplesNovember 1, 2006

The following “Guiding Principles” will serve as a “filter” for boundary change options to address future growth in the CW Area:Attempt to:

• Utilize all existing school facilities to their enrollment capacity

• Accommodate future enrollment growth within existing elementary school facilities before considering building new schools

• Maintain existing secondary boundaries

• Create boundaries that will last at least 6 years

• Optimize academic and co-curricular opportunities for students at all existing elementary schools

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Community Input Tonight

• Your elementary Principal will facilitate discussion of the following topics:

– What are your question and/or concerns about the Boundary Change Process?

– What would you like the 2006 Student Housing Committee to consider during their study?

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Community Connection to the Student Housing

Process1. District Web Site2. Elementary School News Letters3. CUSD Today4. Clovis Independent & Fresno Bee5. School Site SART

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Thank You! Thank You!

Our Next Community Forum will be in March 2007

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Resources

DecisionInsite – Process paperMichael Dodge’s Spreadsheet

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