phuong phap nghien cuu khoa hoc TrinhBayC8.ppt

7/28/2019 phuong phap nghien cuu khoa hoc TrinhBayC8.ppt

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CHNG 8: PHN TCH S LIUCHNG 8: PHN TCH S LIU

Muc ch cua chng nay la phai a ra cach the hienn gian ve viec phan tch so lieu nh the nao. ap ng

muc tieu tren, cac noi dung trnh bay trong chng naybao gom:8.1. Ma hoa va lu gi cac quan sat

. .8.3. Lap bang cheo trong phan tch so lieu8.4. Phan tch hoi quy tuyen tnh n8.5. Phan tch hoi quy a bien8.6. Cac bien gia trong phan tch hoi quy8.7. Gii thieu quy trnh x ly so lieu nh lng trongnghien cu xay dng ch so canh tranh cap tnh (CPI)


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8.18.1--Ma hoa va lu gi cac quan satMa hoa va lu gi cac quan sat

ThngThng caccac dd lieulieu cc lulu gigi theotheo dangdang mamatrantran..

MaMa hoahoa coco nghangha lala nhnh roro caccac loailoai vava chch nhnhchch soso chocho moimoi loailoai..

ChangChang hanhan nhnh mama soso theotheo gii,gii, trongtrong oo nn lala11,, namnam lala haihai;; hayhay mama so so theotheo vungvung:: vungvung BacBacbobo lala 11,, TrungTrung bobo lala 22,,NamNam bobo lala 33


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8.18.1--Ma hoa va lu gi cac quan satMa hoa va lu gi cac quan sat HoacHoac mama soso theotheo thangthang oo mcmc oo ongong tnhtnh coco

77 mcmc oo:: hoanhoan toantoan ongong tnhtnh lala 11,, ongong tnhtnhphanphan lnln lala 22,, ongong tnhtnh motmot phanphan lala 33,, khongkhongonon tnhtnh lala 44 khonkhon onon tnhtnh hanhan lnln lala 55

khongkhong ongong tnhtnh 11 phanphan tnhtnh lala 66,, ratrat khongkhongongong tnhtnh lala 77.. NgayNgay naynay coco nhieunhieu chngchng trnhtrnh phanphan memmem ee

xx lyly vava lulu gigi so so lieulieu ieuieu tratra nhnh chngchngtrnhtrnh SPSS,SPSS, ACESS,ACESS, SASSAS


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Phn tch nh lngPhn tch nh lng

8.8.22--Phan tch mot bienPhan tch mot bien PhanPhan tchtch thngthng dada vaovao motmot dangdang naonao oo cuacuaphanphan loailoai vava soso sanhsanh..

Gia s chung ta muon biet s hu xe hi theoGia s chung ta muon biet s hu xe hi theoho trong tong so dan c hay tong so ho. Moi hoho trong tong so dan c hay tong so ho. Moi ho

c s huc s hu Cac quan sat theo mau ngau nhien vi kchCac quan sat theo mau ngau nhien vi kch

thc mau n=100 ho co the c phan loai theothc mau n=100 ho co the c phan loai theophan bo tan suat mot bien theo bieu 8.1 diphan bo tan suat mot bien theo bieu 8.1 diayay


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x=So xehi shu

h=tan so tuyetoi=so lng hotheo s hu xe hi

h/n=quan hetan suat

Ty le

0 3 0,03 3

1 45 0 45 45

BNG 8.1: S hu xe hi theo ho trong mau ngau nhien

2 37 0,37 37

3 11 0,11 114 4 0,04 4

Tong so 100 1,00 100


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8.2-Phan tch mot bien (tt) Ngoai ra, t ket qua khao sat tren, nh vao

may tnh co the tnhcac so trung bnh, so trungv, phng sai, o chenh lech chuan, he so bienthien. ay la cac ch so kiem nh thong ke ve

ket qua khao sat e am bao o t n cay cua solieu thu thap. So trung bnh:

nx x i=


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8.28.2--Phan tch mot bien (tt)Phan tch mot bien (tt)--Cac kiemCac kiem

nh thong kenh thong ke Trong cong thc tren, xTrong cong thc tren, xii la gia tr quan sat thla gia tr quan sat th

i, n la so lan quan sat.i, n la so lan quan sat. Trung bnh so hoc (mean)Trung bnh so hoc (mean)lalax la ky hieu cua so trung bnh trong th dux la ky hieu cua so trung bnh trong th duna ban 1 68 tc trun bnh co 1 68 xe hi trenna ban 1 68 tc trun bnh co 1 68 xe hi tren1 ho1 ho

Tan so h va tan suat fTan so h va tan suat fc tnh bang he so h/n,c tnh bang he so h/n,

trong o h la tan so tuyet oi (trong th du cuatrong o h la tan so tuyet oi (trong th du cuachung ta h so ho theo so xe s huchung ta h so ho theo so xe s hu


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8.28.2--Phan tch mot bien (tt)Phan tch mot bien (tt)--Cac kiemCac kiemnh thong kenh thong ke

So trung vSo trung v (median) la gia tr nam gia cua giay(median) la gia tr nam gia cua giay

soso Neu gia tr quan sat la leNeu gia tr quan sat la le th so th t cua soth so th t cua so

trung v (median) la (n+1)/2. Trong th du naytrung v (median) la (n+1)/2. Trong th du nay

(0,1,2,3,4), so trung v nam v tr th 3 co gia(0,1,2,3,4), so trung v nam v tr th 3 co giatr =2tr =2 Neu so gia tr quan sat la chanNeu so gia tr quan sat la chan, so trung v la so, so trung v la so

nam gia hai gia tr trung tam. Gia s so biennam gia hai gia tr trung tam. Gia s so bienquan sat x trong th du cua chung ta la t 0 enquan sat x trong th du cua chung ta la t 0 en5 (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5), khi o so trung v trong th du5 (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5), khi o so trung v trong th du

nay co gia tr la (2+3)/2= 2,5.nay co gia tr la (2+3)/2= 2,5.


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nh thong kenh thong ke KhoangKhoang bienbien thienthien RR == XmaxXmax--Xmin,Xmin, thethe hienhien oo

onon nhnh cuacua dayday soso lieulieu (khoang(khoang bienbien thienthien cangcangnhonho thethe hienhien dayday soso atat oo onon nhnh cao,cao, ngcngclailai khoangkhoang bienbien thienthien lnln thethe hienhien aiai lnglng

ngaungau nhiennhien bb phanphan tan)tan) XminXmin lala giagia trtr nhonho nhatnhat cuacua quanquan satsat trongtrong thth

dudu naynay ==00,,000000;; XmaxXmax lala giagia trtr lnln nhatnhat cuacuaquanquan satsat trongtrong thth dudu nay=nay=44,,000000

NhNh vayvay khoangkhoang bienbien thienthien trongtrong thth dudu naynay R=R=

44,,000000--00,,000000==44,,000000


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8.2-Phan tch mot bien (tt)-Cac kiem

nh thong ke o lech chuan (standard deviation). o lech

chuan la cong cu e so sanh s ong nhat cuahai day phan phoi, day nao co o lech chuannho c coi nha ong nhat hn

o lech chuan la can bac hai cua phng saicua mau quan sat. Phng sai cua mau quan satc tnh theo cong thc sau:

1

)(2

=

n

xx ix


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8.2-Phan tch mot bien (tt)-Cac kiem

nh thong ke o lech chuan trong th du cua

chung ta = 0,836. c lng so trung bnh tong the

2

=

a vao o ec c uan co e c ng sotrung bnh cua tong the Da vao cac kiem nh thong ke e co the rut

ra rang xu hng tm c qua kch thc maula 100 ho (th du tren) co u e ai dien cho xuthe cua toan bo so ho hay khong?.


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nh thong kenh thong ke GiaGia ss chocho rangrang soso xexe hihi theotheo hoho lala phanphan bobo

chuan,chuan, tctc 9595%% giigii hanhan oo tintin cay,cay, soso trungtrungbnhbnh xexe hihi chocho tongtong thethe toantoan bobo NN ho,ho, kyky hieuhieusoso trungtrung bnhbnh chocho tongtong thethe lala ,, vava coco thethe tnhtnh

cc quaqua bangbang phanphan bobo StudentStudent tt Vi xac suat o tin cay cho trc, tra bang phanVi xac suat o tin cay cho trc, tra bang phan

bo student t, tm thaybo student t, tm thay co hai gia tr tren vaco hai gia tr tren vadi, gia tr tren =1,8513; gia tr di =1,5087.di, gia tr tren =1,8513; gia tr di =1,5087.V vay chung ta co the ket luan rang d oanV vay chung ta co the ket luan rang d oantot nhat chotot nhat cho la 1,68 xe hi cho mot gia nhla 1,68 xe hi cho mot gia nh


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nh thong kenh thong ke Gia s chung ta can phai kiem nh gia thuyet HGia s chung ta can phai kiem nh gia thuyet H: c: c

lng so trung bnh tong thelng so trung bnh tong the =1,55 xe cho mot ho. Ly=1,55 xe cho mot ho. Ly

do s dung gia tr gia thuyet gia tr 1,55 co the cdo s dung gia tr gia thuyet gia tr 1,55 co the cbiet qua thc te t day tong the tng tbiet qua thc te t day tong the tng t Neu nh ta khon co thon tin trc chun ta se sNeu nh ta khon co thon tin trc chun ta se s

dung hai la chon ladung hai la chon la khac 1,55 vakhac 1,55 va ln hn 1,55. Xacln hn 1,55. Xacsuat tin cay =0,95, khoang tin cay tnh c t 1,5 ensuat tin cay =0,95, khoang tin cay tnh c t 1,5 en2,0, s dung khoang tin cay e kiem nh gia thuyet,2,0, s dung khoang tin cay e kiem nh gia thuyet,

gia tr 1,55 la nam trong khoang tin cay la chon, nhgia tr 1,55 la nam trong khoang tin cay la chon, nhvay khong can phai loai bo gia thuyet H. Neu gia trvay khong can phai loai bo gia thuyet H. Neu gia trgia thuyet tm c nam ngoai khoang 1,5gia thuyet tm c nam ngoai khoang 1,5--2,0 tc gia2,0 tc gia

thuyet H b loai bo.thuyet H b loai bo.


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8.38.3--Lap bang cheoLap bang cheo ThTh dudu chungchung tata cancan nghiennghien cucu khakha nangnang quanquan

hehe giagia trnhtrnh oo giaogiao ducduc cuacua khachkhach hanghang vava ssquanquan tamtam veve sansan phampham naonao oo

SoSo lieulieu coco thethe cc laplap bangbang cheocheo cc trnhtrnh

baybay trongtrong bangbang 88..22 didi ayay.. TrongTrong oo TrnhTrnh oogiaogiao ducduc cc phanphan theotheo haihai mcmc (cao(cao vava thap)thap)vava mcmc oo quanquan tamtam sansan phampham aa cc phanphan

thanhthanh haihai loailoai (cao(cao vava thap)thap)..


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Bng 8.2: Bang cheo the hien moi quan

he cua hai bien

Mc o quantam sanham

Trnh o giao duc TongThap Cao

Cao 53% (40) 48% (60) 50%(100)

Thap 47% (35) 52% (65) 50%(100)Tong 100%

(75)

100%

(125)

100%

(200)


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8.38.3--Lap bang cheoLap bang cheo --Giai thch bGiai thch bng 8.2ng 8.2

TrongTrong bbngng 88..22,, mcmc oo quanquan tamtam sansan phamphamcc coicoi lala bienbien phuphu thuocthuoc vava trnhtrnh oo giaogiao ducduclala bienbien ococ laplap

KetKet quaqua dongdong 11 bbngng ss thaythay 5353%% ngingi coco trnhtrnh

oo g a og ao ucuc apap coco m cm c oo quanquan amam sansan p amp amcao,cao, trongtrong khikhi chch coco 4848%% so so ngingi coco trnhtrnh oogiaogiao ducduc caocao vivi mcmc quanquan tamtam sansan phampham caocao

XuXu thethe dongdong 22 trongtrong bangbang thth ngcngc lailai.. VV vay,vay,coco moimoi quanquan hehe giagia trnhtrnh oo giaogiao ducduc vava mcmcoo quanquan tamtam sansan phampham


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8.38.3--Lap bang cheo (tt)Lap bang cheo (tt)

NeuNeu bienbien ococ laplap thth haihai cc themthem vaovao

trongtrong phanphan tchtch thth motmot bangbang mimi ccthietthiet laplap vava tnhtnh hnhhnh coco thethe khackhac..

aa ss emem vaovao enen ococ apap aa g ,g , eequaqua so so lieulieu cc thethe hienhien quaqua bbngng 88..33didi ayay..


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Bng 8.3: Bang cheo the hien 3 bien

Mco

quan

tamsan

pham

Gii TongN Nam

Trnh o giaoduc

Trnh o giaoduc

ap ao ap ao

Cao 80%(20)

80%(20)

40%(20)

40%(40)

50%(100)

Thap 20%(5)20%(5)

60%(30)

60%(60)

50%(100)

Tong 100%(25)

100%(25)

100%(50)

100%(100)

100%(200)


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8.38.3--Lap bang cheoLap bang cheo--Giai thch bGiai thch bng 8.3ng 8.3 TheoTheo bbngng 88..33 thth trnhtrnh oo giaogiao ducduc hnhhnh nhnh

khongkhong coco tactac ongong enen mcmc oo quanquan tamtam sansanphampham.. GiiGii baybay gigiii aa chocho giaigiai thchthch tattat cacanhngnhng khackhac bietbiet

ThTh dudu naynay ratrat acac bietbiet.. TrongTrong hauhau hethet caccactrngtrng hphp caca haihai bienbien ococ laplap dngdng nhnh cocotactac ongong enen bienbien phuphu thuocthuoc.. ayay coco thethe coco

moimoi quanquan hehe tngtng tactac giagia caccac bienbien ococ laplap


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8.38.3--Lap bang cheo (tt) )Lap bang cheo (tt) )--Nhieu bien vaNhieu bien va

kiem nh thong kekiem nh thong ke Bang cheo co the cha nhieu bien, nhngBang cheo co the cha nhieu bien, nhng

thng s dung cho 3 en 4 bien.thng s dung cho 3 en 4 bien. Vi bat ky so loai dong va cot nao chung taVi bat ky so loai dong va cot nao chung ta

H, rang co hay khong s oc lap thong ke veH, rang co hay khong s oc lap thong ke vemoi quan he gia phan loai theo dong va phanmoi quan he gia phan loai theo dong va phanloai theo cot. Thng c kiem nh qua ChiSqloai theo cot. Thng c kiem nh qua ChiSq(xem giao trnh xac suat(xem giao trnh xac suat--thong ke).thong ke).


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8.38.3--Lap bang cheo (tt)Lap bang cheo (tt)--Nhieu bien vaNhieu bien va

kiem nh thong kekiem nh thong ke KhiKhi ss dungdung yy nghangha mcmc oo 00,,0505 (sai(sai so),so), giagia

trtr titi hanhan chocho 11 oo tt dodo lala 33,,533533 (tra(tra theotheo bangbangchocho trctrc veve kiemkiem nhnh thongthong ke)ke) TT ketket uaua so so lieulieu bbnn 88..11,, ss dundun concon thcthc

tnhtnh ChiSqChiSq tata coco thethe tnhtnh ChiSqChiSq moimoi quanquan hehegiagia cotcot vava dong,dong, vava ChiSq=ChiSq=00,,533533 SoSo sanhsanh vivi ketket quaqua tratra bangbang chocho thaythay 00,,533533


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8.48.4--Hoi quy tuyen tnh gian nHoi quy tuyen tnh gian n

MotMot trongtrong nhngnhng caccac phngphng phapphap thongthong keke

huhu chch lala phanphan tchtch hoihoi quyquy tngtng quanquan.. PhngPhngtrnhtrnh bieubieu diendien tngtng quanquan haihai bienbien (oc(oc laplap vavaphuphu thuoc)thuoc) goigoi lala phngphng trnhtrnh hoihoi quiqui nn..

GiaGia ss XX lala bienbien ococ lap,lap, YY lala bienbien phuphu thuoc,thuoc,tngtng quanquan giagia XX vava YY lala hoihoi quiqui tuyentuyen tnh,tnh,tctc::

Y=AX+BY=AX+B..Bng 8.4: So lieu thu nhap quoc dan va von trong

10 nam (ty ong)


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Nam Thu nhap quoc

dan (Yi)

Von au t

(Xi)Nam th nhat 20 10Nam th hai 22 11

Nam th ba 25 12Nam th t 27 13

Nam th nam 30 14Nam th sau 32 15

Nam th bay 33 16

Nam th tam 35 17

Nam th chn 36 18

Nam th mi 37 19


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So lieu bieu tren co the bieu dien trenSo lieu bieu tren co the bieu dien tren

o th di ay:o th di ay:

30

40

0

10

20

0 5 10 15 20

Series1


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8.48.4--Hoi quy tuyen tnh gian n(tt)Hoi quy tuyen tnh gian n(tt)

SS oo trentren thethe hienhien moimoi quanquan hehe giagia XX vava YY lala

quanquan hehe ngng thangthang (tuyen(tuyen tnh)tnh).. GiaiGiai phngphng trnhtrnh hoihoi quiqui tuyentuyen tnhtnh trentren maymay

tnhtnh vivi caccac soso lieulieu banban trentren chocho tata ketket uaua hehe

soso A=A=11,,945945 vava B=B=11,,491491,, phngphng trnhtrnh tuyentuyen tnhtnhthethe hienhien moimoi quanquan hehe giagia YY vava XXnhnh sausau:: Y=Y= 11,,945945 X+X+11,,491491 Ket qua hoi qui cho biet he so tng quan giaKet qua hoi qui cho biet he so tng quan gia

X va Y c ky hieu la r.X va Y c ky hieu la r.


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8.48.4--Hoi quy tuyen tnh gian n(tt)Hoi quy tuyen tnh gian n(tt) TrongTrong trngtrng hphp naynay hehe so so tngtng quanquan hieuhieu

chnhchnh giagia XX vava YY lala 00,,972972 lala soso dngdng thethe hienhien

tngtng quanquan thuan,thuan, vava rr gangan bangbang 11 thethe hienhien cocomoimoi quanquan hehe tngtng quanquan caocao.. NgoaiNgoai rara hehe so sotngtng quanquan bnhbnh phngphng rr22==00,,975975 concon noinoi lenlen lala

,, enen enen rongrong uu n apn ap quocquoc anan cocothethe cc giaigiai thchthch tt ss bienbien thienthien cuacua auau ttvonvon..

Gia tr p=10Gia tr p=10--0707


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8.58.5--Hoi qui tng quan boiHoi qui tng quan boi

HoiHoi quyquy tngtng quanquan boiboi lala motmot kyky thuatthuat ratrat cocouu thethe.. ayay lala dangdang phanphan tchtch momo hnhhnh hoihoi quiqui

aa bien,bien, coco dangdang tongtong quatquat:: Y=Y= (X(Xii),),

,, ii 11,, 22,,XX33..lala caccac bienbien ococ laplap.. NeuNeu lala quanquan hehe tuyentuyentnhtnh thth hamham hoihoi quyquy boiboi tuyentuyen tnhtnh coco dangdang::

Y=Y= AA11XX11+A+A22XX22+A+A33XX33+++A+AnnXXnn+B+B


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8.58.5--Hoi qui tng quan boi(tt)Hoi qui tng quan boi(tt)

NeuNeu lala quanquan hehe phiphi tuyentuyen thth thngthng cc bieubieuhienhien didi nhieunhieu dangdang nhnh dangdang luyluy tha,tha,..TrongTrong trngtrng hphp hamham phiphi tuyentuyen coco thethe chuyenchuyen

veve dangdang cc thangthang bangbang viecviec logaritlogarit hoahoa..ChangChang hanhan dangdang hamham mumu Y=BXY=BXiiaiai coco thethe chuyenchuyenveve dangdang ngng thangthang::

logY=logY= AA11 logXlogX11+A+A22 logXlogX22+A+A33 logXlogX33+++A+AnnlogXlogXnn+logB+logB GiaGia ss bangbang soso lieulieu thongthong keke didi ayay momo tata caccac

bienbien soso veve thuthu nhapnhap quocquoc dan,dan, vonvon auau t,t, laolaoong,ong, tyty trongtrong congcong nghenghe hienhien aiai.. Bieu 8.5: So lieu thu nhap quoc dan, von, lao

on t le con n he cao ua 10 nam


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8.58.5--Hoi qui tng quan boi(tt)Hoi qui tng quan boi(tt) AA11==11,,459459;; AA22==3030,,6969;;AA33==--00,,818818;; vava B=B=--1717,,103103,, tctc

phngphng trnhtrnh hoihoi quyquy coco dangdang:: Y=Y= 11,,459459XX

11

++3030,,6969XX22

--00,,818818XX33

--1717,,103103 HeHe soso tngtng quanquan boiboi R=R=00,,996996 ratrat caocao thethe hienhien moimoi

quanquan hehe chatchat cheche giagia caccac bienbien ococ laplap vivi bienbien ..

bangbang 00,,993993 chocho thaythay coco titi 9999,,33%% bienbien thienthien trongtrongthuthu nhapnhap quocquoc dandan coco thethe cc giaigiai thchthch tt caccacbienbien thienthien cuacua von,von, laolao ongong vava trnhtrnh oo congcong nghenghe..

CacCac hehe soso tngtng quanquan giagia TNQDTNQD vava vonvon rr11,, TNQDTNQDvivi laolao ongong rr22 vava TNQDTNQD vivi trnhtrnh oo congcong nghenghe rr33ratrat cao,cao, tt 00,,982982 enen 00,,987987.. GiaGia trtr pp cuacua caccac bienbien

eueu nhonho hnhn saisai soso chocho trctrc 00,,0505,, tctc caccac nhannhan totoeueu coco n han ha thonthon keke..


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8.68.6--Cac bienCac bien o (gio (gi) trong phan tch hoi qui) trong phan tch hoi qui CacCac bienbien ococ laplap aoao

Bien giBien gi (Dummy) la mot bien nhan tao, thng(Dummy) la mot bien nhan tao, thngno co hai gia tr 0 va 1.no co hai gia tr 0 va 1.

DiDi ayay sese xemxem xetxet motmot thth dudu ss dungdung bienbien ococ

laplap aoao.. Co hai nhom ban hang. Nhom A gom nhngCo hai nhom ban hang. Nhom A gom nhng

nhan vien a qua mot chng trnh huan luyen,nhan vien a qua mot chng trnh huan luyen,trong khi o nhom B gom nhng ngi ch ctrong khi o nhom B gom nhng ngi ch cgii thieu mot cach tom lc ve cong viec bangii thieu mot cach tom lc ve cong viec banhang.hang.

8 68 6 C bi iC bi i (( ) h h h i) h h h i


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8.68.6--Cac bien giCac bien gi ((o) trong phan tch hoio) trong phan tch hoi

qui(tt)qui(tt)-- Cac bien oc lap giCac bien oc lap gi

Chung ta can hoan thanh mot phan tch hoi qui,Chung ta can hoan thanh mot phan tch hoi qui,

trong o bien oc lap la so thang ma ngi bantrong o bien oc lap la so thang ma ngi banhang thc hien cong viec ban hang hay la kinhhang thc hien cong viec ban hang hay la kinhnghiem qua so thang ban hang, va bien phunghiem qua so thang ban hang, va bien phu

thuoc la doanh thu ban hang trong mot thangthuoc la doanh thu ban hang trong mot thang Chung ta, tat nhien co the phan tch theo haiChung ta, tat nhien co the phan tch theo hai

nhom mot cach oc lap. Bang viec phan tch canhom mot cach oc lap. Bang viec phan tch ca

hai nhom ong thi qua s dung cac bien gihai nhom ong thi qua s dung cac bien gichung ta co the so sanh ket qua thc hien cuachung ta co the so sanh ket qua thc hien cuahai nhom.hai nhom.

8 68 6 Cac bienCac bien o (gio (gi) trong phan t ch hoi) trong phan t ch hoi


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8.68.6--Cac bienCac bien o (gio (gi) trong phan t ch hoi) trong phan t ch hoiqui(tt)qui(tt)-- Cac bien oc lap giCac bien oc lap gi

TaTa goigoi::XX11jj lala so so thangthang kinhkinh nghiemnghiem mama ngingithth jj banban hanghang coco cc quaqua thithi giangian banban hanghang;;

XX22jj lala bienbien giagia vivi giagia trtr ==00 chocho tattat caca nhngnhng aiai nhomnhom B,B, vava ==11chocho tattat caca nhngnhng aiai nhomnhom AA;;

33jjaa momo ngng ac=ac= sansan p amp am cuacua

11jjvava

22jj;;

YYjj lala tongtong mcmc ban=laban=la doanhdoanh so so motmot thangthangthangthang cuoicuoi cungcung cuacua ngingi thth jj

ChungChung tata coco 1010 quanquan satsat chocho nhomnhom BB cc thethehienhien phanphan trentren trongtrong bbngng 88..66 vava 1212 quanquan satsatchocho nhomnhom AA atat didi soso lieulieu cuacua nhomnhom BB


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8 68 6 Cac bienCac bien o (gia) trong phan tch hoio (gia) trong phan tch hoi


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8.68.6--Cac bienCac bien o (gia) trong phan tch hoio (gia) trong phan tch hoiqui(tt)qui(tt)-- Cac bien oc lap giaCac bien oc lap gia

ChungChung tata sese cc tnhtnh tngtng quanquan hoihoi quiqui giagia YYvivi XX11,, XX22,, XX33.. KetKet quaqua hoihoi quiqui trentren maymay tnhtnh

chocho tata hamham:: Y(doanhY(doanh so)=so)= 11,,2121 ++ 00,,248248 XX11(thang(thang ban)ban) ++66,,1818

22

aoao ++ ,,33

ngng acac RR22==00,,947947;; RR22 (chnh)=(chnh)=00,,938938;; pp11==00,,012012;; pp22==00,,010010;;

pp33==00,,022022.. KetKet quaqua naynay chocho thaythay tattat caca caccac hehe soso

eueu coco yy nghangha khackhac vivi zero,zero, RR22 phanphan anhanh moimoitngtng quanquan caocao giagia caccac bienbien ococ laplap vava bienbienphuphu thuocthuoc..

8 68 6 C i C i ( i ) i( i ) i


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8.68.6--Cac bienCac bien o (gia) trong phan tch hoio (gia) trong phan tch hoi

qui(tt)qui(tt)-- Cac bien oc lap giaCac bien oc lap gia

BayBay gigi chungchung tata xemxem xetxet nhngnhng ngingi thuocthuocnhomnhom BB.. TT ketket quaqua bbngng 88..66 chocho thaythay caca bienbiensoso gigi vava bienbien soso tngtng tactac eueu ==00 chocho nhngnhng

.. V vay, chung ta i en vi ham hoi qui n gianV vay, chung ta i en vi ham hoi qui n gian

Y= 1,21+ 0,248 XY= 1,21+ 0,248 X11(so thang ban hang) cho nhom(so thang ban hang) cho nhomB.B.

GhiGhi chuchu rangrang chocho nhomnhom A,A, bienbien tngtng tactac chnhchnhlala so so thangthang banban hanghang.. TngTng tt cc tnhtnh hamhamhoihoi quiqui chocho nhomnhom AAnhnh sausau::

8 68 6 C bi C bi ( i ) h h h i( i ) h h h i


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8.68.6--Cac bienCac bien o (gia) trong phan tch hoio (gia) trong phan tch hoi

qui(tt)qui(tt)-- Cac bien oc lap giaCac bien oc lap gia Y(doanh so)=1,21+0,248 XY(doanh so)=1,21+0,248 X11(so thang ban hang)+(so thang ban hang)+

6,18 X6,18 X22(ao) + 0,406 X(ao) + 0,406 X33(tng tac)=1,21+0,248(tng tac)=1,21+0,248XX11(so thang ban hang)+6,18(1)+ 0,406 X(so thang ban hang)+6,18(1)+ 0,406 X33(so(sothang)=7,39+(0,248+0,406) Xthang)=7,39+(0,248+0,406) X (so thang)= 7,39+(so thang)= 7,39+

0,654 X0,654 X11 (so thang ban).(so thang ban). LaiLai motmot lanlan nana chungchung tata coco hamham tuyentuyen tnhtnh

nn giangian.. Ket qua cho thay nhom A co ng hoi qui docKet qua cho thay nhom A co ng hoi qui doc

hn nhom B. Gia tr p ch ra rang cac bien euhn nhom B. Gia tr p ch ra rang cac bien eu

co y ngha thong keco y ngha thong ke


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8.68.6--Cac bien gia trong phan tch hoi qui(tt)Cac bien gia trong phan tch hoi qui(tt)--

Bien phu thuoc giaBien phu thuoc gia ee chocho bienbien phuphu thuocthuoc trtr thanhthanh bienbien giagia lala

motmot trotro loiloi keokeo haphap dandan.. SS thchthch hphp vava dd baobaottngng ngng sausau oo coco thethe cc hieuhieu nhnh lala xacxacsuatsuat

uu enen = ua= ua sansan p amp am aa enen p up uthuoc,thuoc, trongtrong oo coco giagia tr=tr=00 chocho nhngnhng aiai khongkhongmuamua sansan phampham PP vava ==11 chocho nhngnhng ngingi muamuasansan phampham naynay.. BienBien ococ laplap X=McX=Mc thuthu nhapnhap..KetKet quaqua hoihoi quiqui tt soso lieulieu khaokhao satsat chocho ketket quaquasausau::

Y(MuaY(Mua sansan phampham P)=P)=--11,,2424++00,,00640064 X(thuX(thu nhap)nhap)


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8.68.6--Cac bien ao trong phan tch hoi qui(tt)Cac bien ao trong phan tch hoi qui(tt)--

Bien phu thuoc aoBien phu thuoc ao BangBang viecviec aa thuthu nhapnhap cuacua motmot ngingi vaovao momo

hnhhnh cc lnglng trentren chungchung tata tnhtnh toantoan cc xacxacsuatsuat cc lnglng rangrang ngingi naynay sese muamua sansan phamphamPP..

SS dungdung bienbien phuphu thuocthuoc aoao lala huhu chch khikhi chungchungtata cancan tmtm xemxem taitai saosao motmot so so ngingi lala thatthatnghiep,nghiep, motmot soso khackhac lala khong,khong, taitai saosao motmot sosophuphu nn ii lamlam viec,viec, soso khackhac lailai khongkhong..KetKet quaquanaynay chocho phepphep chungchung tata coco thethe dd baobao cc xacxacsuatsuat cuacua caccac thanhthanh vienvien cuacua motmot trongtrong haihainhomnhom..

8 78 7 Th dTh d: ANH GIA O LNG LI THE: ANH GIA O LNG LI THE


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8.78.7--Th dTh d: ANH GIA O LNG LI THE: ANH GIA O LNG LI THECANH TRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANHCANH TRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH

CAP O QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TE CAP O QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TE Theo bao cao nang lc canh tranh toan cau cua DienTheo bao cao nang lc canh tranh toan cau cua Dien

an kinh te the gii(WEF), kha nang canh tranh an kinh te the gii(WEF), kha nang canh tranh cap quoc gia c da tren 8 nhom nhan to bao gom:cap quoc gia c da tren 8 nhom nhan to bao gom: (1) Mc o m ca nen kinh te (thng mai va au(1) Mc o m ca nen kinh te (thng mai va au

(2) Vai tro cua chnh phu;(2) Vai tro cua chnh phu; (3) Tai chnh;(3) Tai chnh; (4) C s ha tang;(4) C s ha tang;

(5) Cong nghe;(5) Cong nghe; (6) Quan ly doanh nghiep;(6) Quan ly doanh nghiep; (7) Nguon nhan lc; va(7) Nguon nhan lc; va

(8) The che(8) The che

ANH GIA O LNG LI THE CANHANH GIA O LNG LI THE CANH


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TRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPTRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TEO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TE anh gia nang lc canh tranh cua quoc gia da vao khaoanh gia nang lc canh tranh cua quoc gia da vao khao

sat cho iem cac nhan to tren, sau o moi nhan to csat cho iem cac nhan to tren, sau o moi nhan to cgan cho mot trong so.gan cho mot trong so. Phng phap anh gia nay la do nhom nghien cu cuaPhng phap anh gia nay la do nhom nghien cu cua

-- , ,

moi nhom yeu to c gan nh sau:moi nhom yeu to c gan nh sau: nhom 1 co trong so la 16%, nhom 2: 17%, nhom 3: 17%,nhom 1 co trong so la 16%, nhom 2: 17%, nhom 3: 17%,

nhom 4:11%, nhom 5: 11%, nhom 6: 6%, nhom 7: 16%,nhom 4:11%, nhom 5: 11%, nhom 6: 6%, nhom 7: 16%,

va nhom 8: 6%.va nhom 8: 6%. C s e xac nh cac trong so nay, theo cac tac gia laC s e xac nh cac trong so nay, theo cac tac gia la

da vao he so tng quan cua cac nhom yeu to vi ch soda vao he so tng quan cua cac nhom yeu to vi ch so

phat trien kinh tephat trien kinh te



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TRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPTRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TEO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TE Cung theo cach tiep can nay, TS. Edmund Malesky,Cung theo cach tiep can nay, TS. Edmund Malesky,

chuyen gia t van cua d an Nang cao Nang lcchuyen gia t van cua d an Nang cao Nang lcCanh tranh Viet nam (VNCI) a thiet ke o lngCanh tranh Viet nam (VNCI) a thiet ke o lngch so canh tranh cap tnh ve moi trng kinh doanhch so canh tranh cap tnh ve moi trng kinh doanh

ay:ay: (1) Chi ph gia nhap th trng(1) Chi ph gia nhap th trng--o lng thi giano lng thi gian

mot doanh nghiep can lam cac thu tuc ang ky kinhmot doanh nghiep can lam cac thu tuc ang ky kinh

doanh, vi trong so c xac nh la 17,1%;doanh, vi trong so c xac nh la 17,1%; (2) Tiep can at ai(2) Tiep can at ai--tnh trang doanh nghiep co giaytnh trang doanh nghiep co giaychng nhan quyen s dung at, mc o ap ng nhuchng nhan quyen s dung at, mc o ap ng nhucau mat bang san xuat va gia at, vi trong so lacau mat bang san xuat va gia at, vi trong so la1,4%;1,4%;



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TRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPTRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TEO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TE (3) Tnh minh bach va tiep can thong tin(3) Tnh minh bach va tiep can thong tin--kha nangkha nang

doanh nghiep co the tiep can c qui hoach, kedoanh nghiep co the tiep can c qui hoach, kehoach cua a phng, tnh, cac van ban phap ly lienhoach cua a phng, tnh, cac van ban phap ly lienquan en kinh doanh, vi trong so la 16,1%;quan en kinh doanh, vi trong so la 16,1%;

nha ncnha nc--thi gian ma doanh nghiep phai bo ra ethi gian ma doanh nghiep phai bo ra ethc hien cac thu tuc hanh chnh, vi trong so lathc hien cac thu tuc hanh chnh, vi trong so la9,6%;9,6%;

(5) Chi ph khong chnh thc(5) Chi ph khong chnh thc--nhng chi ph khongnhng chi ph khongchnh thc ma doanh nghiep phai tra khi thc hienchnh thc ma doanh nghiep phai tra khi thc hiencac thu tuc kinh doanh, vi trong so la 7,6%;cac thu tuc kinh doanh, vi trong so la 7,6%;

(6) Thc hien chnh sach cua trung ng(6) Thc hien chnh sach cua trung ng--o lngo lng

mc o phoi hp gia trung ng va a phng.mc o phoi hp gia trung ng va a phng.Vi trong so la 0,2%;Vi trong so la 0,2%;



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TRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPTRANH VA KHA NANG CANH TRANH CAPO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TEO QUOC GIA/NEN KINH TE (7) u ai vi doanh nghiep nha nc(7) u ai vi doanh nghiep nha nc--o lng mco lng mc

o u tien, u ai cua chnh quyen a phng vio u tien, u ai cua chnh quyen a phng vidoanh nghiep nha nc, vi trong so la 13,1%;doanh nghiep nha nc, vi trong so la 13,1%;

(8) Tnh nang ong va tien phong cua lanh ao tnh(8) Tnh nang ong va tien phong cua lanh ao tnh--

cac sang kien cua chnh quyen a phng, vi trongcac sang kien cua chnh quyen a phng, vi trongso la 16,8%;so la 16,8%; (9) Chnh sach phat trien khu vc kinh te t nhan(9) Chnh sach phat trien khu vc kinh te t nhan--

anh gia chnh sach cua tnh thuc ay hoat onganh gia chnh sach cua tnh thuc ay hoat ongthng mai, cung cap thong tin, tm kiem oi tac, hothng mai, cung cap thong tin, tm kiem oi tac, hotr ao tao.cho khu vc t nhan, vi trong so latr ao tao.cho khu vc t nhan, vi trong so la11,1%11,1%

Cau hoi at ra thao thuan cua chngCau hoi at ra thao thuan cua chng


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Cau hoi at ra thao thuan cua chngCau hoi at ra thao thuan cua chng

nay la:nay la: 11)) PhngPhng phapphap nhnh tnh,tnh, ss khackhac bietbiet vivi

phngphng phapphap nhnh lnglng vava phampham vivi apap dungdung;; 22)) CacCac dangdang cuacua phngphng phapphap phanphan tchtch nhnh

33)) PhanPhan tchtch soso lieulieu nhnh tnhtnh 44)) CacCac phngphng phapphap phanphan tchtch so so lieulieu nhnh

lnglng.. (( phanphan tchtch motmot bien,bien, laplap bangbang cheo,cheo, hoihoiquiqui n,n, hoihoi quiqui boi,boi, phanphan tchtch bienbien ao)ao).. BanBanchatchat vava phampham vivi ngng dungdung cuacua moimoi phngphng

phapphap..


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BI TP 7BI TP 7 Xy dng m hnh nh lng cho vn nghinXy dng m hnh nh lng cho vn nghin

cu ca bn, xc nh cc bin, a ra cc gicu ca bn, xc nh cc bin, a ra cc githuytthuyt

,,hnh phn tch nh lng hc kim nhhnh phn tch nh lng hc kim nhgi thuytgi thuyt

Bnh lun, m hnh phn tch nh lng no phBnh lun, m hnh phn tch nh lng no phhp trong nghin cu ca bnhp trong nghin cu ca bn

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