OSFC Enrollment Projections, 2013

8/13/2019 OSFC Enrollment Projections, 2013

1/42


2/42


3/42


4/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

3

6,72(8219:;

XB2-I1,324+)-LG/+/122-1,**(2-+5:)+H)**827)+'*+,+1'4N+B2-/(821,G*)728)1+B5:+B2'(,/-+,G-2H

B,/5)-L'4+)7)+0:'-E+B24B'-L2)-B,/52B,*E4,(I,5)+),-J

Y-'EE)+),-:

'-0

,G

+B2

G,**,H)-L

G'4+,15

4,/*E

4'/52

'5)L-)G)4'-+

4B'-L2

)-

I1,324+2E

5+/E2-+

2-1,**(2-+5M

D,/-E'10'E3/5+(2-+5 62H54B,,*,I2-)-L5 .B'-L25Z'EE)+),-5)-I1,L1'(,GG21)-L5 #1254B,,*I1,L1'(5 .B'-L2)-L1'E24,-G)L/1'+),- Y-+2125+1'+25Z/-2(I*,0(2-+5B)G+5 ['L-2+Z.B'1+21Z#1)7'+254B,,*,I2-)-L,14*,5/12 \,-)-L4B'-L25 P-I*'--2E-2HB,/5)-L'4+)7)+0 #*'--2E:8/+-,+8/)*+:B,/5)-L$87),/5*0:421+')-G'4+,154'-82L'/L2E'-EI*'--2EG,1G'182++21+B'-,+B215J ?,1)-5+'-42:)+('082

12*'+)72*05+1')LB+G,1H'1E+,L'+B21B,/5)-LE'+'G1,(*,4'*8/)*E21512L'1E)-L+B2+,+'*-/(821,G*,+5)-

'I*'--2E5/8E)7)5),-'-E4'*4/*'+2+B2I,+2-+)'*5+/E2-+0)2*EJ &,H2721:I*'--)-L G,14B'-L25 )-+B2

/-2(I*,0(2-+1'+2:'-EB,H+B252('02)+B218,,5+,112E/42I/8*)454B,,*2-1,**(2-+:I1,725(,12

E)GG)4/*+J Y-'-04'52:)+)52552-+)'*+,L'+B21'H)E27'1)2+0,G)-G,1('+),-)-I12I'1'+),-G,1I1,E/4)-L

2-1,**(2-+I1,324+),-5J

XB2-*,,N)-L'B2'E'+'54B,,*E)5+1)4+O52-1,**(2-+,721+B2-2V++H,:G)72:,1+2-02'15:)+)5B2*IG/*+,

'II1,'4B +B2 I1,4255 G1,( ' L*,8'* I215I24+)72J ?,1 2V'(I*2M &,H ('-0 -2H B,(25 B'72 822-

4,-5+1/4+2E 2'4B 02'1] &,H ('-0 8)1+B5 B'72 ,44/112E 2'4B 02'1 )- 12*'+),- +, +B2 125)E2-+

I,I/*'+),-]Y5

B,/5)-L

2VI21)2-4)-L

'+/1-,721

^

)G5,:

HB'+

)5

+B2

4,(I,5)+),-

,G

G'()*)25

(,7)-L

)-Z,/+] W12(,12,1 *255 5+/E2-+5 '++2-E)-LI1)7'+2 54B,,*,182)-LB,(254B,,*2E] XB'+B'5 +B2

/-2(I*,0(2-+1'+2+12-E822-,721+B2I'5++2-02'15] XB'+-2H2E/4'+),-'*I,*)4)25'12)-I*'42-,H

+B'+4,/*E'GG24+5+/E2-+2-1,**(2-+G)L/125]

%B2 E'+' 52+5 L2-21'+2E G1,( F/25+),-5 5/4B '5 +B252 B'72 *2E +, +B2 E272*,I(2-+ ,G L2-21'*

(2+B,E,*,L)25+,I1,324+G/+/125+/E2-+2-1,**(2-+5J %B20'12'5G,**,H5M


5/42


6/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

5

6,72(8219:;

+&8),9B

"-1,**(2-+I1,324+),-54'-'*5,82E2+21()-2E80'-'*0K)-L+B2B,/5)-LE'+'G,1+B2'12'5+B'+('N2/I

'54B,,*

E)5+1)4+J

d)2*E

G'4+,15

4'-

82

25+'8*)5B2E

80

4,(I'1)-L

+B2

B)5+,1)4

4B'-L2

)-

2-1,**(2-+

G1,(

02'1 +, 02'1 E)7)E2E 80 +B2 +,+'* -/(821 ,G 8/)*E)-L ,1 ,44/I'-40 I21()+5 )55/2EJ ?,1 2V'(I*2: )G

5+/E2-+ 2-1,**(2-+ B'5 )-412'52E 80 'II1,V)('+2*0 =


7/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

6

6,72(8219:;

%/9@0/*8'/*,&9$9/-C),)

&,/5)-LE'+''*5,E1)725+B2*'-E5'+/1'+),-'-'*05)52-1,**(2-+(2+B,E,*,L0J Y-'12'5HB212+B212)5'

B)LB1'+2

,G

E272*,I(2-+

'-E

+B2

G/+/12

E272*,I(2-+

I'++21-5

)-

+B2

'12'

'12

4*2'1:

'a8/)*E

,/+b

542-'1), 4'- 82 E272*,I2EJ %B2 542-'1), +'N25 )-+, 4,-5)E21'+),- +B2 12(')-)-L '412'L2 +, 82

E272*,I2E:I*'--2E1'+2,G4,(I*2+),-:K,-)-LI,*)4)25:E2-5)+0I21'412:+0I2,GB,/5)-L:'-E1'+),5,G

54B,,*'L24B)*E12-I21B,/52B,*E+0I2J %B)5(2+B,E )5I'1+)4/*'1*0/52G/* )-'12'52VI21)2-4)-L1'I)E

L1,H+BJ

?(&B'/D1,."9E&'F/*,&90C)*(F)

XB)*2-,+'(2+B,E,*,L0:+B2-22E G,182++21+,,*5'-E2'5)21('-)I/*'+),-,GE'+'B'5 *2E +,'-2H

)-E/5+10 5+'-E'1E )-I*'--)-L^eYA _e2,L1'IB)4 Y-G,1('+),- A05+2(5`J eYA +24B-,*,L0 '**,H5 54B,,*

E)5+1)4+5+,F/)4N*0'-'*0K24,/-+*255E'+'52+5)-4*/E)-L8)1+BE'+':B,/5)-L)-G,1('+),-:'-E2-1,**(2-+

5+'+)5+)45J

XB2- I')12E H)+B 2-1,**(2-+ I1,324+),-5: eYA 824,(25 '- )-7'*/'8*2 )-G,1('+),-('-'L2(2-+ '-E

E24)5),-('N)-L +,,*J $G+2-:4,/-+0,14)+0,GG)425'12'*12'E0 )(I*2(2-+)-LeYA+24B-,*,L0'-EE'+'

4'-825B'12E'-E2VI'-E2E'(,-L+B252,1L'-)K'+),-5)-+B2E)5+1)4+J eYA+'8*25'-E('I5'12)-4*/E2E

H)+B)-+B)512I,1+)**/5+1'+)-LI,I/*'+),-:'L2:'-E)-4,(225+)('+25'-EI1,324+),-5J

%B24,B,1+5/17)7'*H'5+B2I1)('10(2+B,E/52E)-+B2E272*,I(2-+,G+B22-1,**(2-+I1,324+),-5G,1

+B2?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+J

School District

Industrial

ExistingHousing

ProposedHousing

ProposedHousing

ProposedHousing

ExistingHousing


8/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

7

6,72(8219:;

+"0354"7$%;#45%%


9/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

8

6,72(8219:;

Grade 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Pre-K (special needs) 72 56 72 65 87 73 70 71 71 49

K 494 563 545 481 567 538 466 445 450 457

1 514 514 615 559 526 574 573 523 502 521

2 529 528 534 620 571 542 566 580 534 513

3 533 543 534 547 659 579 550 573 588 549

4 539 550 561 523 558 659 579 568 592 612

5 571 545 541 560 543 568 654 569 578 597

6 578 580 558 559 574 544 572 663 580 577

7 569 613 600 579 582 582 553 578 679 584

8 582 589 613 604 585 586 586 560 585 679

9 689 625 648 654 649 646 640 620 599 578

10 665 671 589 602 656 600 601 612 605 577

11 599 636 662 572 587 650 582 546 557 557

12 660 568 610 653 560 588 635 541 544 558Pre-K - 12 Total 7,594 7,581 7,682 7,578 7,704 7,729 7,627 7,449 7,464 7,408

Ungraded 20 23 17 0 0 23 24 28 24 16

Career Tech Off-Site 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 2

JVS Full-Time 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 70 45

Grand Total 7,614 7,604 7,699 7,578 7,704 7,752 7,651 7,559 7,562 7,471

Grade 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Pre-K (ECE, special needs) - 5 72 56 72 65 87 73 70 71 71 49

K - 6 3,758 3,823 3,888 3,849 3,998 4,004 3,960 3,921 3,824 3,826

7 - 8 1,151 1,202 1,213 1,183 1,167 1,168 1,139 1,138 1,264 1,263

9 - 12 2,613 2,500 2,509 2,481 2,452 2,484 2,458 2,319 2,305 2,270

Pre-K - 12 Total 7,594 7,581 7,682 7,578 7,704 7,729 7,627 7,449 7,464 7,408Ungraded 20 23 17 0 0 23 24 28 24 16

Career Tech Off-Site 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 2

Grand Total 7,614 7,604 7,699 7,578 7,704 7,752 7,651 7,479 7,492 7,426Source: Ohio Department of Education, EMIS; Forest Hills Local School District

*full-time JVS enrollment is not included in the projected enrollment figures.

Historical Enrollment by Grade Group

Forest Hills Local School District

Historical Enrollment

Source: Ohio Department of Education, EMIS; Forest Hills Local School District


%B2G,**,H)-L+'8*25)**/5+1'+2+B2C)5+1)4+O52-1,**(2-+B)5+,10G1,(;


10/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

9

6,72(8219:;

75


11/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

10

6,72(8219:;

Grade 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Pre-K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

K 0 0 4 4 2 2 4 2 4 2

1 1 1 4 5 2 3 2 4 2 2

2 0 0 2 4 4 3 2 3 8 0

3 0 0 2 3 4 7 3 2 4 3

4 0 0 0 2 2 2 4 0 7 6

5 1 1 5 1 2 3 2 6 3 1

6 0 0 1 1 0 2 6 3 11 27 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 3 7 10

8 5 5 9 3 8 1 2 6 7 5

9 7 7 13 19 9 21 10 9 12 6

10 8 8 11 11 10 9 9 9 11 6

11 10 10 16 17 12 14 12 17 16 8

12 12 12 11 8 13 18 14 11 12 4

Ungraded 4 4 4 4 6 4 2 5 0 0

Grand Total 49 49 85 84 75 90 73 80 104 55Source: Ohio Department of Education, EMIS; Forest Hills Local School District


Community School Enrollment

A)-42;


12/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

11

6,72(8219:;

Grade 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Pre-K 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

K 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 6 1

1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0

2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 14 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0

5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1

7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0

8 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 2 1

9 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 4

10 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 0

11 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 0

12 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 2

Ungraded 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Grand Total 0 0 4 6 4 4 7 11 19 10Source: Ohio Department of Education, EMIS; Forest Hills Local School District


Open Enrollment - OUT

5=;#;#45%%


13/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

12

6,72(8219:;

%"I;J"43+2$3$

P+)*)K'+),- ,G *)72 8)1+B E'+' )5 124,((2-E2E HB2- I1,324+)-L G/+/12 N)-E21L'1+2- 2-1,**(2-+5 '5 )+

I1,7)E25'B2*IG/*,721'**+12-EJ %B2 *)728)1+B4,/-+5'12/52E )-E2+21()-)-L'8)1+B+,N)-E21L'1+2-

5/17)7'*1'+),J %B)51'+), )E2-+)G)25+B2I2142-+'L2,G4B)*E12-8,1- )-'12I1252-+'+)72'12'HB,'++2-E

N)-E21L'1+2-)-+B2C)5+1)4+G)7202'15*'+21J %B25/17)7'*1'+),5G,18)1+B+,N)-E21L'1+2-'5H2**'5L1'E25

==;4'-82G,/-E*'+21)-+B)512I,1+J

%B2$B),C2I'1+(2-+,G&2'*+B_$C&`E'+'H'12B,/52I1,7)E25)-G,1('+),-'8,/+*)728)1+B272-+5G,1

$B), 125)E2-+5J Y-G,1('+),- '8,/+ 272-+5 ,44/11)-L ,/+5)E2 ,G $B), +, $B), 125)E2-+5 )5 )-4*/E2EJ

Y-G,1('+),-'8,/+272-+5,44/11)-L)-5)E2$B),+,-,-$B),125)E2-+5)5-,+)-4*/E2EJ

C'+')5

'11'-L2E

80

+B2

125)E2-42

,G

+B2

(,+B21J

?,1

2V'(I*2:

)G'(,+B21

*)725

)-

#,H2**:

C2*'H'12

.,/-+08/+E2*)7215B218'80 )-.,*/(8/5: ?1'-N*)-.,/-+0: +B28)1+B )5 4,/-+2E )-#,H2**:C2*'H'12

.,/-+0J

%B2-/(821,G*)728)1+B5)5124,1E2E80M

A+'+2 .,/-+0 .)+0Z%,H- .2-5/5%1'4+ \)I.,E2 WEE1255_-,+'7')*'8*2+,+B2I/8*)4`@)728)1+B 4,/-+5'12E)GG212-+ G1,( *)728)1+B 1'+25J %B2 *)728)1+B 4,/-+ )5 +B2'4+/'*-/(821,G *)72

8)1+B5J W8)1+B1'+2)5+B2-/(821,G8)1+B5I21=:


14/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

13

6,72(8219:;

Year 42226 45230 45244 45255

Total #

of Live

Births

Total #

of Live

Births

Used

1997 99 402 347 260 1,108 1,009

1998 95 399 337 271 1,102 1,007

1999 121 416 368 319 1,224 1,1032000 100 438 394 297 1,229 1,129

2001 92 411 352 294 1,149 1,057

2002 83 395 376 291 1,145 1,062

2003 94 433 341 267 1,135 1,041

2004 84 380 353 268 1,085 1,001

2005 86 366 327 229 1,008 922

2006 81 405 366 252 1,104 1,023

2007 91 429 344 272 1,136 1,045

2008 88 399 348 210 1,045 957

2009 91 375 347 244 1,057 966

2010 94 343 326 251 1,014 9202011* 88 333 337 217 975 887


Live Birth Count by Zip Code

1997-2011*

Source: Ohio Department of Health, Statistical Analysis Unit

* provisional

%B2 G,**,H)-L 4B'1+ '-E L1'IB )-4*/E2 +B2 *)72 8)1+B 4,/-+5 G,1 K)I 4,E25 9;;;S: 9R;>


15/42


16/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

15

6,72(8219:;

Hamilton

CountyState of O hio

Per Capita Income $29,197 $25,618

Median Household Income $49,218 $48,071

Persons Below Poverty 15.9% 14.8%

2000 Census 2010 Census

Hamilton County 845,303 802,374

Anderson Township 43,857 43,446

Newtown Village 2,420 2,672

Total Population

Source: ODOD Policy Research & Strategic Planning Office, August 2011

General Demographic Information

Source: USCensus, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates

2;


17/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

16

6,72(8219:;

A,/1425,GE'+')-4*/E2M

A/II*2(2-+'10A/17205,G+B2.2-5/5D/12'/ D/12'/,G@'8,1A+'+)5+)45OkD@Al@,4'*W12'P-2(I*,0(2-+A+'+)5+)45 D@A$44/I'+),-'*"(I*,0(2-+A+'+)5+)45 !"#$PAW PJAJD/12'/,G+B2.2-5/5O./112-+#,I/*'+),-A/1720 6'+),-'*#*'--)-LW55,4)'+),-C'+'A217)42D2*,H)5'*)5+,GE2G)-)+),-5'5+B20'II2'1,-+B2PJAJ.2-5/5D/12'/H285)+2:+,')E)-)-+21I12+'+),-,G

+B2G,**,H)-L+'8*25'-E('I5J

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


18/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

17

6,72(8219:;

State of Ohio

2011 Population

Estimate

2016 Population

Projection

Total Population 11,538,102 11,595,906

Ages 0-4 710,393 717,415

Ages 5-9 744,959 739,354

Ages 10-14 772,909 775,032

Ages 15-19 818,772 767,040

Total Ages 0-19 3,047,034 2,998,840

Source: ESRI BIS

%B2 G,**,H)-L +'8*25 )**/5+1'+2 +B24/112-+25+)('+25'-ER02'1I,I/*'+),-I1,324+),-58'52E,-8*,4N

L1,/I5+B'+4,(I1)52+B25+'+2'-E54B,,*E)5+1)4+:)-E)4'+)-L'12'5,G4/112-+'-EI1,324+2EL1,H+BJ %B2

+'8*25B'72822-E272*,I2E+,E2+21()-252*24+2E'L2L1,/II1,324+),-5'-EI1,324+),-5G,1B,/52B,*E

)-4,(2:G'()*0

5)K2:

'-E

G'()*0

)-4,(2J

%B2 +,+'*I,I/*'+),- )- +B2 A+'+2,G$B), )5 ==:R>U:=


19/42

!"#$!%?,125+&)**5@,4'*A4B,,*C)5+1)4+

18

6,72(8219:;

!&'()*+,--)%&./-0.1&&-2,)*',.*MNOO=&D8-/*,&9

;)*,F/*(

MNOP=&D8-/*,&9='&L(.*,&9

%,+'*#,I/*'+),- 9S:URQ 9S:U>

WL25=R=Q >:>RT >:=;

Documents

OSFC Enrollment Projections, 2013