Everett SD Enrollment Projections (by Les Kendrick, consultant)

Everett School DistrictEnrollment Trends and Projections

Prepared byWilliam L (“Les”) KendrickWilliam L. ( Les ) Kendrick

(Consultant)December 2011

IntroductionEnrollment and Demographic Trends

Enrollment in the Everett school district declined by 62 students between October 2010 yand October 2011. And similar to last year the overall number was very close to the projection, but elementary enrollment came in lower than expected and high school enrollment slightly higher. Middle school enrollment was also slightly lower than projected.

The trends of the past 2 years point to the slowing growth trends that are affecting all of Snohomish County. The unemployment rate is higher in Snohomish and Pierce County than in King County and new home construction and sales are well below the trends that were seen between 2000 and 2007 As a result K 12 public school enrollment in Snohomish Countybetween 2000 and 2007. As a result K-12 public school enrollment in Snohomish County declined by over 700 students in the past year. The only districts that saw a net gain in their enrollment were Mukilteo, Lake Stevens and Lakewood. Even private school enrollment in the county was down between 2009 and 2010.

At the elementary level, the District is beginning to see the effects of the decline in new home construction and sales. Although the District did see continuing enrollment growth in Woodside and Cedar Woods, other south end neighborhoods, like Mill Creek and saw declines

Enrollment Trends Dec 2011

in their enrollment after several years of strong growth. Elementary enrollments in the central and northern parts of the District were mostly in line with projections.

District Enrollment TrendDistrict Enrollment TrendOctober HeadcountState P223 Reports

1564516295 16500 16823 16895 17457 17977 18251 18340 18239 18486 18337 18229 18094 18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649

16000

18000

20000

10000

12000

14000

2000

4000

6000

8000

0

2000

Oct-91

Oct-92

Oct-93

Oct-94

Oct-95

Oct-96

Oct-97

Oct-98

Oct-99

Oct-00

Oct-01

Oct-02

Oct-03

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-11


Snohomish County Public SchoolsSnohomish County Public Schools Enrollment Trend

9314296709

99992 102512 103539106360 107092 106303 106648 107925 108586 108251 109036 109136 109517 108442

105038

90000

100000

110000

120000

11.0%

13.0%

15.0%

50000

60000

70000

80000

5.0%

7.0%

9.0%

2.5%

3.8% 3.4%2.5%

1.0% 1.4% 1.3%0.7%

-0.7%0.3%

1.1%0.6%

-0.3%0.7%

0.1% 0.4%

-0.9%20000

30000

40000

50000

-1 0%

1.0%

3.0%

%

0

10000

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-3.0%

1.0%

Enrollment Percent Change


Net Change in Enrollment for Snohomish County School

157

‐220

Sultan

Monroe

Net Change in Enrollment for Snohomish County School Districts Oct‐10 to Oct‐11

‐117

‐138

‐139

‐157

Granite Falls

Edmonds

Stanwood

Sultan

Net Change for the E ti C t 733

‐21

‐63

‐72

‐97

Darrington

Everett

Marysville

Arlington Entire County = -733

21

0

‐12

L k d

Skills Center

Index

Snohomish

g

179

78

25

‐500 ‐400 ‐300 ‐200 ‐100 0 100 200 300

Mukilteo (W/O Skills CNTR)*

Lake Stevens

Lakewood


Private School EnrollmentPrivate School Enrollment Snohomish County

Note: Data Not Available for 2003. (Numbers Include Pre-School)

6053 6291 61577000

4437 4527 4749 4796 4932 5051 52785611 5582 5466 5364 5531

5164 5332

60535653

5351

4000

5000

6000

2000

3000

4000

0

1000

2000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010



Si il l ll h hi h h l l l b h d ThiSimilar to last year, enrollment at the high school level was better than expected. This trend has been seen in a number of Districts throughout the Puget Sound Region. It may well reflect the impact of a poor economy (with more students opting to stay in school) or the beneficial effects of dropout prevention programs. In either case, this trend is projected to

i i h f l i i l d li h hi h h l l l h j dcontinue into the future resulting in less decline at the high school level than was projected a few years ago.

Since 2007 population and K-12 enrollment growth has been concentrated in King p p g gCounty. There is less movement overall, due to the collapse of the real estate housing bubble and fewer people are opting to move out of King County into either Pierce or Snohomish County. K-12 enrollment in the outlying counties is likely to continue to decline or show very little improvement until this trend changes. Over the next few years, most of the K-12 p g y ,enrollment growth in Snohomish County is likely to be the result of larger birth cohorts entering the school system. Growth from job gains or new housing construction are likely to be minimal at least through 2012 and possibly longer.



A th l bi th h t t th h l E tt d th di t i t iAs these larger birth cohorts enter the schools Everett and many other districts in Snohomish County are likely to see an increase in their enrollment. But there are reasons to be cautious. The number of births in Snohomish County was lower than expected in 2010 and the birth rate was the lowest in well over a decade. A look at fertility rates (the number of hild b t i th i hild b i ) t th t bchildren born to women in their child-bearing years) suggests that some women may be

delaying having children, perhaps due to the difficult economy. If this trend were to continue enrollment growth in the county might be less than expected out to 2020.

In Everett specifically, enrollment is projected to decline slightly in 2012, before growing again between 2013 and 2021. In addition to the usual considerations of population and housing growth and their effect on enrollment, this year’s report also considers data from the recently completed Census to help project future enrollment in the District.y p p p j

The following sections provide charts and discussion of recent and future demographic trends in births, population and housing. After this discussion, District and school projections are presented


are presented.

Net Change in 4 County Public School Enrollment: King, Pierce, Snohomish, and Kitsap Combined

(Over Half‐a‐Million Public Schools Students in 4 Counties)( )P223 Reported OCTOBER Enrollment

Numbers are Updated and Changed Periodically; The Trend is More RELEVANT than the Specific Numbers

12427

100398860 8727

12618

9911

9000110001300015000

8727

6517

4714

23973152

21703000500070009000

1439 1189 855

2397

376 916

-742

2170

656 12172070

3000-100010003000

-3000

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

2001

-02

2002

-03

2003

-04

2004

-05

2005

-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

200

8-09

200

9-10

201

0-11


Net Change in Enrollment by CountyO t 2010 t O t 2011Oct 2010 to Oct 2011

3,5314,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1 000

1,500

2,000

0

500

1,000

‐405 ‐323

‐733‐1,000

‐500

King Kitsap Pierce Snohomish


Percent of K-12 Enrollment by CountyP223 October Enrollment

49.5%

King County9.0%

Kitsap

47.5%

48.0%

48.5%

49.0%

3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%

46.5%

47.0%

Oct91

Oct92

Oct93

Oct94

Oct95

Oct96

Oct97

Oct98

Oct99

Oct00

Oct01

Oct02

Oct03

Oct04

Oct05

Oct06

Oct07

Oct08

Oct09

Oct10

Oct11

0.0%1.0%2.0%

Oct91

Oct92

Oct93

Oct94

Oct95

Oct96

Oct97

Oct98

Oct99

Oct00

Oct01

Oct02

Oct03

Oct04

Oct05

Oct06

Oct07

Oct08

Oct09

Oct10

Oct11

20 0%

20.5%

21.0%

Snohomish

24.4%

24.6%

Pierce

17.5%

18.0%

18.5%

19.0%

19.5%

20.0%

23 6%

23.8%

24.0%

24.2%

17.0%

Oct91

Oct92

Oct93

Oct94

Oct95

Oct96

Oct97

Oct98

Oct99

Oct00

Oct01

Oct02

Oct03

Oct04

Oct05

Oct06

Oct07

Oct08

Oct09

Oct10

Oct11

23.4%

23.6%

Oct91

Oct92

Oct93

Oct94

Oct95

Oct96

Oct97

Oct98

Oct99

Oct00

Oct01

Oct02

Oct03

Oct04

Oct05

Oct06

Oct07

Oct08

Oct09

Oct10

Oct11


Population GrowthPopulation GrowthThe population of Snohomish County grew by over 100,000 residents in the past

decade according to the latest census. But the number of residents added between 2000 and 2010 was less than the number added between 1990 and 2000. And in the past 5 years county growth has been slower than it was in the previous 5 years (according to data from the State of Washington). This slowing growth rate has had a clear effect on school enrollment.

According to the latest census, the population of the Everett School District grew from 112,145 residents in 2000 to 129,842 residents in 2010. This represents an annual growth rate of 1.6%. This is very close to the projected rate of growth predicted by the Puget Sound Regional Council for neighborhoods in and around the District (they predicted an annual rateRegional Council for neighborhoods in and around the District (they predicted an annual rate of 1.8%).

Despite gains in the population, the District’s share of the county population has i d t f i l t t l l th t d d P j ti f d it i lik l th tremained at a fairly constant level over the past decade. Projecting forward, it is likely that

Everett’s share of the county population will decline, since other parts of the county are projected to grow at a faster rate. Using various estimates of future growth (PSRC forecasts, housing data, and the Census) the District’s share of the county population is projected to d li f 18 2% i 2010 t h b t 17 7% t 17 9% b 2020 Ch i


decline from 18.2% in 2010 to somewhere between 17.7% to 17.9% by 2020. Changes in population growth in Everett are generally correlated with changes in the enrollment trends.

Snohomish County Population EstimatesSnohomish County Population EstimatesSource: Census and OFM State of Washington

689 314

699,329705,895

713,335 717,000

700,000

720,000

740,000

13.0%

15.0%

629,287

639,942648,778

661,346

676,126

689,314

640,000

660,000

680,000

7.0%

9.0%

11.0%

606,024

617,864

2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.4%1.9% 2.2% 2.0%

1.5%0 9% 1 1%

580,000

600,000

620,000

1 0%

3.0%

5.0%

0.9% 1.1%0.5%

540,000

560,000

Census2000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Census2010

2011(OFM

Estim.)

-1.0%

1.0%

)

Population Percent Increase


Population of the Everett School District(With Alternative Growth Estimates)

146 158146 823160 000 146,158

129,842112,620

88,641

146,823

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

0

20,000

Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 2020 (Based onCensus Analysis)

2020 (Based onPSRC

Neighborhood


NeighborhoodForecasts)

Population GrowthPopulation GrowthUsing data from the 1990, 2000 and 2010 Census it is possible to make some reasonable

forecasts of future population growth within the District. To do this we consider the net change in 5 year age groups from one census to the next for the Everett School District population. For example, the size of the aged 20-24 population in 2010 is compared to the size of the aged 10-14 population in 2000 to see how much growth or decline occurred over decade. Over the course of the decade some residents in a particular age group will move out, others will move in, and others will stay put, and everyone will be 10 years older. The ratio between the age groups (Aged 20-24 in 2010 divided by Age 10-14 in 2000) gives some indication of where there is growth and decline due to movement in and out of the District. The table on page 17 shows the trends in Everett for the past two census periods.

Using the ratios from the past two census periods it is possible to predict future population growth. At the lowest ages (0-4 and 5-9) growth is predicted based on the ratio of children in that age group to women in their child-bearing years using the most recentchildren in that age group to women in their child bearing years using the most recent averages. And at the highest age group (Over 85 years) the population is projected based on the ratio of the 85 and over group to the number of residents ages 70 and above from the previous census. This allows us to account for changes in migration as well as the higher death rates that occur when people age.


occu w e peop e age.

Population GrowthPopulation GrowthUsing this analysis, the population of the Everett School District is expected to increase

from 129,845 residents in 2010 to 146,823 residents in 2020. The Age 5-19 population within the District is expected to increase from 25,026 residents in 2010 to 27,291 residents in 2020, a gain of over 2000. The K-12 public school population in Everett has traditionally been about 75% of the Age 5-19 population in the District, but it has been trending down in recent years. Assuming these trends continue the District’s enrollment in 2020 is projected to just over 20,000 students (see the Table on page 18).

This forecast is slightly lower than some of the forecasts that have been created in the past few years, looking at housing and population growth, but it is in line with those trends. Inpast few years, looking at housing and population growth, but it is in line with those trends. In addition, if we look at the correlation between Everett’s share of the county population and Everett’s share of the K-12 county population we reach a similar conclusion. Since the mid-1990’s there has been a strong correlation between change in Everett’s share of the county population and changes in it’s share of the county K-12 population (see chart on page 19)population and changes in it s share of the county K 12 population (see chart on page 19) Assuming that the county K-12 public school population grows to approximately 117,472 students by 2020 (based on births and projected population growth), we would predict that Everett would enroll about 17% of this population (based on changes in the District’s share of the county population). This would result in an enrollment of 19,970 students by 2020.


t e cou ty popu at o ). s wou d esu t a e o e t o 9,970 stude ts by 0 0.

Projected Population of the Everett School District Using Census Data

Everett School District Rates of ChangeMale Females Totals Male Rates Female Rates Project 20201990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 90‐00 00‐10 Wght Avg 90‐00 00‐10Wght Avg Males Females Total

0 to 4 yrs 3 939 4,000 4 529 3 622 3,980 4362 7 561 7 980 8 891 5 606 4 718 10 324

Using Census Data

0 to 4 yrs 3,939 4,000 4,529 3,622 3,980 4362 7,561 7,980 8,891 5,606 4,718 10,3245 to 9 Yrs 3,859 3,925 4,316 3,322 3,865 4154 7,181 7,790 8,470 4,594 4,472 9,06610‐14 yrs 2,942 4,455 4,161 3,058 4,145 4045 6,000 8,600 8,206 1.13 1.04 1.06 1.14 1.02 1.05 4,711 4,433 9,14415‐19 yrs 2,579 4,175 4,311 2,722 3,730 4039 5,301 7,905 8,350 1.08 1.10 1.09 1.12 1.05 1.06 4,740 4,341 9,08120‐24 2,856 4,895 4,881 2,835 3,670 4023 5,691 8,565 8,904 1.66 1.10 1.24 1.20 0.97 1.03 4,559 3,926 8,48525 29 4 434 4 105 5 299 4 041 3 785 4899 8 475 7 890 10 198 1 59 1 27 1 35 1 39 1 31 1 33 5 472 5 305 10 77725‐29 4,434 4,105 5,299 4,041 3,785 4899 8,475 7,890 10,198 1.59 1.27 1.35 1.39 1.31 1.33 5,472 5,305 10,77730‐34 4,473 4,830 4,932 4,195 4,370 4528 8,668 9,200 9,460 1.69 1.01 1.18 1.54 1.23 1.31 4,918 4,964 9,88235‐39 4,016 5,315 4,837 4,202 4,875 4644 8,218 10,190 9,481 1.20 1.18 1.18 1.21 1.23 1.22 6,244 6,011 12,25540‐44 3,522 5,015 4,983 3,156 4,685 4648 6,678 9,700 9,631 1.12 1.03 1.05 1.12 1.06 1.08 5,088 4,816 9,90445‐49 2,769 4,045 5,184 2,344 4,300 5020 5,113 8,345 10,204 1.01 0.98 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.03 4,718 4,782 9,50050 54 1 734 3 490 4 987 1 854 3 630 4848 3 588 7 120 9 835 0 99 0 99 0 99 1 15 1 03 1 06 4 955 4 810 9 76550‐54 1,734 3,490 4,987 1,854 3,630 4848 3,588 7,120 9,835 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.15 1.03 1.06 4,955 4,810 9,76555‐59 1,504 2,440 4,135 1,585 2,415 4181 3,089 4,855 8,316 0.88 1.02 0.99 1.03 0.97 0.99 5,299 4,881 10,18060‐64 1,440 1,720 3,096 1,517 1,720 3473 2,957 3,440 6,569 0.99 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.95 4,424 4,638 9,06265‐69 1,266 1,200 2,047 1,802 1,625 2137 3,068 2,825 4,184 0.80 0.84 0.83 1.03 0.88 0.92 3,469 3,700 7,16970‐74 1,239 935 1,254 1,415 1,300 1582 2,654 2,235 2,836 0.65 0.73 0.71 0.86 0.92 0.90 2,257 3,194 5,45175 79 762 1 065 937 1 277 1 440 1347 2 039 2 505 2 284 0 84 0 78 0 80 0 80 0 83 0 82 1 598 1 771 3 36975‐79 762 1,065 937 1,277 1,440 1347 2,039 2,505 2,284 0.84 0.78 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.82 1,598 1,771 3,36980‐84 417 595 662 897 1,245 1128 1,314 1,840 1,790 0.48 0.71 0.65 0.88 0.87 0.87 888 1,373 2,26185 and ove 253 555 712 793 1,080 1,521 1,046 1,635 2,233 0.23 0.27 0.26 0.30 0.38 0.36 634 514 1,148

44,004 56,760 65,263 44,637 55,860 64,579 88,641 112,620 129,842 74,174 72,649 146,823Average Male Female


/W 0‐4 18.6% 15.9% 16.9% 17.1% 15.8% 16.3% 16.4% 16.1%/W 5‐9 18.6% 15.3% 15.5% 16.0% 15.0% 15.0% 15.4% 15.0%

Projected K-12 Population in the Everett School District Using Census DataEverett School District Using Census Data

Forecast

1990 2000 2010 2020

Total Population 88,641 112,620 129,842 146,823

Population Change 23,979 17,222 16,981

% 5‐19 20.9% 21.6% 19.3% 18.6%

Age 5 19 18 482 24 295 25 026 27 291 Age 5‐19 18,482 24,295 25,026 27,291

Everett Public Schools K‐12 18,239 18,711 20,150

Public k‐12 % of Age 5‐19 75.1% 74.8% 73.8%

0.7% ‐2.3% ‐0.7%

K‐12 % of Total Population 16.2% 14.4% 13.7%


Everett’s Share of the TOTAL County Population Compared to its Share of the K-12 County PopulationCompared to its Share of the K 12 County Population

19 00%

19.50%

18 00%

18.50%

19.00%

17 00%

17.50%

18.00%

16.00%

16.50%

17.00%

15.50%

%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

% of County Population % of County K-12


% of County Population % of County K 12

Population GrowthPopulation GrowthAs a final check on future enrollment two simple linear models were created to predict

future enrollment in the school district. The first model uses county births and Everett’s projected share of the county population to predict future enrollment. This model predicts that the District will enroll just over 19,000 students by 2015 and 20,175 students by 2020. This is very close to the earlier estimates, though it should be pointed out that this model assumes increasing births between now and 2015 (see the next section on births).

A final linear model uses the projected population for the District (rather than looking at the District’s share of the county population) and births to predict future enrollment. This model predicts that enrollment will be at 20,125 students by 2020.model predicts that enrollment will be at 20,125 students by 2020.

All of these models look at total enrollment rather than enrollment by grade. As a result they do not allow us to look at enrollment by grade level. The final district projection models l k t d t d t d t di t ll t Th ti t f th llook at grade-to-grade trends to predict enrollment. The estimate from these more general models are used to “tweak” the forecasts so that they align with future estimates of population growth, and specifically K-12 population growth within the District.


Linear Projection Models Based on Population and BirthsLinear Projection Models Based on Population and Births

Different Models1) Li M d l B d E tt' Sh f th C t P l ti d Bi th1) Linear Model Based on Everett's Share of the County Population and Births

Projections2010 2011 2015 2020 2025

Projected Enrollment 18 711 18 649 19 092 20 175 20 550Projected Enrollment 18,711 18,649 19,092 20,175 20,550Share of County Pop. 18.1% 18.2% 18.1% 17.9% 17.7%

County Births 8924 9070 9001 9811 10,553

2) Linear Model Based on Births and Projected Population Growth in the Everett School District2010 2011 2015 2020 2025

Projected Enrollment 18 711 18 649 19 599 20 125 21 009Projected Enrollment 18,711 18,649 19,599 20,125 21,009District Population 129,842 131,530 138,504 146,823 153,550

County Births 8924 9070 9001 9811 10553K‐12 % of Pop 14 4% 14 2% 14 2% 13 7% 13 7%


K‐12 % of Pop. 14.4% 14.2% 14.2% 13.7% 13.7%

Births and EnrollmentBirths and EnrollmentThe number of births in Snohomish County in 2010 was 9001. The last time the births y

were this low was in 2005. In addition, the birth rate in the county (births per 1000 residents) was 11.8, the lowest number in well over a decade. If this trend should continue births between 2011 and 2016 (classes eligible for school between 2016 and 2021) could well be lower than expected. p

At this point in time, there is reason to believe that these lower trends are temporary, most likely related to a weak economy in which couples delay having children. Over time the number of women in their “peak” child bearing years (25 39) will reach a critical massnumber of women in their peak child bearing years (25-39) will reach a critical mass. Unless women start having many fewer children, or the county experiences a large net loss of women in their child-bearing years, births are likely to increase between now and 2020. In addition, continuing population growth in the county will insure that even if birth rates are lower overall population growth will result in more births in the coming decade than in thelower, overall population growth will result in more births in the coming decade than in the previous decade. As a result K-12 enrollment in the county is likely to increase between now and 2020. The chart on page 27 shows the projected increase in the county K-12 population based on general population growth and the future births.


Snohomish County BirthsNext Year’s Kindergarten Cohort

9570 9795923710000

12000

6646 68017390

78628286 8224 8128 8062 7833 7629

7921 8110 8352 8496 8545 87038344 8592 8675 8924 9070 9237 9001

6000

8000

4000

6000

0

2000

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2


Actual and Projected Births From 5 years Prior to the Enrollment Year

Cohorts for 2011 to 2015 are Based on Actual BirthsCohorts for 2016 to 2025 are based on Projected Birthsj

10000

12000Births in 2005 – 5 years earlier

6000

8000

0000

4000

6000

0

2000

Births 8924 9070 9570 9795 9237 9001 9152 9360 9486 9648 9811 9971 10137 10305 10476 10533

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Births 8924 9070 9570 9795 9237 9001 9152 9360 9486 9648 9811 9971 10137 10305 10476 10533


Births and EnrollmentBirths and EnrollmentEverett’s share of the county births (kindergarten enrollment compared to births from 5 y ( g p

years prior to the enrollment year) declined for the second straight year. With the benefit of hindsight, it now appears that the marked increase in Everett’s share of county births between 2005 and 2009 was largely due to the marked increase in new housing growth during this period. With the exception of these years, Everett’s share of both county births and city births p p y , y y(kindergarten enrollment considered as a percentage of the births in the city of Everett) have both been on a downward trend since the 1990’s. This trend is expected to continue into the next decade as the population ages.

Even though Everett’s share of county and city births is likely to decline some over time, kindergarten and elementary enrollment should still grow in the coming decade due to larger birth cohorts. Everett will just enroll a smaller portion of a larger birth pie. For this reason alone Everett’s enrollment is expected to grow between now and 2020 even if newreason alone, Everett s enrollment is expected to grow between now and 2020, even if new home construction and sales remain at their currently low levels.


Everett: K Enrollment as a Percent ofEverett: K Enrollment as a Percent of Snohomish County Births

76297921 8110 8352 8496 8545 8703

8344 8592 8675 8924 9070

8000

9000

10000

30.00%

35.00%

16 5%

18.0%17.4%16.8%16.5%16.3%16.8%16.4%16.5%16.6%17.3%5000

6000

7000

20.00%

25.00%

16.5% 16.2%

2000

3000

4000

5 00%

10.00%

15.00%

0

1000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.00%

5.00%

Births 5 Years Previous Pct of Cohort


Births 5 Years Previous Pct of Cohort

Projected K-12 Snohomish County Public School EnrollmentBased on Births and a Forecast of theBased on Births and a Forecast of theCounty Population Using Census Data

130 000140,000150,000160,000170,000

109,457 112,562 117,472

90,000100,000110,000120,000130,000

40,00050,00060,00070,00080,000

010,00020,00030,00040,000

2010 E ll 2015 20202010 Enroll 2015 2020


Housing and Population GrowthHousing and Population GrowthAccording to the latest census data the Everett School District added 8,853 housing units

(single family and multi-family) in the past decade. Not all of these units are occupied however. Data from the 2000 and 2010 Census shows that the District housing stock increased from 42,880 occupied units in the 2000 Census to 50,140 occupied units in the 2010 census, a gain of 7,260 units. But in 2010 6% of the housing units in the Everett School District were vacant.

The number of public school children per household has also declined in the past decade from about 43 students per 100 homes in 2000, to approximately 37 students per 100 households in 2010. This reflects the aging of the population in certain neighborhoods throughout the g g p p g gDistrict. Enrollment growth in the past decade was almost certainly driven primarily by K-12 population growth in new housing development. As development has slowed down, enrollment growth has slowed as well. Based on the number of houses added, and the District student generation rates from 2010, we can estimate that the District gained approximately 280 students a g , g pp yyear from new housing in the past decade. And given that estimate we can also surmise that the District lost about 240 students a year from existing housing due to graduation and migration. This resulted in a net gain of about 40 students a year, which over 10 years resulted in an enrollment increase of about 400 students (between 2000 and 2010)


( )

Occupied Housing Units and Students Per Household2000 and 2010 Census Data2000 and 2010 Census Data

70 0001.00

42,88050,140

50,000

60,000

70,000

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

18,239 18,711

0.430.37

20,000

30,000

40,000

0 20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0

10,000

0.00

0.10

0.20

Census 2000 2010 Census

Occupied Housing Units 42,880 50,140

Everett Enrollment Oct P223 18,239 18,711

Students Per House 0.43 0.37


Housing and Population GrowthHousing and Population GrowthAs the previous discussion makes clear new housing development has been an

important factor in Everett’s recent growth. And the latest data on new home construction and p gsales shows that the numbers continue to drop from the trends that were seen between 2000 and 2007. The latest data from New Home Trends suggests that sales of new construction single family homes in 2011 are on track to be the lower any of the previous 4 years (Page 32).

These trends are not expected to improve much in the coming year, and long range projections of housing growth show a mixed picture. Forecasts from the Puget Sound Regional Council for Everett neighborhoods suggest that the number of homes added by 2020 will be similar to the number added in the past decade (just over 8000 units single family andwill be similar to the number added in the past decade (just over 8000 units single family and multi-family). But data from New Home Trends shows that the number of new construction homes either for sale, or planned for future construction and sale, is just over half that total. There will no doubt be more projects proposed in future years, but as of today, it does not appear that new home sales and construction in the next decade will match the pace of theappear that new home sales and construction in the next decade will match the pace of the previous decade. As a result, it seems likely that future growth in K-12 enrollment will be driven primarily by increases in births and population, and to lesser degree by new home construction and sales in different neighborhoods throughout the District. At the school level, new home construction will likely be a larger factor influencing how much growth or decline


new home construction will likely be a larger factor, influencing how much growth or decline is seen in various neighborhoods.

Quarterly Sales of New ConstructionSi l F il H I th E tt S h l Di t i tSingle Family Homes In the Everett School District

2007-2011Source: New Home Trends Database

100

120

40

60

80

0

20

40

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Single Family 94 114 66 65 78 75 51 38 56 86 77 70 74 86 37 28 70 49 32 14

Q1 2007

Q2 2007

Q3 2007

Q4 2007

Q1 2008

Q2 2008

Q3 2008

Q4 2008

Q1 2009

Q2 2009

Q3 2009

Q4 2009

Q1 2010

Q2 2010

Q3 2010

Q4 2010

Q1 2011

Q2 2011

Q3 2011

Q4 2011


Sales of NEW CONSTRUCTION Single Family Homes by Year in the Everett School District

2007-2011*Source: New Home Trends DatabaseSource: New Home Trends Database

400

500

339

229289

251

165 190200

300

400

165

0

100

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Single Family Homes Sold Projected

*The 2011 estimate is as of November 19th 2011. The forecast of 190 is based on the trends of the


past few years and the most recent quarterly sales figures.

Proposed Housing Development:Proposed Housing Development:Number of Units Projected for the Next Decade

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

New Home Trends Data Pipeline Data

Puget Sound Regional Council Neighborhood

5,679

7,898

6 000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000 Forecast

4,501

1 000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

1,000

Based on PSRC Neighborhoods Proposed for FutureConstruction and Sale

Proposed Including "On‐hold"and "Withdrawn"


Enrollment ProjectionsEnrollment ProjectionsThe previous sections suggest that enrollment in the Everett School District is likely in

increase in the coming decade though perhaps by a lesser amount than was assumed inincrease in the coming decade, though perhaps by a lesser amount than was assumed in previous year’s reports. Estimates for 2020 suggest that enrollment will be just above or just below the 20,000 mark. But if birth rate trends continue to be low, and new home construction and sales continue at a slow pace, it is quite possible that enrollment could be relatively flat in the coming decade even with the increase in birthsthe coming decade even with the increase in births.

The final forecast model was based on projected births, assumptions about the District’s share of the birth cohort going forward (forecast to be lower over time) and grade to grade trends as an initial first step. These numbers were then adjusted to take account of projected changes in housing and population growth so that the enrollment over time would align with projected change in the demographic trends within the District, discussed in the previous sections. Low and High range alternatives were created to show what might happen if population and K-12 growth were to be lower or higher than projected in the original model.


Low, Medium, and High Range Forecasts 2012 20212012-2021

Based on Kindergarten Trends, Grade-to-Grade growth and an adjustment for projected future changes in population growth and housing.

22000

23000

20000

21000

22000

17000

18000

19000

16000

17000

Low Grow th 18828 18711 18649 18444 18443 18325 18341 18414 18446 18574 18679 18832 18948

M di (R d d) 18828 18711 18649 18608 18745 18754 18892 19087 19230 19463 19665 19905 20090

Oct_09 Oct_10 Oct_11 Oct_12 Oct_13 Oct_14 Oct_15 Oct_16 Oct_17 Oct_18 Oct_19 Oct_20 Oct 21


Medium (Recommended) 18828 18711 18649 18608 18745 18754 18892 19087 19230 19463 19665 19905 20090

High Grow th 18828 18711 18649 18856 19170 19346 19634 19971 20242 20598 20906 21242 21508

Everettt Enrollment History (October Headcount) Projectiony ( ) jBirth Data Projected Births

Birth Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Everett Births 2154 2150 2102 2007 2197 2276 2338 2450 2556 2260 2390 2334 2387 2419 2460 2502 2543

% of Cohort 64.6% 66.8% 66.7% 74.4% 71.2% 64.5% 62.7% 60.0% 60.9% 65.4% 65.3% 64.9% 64.4% 64.1% 63.1% 62.3% 61.3%County Births 8545 8703 8344 8592 8675 8924 9070 9570 9795 9237 9001 9152 9360 9486 9648 9811 9971Pct of Cohort 16.3% 16.5% 16.8% 17.4% 18.0% 16.5% 16.2% 15.4% 15.9% 16.0% 17.3% 16.6% 16.4% 16.3% 16.1% 15.9% 15.6%

Revised Projections Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21

K 1391 1436 1403 1494 1565 1468 1467 K 1470 1558 1478 1561 1515 1538 1550 1552 1558 15591 1457 1497 1467 1452 1549 1595 1496 1 1503 1501 1590 1509 1605 1558 1581 1594 1596 16022 1395 1434 1491 1490 1425 1502 1542 2 1459 1494 1492 1581 1511 1607 1560 1583 1596 15983 1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477 3 1523 1455 1490 1488 1588 1518 1614 1567 1590 16033 1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477 3 1523 1455 1490 1488 1588 1518 1614 1567 1590 16034 1364 1401 1418 1462 1445 1427 1392 4 1450 1509 1441 1476 1484 1584 1514 1610 1563 15865 1344 1398 1395 1426 1481 1425 1424 5 1389 1441 1499 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515 1611 15646 1403 1335 1425 1383 1425 1499 1410 6 1422 1382 1434 1492 1432 1477 1485 1585 1515 16117 1430 1419 1370 1424 1380 1407 1471 7 1393 1415 1375 1427 1492 1432 1477 1485 1585 15158 1443 1430 1443 1370 1426 1379 1403 8 1469 1383 1405 1365 1424 1489 1429 1474 1482 15829 1490 1829 1822 1492 1389 1432 1396 9 1420 1480 1393 1415 1385 1444 1510 1450 1495 15039 1490 1829 1822 1492 1389 1432 1396 9 1420 1480 1393 1415 1385 1444 1510 1450 1495 1503

10 1461 1512 1464 1476 1438 1365 1401 10 1364 1381 1439 1355 1386 1356 1414 1479 1420 146411 1678 1373 1373 1666 1384 1365 1313 11 1360 1318 1334 1390 1318 1348 1319 1376 1439 138112 1144 1055 1049 1155 1421 1444 1457 12 1386 1428 1384 1401 1470 1394 1425 1395 1455 1522

Total 18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649 18608 18745 18754 18892 19087 19230 19463 19665 19905 20090

Change 301 143 35 170 85 -117 -62 -41 137 9 138 195 142 233 203 240 185Percent 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% -0.6% -0.3% -0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9%

Enrollment by Level Enrollment by LevelK-5 8346 8585 8627 8777 8965 8820 8798 K-5 8794 8958 8990 9047 9180 9290 9404 9421 9514 9512 6-8 4276 4184 4238 4177 4231 4285 4284 6-8 4284 4180 4214 4284 4348 4398 4391 4544 4582 4708


9-12 5773 5769 5708 5789 5632 5606 5567 9-12 5530 5607 5550 5561 5559 5542 5668 5700 5809 5870

Everettt Enrollment History (October Headcount) Low ProjectionEverettt Enrollment History (October Headcount) Low ProjectionBirth Data Projected Births


% of Cohort 64.6% 66.8% 66.7% 74.4% 71.2% 64.5% 62.7% 60.0% 60.9% 65.4% 65.3% 64.9% 64.4% 64.1% 63.1% 62.3% 61.3%County Births 8545 8703 8344 8592 8675 8924 9070 9570 9795 9237 9001 9152 9360 9486 9648 9811 9971P t f C h t 16 3% 16 5% 16 8% 17 4% 18 0% 16 5% 16 2% 15 0% 15 7% 15 8% 17 2% 16 4% 16 3% 16 2% 15 9% 15 7% 15 5%Pct of Cohort 16.3% 16.5% 16.8% 17.4% 18.0% 16.5% 16.2% 15.0% 15.7% 15.8% 17.2% 16.4% 16.3% 16.2% 15.9% 15.7% 15.5%

Revised 3 yr Projections Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Wght Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21

K 1391 1436 1403 1494 1565 1468 1467 K 1433 1542 1463 1546 1500 1523 1534 1537 1542 15441 1457 1497 1467 1452 1549 1595 1496 1 1488 1449 1559 1479 1574 1527 1550 1562 1565 15702 1395 1434 1491 1490 1425 1502 1542 2 1445 1465 1426 1534 1466 1560 1514 1536 1548 15513 1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477 1508 1427 1447 1408 1526 1458 1552 1506 1528 15403 1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477 3 1508 1427 1447 1408 1526 1458 1552 1506 1528 15404 1364 1401 1418 1462 1445 1427 1392 4 1436 1479 1399 1419 1390 1507 1440 1533 1487 15095 1344 1398 1395 1426 1481 1425 1424 5 1376 1413 1455 1376 1406 1377 1493 1427 1519 14736 1403 1335 1425 1383 1425 1499 1410 6 1412 1360 1396 1438 1365 1395 1366 1481 1416 15077 1430 1419 1370 1424 1380 1407 1471 7 1384 1395 1344 1380 1427 1354 1384 1355 1470 14058 1443 1430 1443 1370 1426 1379 1403 8 1459 1365 1376 1325 1366 1413 1341 1370 1341 14559 1490 1829 1822 1492 1389 1432 1396 9 1413 1462 1368 1379 1337 1379 1426 1354 1383 1354

10 1461 1512 1464 1476 1438 1365 1401 10 1358 1367 1415 1324 1344 1303 1344 1390 1319 134811 1678 1373 1373 1666 1384 1365 1313 11 1353 1305 1314 1360 1282 1301 1261 1301 1345 127712 1144 1055 1049 1155 1421 1444 1457 12 1379 1414 1363 1373 1431 1349 1369 1327 1369 1415

Total 18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649 18444 18443 18325 18341 18414 18446 18574 18679 18832 18948

Change 301 143 35 170 85 -117 -62 -205 -1 -118 16 74 31 129 105 153 115Percent 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% -0.6% -0.3% -1.1% 0.0% -0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.6%

Enrollment by Level Enrollment by LevelK-5 8346 8585 8627 8777 8965 8820 8798 K-5 8686 8775 8749 8762 8862 8952 9083 9101 9189 91876-8 4276 4184 4238 4177 4231 4285 4284 6-8 4255 4120 4116 4143 4158 4162 4091 4206 4227 4367


6 8 4276 4184 4238 4177 4231 4285 4284 6 8 4255 4120 4116 4143 4158 4162 4091 4206 4227 4367 9-12 5773 5769 5708 5789 5632 5606 5567 9-12 5503 5548 5460 5436 5394 5332 5400 5372 5416 5394

Everettt Enrollment History (October Headcount) High ProjectionEverettt Enrollment History (October Headcount) High ProjectionBirth Data Projected Births


% of Cohort 64.6% 66.8% 66.7% 74.4% 71.2% 64.5% 62.7% 60.0% 60.9% 65.4% 65.3% 64.9% 64.4% 64.1% 63.1% 62.3% 61.3%County Births 8545 8703 8344 8592 8675 8924 9070 9570 9795 9237 9001 9152 9360 9486 9648 9811 9971P t f C h t 16 3% 16 5% 16 8% 17 4% 18 0% 16 5% 16 2% 16 1% 16 1% 16 2% 17 5% 16 7% 16 6% 16 5% 16 3% 16 0% 15 8%Pct of Cohort 16.3% 16.5% 16.8% 17.4% 18.0% 16.5% 16.2% 16.1% 16.1% 16.2% 17.5% 16.7% 16.6% 16.5% 16.3% 16.0% 15.8%

Revised Projections Oct-05 Oct-06 Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-21

K 1391 1436 1403 1494 1565 1468 1467 K 1544 1573 1493 1577 1531 1553 1565 1568 1574 15751 1457 1497 1467 1452 1549 1595 1496 1 1518 1592 1622 1539 1638 1590 1613 1626 1628 16342 1395 1434 1491 1490 1425 1502 1542 2 1474 1524 1599 1629 1556 1656 1608 1631 1644 16463 1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477 1538 1485 1536 1611 1653 1579 1680 1632 1655 16683 1395 1419 1453 1453 1500 1403 1477 3 1538 1485 1536 1611 1653 1579 1680 1632 1655 16684 1364 1401 1418 1462 1445 1427 1392 4 1465 1539 1486 1537 1623 1665 1591 1693 1644 16675 1344 1398 1395 1426 1481 1425 1424 5 1403 1470 1545 1491 1553 1640 1683 1608 1711 16626 1403 1335 1425 1383 1425 1499 1410 6 1436 1410 1478 1553 1506 1569 1657 1700 1624 17287 1430 1419 1370 1424 1380 1407 1471 7 1407 1444 1417 1486 1569 1521 1585 1674 1717 16418 1443 1430 1443 1370 1426 1379 1403 8 1484 1411 1448 1421 1498 1582 1533 1598 1687 17319 1490 1829 1822 1492 1389 1432 1396 9 1435 1510 1436 1473 1456 1535 1621 1571 1637 1728

10 1461 1512 1464 1476 1438 1365 1401 10 1378 1410 1483 1411 1457 1440 1518 1603 1554 161911 1678 1373 1373 1666 1384 1365 1313 11 1374 1345 1376 1447 1386 1432 1415 1491 1575 152712 1144 1055 1049 1155 1421 1444 1457 12 1400 1457 1427 1459 1545 1480 1529 1511 1592 1682

Total 18395 18538 18573 18743 18828 18711 18649 18856 19170 19346 19634 19971 20242 20598 20906 21242 21508

Change 301 143 35 170 85 -117 -62 207 315 175 288 337 272 356 308 336 267Percent 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% -0.6% -0.3% 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3%

Enrollment by Level Enrollment by LevelK-5 8346 8585 8627 8777 8965 8820 8798 K-5 8942 9183 9281 9384 9554 9683 9740 9758 9856 98526-8 4276 4184 4238 4177 4231 4285 4284 6-8 4327 4265 4343 4460 4573 4672 4775 4972 5028 5100


6 8 4276 4184 4238 4177 4231 4285 4284 6 8 4327 4265 4343 4460 4573 4672 4775 4972 5028 5100 9-12 5773 5769 5708 5789 5632 5606 5567 9-12 5587 5722 5722 5790 5844 5887 6083 6176 6358 6556

School ProjectionsSchool ProjectionsProjections by school and grade level were also completed and balanced to the overall

District medium range projection. School grade level projections are generally less accurate than g p j g p j g yDistrict grade level projections due to the smaller numbers used to estimate trends, and because program changes and student choice can affect the allocation of students independent of demographic trends. To the extent possible these projections take account of waiver information, especially at the entry level grades. At the other grades it is assumed that students who attend a p y y g gschool outside of their neighborhood will remain at that school in subsequent years.

School enrollments were projected based on a consideration of the current enrollment, each school’s share of the entry grade enrollment (K 6 and 9) and based on a consideration of howschool s share of the entry grade enrollment (K, 6, and 9) and based on a consideration of how continuing students move up through the grades. At the secondary level, consideration was also given to how students feed from elementary into middle school, and from middle school into high school. The trends of the past 3 years were used to allocate future enrollment for the period between 2012 and 2016 These numbers were then adjusted to account for projected changes inbetween 2012 and 2016. These numbers were then adjusted to account for projected changes in population and housing for different service areas. These adjustments were based on projected changes in new home development derived from an examination of New Home Trends data and projected population growth for neighborhoods obtained from the Puget Sound Regional Council. The following pages provide a summary of the projections by school A separate document


The following pages provide a summary of the projections by school. A separate document contains the detailed numbers by school and grade level.

Projection Summary by School Medium Growth Projections OCT_06 OCT_07 OCT_08 OCT_09 OCT_10 OCT_11 OCT_12 OCT_13 OCT_14 OCT_15 OCT_16

Cedar Wood 734 528 497 500 518 548 561 592 634 660 663 Emerson 599 587 596 584 602 599 594 600 604 605 613 Forest View 392 480 519 535 538 544 588 602 597 607 Garfield 405 392 360 369 336 331 329 330 338 334 337 Hawthorne 430 442 461 470 507 467 461 458 459 458 465 Jackson 354 327 344 364 325 359 360 374 374 383 397 Jefferson 513 487 506 502 498 545 559 563 556 557 561 Jefferson 513 487 506 502 498 545 559 563 556 557 561

Lowell 471 479 462 493 449 476 481 481 483 486 492 Madison 474 469 470 449 451 464 459 462 460 462 464 Mill Creek 589 673 691 678 707 684 690 691 673 665 678 Monroe 577 582 599 572 504 470 450 438 425 434 432 Penny Creek 768 691 720 766 724 725 724 724 721 710 731y Silver Firs 512 460 495 526 560 519 516 529 518 517 519 Silver Lake 571 484 453 483 485 481 486 506 516 521 527 View Ridge 533 562 555 570 556 492 489 478 456 440 438 Whittier 429 437 426 410 381 415 405 419 427 434 446 Woodside 580 577 598 645 626 631 637 676 697 740 765 Oth 47 59 64 65 56 54 50 47 48 44 46 Other 47 59 64 65 56 54 50 47 48 44 46

Totals 8586 8628 8777 8965 8820 8798 8794 8958 8990 9047 9180

Numbers may not add to exact totals due to rounding


Projection Summary by School Medium Growth ProjectionsProjection Summary by School Medium Growth Projections OCT_06 OCT_07 OCT_08 OCT_09 OCT_10 OCT_11 OCT_12 OCT_13 OCT_14 OCT_15 OCT_16

Eisenhower 716 759 852 893 885 882 870 829 829 811 813 Evergreen 937 965 1058 1064 1067 1045 1011 978 952 969 951 G 1023 1069 678 666 674 734 787 775 787 825 869 Gateway 1023 1069 678 666 674 734 787 775 787 825 869

Heatherwood 842 805 853 886 946 919 924 933 986 1009 1048 North 645 616 707 693 681 677 664 644 636 646 641 Other 20 20 29 30 33 27 28 21 25 25 26 Totals 4183 4234 4177 4232 4286 4284 4284 4180 4214 4284 4348

CHS 1814 1804 1842 1787 1872 1856 1858 1884 1840 1847 1842 EHS 1706 1663 1608 1558 1482 1423 1393 1377 1362 1361 1357 JHS 1908 1890 1994 1929 1904 1926 1920 1976 1982 1991 1992 Sequoia 271 295 282 313 303 324 312 318 311 310 317 Other 71 59 63 44 45 38 47 51 55 52 51 Totals 5770 5711 5789 5631 5606 5567 5530 5607 5550 5561 5559

Totals 18539 18573 18743 18828 18712 18649 18608 18745 18754 18892 19087 Totals 18539 18573 18743 18828 18712 18649 18608 18745 18754 18892 19087

Numbers may not add to exact totals due to rounding


Documents

Everett SD Enrollment Projections (by Les Kendrick, consultant)