September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

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pages 2,3&4

New Delhi – Burma’s firstgeneral election in two decadesis set to take place on November7th, amidst continuing oppositionto the validity of the event by both

domestic opposition groups andmembers of the internationalcommunity.

State-run media deliveredthe announcement on the morningof August 13th, with candidateswishing to partake in the polling

required to submit their names bythe close of August.

The Burmese junta’s choiceof November 7th for elections isdesigned to marginalise Aung SanSuu Kyi, contend several Westerngovernments and international

Junta announces election date

Kya Mya rights groups, and denotes adeliberate attack against AungSan Suu Kyi and her NationalLeague for Democracy (NLD)party.

Opposition derides Nov. 7 balloting

Election continued on page 10

New Delhi – Detained pro-democracy leader Aung San SuuKyi, spearheading her party’sdecision to boycott Burmeseelections on November 7th, isurging members and the public tomonitor polling fairness, herlawyer said.

The response came during atwo-hour meeting between theNational League for Democracy(NLD) party general secretary andher laywers, Nyan Win, Kyi Winand Khin Htay Kywe, at her homein the former Burmese capital ofRangoon, on the afternoon ofAugust 24th.

“She agreed with the decisionof the party leaders to boycott theelections and asserted that theboycott actually started since theparty’s Central Committeedecided not to stand in the

Suu Kyi urges party and public tomonitor pollsMyint Maung

elections on March 29th,” lawyerNyan Win told Mizzima.

Despite the decision, shesaid, “The party should notignore them [the elections] andshould watch them closely. Even

Chiang Mai – Burma’s juntaleaders, including Senior GeneralThan Shwe and his right-hand

man, Deputy Senior GeneralMaung Aye, resigned theirmilitary posts in a major reshuffleon August 27th.

Than Shwe and deputy quitmilitary in major reshuffle

Thomas Maung Shwe

Than Shwe continued on page 11 Suu Kyi continued on page 11

In-depth coverageof Burma'supcoming generalelection

Propaganda inBurmese cinema

Kyaw Kyapage 6

Drug economics inBurma's newpolitical order

Burma's transitionto civiliandictatorship

India, the NLD andrealpolitik

Cartoon

page 7

page 8

page 10

page 12

Perry Santanachote

Burma Campaign UK

Joseph Ball

Sai Mayku

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

2

Election 2010

Chiang Mai – Only two parties areconsidered close contestants by the largestjunta-backed party competing for seats inBurma’s first polls in 20 years, a seniorleader of the Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party (USDP) said on August18th.

The National Unity Party (NUP) andNational Democratic Force (NDF) will be theparty’s main rivals in the Southeast Asiancountry’s elections, the USDP senior leadersaid on condition of anonymity.

“The NUP is more than 20 years old andis well established, so we must wait andsee how effective they can be. And also theNDF is a renegade party of the NLD, so theymay be our rival party too. As for otherethnic parties, they will be our rivals only inthe States concerned,” the USDP

Junta-backed party boasts it has onlytwo main rivals

Kyaw Kha

Chiang Mai – With time expired tosubmit candidate names to the junta’selectoral body, lack of funds has drivenmany parties to reduce the number ofcontestants to enter Burma’s first electionsin 20 years, party leaders said.

The announced election dates,designated constituencies for parliamentand called for political parties to submittheir candidate lists before August 31st.The period is too short for political partiesand is causing problems, the leaders said.

“For our party, only the rich can becandidates because of the short timeperiod [allowed]. Most of the potentialcandidates don’t have money. It’s verydifficult to collect funds,” Democratic Party(Myanmar) chairman Thu Wai toldMizzima.

At first, the party had aimed to fieldabout 200 candidates to stand in theupcoming polls, but the party needed toreduce the number of candidates becauseevery candidate needed to pay 500,000kyats (about US$500) to the junta’selectoral commission.

Democratic Party (Myanmar) willcontest in the Irrawaddy, Mandalay,Rangoon and Tenasserim Divisions andMon and Arakan States.

Rakhine Nationals Progressive Partyexecutive member Tha Hla Aung, who willcontest the Pouktaw constituency ofArakan State, said, “I must ask for 500,000kyats from my family. And I need to spendabout one million kyats for the electoralcampaign. My party cannot give thatamount of money.”

Similarly, Nyo Min Lwin, the Peace andDiversity Party (PDP) chairman who livesin Rangoon but will contest a seat inMandalay, said that although he estimatedhe would need about 1.5 to 2 million kyatsahead of the election, he even lacked the500,000 kyats (about US$500) to registeras a candidate.

In keeping with section 16 of thejunta’s party registration laws, a partyneeds to contest in at least threeconstituencies for it to survive, so PDP firstvice-chairman Sandar Oo will contest inBogalay Township, Irrawaddy Division,general secretary Nay Myo Wai will standin Mingaladon Township, Rangoon, andjoint general secretary Aung Myo Oo willcontest in Kyeemyindaing Township,Rangoon.

Further examples of party poverty weredescribed by 88 Generation Student Youths(Union of Myanmar) vice-chaiman Than Oo,who said that most parties were in a stateof chaos because of time constraints andthat his party had also encountered financialproblems. As a result, they were forced torethink which of their 100 nominatedcandidates should stand.

Some candidates even have to fronttheir own fees. National Democratic Force(NDF) candidate Khin Maung Yi, who willcontest in the Ahlone constituency inRangoon Division, deposited 500,000 kyatsto the commission with his own money, hesaid.

Electoral rules state every party maywithdraw their lists of standing candidatesbefore September 3rd, and may thencommence campaigning, but this leavesonly two months to conduct campaigns.

Thu Wai, the former chairman of thedissolved Democracy Party which stood inthe 1990 elections, and a former politicalprisoner, noted the period assigned toconduct electoral campaigns was veryshort.

“In the 1990 election, we had enoughtime…We could conduct campaigning freelyand did not need to rush as we had aboutone year to campaign,” he said.

People do not like the junta-backedUnion Solidarity and Development Party(USDP), so the more time allowed otherparties to conduct electoral campaigns, theless votes the USDP would win, which isthe reason behind the limited time, Thu Waispeculated.

PDP chief Nyo Min Lwin, who was bornin Pyinmana, two miles (3.2 kilometres)east of the capital of Naypyitaw, said hismain rival in his Pyinmana constituency wasfrom the USDP, but that he wasunconcerned because he had siblings andrelatives in the town. He had alsoconducted electoral campaigns there in1990, so he has a lot of experience, addingthat his party had five candidates.

“I’ll visit to villages on a motorcycle toconduct electoral campaigning. I’ll circulatepamphlets about my political philosophies,biographies and future plans for ourcountry,” he said. “Moreover, I’ll talk to themin person. But, I don’t have money to buildstages to preach.”

Only 15 political parties, of some 40granted permission to form, had by mid-August submitted lists of party members.

Political parties face old foes of timeand money

Ko Wai and Khaing Suu

Democratic Party chairman Thu Wai (second from left) speaking at a press confer-ence on Sunday, August 22, 2010. Photo: Mizzima. He predicted the junta-backedUnion Solidarity and Development Committee (USDP) would win the most seats in theupcoming election as other political parties face financial problems.

NUP lodges complaint against USDPPhanida

Chiang Mai – Allegations of violationsof electoral laws continue to be leveledagainst the Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party (USDP), with theNational Union Party (NUP) the latest to cryfoul.

The dispute arose in regard tocampaign tactics in Pegu, where USDPmembers chanted slogans such as, ‘USDPwill win’, prompting the NUP to file acomplaint with the Pegu District ElectionCommission that electoral laws had beenviolated.

“The Township Election Commissionmust tell them not to act like that and thatthey should act in accordance with the law.We shall inform them today. Taking actionor not depends on them only. We won’t saythe USDP violated the electoral law. Thismust be said by Election Commission,” NUPPegu Division Secretary Hla Myint toldMizzima.

In an announcement issued by UnionElection Commission (UEC) dated June 21st,political parties are forbidden from chantingslogans, marching in procession and makingnoises and disturbances at religiousbuildings.

“They chanted slogans of ‘Vote forUSDP’, ‘USDP will win’ and ‘We shall win,We shall win’,” according to Peguresidents.

“We will point out the violation of lawby any party. The remaining part is to bedone by the authority concerned. If theydo not take action, we will note down it,”Hla Myint added.

The Pegu Election Commission wasnot available for comment whencontacted by Mizzima.

Despite the allegations, some believethe USDP and NUP are working in alliancetoward the November polling date.

The Burma Socialist ProgrammeParty (BSPP), established by General NeWin, was converted into the NUP in 1988and contested the 1990 multi-partygeneral election, winning ten seats. It isthe third largest party in the 2010 election.

The USDP is led by Prime MinisterThein Sein and is widely understood tobe the proxy party of the current militarygovernment. Under their plans, tenLieutenant Generals will resign from theirmilitary posts this coming Friday, aDefence Ministry source told Mizzima.

In its policy statement, the USDP saysit will build an efficient and strong militarycomprising over 400,000 troops.

Currently confirmed USDP candidates and their constituencies:

Minister Constituency

Irrigation Minister Htay Ooo HenzadaPlanning and Development Minister Soe Thar TwanteEnergy Minister Lun Thi KungyangoneIndustry 1 Minister Aung Thaung TanugtharCommunication Minister Thein Zaw MogaungSocial Welfare Minister Maung Maung Swe Namsan

representative told Mizzima, using NLD torefer to Aung San Suu Kyi’s NationalLeague for Democracy, which rejectedthe polls citing unfair and unjust electorallaws.

The USDP, led by 27 Central ExecutiveCommittee members including servingPrime Minister Thein Sein and membersof the junta’s cabinet, will contest seatsthroughout the country in everylegislature. In Rangoon Division alone,they will stand for 82 seats in all threelegislative bodies.

The divisional branch of the party heldits intra-party meeting on August 17th andadopted the party’s future plan. In itsorganisational work, the mass base willcomprise mainly farmers, workers andstudent. But leaders at party headquartersin the capital of Naypyitaw had yet toadopt the composition of the party.

According to party meeting minutes,signboards of the former Union Solidarityand Development Association (USDA) willbe removed from all of its offices acrossthe country, to be replaced by new USDPsigns.

The party believes the NUP and NDFwil l fai l to match its nationwidecampaigning in the run-up the vote, theleader assessed.

Critics of the USDP say it is misusingpublic funds to build roads, repair bridgesand open health clinics as part of theirelection campaigns.

It is a charge denied by one USDPorganiser, who claimed, “We can’t usethese public funds anymore after ourorganisation was converted to a politicalparty. We will run our party with our ownparty funds.”

The official seals of the Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party (top), National UnionParty (bottom left) and National DemocraticForce (bottom right).

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

3

Election 2010

Chiang Mai – The Communist Partyof Burma (CPB) has given notice of itsdesire to hold closed-door meetings withother organizations in order to formulatea common agenda for the post-electionperiod.

In a statement issued on the 18th ofthis month, the CPB said it is interested informulating a Minimum CommonProgramme (MCP) for the countryfollowing the November 7th polling.

The CPB, which does not accept juntaefforts at ensuring victory for its annointedpolitical debutante, the Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party (USDP), declared theobjective of the strategy as building up thebase of People Power.

Rival political parties allege the USDPunfairly benefits from financial and politicalpatronage offered by the country’s rulingmilitary.

In the statement, the CPB suggests theNational League for Democracy (NLD) andCommittee Representing People’sParliament (CRPP) should establish aProvisional Government when the people’smovement breaks out. The NLD emergedvictorious from the country’s last generalelection twenty years previously.

“The first thing we should do is tostrive for a great movement supported bythe people. It will fail if not supported bythe people. We must build our forces inboth underground and over-ground formsand fight against them [the junta] in theseforms,” CPB spokesman Comrade Po ThanJoung said.

However, CRPP General Secretary AyeThar Aung cautioned the installation of aProvisional Government was sti l lpremature, though he reiterated theywould uphold the people’s mandate giventhem by virtue of their 1990 electoralvictory.

The CRPP does not recognize theupcoming election, believing it will not lead

to a democratic system for the country andwil l fai l to bring about nationalreconciliation.

Aye Thar Aung added that the CRPPwould, with the guidance of the NLD,continue its struggle to resolve thecontradictions between Burmese militaryauthorities, ethnic forces and theinternational community.

“In this struggle we will join hands withthe people. The people are facing severedaily hardships in their livelihood, so theywill not keep silent for long. They willcertainly join the opposition movement,”Aye Thar Aung said.

The NLD, meanwhile, is continuing fieldtrips to townships, divisions and states inorder to consolidate its movement with thegeneral population and other pro-democracy forces.

The CPB’s MCP claims negotiations anddiscussions with Burma’s current militaryrulers will be a fruitless effort. Therefore,reform minded officers among the armedforces must be targeted and organized asnegotiation partners. However, furtherdetails as to the implementation of thestrategy were not available, said Po ThanJoung.

He also clarified, “This movement hasnothing to do with 2010 election.”

Nonetheless, a representative from theDemocratic Party (Myanmar), which willtake part in the election, said they do notagree with the notion of boycotting theelection and striving for a people’smovement.

“We must act in our own belief. Evenafter the election, we will continue our ownmovement in the parliament because thereis still a long, long way to democracy,” partychairman Thu Wei said.

There are 330 seats to be contestedin the People’s Parliament (Lower House),168 seats in the National Parliament (UpperHouse) and 689 seats for Local Assembliesin Regions and States – a total of 1,187seats up for grabs on November 7th.

CPB calls for unity in mass uprising

Ko Wild

Po Than Joung, spokesperson for the Communist Party of Burma. Photo: Mizzima

NDF leader quits polls, remainssupportive of electionKyaw Kha

Chiang Mai –National DemocraticForce (NDF) partyCentral ExecutiveCommittee memberKhin Maung Sweannounced onAugust 25th that heis withdrawing fromnationwide polls tobe held onNovember 7th.

Mizzima spokewith U Khin MaungSwe about hisdecision not topersonally contestthe upcoming elections, though he remainssupportive of the process.

Q. What prompted your decision notto contest the elections?

A. The Election Commission chairmancalled and told us [four leaders of the party]that having been imprisoned under penalcodes 122 and 124 [for acts of treasonrelated to forming a parallel governmentfollowing the 1990 general election], wewere prohibited to enter elections for therest of our lives. If we want to contest inthe election, he asked us to submit a letter.

I explained to the Election Commissionthat we have served the prison sentenceswithout any deducted days. We are nowordinary citizens. Those released shouldenjoy equal rights as ordinary citizens.

We also asked why the ElectionCommission couldn’t make a decision onthis matter at the time of party registrationand why the issue is only being raised now.If we are allowed to form a political party,it is understood we enjoy the right tocontest in the election.

I am nevertheless still a leader of theparty. I don’t want to discredit the party.For that reason, I will not raise the issueagain with the Election Commission.

Q. How do you consider the freedomand fairness of this election?

A. Now you are witnessing theinjustices. I have repeatedly told the factssince the election laws came out. I havealready spoken many times about theunfairness.

Only at the time of the election will webe able to observe whether the polling isbeing conducted in a free and fair manner.Is there any use of threat? Are there anyvote buying attempts? Are polling stationofficials treating party representativesfairly?

Q. If you are withdrawing from theelection, why is your party still contesting?

A. I didn’t resign from the party. I amstill a party leader and there has been no

decision that all partyleaders must contestin the election.

Q. Do youforesee the militaryg o v e r n m e n timposing furtherrestrictions?

A. Even if it istrue, I wil l sti l lsupport the electionbecause I am lookingfor the benefit of thepeople. Rather thanthe party winning inthe election, I standfor the people and

their ability to make a choice.I joined the election wanting to work

for the benefit of the people and makingpeople aware as to whom is actuallyworking for democracy and whichorganizations are standing with them. Butwe must traverse a narrow and difficultpath.

I see the election as an opportunityafter 20 years. Shall we stay away andneglect it because it is a difficult and thornypath? Shouldn’t the people practice theirvoting right that they deserve after 20years? Can’t we bring any power to thepeople, who can rightfully enjoy legislativepower in the new parliament?

Q. What is the position of the otherleaders of the party?

A. I decided not to enter the electionfor personal reasons. I support the election.I should not interfere with the other threeleaders’ affairs. I may lose face if I speakwrongly of their position. That is the reasonI don’t want to say anything.

Q. How is your readiness for theelection?

A. We have organized more than1,000 members.

Q. Do you have anything else youwould like to add?

A. For the benefit of the people, wechose the election no matter how dim thelight. People can say bad words about us,but we don’t take it seriously. We don’tcare if people call us names. We see thatwe need to take the first steps in this timefor democracy and human rights for ourpeople.

When people need change, weshouldn’t oppose everything by saying novoting or no election. For that reason, Iwant to convey the following message toour fellow citizens through Mizzima: Evenif the election is unfree or unfair we mustpass through this time together with thepeople, and we should continue to striveto open the doors of democracy, one afteranother.

Khin Maung Swe, political committee chieffor the National Democratic Force.

Chiang Mai – Junta military securityand police this morning seized a year’ssupply of medicines from a Kachin rebelmotorboat docked on the Irrawaddy Riverin the Kachin State capital of Myitkyina,the boat’s skipper said.

The seizure comes amid heightenedtensions between the ethnic population ofthe northern Burmese state led by theKachin Independence Organisation (KIO)and Burma’s ruling military junta, whichis raising the ante over the KIO’s continuedrejection to bring its Kachin Independence

Army (KIA) under junta command as partof a Border Guard Force (BGF).

The KIA has started to prepare for war,as a majority of participants at an August27th Kachin congress again rejecteddisarming despite a junta threat to end theceasefire between the two sides,spokesmen said.

Analysts said the medicine seizure isdesigned to apply more pressure on theKIO.

Valued at an estimated 1.6 million kyat(about US$1,600), the drugs wereconfiscated by Military Affairs Securityofficials and officers from Police Station

No.1 from a boat owned by the KachinIndependence Organisation (KIO) as it wasmoored at Kuthu Pier at about 9 a.m., theskipper elaborated.

Kachin Independence Army (KIA)doctor Yaw Han had bought the drugs fromthe Saunghayman Pharmacy in Myitkyinafor the clinic at Htainnan Village in PutaoDistrict where the KIA’s 7th Battalion isbased, he said.

“We use to carry rice, cooking oil, salt,medicine and food. I don’t know why theyconfiscated the medicine this time,” theskipper said on condition of anonymity. “Theauthorities also warned us that they would

Junta seizes KIO medicines as armed clashes loom

Phanida

arrest the boat’s owner and skipper nexttime, if they found medicines were carried.”

Yaw Han told the authorities he andthe villagers had difficulty getting toMyitkyina from the village, which was whyhe had bought enough medicine for a year.The Military Affairs Security officers andpolice replied that they had confiscated themedicine in accord with orders from theirsuperiors, who contend the Kachin arebanned from carrying any medicine or foodon the river.

The confiscated medicines are beingheld at Myitkyina Police Station No. 1.Authorities told the KIO that they wouldreturn the medicines only if they receivedorders to that effect, sources said.

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

4

Election 2010

UMFNP chairman Aye Lwin

Three opposition parties enter into alliance

New Delhi – Attempting to strengthentheir collective position as the Novemberpolling date nears, three Rangoon-basedpolitical parties have formed a politicalalliance, according to party sources.

The Union of Myanmar Federation ofNational Politics (UMFNP), 88 GenerationStudent Youths (Union of Myanmar) andMyanmar Democracy Congress Party(MDCP) on August 21 agreed that only onecandidate from the three parties shouldcontest in each constituency.

“Our three parties formed a politicalalliance for the forthcoming election. If oneparty of our alliance contests in aconstituency, the other two parties will notcontest in that constituency,” UMFNPchairman Aye Lwin told Mizzima.

On August 21, the MyanmarDemocracy Congress Party invited 24Rangoon-based political parties to attenda meeting to form a political alliance andto allocate the constituencies for each partyto contest.

However, veteran Shan politician ShweOhn passed away on the same day, leavingonly the three parties currently in allianceto attend the proceedings.

One hundred to 150 candidates fromthe political alliance will contest inconstituencies throughout Rangoon, Pegu(Bago), Irrawaddy, Mandalay, Magway and

Sagaing Divisions and Chin State, UMFNPchairman Aye Lwin said. At least 50 of the150 candidates will be from Aye Lwin’sUMFNP party.

“Every political party is warmlywelcomed to join our political alliance, evenif they have different policies. We want toapportion the constituencies for the partiesin alliance to avoid competing with eachother,” he explained.

Similarly, the Democratic Party(Myanmar), National Democratic Force(NDF), Union Democracy Party (UDP),Rakhine Nationals Development Party(RNDP) and Shan Nationals DemocraticParty (SNDP) met in Rangoon with theintention of forming a similar alliance inearly July.

However, although the five parties met,being busy collecting the required numberof party members (1,000) and preparingto submit candidate lists within 16 days,they could not discuss the subject of apolitical alliance, according UDP Vice-Chairman No. (1) Htay.

Unless political parties form an allianceto apportion constituencies for candidacy,the junta-backed Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party (USDP) will gain furtheradvantages, a veteran journalist inRangoon commented.

“If more than one pro-democracypolitical party contests in the sameconstituency, the USDP wil l takeadvantage. For instance, if both theDemocratic Party (Myanmar) and NDFcontest in the same constituency, the votesof pro-democracy voters will be scatteredbetween the two parties. If so, the junta-backed USDP will win easily in thatconstituency. If only one pro-democracyparty contests a constituency there will bea greater chance of victory,” he furthered.

NDF leader Khin Maung Swe said thathis party would cooperate with other pro-democracy parties to avoid contesting inthe same constituencies. He added that hisparty would not contest in constituencieswhere the UDP will contest.

“If pro-democracy parties clash witheach other in the same constituencies, notonly the parties but also the people willlose. So, the pro-democracy parties mustnegotiate with each other to allotconstituencies,” he said.

Among the 47 political parties that haveapplied for registration, the electoralcommission has approved 42, while 26 havesubmitted lists of party members, accordingto the August 25 issue of the state-runnewspaper New Light of Myanmar.

Sali Han Thar San New Delhi – Burma’s state censorboard has banned news journals from usingthe seal of the party that broke away fromAung San Suu Kyi’s National League forDemocracy (NLD).

The Press Scrutiny and RegistrationDivision, the Burmese junta’s censor board,has banned the National Democratic Front’s(NDF) bamboo hat logo from allpublications, according to party leader KhinMaung Swe.

Sources close to Rangoon journalsconfirmed the ban.

“We presented a draft copy ofinterviews with the bamboo hat logo, butthe censor deleted both interviews featuringthe NDF and the logo,” an editor with linksto Rangoon journals said.

“We can print the seals and logos ofother parties. As far as we know, they eventurned down a draft copy attached withclippings of state-run media bearing thislogo,” a source close to Hot News toldMizzima.

The NDF argues that while censor hasrestricted news coverage containing itslogo, the seals and logos of other partiesremain unaffected by any restriction,adding that the party should be allowed thesame freedoms as other officially registeredparties.

The party contends the logo waspermitted in the media only during the

Censor board bans bamboo hat logo

Khaing Suu public dispute between the NDF and NLDfollowing the former’s decision to breakfrom Aung San Suu Kyi’s faction.

“Why should a logo recognised andpermitted by the [election] commission bebanned? No, the censor board permittedour journal and other journals to coverthe news and its logo,” Monitor editor-in-chief Myat Khaing told Mizzima. Lastmonth’s issue of the journal was allowedto cover NDF news and use its bamboohat seal.

Censor board section head Yu Yu Winexplained, “We permit these logos if theyare officially recognised by the [electoral]commission. I can say only this.”

The dispute regarding the logoapparently arose when the NDF appliedfor party registration with the electoralcommission, which permitted use of thelogo. The commission, however, failed tocommunicate its approval to the censorboard, a source close to the censor said.

Similarly, Snapshot journal wasbarred from running an interview withNDF party chairman Dr. Than Nyein twomonths ago, a source close to the journalsaid.

“It seems the authorities are buildingmore hurdles for our election campaignas the polling date draws nearer,” KhinMaung Swe said.

The NDF will field approximately 100candidates in the election, which is to beheld on November 7th.

Dr. Than Nyein, chairman of the National Democratic Force, presiding over the openingceremony of the party's office in Mandalay on August 19, 2010. Photo: Mizzima

Leaders of the National Democratic Force including Khin Maung Swe (leftmost) and Dr.Than Nyein (fourth from left) attending the signboard installation ceremony at partyheadquarters in Rangoon on Sunday, August 1.Photo: Mizzima.

Chiang Mai – The Burmese junta’selectoral watchdog has warned a NationalLeague for Democracy splinter party thatfour members of its Central ExecutiveCommittee may be ineligible to stand inthe forthcoming national elections becauseof alleged past acts of treason.

Union Election Commission (UEC)chairman Than Soe named four NationalDemocratic Force (NDF) top panelmembers – Vice-Chairman Tin Aung Aung,Central Executive Committee member ThaSaing, political committee chief KhinMaung Swe and political committeemember Than Soe – as subject to electoralban as they were charged with hightreason in 1990, Khin Maung Swe said.

“The UEC told us to submit an appealletter to its chairman…so we havediscussed the case with our lawyers butwe’ve not yet fixed a date [to file ourpetition],” Khin Maung Swe furthered.

“The electoral commission told us that

NDF leaders threatened with ban over treason allegationsKo Wild

if we submitted the letter, the commissionwould review it and pass it to a superiorauthority,” Khin Maung Swe said. “Wehave already served long prisonsentences on [the treason] charges, butthe warning said we were never allowedto stand in polls.”

The four former National League forDemocracy (NLD) MPs were charged withacts of high treason against the state forallegedly attempting to force the currentjunta’s precursor, the State Law andOrder Restoration Council (SLORC), totransfer power by establishing a parallelgovernment after the NLD emergedvictorious in nationwide elections in 1990.

Having served approximately twoyears of his ten-year jail term, KhinMaung Swe was released under anamnesty enacted in November 1992.However, after two years he wasrearrested and sentenced to seven yearsin prison. His amnesty was also revoked,requiring him to also serve the remainderof his previous ten-year prison sentence.He was eventually detained for anadditional 16 years and six months.

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

5

Regional

Chiang Mai – Scant weeks afterBurmese head-of-state Senior General ThanShwe paid an official visit to India, NewDelhi may be on the verge of upping its levelof investment into Burmese natural gas.

India mulls further investment intoBurmese energy sector

State-owned oil companies Indian Oil(IOC) and Oil India (OIL) are said to be intalks with the Mumbai-based Essar Groupto take up joint 20 percent shares in theshallow-water (A2) gas block.

Essar's Hazira plant in the west Indian state of Gujarat.

The Economic Times on August 24threported that an Indian oil ministry officialhad confirmed recent visits to Essar by bothIOC and OIL.

“They are considering to jointly pickup 40 percent stake in Essar’s gas block,”he said.

The field concerned is still said to beat the exploratory stage, with estimates ofrecoverable reserves yet to be determined.

Globally, Burma’s confirmed naturalgas reserves are modest. As of 2009, theCIA listed reserves at 283 billion cubicmeters, placing Burma 41st in the worldand sixth among ASEAN states.

However, given the poor economicdevelopment in other sectors of theeconomy, the export of natural gas toThailand alone is estimated to account for40 percent of all export earnings.

Burma expert Derek Tonkin notes thatit is a figure set to drastically rise oncepipelines to regional giants China and Indiabecome operational.

The Economic Times quotes a figureof 13 trillion cubic feet of potential reservesin the (A2) bloc. If anywhere close toaccurate, the figure sighted is well morethan double the converted CIA data ofknown reserves.

According to the U.S. GeologicalSurvey, 45 percent of the world’s naturalgas reserves are yet to be discovered.

Warmer nightsthreaten rice cropsacross Asia

Chiang Mai – As if Cyclone Nargis,rat infestations and incessant drought werenot enough to wilt rice production in Burma,farmers must now face the effects of globalwarming, according to research publishedon August 9th.

Cyclone Nargis had reduced yields by40 percent in 2008, the UN Food andAgriculture Organisation reported, but a

Perry Santanachote

Warmer continued on page 9

New Delhi – A total of more than 60Burmese were sent back to Burma at theclose of August from the northeasternIndian state of Mizoram, amid a randomcrackdown on illegal migrants, witnessessaid.

Burmese workers from clothingfactories in the state capital of Aizawl werearrested on August 28th for violatingimmigration laws. The following day thecity’s district court ordered their return andofficials took those detained to the TioRiver, which forms part of the Indo-Burmese border.

“In some wards, Burmese women werearrested. But in ours, women and thosewith children were not. They [police]arrested only men, some of whom hadarrived here only a few months ago,”Aizawl clothing factory worker Khin MaungOo said.

“Some had already been arrestedunder the immigration law. The police saidthat they were reluctant to arrest themigrants and that they were acting onlyon the orders of their superior officers,”he said.

A Burmese citizen who observed thecourt proceedings told Mizzima that twoleaders and 28 students of the ChinNational Council and members of the FreeBurma Rangers, a Thailand-based groupthat rescues victims of junta attacks onethnic minority villages, were among thosedetained and sent back to Burma.

Other sources, however, said reportsof the Free Burma Rangers’ arrests wereas yet unconfirmed.

The court witness said, “Burmese

Mizoram deports scores of Burmese migrants

Salai Tun migrants were arrested under theimmigration act because they didn’t havedocuments that permitted their stay.”

Mizzima contacted the Aizawl PoliceStation and an officer said to addressinquiries to ward-level police stations. Anofficer at Bawngkawn Police Stationsubsequently confirmed that some illegalmigrants were arrested for violatingimmigration laws but declined to providedetails.

In the past, people detained underimmigration laws were sentenced to jailfor about six months, but employers orrelatives could have them released on bail.Now regulations are tighter, and illegalmigrants are being refused bail.

Most of the 50,000 Burmese migrantworkers in Mizoram are without visas,leaving them vulnerable to arrest.

Burmese in the state predicted morearrests in light of the increasing frequencyof police patrols. Some illegal migrantshave fled to the jungle to hide amid growingconcerns they could face arrest.

“The arrests may be the result of drug-related and other crimes committed byBurmese people. In the past, when therewere many crimes committed by Burmeseillegal workers, crackdowns on migrantswere launched,” a Burmese worker toldMizzima.

According to the Aizawl narcotics squad,about 60 drug-related crimes have thus far beencommitted this year by Burmese citizens in thecity.

The thousands of Burmese migrants inMizoram work in businesses including goldsmithshops, automobile services, restaurants, clothing

factories and road construction.

Burmese workers at a clothing factory in Aizawl, capital of Mizoram.

New Delhi – The ruling party in India’snortheastern Mizoram State said it would

like Burmese elections planned for

November 7th to be free and fair.

The state occupies a vital position in

land-trade links between India and Burma

and employs more than 50,000 Burmese

migrant workers.

The state’s Congress party chief

spokesman, P. C. Lalruata, said, “Our party

would welcome [the polls] more if they

[Burma’s ruling generals] hold these

general elections in a democratic way, in

free and fair manner. We have much doubt

over these elections.”

“The elections will be free and fair if

the people can participate freely. But they

are not seemingly establishing Burma as

a democratic country,” he said.

Opposition Mizo National Front party

lawmaker Vanlalzawma added, “Political

prisoners should be released before the

elections or at least granted participation

from prison. In India, people behind bars

Salai Tun

Mizoram ruling party urges free, fairelections in Burma

The Indo-Burma border region near theIndian town of Champhai.

can participate in elections. It’s also not

good to see that elections are to be held

without releasing Aung San Suu Kyi.”

They added that the junta should let

the UN monitor the elections to ensure they

are free and fair and that the regime

should not be above its electoral watchdog,

the Union Election Commission.

“The current government needs to be

changed and the UN should be allowed to

move freely in Burma. The UN does not

want military dictatorship. They want only

democracy. I want to see [Burma as] a

democratic country through free elections.

The government must not meddle with the

functions of the election commission,”

Vanlalzawma said.

However, Congress party lawmaker C.

L. Ruala had few illusions about the polls’

fairness.

“They [The Burmese junta] didn’t

transfer power to the political party that

won a landslide victory in the 1990 general

election. I absolutely don’t think it [freedom

in Burma] will be better after the elections,

which will be held under the rule of the

military regime. The elections won’t be free

or fair until they allow free election

campaigns.”

As an established and large

democratic country, India should not

support the Burmese elections, but it

remains unlikely New Delhi would extend

its support if the regime held the upcoming

elections under undemocratic conditions,

party leaders in Mizoram State said.

C. L. Ruala said his party would like to

see a better relationship with Burma as

its oil and gas reserves are vital for India

and that New Delhi is trying to tip the

regional balance of power against China,

which also borders Burma.

He added, “India is providing millions

of dollars to Burma to alleviate the

hardships of the Burmese people, building

roads and other communications projects.

China is also targeting Burma’s energy

resources. So, India is trying to do its

utmost [to get hold of Burma’s resources]

lest China gains a firm and total foothold.”

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

6

Editorial/Interview

The Mizzima Journal

EditorialSeptember 2 0 1 0

Chiang Mai –Amid widespreadcriticism of the pro-g o v e r n m e n tpropaganda fi lm,Lotus Blooming in theDawn, produced byBurma’s Ministry ofInformation, activistsare demanding thattravel bans beimposed on the 68high-profile actors andactresses who tookpart. The film aims tochronicle the Burmese junta’s interpretationof history from the pre-independence erato the present.

Bearing the brunt of the outcry is thefilm’s director, Tin Than Oo, a former armyofficer who served in the PsychologicalWarfare Department for 20 years. Mizzimaspoke to Tin Than Oo about who benefitedfrom this film and some of the eventsbehind the scenes.

Q: Did you spend a lot of money onthe many stars that appear in this film?

A: Not much because meals wereserved to the entire crew at each locationfree of charge by respective divisionalauthorities. The Ministry of Information had

to spend only 80million kyats (US$= 1,000 kyats).Moreover, wedidn’t have to paystars at their fullrate. The totalcost might havereached 500million if we hadto do so.

Q: You musthave had to paythese stars a lot.How much was it?

A: We didn’tneed to pay them their full rate. Theyunderstood the situation and that thegovernment would pay them in kind, witha 50 percent concession on their incometaxes.

They were recruited by the ministry inconsultation with the Motion PictureAssociation. The government paid them invarious forms and invited them to dinner,where they were also given honoraria. Iwas given some money in honorarium too,about 400,000 kyats.

Q: Do you think any distortions weremade by the stars in playing real, historicalcharacters from Burma’s past?

A: There was a split between U Nu

Former psy-war officer gives director’stake on junta filmKyaw Kha

The well-documented regime of corruption overseen by Than Shwe as militaryhead-of-state has apparently reaffirmed the maxim that a corrupt governmenthas but one option – to remain in power.

Seventy-seven year old Than Shwe, until the close of August entrusted withthe title of Senior General, appears to be positioning himself to become Burma’spost-election civilian president.

The resignation of Than Shwe, along with Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Man– the military’s former No. 2 and 3, follows similar resignations earlier this yearby 27 military officials, many of whom are now government ministers and permittedto contest the polls under a party backed by the armed forces. 

Under Burma’s 2008 constitution, a civilian president is to be chosen by theupper and lower houses of parliament following the nomination of three people.The remaining two then share the duties of vice president.

Even as the Burmese military contemplates instituting mandatory retirementages for its officers, surely a welcome move, Than Shwe is finding it difficult tostep down from the pinnacle of the country’s political landscape.

Having first risen to the top position in the Burmese military in 1992, thereportedly ailing strongman seems determined to cling to power to the bitterend.

Term limits have widely come to be identified as a critical element in thetransition to effective democratic governance, with Indonesia’s armed forcesreaching such a conclusion as early as 1990, though it would take another eightyears for that country’s autocratic ruler to exit the stage.

If Than Shwe does in fact come to occupy the post of president, the November7th election will undoubtedly be even further discredited, as the overt and thinlyveiled presence of Burma’s security sector will easily dominate the ostensibletransition to democratic governance.

Already, opposition voices are clamoring of the unjustness not only in thereservation of 25 percent of parliamentary seats for sitting members of the military,but of skewed campaign laws and measures developed to ensure victory for thejunta’s chosen political wing as headed by former military officers.

However, what remains to be seen is how the public would react to the newsof Than Shwe easing himself into the presidency. Only three years ago to themonth, the people demonstrated their distaste for Than Shwe’s rule in militarygarb, with depreciating economic conditions, decrepit social services and lack ofopportunity leading tens of thousands to march through the streets of Rangoon.

The sound of ‘President Than Shwe’ would certainly rankle the ears of thevoting population even further, and provide additional evidence as to just how outof touch Burma’s strongman has become to the ground reality of the country he’sreigned over for nearly two decades.

Burma’s ageing autocrat refuses to

leave the stage

and Kyaw Nyein (in 1958). But we couldnot find an actor who looked like U Nu…andnone of these stars could play the roleperfectly. We had similar problems withKyaw Nyein and Ba Swe. All of them werereally seasoned politicians with dignifiedroles in the past. The stars couldn’t playthese characters.

Q: Was there any censorship of thefilm?

A: Yes, some scenes were censoredbut not many. We shot this film inaccordance with true history. For instance,in the 1958-split story (when Ba Swe alsofell out with U Nu and their Anti-FascistPeople’s Freedom League or AFPFL splitinto two factions), Ba Swe told his men:“In the past, my comrades called meKyagyi (Big Tiger) Ba Swe as I performedmy duty very resolutely, with firmconviction. Now they are calling me Nwagyi(cattle) Ba Swe as I’m losing this virtue.”We used this quote, but the censor boardcut it, calling it too harsh.

Q: Some critics say this film waspsychological warfare. How would yourespond?

A: I served in the psychologicalwarfare department for 20 years as anofficer. If I had to include psy-war elementsin this film, I wouldn’t have made it likethis. This film was done in a forthright

manner, but psy-war does not operate likethat. It reaches its point and theme subtly.I carried out many such operations andhad a lot of experience in it. The plot andscreenplay were not of my choice. I justfollowed what they gave me in a mannerthey agreed upon.

Q: If you were to make a psy-war filmwith your own screenplay, what would itbe?

A: There is one principle inpsychological warfare, which is “neveroppose what people like”. We must pleasethe general audience in our productionswith at least 80 percent of what they wouldlike, including humorous parts. Theelements that need to be injected as psy-war should make up not more than 20percent. In this film, that proportion wasreversed.

Q: You were a soldier and laterbecame writer and director. How did youswitch to these new careers?

A: First, I was an infantry soldier. Thensuperior officers called me to serve in themaking of the Tatmadaw Sarzin (armyeducational and training publications). Irefused, but they forced me to serve inthis department, as they couldn’t find otherappropriate people.

Then I was recalled to the War Officeto make films, but I knew nothing about

film-making. I had to study this subject andunderwent training.

Psychological warfare does not onlyfeature in writing and film-making. Thereis a lot of other work in this trade, includingdropping leaflets from the air.

In the “8888 uprising”, we droppedleaflets from the air warning the protestersthat the army would attack if they didn’tstop their demonstrations. Similarly, wedropped leaflets along the border aftermany students had fled to the countrysideafter the uprising, asking them to returnhome.

Q: Did you ever consider the publichatred you would bring upon yourself formaking this film?

A: Some people understand oursituation. Those who don’t understand willscold us. Nevertheless, we must takeresponsibility when our names are listedin the credits. I won’t evade thisresponsibility by claiming ignorance. I willnever do that. I won’t make a total denial.I could have evaded this situation on healthgrounds and put myself in hospital, but I

didn’t…[and] tried my best to fulfill my duty.

Q: Why did you retire from the army?Do you have any ambition for politics?

A: I retired from the army as GeneralStaff Officer Grade I with the rank oflieutenant colonel. I have no plans to takepart in politics.

Q: Do you have any plans to make afilm about the Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party (USDP)?

A: I told them I couldn’t do it. Thoughthey came to me and said they’d like meto make such a film, they had no concreteplans or resources. They just came andasked me what to do. I replied that doingnothing was the best idea, but theycontinued to talk about the film and askfor my suggestions. I told them I couldn’teven do that as my health was so poor atthe time. I had twice undergone heartsurgery and the latest surgical incision hadnot yet fully healed when I began to makethis movie. It was started last year andshooting took 29 days, excluding travelingtime.

A scene from Lotus Blooming in the Dawn.

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

7

Special Narcotics Report

Chiang Mai – In 2003 Burmese army

officer Aung Min was riding high on drug

“taxes” collected from traffickers that

crossed into his command area, but one

day he arrested and executed 15

traffickers, seized their heroin and sold it

on the Chinese black market for 200 million

kyats (US$ 200,000), 20 times more than

he would make in a year of tax collecting.

Military intelligence investigated Aung

Min shortly after the incident when his foot

soldiers were seen suddenly adorned in

gold jewelry and he had made a

considerable transaction to his mother in

the middle of Burma’s banking crisis. That

red flag landed him 15 years in prison.

However, the crime he committed was not

really the problem; it was the spectacle

that got him in trouble.

“Military officers’ involvement in drug

trafficking is very common, particularly in

Shan State. Even the killing,” said an ex-

army captain and friend of Aung Min. “It’s

rare that they are arrested. Aung Min was

inexperienced so he didn’t know how to

be low-profile.”

The former officer divulged Aung Min’s

story on condition of anonymity. He left the

army last year after 10 years of service

and now lives across the border in northern

Thailand. He went through three years of

officer intake with Aung Min and said they

were close friends. The last time they saw

each other was on October 7, 2002.

“He was very honest – a simple man,”

he said. “I was surprised when I found out.

I think it was due to the environment

because he was assigned to this area and

this kind of bribing, taking money, dealing

drugs – this might have changed him.”

Many Burmese soldiers survive on

revenues collected from extortion fees

because their salaries are meagre and the

government has cut off their rations.

Today, a private earns about 16,000 kyats

a month, a sergeant earns 35,000 to

40,000 kyats, while a major general earns

800,000 kyats.

He said there were no official orders

to bribe opium farmers or traffickers, but

that it had become a major component of

military culture. Everyone takes bribes.

Officers stress that discretion is key

because of the military’s appearance of

reform. If a soldier’s actions threaten to

expose their role in the drug trade, he will

suffer the same fate as Aung Min.

Appearances deceptive

A favoured tactic of the regime in its

delusive fight against drugs is the highly

publicised heroin eradication programme,

which the ex-officer explained how is set

up.

There would be orders from the

regional command centre to cut off poppy

at a plantation, he said. The authorities

would call the farmers and village leader

before heading out. Upon arrival the

farmers would show the soldiers the

unusable poppy plants, made so by the

plants’ inability to produce the seeds

required to make heroin. The soldiers

would slash these and leave the good ones

intact. Then they would document the

eradication with photographs and bonfires.

Afterwards, the soldiers collect 10 million

kyats from the village head. This process

is reportedly repeated every three months.

The Palaung Women’s Organisation

(PWO), an NGO based in Mae Sot,

Thailand, found in a 2009 report that only

11 percent of poppy fields had been

destroyed the previous season, mostly in

areas visible to the UN’s satellite monitors.

More “taxes” are collected in the

trafficking process too. The ex-army

captain explained that regional

commanders communicate with ceasefire

group leaders and issue passes to place

on the narcotics cargo trucks so that they

are exempt from searches at checkpoints.

There are 13 regional commanders

throughout the state. About three of them:

the Eastern, the Northeastern and Triangle

commanders are alleged to e active in the

drug trade.

‘Politically correct’ drug trade

“In my 10 years in the army there was

an increase in drugs, trafficking, bribes and

this kind of involvement,” said the ex-army

captain. The escalation in drug activities

is partly caused by the growing number of

militia and ceasefire groups.

“Before, the army got an agreement

with the ceasefire groups they fought

against the rebels and weren’t involved in

drug trafficking because they were not

friends, they were enemies,” said the

former captain. “After the ceasefires they

had to get money from them for

sustainability.”

To d a y

there are an

estimated 17

ceasefire agreements with

the country’s ethnic rebel

groups. The number of active militia

groups is unknown, but a junta

document reveals 396 in the Northeastern

command alone. In the run up to this year’s

election, the military has increased

pressure on ceasefire groups to join its

Border Guard Force. Those that concede

and support the junta’s political ambitions

are awarded with military support in their

drug activities.

“Those who are most influential are

involved in the drug trade, especially the

militia leaders,” said Khun Seng from the

Shan Herald Agency for News (SHAN).

“These people will take advantage of the

situation.”

Khun Seng said that as an extra

incentive, each militia group was now

assigned an operational area where they

could do whatever they want without

disruption.

“If you are ‘politically correct’, you can

do anything in Burma,” he said.

PWO’s investigation corroborated

SHAN’s accounts that more drugs were

indeed coming out of militia-run areas. It

reported that opium cultivation increased

over 200 percent in Mantong and Namkham

townships in Shan State, both areas

controlled by the government.

Both SHAN and PWO have criticised

United Nations methodology, which relies

on data reported by the junta’s eradication

reports and satellite imagery without

proper verification. The UN has typically

reported a gradually improving

environment regarding poppy eradication.

Seizures mean little

Khun Seng also disputed a statement

in the UN’s World Drug Report that

attributed the increase in

methamphetamine production to ethnic

insurgencies in Shan State readying to fight

the government by selling more drugs to

purchase arms.

“The Kokang and Wa are producing at

the normal rate, no more, no less. The

increase is due to the involvement of the

militia groups, he said. “Now with the Wa

and Kokang, these people can produce but

they can’t transport without the co-

operation of the militia groups. If they do

it by themselves they are caught.”

This explains the number of seized

drugs in Burma. UNODC Regional

Representative Gary Lewis stated at the

release of the 2010 World Drug Report in

Bangkok, that 23 million methamphetamine

pills were seized in Burma

last year, up from one

million in 2008. Lewis said

the numbers likely reflect a

surge in production, rather

than crime prevention.

Khun Seng, however,

while agreeing that more

seizures meant more

production, said that was

only part of the picture. The

military was particular

about where the seizures

came from. That is, when

the seizures were not

fabricated. Militia-produced

drugs almost always made

it across the border, he said.The Kokang, a ceasefire group well

known for drug production and traffickingalong the Sino-Burmese border, wererecently attacked by the Burmese army fortheir refusal to join the Border Guard Forceand all their drugs were seized. The regimelong turned a blind eye to the Kokang’s drugoperations and even publicised the areaas a “drug-free zone” after its eradicationcampaign, but in August last year this allchanged and the regime announced amassive seizure of drugs in the Kokangarea, while driving more than 37,000refugees into China.

“Seizures are irrelevant and are madeonly when the authorities want to putpressure on, for instance, the UWSA(United Wa State Army), for political andsecurity reasons,” noted Burma expert BertilLintner.

The UWSA, armed with 30,000soldiers, is the largest ceasefire group toreject the junta’s proposal to become partof the Border Guard Force and the militaryhas turned up the heat as the electionapproaches. Much of the seized drugs lastyear are believed to have come from theKokang and Wa – seizures that would neverhave happened in the past.

“Proceeds from the drug trade werealways a major source of income forseveral rebel armies in Burma, before andafter the ceasefires,” Lintner said. “But theBurmese government and the UN chose toturn a blind eye to the traffic as long asthe ceasefire groups were on good termswith the government. Now, when some ofthe ceasefire armies are resisting thegovernment’s demands that they transformtheir respective armies into Border GuardForces, they are suddenly being accusedof trading in drugs, which they have alwaysdone.”

The new political order

The new drug economy that the

Burmese authorities have built in Burma will

only worsen as the regime’s crusade for

power and control intensifies in the run-up

to the election. Lintner anticipates the drug

trade will eclipse what was seen in the 1990s.

“In 1990, only opium was produced, and

the derivative heroin,” he said. “The

production increased dramatically in the

1990s, and now is back to what it was 20

years ago. Plus methamphetamines, which

were unknown in the Burmese sector of the

Golden Triangle 20 years ago.”

In 1997, then US Secretary of State

Madeleine Albright knew all too well where

Burma’s drug trade would lead when she

aptly stated, “Drug traffickers who once spent

their days leading mule trains down jungle

tracks are now leading lights in Burma’s new

market economy and leading figures in its

new political order.”

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

8

Commentary

London – Burma’s generals havefinally announced Sunday, November 7thas the date of their “elections”. The factthat the elections have generated a lot moreinterest from the international communitythan from most ordinary people in Burma,says much about the prospect of theelection bringing significant change to thecountry.

This is not going to be an election tochoose a new government. It is an electionto choose a rubber-stamp parliamentpacked with allies of the dictatorship. Realpower is likely to lie in a National Defenceand Security Council, which will be full ofsoldiers and ex-soldiers. Burma has beenhere before. In 1974, General Ne Win alsobrought in a new constitution aimed atlegalising his rule, and giving it a civilianfront. He remained in power for more thana decade, before a new and even morebrutal dictatorship assumed control.

Burma’s elections do not signifydemocratic change. They are designed tofacilitate the transition from military tocivilian dictatorship, with the hope that ashowcase Parliament and governmentofficials in longyis and suits instead ofmilitary uniforms will be enough topersuade the international community todrop sanctions and diplomatic pressure.

Little has been left to chance, withopposition figures detained, a newconstitution designed to maintaindictatorship whoever wins the elections,and a 25 percent allocation for the militaryin parliament making it impossible toamend that constitution.

Election laws are designed to make iteven harder for those opposed todictatorship. They require parties to defendthe constitution; something a partycommitted to democracy could not dowithout compromising its principles. Theyalso require parties to expel membersserving a prison term.

This may or may not have meant thatthe National League for Democracy wouldhave had to expel its leader, Aung San SuuKyi, who is still under house arrest. It woulddefinitely have meant the NLD would beforced to expel more than 400 memberscurrently jailed for their peaceful activities.

Election laws go further in trying toexclude democratic opposition. Huge feesare incurred by any party wanting to takepart. Permission for public meetings hasto be applied for a week in advance to fourdifferent authorities, with numbers givenof who will attend and biographies of whowill speak. Party publications are alsosubject to censorship.

Many people in Burma are likely to votein the elections, but it is fair to say thatthe vast majority do not see hope of thembringing significant change. Some will votebecause they are afraid not to, somebecause they have some small hope andsome will not need to vote because, as inthe referendum, the generals will vote forthem. Even with the NLD boycotting thepolling, a rigged election process and aconstitution designed to maintaindictatorship, some governments andforeign observers are desperately tryingto put a positive spin on the elections,arguing something is better than nothing,or that more political space will be created.

None of the key indicators thatnormally take place from a regime in aprocess of reform, seen from South Africato the Soviet Union, are happening inBurma. Military operations are not beingscaled back, attacks against ethnicminorities continue. Political prisoners arenot being released, their numbers are ata record high. Media censorship is notbeing relaxed, and undercover Burmesejournalists are being increasingly targeted.Some ethnic political parties taking part inthe election hope that there may be morespace in regional parliaments for ethnicpeople to be able to do more to protecttheir culture, and use their own languagein schools. This may happen to some smalldegree. However, there are noguarantees.

Excited talk from some foreign

forward. Its efforts were on trying to reformthe dictatorship’s process rather thanfocusing on securing dialogue.

After the regime crushed the 2007uprising, UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari didget an agreement from it to meet Suu Kyi,but only a low-level government official wassent, and he had no authority to come toany kind of agreement. Ethnicrepresentatives did not even get a look-in.

Gambari met some ethnicrepresentatives on ceasefire with thedictatorship, and some were picked by thedictatorship to meet him. But he never mettop leaders from organisations such as theKaren National Union, Karenni NationalProgressive Party, or Restoration Councilof the Shan State, for fear of offendingthe dictatorship.

In June this year, The Elders, whichwas founded by Nelson Mandela andincludes former UN secretary general KofiAnnan as a member, issued a wake-up callto the international community. They saidthat the elections could not be free andfair, and called for the internationalcommunity to unite behind a UN-ledinitiative to secure dialogue. The messageis clear. It’s time to move on.

At the end of June, the G8 joined themin calling for dialogue as a solution to theproblems in Burma, specifically pinning theblame for lack of dialogue on thedictatorship. For 20 years, there have beenmore than 40 UN envoy visits to Burmawithout anything to show for it. What isneeded is high-level diplomaticengagement backed by effective, welltargeted, and coordinated political andeconomic pressure.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moonshould personally lead the UN effort topersuade the generals to enter intodialogue. He has the authority to call worldleaders, East and West, and insist they givehim their backing, for the first time uniting

the international community in theirapproach to Burma. It is a big challenge,and it will not be easy, but it stands a muchgreater chance of making progress inBurma than sitting with fingers crossedhoping the generals’ fake elections aregoing to bring change.(Published with the permission of BurmaCampaign UK. Portions of the report wereomitted due to space constraints. The fulltext can be accessed awww.burmacampaign.org.uk)

observers of a generational change asaging generals retire does not bring hopeto people who remember that so far everydictator has been replaced by another whowas even more brutal. Even the mostoptimistic observer is forced to agree thateven if there is some change, it will bevery small.

Burma Campaign UK believes it is timeto move on from the focus on the elections,which are clearly nothing close to a solutionto the country’s problems, and instead getback to what the international communityhas agreed is the way forward. Dialogue.

Everyone agrees this is the wayforward, and the NLD and ethnic groupshave agreed to this dialogue. It is thedictatorship that refuses to enter into suchdialogue. It is sometimes forgotten, butcalls for targeted economic sanctions camenot as a way to bring down the dictatorship,but mostly as a way to help force thedictatorship to enter into dialogue.

However, despite the generalconsensus that there should be dialogue,for the past seven years the UN and manygovernments have allowed themselves tobe diverted by the dictatorship’s “road mapto democracy”. Instead of focusing ongetting the generals to sit down at thenegotiating table, the focus has been ontrying to reform the roadmap.

When the National Convention, whichdrafted the principles of the constitution,was set up, the focus was on making it amore open process with input from the NLDand others. Every proposal by the UN wasrejected. When the committee was set upwhich drafted the actual constitution, theUN asked for the process to be moreinclusive, they were ignored. When thereferendum was held, the UN asked for itto be free and fair. It was not.

For seven years the dictatorshipsuccessfully diverted the UN from focusingon what it knew to be the proper way

junta] are not innovators, normanufacturers, this is simply rent-seeking.”

There is no new middle class comingto the fore and demanding their rights andexercising newfound power as consumers,he said.

A classic example of what Turnelldescribed as the “madness” of thegenerals was a recent decision to banonion exports to combat a domesticshortage.

“Farmers had entered into contracts,they had contractual obligations,” he said.But those obligations would now bebreached because of the generals’ actions.And so a promising industry had been cutoff at the knees, he added.

He compared the current onion banwith that of beans and pulses a few yearsago. Once the bean and pulse exportindustry had been ruined by export bans,the generals left it alone – in the ensuingit has been making something of acomeback.

“There is no path to anything [forproducers] other than mere survival,” hesaid.

Turnell bemoaned the argument thatdevelopment would lead to greater rightsfor the people of Burma and a moreequitable system would bloom with time.“If it was genuinely developing then youwould have to say ‘well, that’s better thannothing’, but it’s just not happening,” he said.

Junta continued from page 12

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

9

World

Chiang Mai – Myanmar Ivanhoe

Copper, the blacklisted joint venture that

runs Burma’s largest mine, uses

Singaporean banks to evade Western

sanctions against Burma when it receives

payments for copper from its controversial

Monywa mine, a copy of a copper sales

contract reveals.

Monywa, a city in Burma’s

northwestern division of Sagaing, is about

140 kilometres from Mandalay on the

eastern bank of the Chindwin River.

An April 2010 contract for the sale of

copper produced at the Monywa copper

mine obtained by Mizzima shows that

Myanmar Ivanhoe Copper Company

Limited (MICCL), which runs Burma’s

largest mine, uses a Singaporean bank

account to circumvent Western sanctions

against Burma when it receives overseas

funds used to purchase copper produced

at the controversial mine.

The document reveals that funds for

purchases are to be sent to “the account

of Myanma Investment and Commercial

Bank (MICB) with Overseas Chinese

Banking Corporation (OCBC), Singapore,

a beneficiary MICCL account at MICB.” Like

MICCL, MICB is also on the US

government’s list of entities blacklisted for

their links to the Burmese ruling junta.

Critics have accused the Singapore-

based OCBC of assisting the Burmese

regime in hiding the tremendous wealth it

receives from natural gas sales.

Citing confidential sources, the legal

rights NGO Earth Rights International (ERI)

first reported last year that OCBC is one of

two Singaporean banks with which the

Burmese regime deposits the billions of

dollars it receives from the lucrative Yadana

natural gas project involving France’s Total,

American giant Chevron and Thailand’s

state-owned oil firm PTTEP.

Sean Turnell, an economist at Sydney’s

Macquarie University and editor of Burma

Economic Watch, told Mizzima his research

had found that as with natural gas

revenues, revenues from state-owned or

co-owned mining projects were

inaccurately recorded in Burma’s national

budget using a deliberately flawed

exchange rate.

Turnell remarked, “Al l foreign-

exchange revenues accruing to state-

owned entities in Burma are recorded at

the country’s grossly overvalued exchange

rate. This has the effect of hiding the vast

part of these revenues [more than 90

percent] from Burma’s public accounts, and

allows foreign exchange to be secreted

away offshore for the regime’s private use,

and at the expense of the people they

exploit and misrule.”

Canadian Friends of Burma (CFOB)

executive director Tin Maung Htoo, a long-

time critic of Ivanhoe’s activities in Burma,

agreed with Turnell’s assessment. The

exiled activist told Mizzima he was not

surprised to see definitive evidence of

what he had long suspected.

“Now we have absolute proof that

Ivanhoe’s Burmese operations have

resulted in millions of dollars going to a

secret offshore junta-controlled hard-

currency fund,” Tin Maung Htoo said.

“We’re certain that this money is not being

used for badly needed social services but

instead going for the Burmese generals’

personal use, military weapons buying

sprees and clandestine missile and nuclear

programmes.”

Tin Maung Htoo said the documented

evidence of MICCL’s using a Singaporean

bank to skirt Western sanctions was yet

one more reason why the Canadian

Government of Stephen Harper should

investigate Ivanhoe Mines’ Burmese

operations and their controversial exit from

Burma. He explained, “Ivanhoe Mines has

conducted themselves in a thoroughly

disgraceful manner for many years.

Ivanhoe’s senior executives, several of

whom were on the board of MICCL, were

clearly in a position to be aware that their

joint venture was deliberately evading

sanctions.”

Ivanhoe Mines is accused of secretly

selling its 50 percent stake in MICCL, the

joint venture that operated Burma’s

Monywa copper mine, to cronies of the

Burmese regime linked to Chinese

weapon’s firm Norinco and mining giant

Chinalco. A trusted source with inside

knowledge of Burma’s recent wave of

privatisations confirmed to Mizzima that

this was indeed what happened late last

year.

If Ivanhoe’s 50 percent stake in MICCL

was sold or given to cronies of the junta,

it is a violation of Canadian sanctions

against Burma.

In February 2007, Ivanhoe placed its

50 percent stake in MICCL under the

direction of an ostensibly “independent

trust”, which was given the task of selling

Ivanhoe’s Burmese assets. However,

despite repeated requests from media and

human rights groups, Ivanhoe has so far

refused to disclose the individuals or firms

that operate or oversee the trust.

Thomas Maung Shwe

Ivanhoe mine evades sanctions via Singaporean bank

Chiang Mai – The US government haspledged its support to calls for a UNcommission of inquiry to investigate humanrights abuses committed by the Burmeseregime. Britain, Australia, the CzechRepublic and Slovakia have alreadyindicated they support the launch of suchan investigation.

In March, the UN special rapporteuron human rights in Burma, Tomas OjeaQuintana, issued a report to the UN HumanRights Council which called for the UN tofurther investigate rights abuses committedby the Burmese regime and considerlaunching a commission of inquiry with aspecific fact-finding mandate to addressthe question of international crimes.

According to Quintana’s March report,“in Burma there is evidence of ‘gross andsystematic’ human rights abuses whichsuggest the abuses are a state policy thatinvolves authorities in the executive,military and judiciary at all levels.” Hisreport also stated that in Burma the“possibility exists that some of thesehuman rights violations may entailcategories of crimes against humanity orwar crimes under the terms of the Statuteof the International Criminal Court.”

The Washington Post reports sourcesin the US government say the Obamaadministration is also consideringstrengthening existing financial sanctionsthat target the Burmese regime.

Tin Maung Htoo, Executive Director ofthe Canadian Friends of Burma (CFOB),told Mizzima, “Quintana’s thorough reportstrongly suggests that the UN furtherinvestigate the systematic human rightsviolations in Burma. His report shouldn’tjust be ignored; member states of the UNincluding Canada must push the UN tofollow through on Quintana’srecommendations and further investigatethe human rights violations which have

US supports UN commission of inquiryThomas Maung Shwe

occurred.”Win Tin, a co-founder of Burma’s

National League for Democracy, in anAugust interview called on the governmentof Canada and other nations to support theappeal for a UN commission of inquiry intohuman rights abuses committed by theBurmese regime.

Win Tin told Mizzima, “In Burmahuman rights violations are very severeand this is why we need such aninvestigation to document what hashappened.” The close ally of Aung SanSuu Kyi said the military regime’s violencehad also “taken a sharp toll on the country’sethnic people.”

Noting that 63 elected Canadianmembers of Parliament and 12 Senatorshad signed a petition urging the Canadiangovernment to push the UN for such aninquiry, Win Tin appealed, “I hope Canadatakes this opportunity to advocate for a UNcommission of inquiry because this is whatBurma needs.”

A Myanmar Ivanhoe Copper commercial plant. Photo: MICCL website. Tomas Ojea Quintana

study published in the US peer-reviewedscientific journal, Proceedings of theNational Academy of Sciences, states thatglobal warming has cut rice yields in partsof Asia between 10 and 20 percent in thepast 25 years.

Even small rises in global temperatureswill drive down rice production in theregion, the biggest grower of the grain thatmillions of world’s poor depend on as astaple food, the study warned.

The findings, by a research teamheaded by economist Jarrod Welch of theUniversity of California in San Diego,showed that crops were affected bywarmer nights, which require rice plantsto respire more, thus leaving them withoutenough energy left to photosynthesise inthe daytime.

The study included locations inThailand, Vietnam and the Philippines – notBurma, but its climate is similar enough tohave the same effect. Six years of datafrom 227 irrigated rice farms in six majorrice-growing countries in Asia, whichproduces more than 90 per cent of theworld’s rice.

“The findings on changing night-timetemperature and the impact on rice yieldsfrom these nearby countries are relevantto Burma,” Dr. Roland Buresh, principalscientist at the International Rice ResearchInstitute (IRRI) in the Philippines, said. “Theclimate would be comparable.”

Moreover, the Contribution of workinggroup II (impacts, adaptation andvulnerability) impacts to the FourthAssessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange in 2007, concluded thattemperature increases of more than three

degrees Celsius were stressful to all cropsin all regions.

A further study published in 2004 byDr. Peng Shaobing of the IRRI initiallyinvestigated the increase in nighttemperatures and its effect on ricecultivation. Peng’s team found that grainyield declined 10 percent for each rise ofone degree Celsius during the dry season.

Yet, although climate change issignificant, Buresh said rice yields in Burmahave bigger factors affecting crops becauseBurma’s rice fields are rain-fed versus theirrigated, intensive farming techniquesseen in other Asian countries.

“The main factor affecting productionin Burma is rain and inputs,” he said.

Inputs refer to fertilisers, chemicals andequipment used in farming.

Farmers are often strapped for moneyto purchase these inputs. The Post-NargisPeriodic Review III Tripartite Core Groupmade up of the UN, ASEAN and the Burmesemilitary government reported that theprovision of agricultural inputs remainedlimited and that farm yields were smallerthan those before Nargis.

A rice farmer in the Irrawaddy Deltasaid he noticed a drastic rise in temperaturelast month.

“July became too hot to plant my seedsso I’ve had to wait,” he said.

Although he said he was unaware of alarge drop in his crop yields over the years,factors such as the drought, especially post-Nargis, certainly made his job more difficult.

Even so, the government may bepreparing for rice shortages. Mizzimareported in early August that authoritiesfrom the Rangoon Division Peace andDevelopment Council banned all riceshipments to Arakan State and TenasserimDivision without explanation.

Warmer continued from page 5

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

10

India-Burma Relations

Chiang Mai – Burmese Senior GeneralThan Shwe’s recent state visit to India wasdepicted by many Burma observers andthose committed to the restoration ofdemocracy in Burma as further evidenceof New Delhi shamefully reaching out to abrutal military dictatorship and ignoringIndia’s own storied democratic tradition.

As far as New Delhi is concerned,however, since the mid-1990s the country’sbest interests ha been served in pursuit ofits “Look East” policy, which seeks to benefitfrom Burma’s location and natural andhuman resources, while countering thegrowing influence of Beijing in the region.The policy has essentially placed promotionof democracy in Burma on the back-burner.

What happened? How has the world’slargest democracy become divorced fromthe 20-year struggle for democracyspearheaded by Aung San Suu Kyi?

While for Burma’s primary politicalopposition, the National League forDemocracy (NLD), the question for Burmais very much one of democracy, it hasnever been the same for the Indianleadership. For New Delhi, it has alwaysbeen a matter of power projection.

With the fall of the Berlin Wall in late1989, a wave of democracy began tosweep across many parts of the world, ifnot in quality at least in quantity. Accordingto rights think tank Freedom House, only69 countries, or 41 percent of all stategovernments, were democratic in naturein 1989. By 1995, this figure hadskyrocketed to 115 countries, or 60 percentof all governments.

Looking to further Indian nationalinterests in cultivating relationships withBurma’s prospective power brokers, NewDelhi extended a supportive hand toBurma’s embattled pro-democracyopposition, which in 1990 had emergedvictorious in general elections.

However, tellingly, from 1995 to 2009 thepercentage of democracies in the worldremained unchanged. During the sameperiod of time, New Delhi, as evidenced inthe warm reception allotted the Burmesedelegation during the course of their five-day visit last month, has consistentlyrefrained from entering into politicaldiscourse in its relations with Naypyitaw.

Meanwhile, as part of a growing culturalexchange programme between India andBurma, New Delhi continues to expandassistance in educational opportunities forjunta-supported Burmese to study at Indianinstitutions – with a hopeful eye to

the year, at present offers precious littleincentive for major investors in Burma tocourt – especially for New Delhi, who neednot fear a sudden democratic overhaul.

India’s Burma policy, though, is alsowrongly envisioned. But it does not stumbleon a question of democracy, at least notwith respect to Burma. If New Delhi is tomaximise its relationship with Naypyitaw,security and general conditions mustimprove in India’s northeast; and this isfirst and foremost an issue for Indianleadership to address. It is also a policyissue in which there are inherentcontradictions, as development of theregion could also pave the road of furtherChinese encroachment.

India’s foreign policy agenda regardingBurma, while flawed, is not anti-democratic. Neither was it ever premisedon pro-democratic leanings. Thepromotion of systems of government wereand are instead tools to be used whenconvenient to further what is a pro-Indiaagenda – or, possibly more accurately, apro-New Delhi agenda.

In the period from the late 1980s to mid-1990s it was deemed appropriate toincorporate pro-democracy sentiments intoIndia’s rhetoric of Burma policy with an aimto enhancing bilateral relations with thecountry’s prospective leadership. By themid to late 1990s, however, the rhetoricchanged with the realisation that the NLDwas not an integral component of Burma’spower matrix – a point driven home by theparty’s decision in late 1995 to withdrawfrom the (constitution-drafting) NationalConvention process.

What then could be done to bridge therift between India and the NLD?

New Delhi would welcome a democratictransition in Burma, not least because it couldpotentially assist in countering China’sinfluence. However, India is only going tosupport players sitting at the table and activein tangible policy debate. The onus, thus, restson the NLD to once again make itself politicallyrelevant, beyond an ideological platform, tothe overriding non-political interests of Indianleadership. And the present, negative agendaof relying on discredited elections looks to bea losing proposition, as New Delhi – in theabsence of any viable alternative – wouldsurely continue its present course.

Those in opposition to the polling arecalling on the United Nations and theAssociation for Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) to use the poll’s established dateto exert greater scrutiny on a deeply flawedelectoral process and press for the releaseof more than 2,100 political prisoners.

The UN and ASEAN are often viewedas being too conciliatory with regard toBurma policy.

“The national elections announced byBurma’s military government are designedto further entrench military rule with acivilian facade,” postured Human RightsWatch in a statement issued following theelection date. Another rights group said theUN’s focus on the polls in Burma wasmisdirected.

The United States, the European Union,Canada, Australia and many Burmese andinternational rights groups have called thepolls a sham if the junta continues to shutout thousands of imprisoned politicalopponents, including Nobel Peace Prize-winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who is expectedto be freed six days after the polls, havingspent 15 of the past 21 years in some formof detention.

“They [Burma’s ruling generals] aregoing to hold the election before the releaseof Aung San Suu Kyi because they want tomarginalise her from any activities,” NLDvice-chairman Tin Oo told Mizzima. “Theydon’t want any appearance by her duringthe run-up to the election because themilitary junta is worried that most Burmese

nationals would come out to follow herspeeches.”

The election will be the first since1990, when the NLD won a landslidevictory, a result the junta rejected as itclung to power and placed her underdetention, while also arresting hundredsof her colleagues.

“It is a deliberate attack againstopposition groups, as the election lawseffectively bar Aung San Suu Kyi and allpolitical prisoners,” Dr. Myint Cho, aspokesman for Burma Campaign Australiasaid.

The electoral laws promulgated in earlyMarch banned anyone who is serving orhas served a prison term from taking partin the upcoming elections. Soon after, theNLD announced a boycott of the polls,declaring the laws undemocratic and unfair.

Burma has changed its constitutionseveral times since gaining independencefrom British rule. The third and currentstatute was promulgated in 2008 after awidely condemned referendum was helddays after Cyclone Nargis tore through theIrrawaddy Delta, killing 140,000 people andleaving more than two million affected orhomeless. It reserves 25 percent of seatsin all three legislatures for the military.

Reaction from rights advocates camethe day after UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in New York he had “taken note”of the announcement while reiterating callsfor the junta “to honour their publicly statedcommitments to hold inclusive, free andfair elections.”

However, Mark Farmaner, director of

Election continued from page 1 Burma Campaign UK, cautioned the UN’suse of the elections as a focal point wasmisdirected.

“The new constitution in Burma meansthat even if the election in Burma is freeand fair, the dictatorship remains, so wethink it’s time to stop focusing on theprocess of the election, and start focusingon what the UN should be doing, which isnegotiating for tripartite dialogue amongthe dictatorship, Aung San Suu Kyi’sNational League for Democracy andgenuine ethnic representatives,” stipulatedFarmaner.

“Even if Aung San Suu Kyi was allowedto take part it would not be significantbecause the constitution keeps thedictatorship in power, because that is whatthe constitution is designed to do, so youwould have to have the constitutionrewritten,” Farmaner furthered.

Western governments also weighed inon the election and conditions under whichit is being organised.

US Senate Republican leader MitchMcConnell dismissed Burma’sannouncement as a “charade” and a“mockery of the democratic process.”

Meanwhile, Australia expressed “gravereservations” about Burma’s plan to holdits first elections in 20 years and ForeignMinister Stephen Smith was alsoconcerned about the elections’ legitimacy,the Australian Associated Press reported.

“We have grave reservations about theelection process and the country’s highlyrestrictive political environment,” he toldthe news agency.

Smith said Australia had repeatedlyurged Burma to allow freedom of speechand assembly and to work with the UN tomake the election transparent.

Britain was even less reserved in itsresponse, writing the polls off as a long-awaited but lost chance. Foreign OfficeMinister Jeremy Browne said, “Theseelections are set to be held under deeplyoppressive conditions designed toperpetuate military rule.”

“The Burmese people should have a realchance to vote for change. Instead, the firstopportunity in 20 years for Burma’s peopleto have a more open, stable and prosperoussociety has been missed,” Browne said.

In April, Prime Minister Thein Sein andmore than 20 other senior generals withministerial portfolios resigned from themilitary and registered with the new pro-government Union Solidarity andDevelopment Party to contest the elections.

“No one should be fooled. The generalsmay be exchanging their khakis for civilianclothes, but these polls are still a carefullyarranged plan to keep power in the handsof the military junta,” Elaine Pearson, actingchief of Human Rights Watch Asia Division,said.

The group said it also had concerns thatintimidation of people and political partieswould intensify.

Burma is subject to arms, trade,financial and travel sanctions, mostlyimposed by Western countries, due to thejunta’s human rights violations and violentsuppression of opposition and ethnicminority groups.

grooming the future leadership of thecountry. Acceptance of more Burmesescholars to study at Indian universities wasagreed upon during last month’s exchangebetween Than Shwe and Indian PrimeMinister Dr. Manmohan Singh.

The harsh lesson to be drawn is thatBurma’s pro-democracy opposition, asepitomised by the NLD, failed to capitaliseon its political prospects in an acceptableperiod of time. New Delhi, accordingly,reoriented itself away from a losing bet.

Opposition voices, however, are quick topoint out that even with a reorientedforeign policy New Delhi consistentlyappears to lose out to Beijing in battles tosecure investment inside Burma.Therefore, support for the country’spolitical opposition would enhance India’sstatus in future bilateral relationsconducted between democraticneighbours.

But, the logic is faulty. India loses out toChinese interests (and not always by anycount, with annual trade approaching theUS$1 billion mark) because of advantagesinherent in the Sino-Burmese partnership.Such links include Burma’s north-southgeographic orientation and deeperhistorical and cultural legacies lendingthemselves to less unfavourable socialbarriers.

Nonetheless, no matter the politicalorientation of Burma, if it is to benefit indevelopment from its giant neighbours, itwill necessarily have to remain significantlyengaged with both New Delhi and Beijing.The former understands this, and knowsthat if need be it can always play thedemocracy card at a belated hour,confident that India will be broadlysupported by North American andEuropean leadership.

For Beijing, the de facto realisation ofBurmese and Chinese shared interests isfeared jeopardised by the effort expendedby Burmese pro-democracy oppositionelements in vilifying the present role ofcommunist China in Burma. Even thoughthe closing, in the most extreme case, ofthe north-south corridor linking China andBurma would retard pursuit of Burmesenational interests, concern remains that anew Burmese leadership would opt toshame Beijing, resulting in a loss ofexisting and future Chinese investment inthe Southeast Asian country.

New Delhi and Beijing, in short, arefocused on Indian and Chinese interests,respectively. As such, both countries arewilling to court whoever the power brokersare in Burma. The NLD, holding no politicalclout inside the country and now havingopted to boycott elections at the close of

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

11

Inside Burma

Chiang Mai – HIV prevalence rates in

areas controlled by ceasefire groups in the

northern Burmese state of Kachin are more

than 16 times the average for the country,

resulting in concerns an epidemic is

imminent if the region fails to receive

sufficient help, an NGO said of its survey

of the situation.

Since 2008, the Burmese junta has

denied health organisations access to the

region to help battle the virus that can lead

to AIDS, and this year direct-help

programmes were stopped.

The regional NGO conducted a survey

of HIV infection rates in two special regions

in Kachin State for about three months. It

found that at least 11 percent of the

regions’ total population was infected with

the virus.

The average nationwide HIV infection

rate is 0.67 percent, according to a 2007

World Health Organisation report.

Kachin Special Region 1 is controlled

by the New Democratic Army (Kachin) and

Kachin Special Region 2 is controlled by

the Kachin Independence Organisation

(KIO).

“The survey is highly critical of health

standards in the region. Most of the HIV

victims are young people, between 15 and

35 years old. In my area, there are about

500 HIV patients,” a KIO official said on

condition of anonymity.

The direct-help programmes of NGOs

for HIV carriers were stopped this year

amid existing restrictions on health

Kachin State HIV rate 16 times national averagePhanida

organisations entering the region, so the

situation has become very serious, the

official said.

“KIO is a revolutionary organisation,

so we don’t have enough money to battle

AIDS. It would be good if AZG could help

the region effectively. But, their help is not

enough. Moreover, the junta does not

allow NGOs to enter the region and there

are drug-related cases as well,” another

KIO official told Mizzima, referring to the

Dutch medical aid organisation AZG.

In 2008, AZG tried to enter Laiza in

Kachin State, under KIO control, to conduct

programmes to battle the spread of AIDS,

but former North Command chief General

Ohn Myint denied access, a ban thatcontinues.

“If the efforts are decreased, thedisaster will be very serious. The situationdemands extra efforts. We need to taketime to educate residents,” an employeefrom a regional NGO said.

Former KIO chairman Bran Saing had

announced that one of the reasons the

ceasefire deal was signed with the

Burmese military junta was his serious

concern that AIDS would have a great

impact on the region, a KIO official recalled.

“We don’t have enough doctors and

healthcare educated people, so though we

battle against AIDS, we do not succeed,”

he told Mizzima.

though the electoral rules are not fair,

we still need to monitor the polls to know

whether the junta can follow its own laws

even if they [the laws] are preferential

to it [the junta],” Nyan Win quoted Suu

Kyi as saying.

The boycott was officially decided at

a meeting of seven Central Executive

Committee members and eight Central

Committee members at the home of NLD

Vice-Chairman Tin Oo on August 19th. It

said the decision was reached because

the junta’s 2008 constitution and electoral

laws for this year’s polls were “unfair and

one-sided”.

At the meeting on August 24th, Suu

Kyi and her lawyers also discussed legal

cases regarding her home renovations

and her appeal against the sentence that

extended her house arrest, Nyan Win

said, without disclosing case details. He

added that Suu Kyi was in good health.

While Rangoon Central Court on May

10th granted Suu Kyi special leave to

appeal against the extension of her house

arrest, it has failed to set a date for the

hearing.American citizen John Yettaw entered

Suu Kyi’s property after swimming acrossInya Lake days before her latest periodof house arrest was to finish. Over thevisit, Suu Kyi was charged under section22 of the Law to Safeguard the StateAgainst the Dangers of those Desiring toCause Subversive Acts and sentenced tothree years in prison by the North DistrictCourt in Insein Prison on August 11th,2009.

The term was later reduced by halfto 18 months.

Suu Kyi continued from page 1

Than Shwe continued from page 1

Replacing them will be former AdjutantGeneral Lieutenant General Thura MyintAung and former Bureau of SpecialOperations (BSO) 3 chief LieutenantGeneral Ko Ko, who have becomeCommander-in-Chief of Defence Servicesand Deputy Commander-in-Chief ofDefence Services, respectively.

Former BSO 2 chief General Min AungHlaing has become the new No. 3 incommand as the Joint Chief of Staff of theArmy, Navy and Air Force. This powerfulposition was held until recently by GeneralThura Shwe Mann.

Following Burma’s first nationwideelections in two decades on November 7th,the government will be formed by a civilianpresident chosen by the upper and lower

houses following the nomination of threepeople. The two unsuccessful candidatesbecome vice-presidents.

The reshuffle means it is possible thatthe junta’s leader since 1992, 77-year oldThan Shwe, can be president, while closeallies Muang Aye, 72, and Thura ShweMan, 62, could emerge as vice-presidents.If that happened, it would confirm thebelief among internal and external Burmawatchers that the polls represent anattempt by the ruling generals to merelyexchange uniforms for suits and shore uptheir power.

Around 27 military officials andgovernment ministers including PrimeMinister Thein Sein resigned from themilitary mid-year and formed the UnionSolidarity and Development Party (USDP).Stepping out of fatigues means the top

leaders can contest the polls as USDPcandidates.

Analysts said it was likely Than Shwewould remain head of state as leader ofthe State Peace and Development Council(SPDC) – the junta’s name for itself – untilthe president is selected after the election.

In the 1990 polls, Nobel Peace laureateAung San Suu Kyi scored a massive pollwin at the head of the National League forDemocracy party, but the junta ignored thewin, clung on to power and flatly voidedthe result.

The junta’s controversial 2008constitution sets out how the vote will electlawmakers for parliament, the senate and14 regional assemblies, but not theexecutive branch of the government itself.

Naypyitaw sources said Thura MyintAung will be responsible for filling the 25

percent military quota, which will amountto hundreds of lawmakers in all three typesof legislatures, as set out by theconstitution.

Major General Wei Lwin, former chiefof the Naypyitaw Military Command, hasreplaced General Thiha Thura Tin AungMyint Oo as Quartermaster General, aposition the latter vacated in November.

At least ten lieutenant generals havealso thus far resigned to see their positionsin the armed forces replaced by majorgenerals including former militarycommand chiefs.

It is predicted the former officers willcontest in the November 7th polling. Detailsof the latest reshuffling of Burma’s armedforces are still under investigation.

Below are the names of other newlypromoted senior officers and their ranks:

Adjutant General Coastal Command chief Major General Khin Zaw Oo

Military Appointment General Rangoon Command chief Major General Win Myint

Rangoon Command LID 77 chief Colonel Tun Than

Military Intelligence Headquarters Southwestern Command chief Major General Kyaw Swe

Chief of Military Ordnance Deputy Defence Minister Major General Thein Htay

BSO 1 - Kachin State, Mandalay Division, Chin State, Sagaing Division

BSO 4 - Karen State, Mon State, Tenasserim Division

BSO 2 - Shan State, Karenni State

BSO 3 – Pegu Division, Irrawaddy Division

Northwestern Command chief Major General Myint Soe

Current Post Officer and former Post

Southeastern Command chief Major General Thet Naing Win

Northeastern Command chief Major General Aung Than Htut

Southern Command chief Major General Hla Min

AbbreviationsBSO – Bureau of Special OperationsLID – Light Infantry Division

September 2010 Vol.8 No. 9

12

Mizzima Monthly Journal

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Chiang Mai – The Burmese

junta’s chief negotiator with

armed ceasefire groups has

threatened the Wa army with

unlawful association charges and

military force, a Wa leader says.

Lieutenant General Ye Myint,

the head of Military Affairs

Security (MAS), the junta’s

military intelligence wing, said

the United Wa State Army

(UWSA) would be declared in

breach of laws governing

unlawful association and that the

State Peace and Development

Council (the junta) would next

month deploy its army units to

effect those charges against

them.

His comments came during

a meeting with UWSA

representative and political

consultative committee chairman

Lai Kham at Tanyan in northern

Shan State on August 20th. He

was there to coax the group into

the SPDC’s Border Guard Force

(BGF), which would bring the Wa

troops under junta commanders.

Naypyitaw appeared angry

with the Wa over its refusal to

accept the BGF offer and also said

it would deploy administrative

units to the Wa-controlled areas

on the eastern bank of the

Salween River, a Wa leader

present at the talks said.

The 20,000-strong Wa army

is not placing too much emphasis

on the threats, as Ye Myint has

given such ultimatums before, but

a Wa leader said his army would

refrain from making the first move

against junta troops.

“The Wa stand only for

negotiations. [Whether we] fight

or not depends only on them [the

SPDC], but all of us must defend

our territory, our compounds and

our homes if they are attacked.

We can say that the situation is

tense,” the Wa leader told

Mizzima.

The Wa decided to allow

polling for the elections on

November 7th in only two of the

six townships designated as their

“Wa Self-Administered Division”

as outl ined in the 2008

constitution. The permitted

townships are Hopang and

Metman (Mawpha).

Hopang and Metman are

controlled by junta troops while

the other four are controlled by

Wa troops. In a notification issued

by the Union Election Commission

on August 11th, the four

townships are mentioned as Pyithu

Hluttaw (Lower House)

constituencies while Hopan and

Wa army threatened with fresh military offensive

Ko Wild Metman are mentioned as State

Assembly constituencies.The area under dispute is Mai

Pauk District, which containsMengphang, Mantmein, Mai Pauk,Hotaung and Monyin townships.The Wa army has claimed it asits territory but the junta refusedto recognise the Wa claim.Monyin is reportedly designateda no-man’s-land.

“Now they [the junta] saythey’ll hold elections but thereare no [voter-]educationcampaigns. The people don’teven know what an election is.Not only in Wa State, the entirepopulation [of Burma] cried outthat the 2008 constitutionalreferendum was a farce. Most ofthe people did not know about it.There weren’t even anyinterpreters for that referendum,”a Wa villager said.

After meeting the Wadelegation, Ye Myint on the sameday met delegates from theEastern Shan State SpecialRegion No. 4, or the Menglaorganisation, led by San Leun, atTriangle Command headquartersbased in Kengtung. He urgedthem to also bring their troopsinto the junta-controlled BGF, aMengla source said.

However, the Mengla groupagain rejected the junta’s BGFoffer, along with polling in itsterritory, the source said.

Junta officials hedge on regime’s

post-election future

Bern Smith

Onions pile up at a market in Rangoon amid a recent ban on onionexports. Analysts asses the ban as another example of pooreconomic policy by Burma's military. Photo: Mizzima.

Sydney – Senior Burmesegovernment officials are saltingaway assets of all kinds andstashing funds in offshore banksin a sure sign insiders arebeginning to hedge their bets onthe ruling military junta’s future,a prominent Australian analystof the Burmese economy hassaid.

Professor Sean Turnell ofSydney’s Macquarie Universitysaid the officials were looking toguarantee their families’ futuresin Burma’s ruling class.

The Burma Economic Watchprincipal has addressed the USSenate committee on foreignrelations about the effectivenessof US sanctions, of which he is afirm believer.

Also a former Reserve Bankof Australia senior analyst, hesaid little could be expected fromASEAN, India or China when itcame to pushing for reformsfrom the junta, but there wassome hope from within themilitary clique.

“Some developments arequite dramatic at the moment,”he said. “There are sizeableholes in the regime, but that’sreally it on the upside.”

Turnell, who will next monthtravel to Washington to meetmembers of Congress, believessenior figures within Burma’smilitary administration are“running scared”.

“With the election coming,it’s obvious that it will be thefarce that everyone says it’s

going to be, and the most senior[generals] wil l sti l l haveeverything,” he said from hishome in Sydney.

He said some elements ofthe international community sawthese key figures as rising“robber barons” in Burmesesociety, comparable with theAmerican phenomenon of the1900s. In the United States, suchbusinessmen amassed greatpersonal fortunes, but nationalinstitutions such as libraries andfoundations and infrastructuresuch as railways were a positiveby-product of the era.

But the Burmese reality is farbleaker, Turnell argued, “In thelast six months what we’re reallyseeing is the rising of a criminalbusiness class, with theprivatisation push really a rapidcriminalisation of the economy.”

“They’re protectingthemselves more in the mannerof the mafia,” he said. “It’smorphing from this nationalistic,quasi-Stalinist state into acriminal economy,” where theindividual plays a moreprominent role than is healthyfor a developing economy, hesaid.

“We’re not going to get aHyundai or Daewoo out of this,”Turnell said, dismissing theargument of economic liberaliststhat democracy and humanrights evolve with economicdevelopment. “These people[with privileges granted by the

Junta continued on page 8