Bab II PTLP.doc

BAB II

BAB IIPERHITUNGAN KEBUTUHAN BAHAN DAN MESIN2.1 Peta Proses Operasi (Operation Process Chart (OPC))

OPC adalah sutu diagram yang menggambarkan langkah langkah proses yang dialami oleh bahan baku yang meliputi urutan proses operasi dan pemeriksaan.

Manfaat dari OPC adalah :

Sebagai sarana untuk menguraikan secara singkat, jelas dan sistematis tahapan tahapan yang harus di lalui oleh masing masing komponen benda kerja secara grafis dan simbolis

Sebagai alat analisis ramalan kebutuhan mesin - mesin / peralatan kerja dan kebutuhan bahan baku.

Dapat digunakan sebagai alat perhitungan effisiensi bagi masing masing simbol aktifitas.

Sebagai alat analisis perbaikan metode kerja dan latihan bagi tenaga kerja.

Simbol-simbol yang digunakan pada pembuatan OPC meliputi :Gambar 2.1. Simbol-simbol OPCPrinsip Dalam pembuatan OPC

Prinsip-prinsip dalam pembuatan OPC :

Pertama pada baris paling atas dinyatakan kepala peta dengan menulis Peta Proses Operasi yang diikuti nama objek benda kerja yang akan dibuat.

Material yang akan diproses diletakan diatas garis horizontal, yang menunjukan terjadinya perubahan proses.

Penomoran pada suatu kegiatan operasi diberikan secara berurutan sesuai dengan urutan operasi yang dibutuhkan untuk pembuatan produk tersebut atau sesuai dengan proses yang terjadi.

Penomoran terhadap suatu pemeriksaan diberikan tersendiri dan prinsipnya sama dengan penomoran untuk kegiatan operasi. Agar diperoleh gambar peta proses operasi yang baik, biasanya produk yang paling banyak mengalami proses operasi harus dipetakan terlebih dahulu, berarti dipetakan dengan garis vertikal sebelah kanan halaman kertas.

Setelah semua proses digambarkan dengan lengkap, pada akhir halaman sebelah kiri dicatat tentang ringkasan mengenai jumlah operasi, jumlah pemeriksaan, jumlah waktunya masing-masing serta jumlah total dari operasi dan pemeriksaan.

Berikut ini adalah OPC untuk produk lemari 3 pintu.

Gambar 2.2. OPC Lemari 3 Pintu2.2 Routing Sheet.

Langkah selanjutnya dalam merencanakan tata letak fasilitas dan pemindahan bahan adalah pembuatan Routing Sheet. 1. Informasi dalam pembuatan routing sheet

Routing sheet ini berisi informasi tentang :

Nomor, nama dan jumlah part

Nomor dan urut urutan aktivitas

Mesin dan peralatan yang digunakan

Waktu dan jumlah produksi

2. Kegunaan routing sheet

a) Untuk menghitung jumlah mesin yang dibutuhkan

b) Untuk menghitung jumlah part yang harus dipersiapkan dalam usaha memperoleh sejumlah produk yang diinginkan

3. Data yang diperlukan dalam perhitungan routing sheet

a) Kapasitas mesin (waktu standar operasi)

b) Presentase scrap

c) Effisiensi mesin

Contoh tabel routing sheet No OpDeskMsn /AlatProd Msn/ Jam%

ScrapBahan DimintaBahan DisiapkanEff Msn %Keb Msn TeoriKeb Mesin Aktual

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)

a. Cara pengisian Routing Sheet. Untuk mengisi kolom (1) sampai (5) gunakan data yang ada dalam OPC yang telah dibuat.

Untuk mengisi kolom (6) terlebih dahulu isikan jumlah produk akhir yang diinginkan pada setiap aktivitas.

Kolom (7) diisi dengan jumlah produk yang harus disiapkan pada awal aktivitas dengan memperhitungkan % scrap yang terbuang pada aktivitas yang bersangkutan. Karena bahan yang diproses akan mengalami pengurangan material, maka perlu diperhitungkan scrap yang terbuang selama proses berlangsung.

b. Contoh perhitungan untuk mengisi Routing Sheet

Produksi Mesin / jam = 60 menit ( 1 jam ) / waktu operasi pada OPC

% Scrap dari OPC

Bahan diminta dan bahan disiapkan : Perhitungan dimulai dari urutan terakhir dari setiap operasi = kpt x quantity

Contoh :

156 x 1 ( amplas bagian belakang lemari = 1, lihat Routing Sheet hasil Tugas II ) = 156, karena % scrap = 2, maka bahan disiapkan = 159,2 = bahan diminta pada proses sebelumnya ditambah skap. Perlu diperhatikan disini bahwa bahan yang digunakan adalah Kayu Jati.

Jika % scrap = 5, maka :

Bahan disiapkan = Bahan diminta / (100 % - % scarp)

= (100/(100%-2%)) x 156

= 159,2 unit satuan produk.Berikut ini perhitungan routing sheet untuk produk lemari 3 pintu :

Gambar 2.3. Routing Sheet Lemari 3 Pintu2.3 Multi Product Process Chart

Setelah kita memahami permasalahan OPC dan Routing Sheet maka langkah selanjutnya adalah pengisian tabel MMPC, dimana dalam pengisian itu terlebih dahulu harus mengetahui OPC dan routing sheetnya, sedangkan MPPC pendifisiannya adalah : Suatu diagram yang menunjukan urutan urutan proses untuk masing masing komponen yang akan diproduksi. Informasi yang dapat diperoleh adalah jumlah mesin aktual yang dibutuhkan.

Gambar 2.4 MPPC Lemari 3 Pintu= OPERASI , suatu kegiatan opersi terjadi apabila

benda-benda kerja mengalami perubahan sifat fisik

maupun kimiawi

= PEMERIKSAAN , suatu kegiatan pemeriksaan terjadi apabila benda kerja/ peralatan mengalami pemeriksaan baik segi kualitas maupun kuantitas

= PENYIMPANAN , suatu kegiatan penyimpanan terjadi apabila benda kerjadisimpan dalam jangka waktu yang cukup lama

= GABUNGAN , kegiatan ini terjadi apabila kegiatan operasi dan pemeriksaan dilakukan bersamaan atau dilakukan pada satu tempat kerja

II-7

jarak pesaing ke tujuan

Banjarnegara

NoSumber /pesaingTujuan / Pasar

KediriBondowosoBojonegoro

1Banyuwangi383136396

2Sampang213281196

3Bangkalan151219136

data lain - lain

Magelang

NoKabupaten/ KotaBiaya Produksi / unit (Rp)Biaya Distribusi/ unit/km (Rp)Harga Tanah m2 (Rp)Harga Bangunan m2 (RP)Upah Tenaga Kerja/Hari (Rp)Market share (%)Efesiensi mesin (%)

Bangunan TerbukaBangunan Tertutup

1Kediri1,100,0002,500800,0002,000,0003,500,00058,2503185

2Bondowoso1,000,0002,000400,0001,000,0001,750,00055,250

3Bojonegoro1,000,0002,000500,0001,250,0002,187,50057,000

4Banyuwangi1,000,0002,000400,0001,000,0001,750,00062,000

5Sampang1,000,0002,000350,000875,0001,531,25056,000

6Bangkalan1,000,0002,000350,000875,0001,531,25055,100

7Probolinggo1,000,0002,000700,0001,750,0003,062,50067,688

8Pasuruan1,000,0002,000800,0002,000,0003,500,000109,500

KeteranganGKediri

PBondowoso

FBojonegoro

SBanyuwangi

USampang

TBangkalan

NProbolinggo

MPasuruan

NCRNorth-west Corner Rules

data produksi lokasi pesaing

DATA PRODUKSI LOKASI PESAING

Pesaing 1 (Banyuwangi)Pesaing 2 (Sampang)Pesaing 3 (Bangkalan)

PeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100PeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100PeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/1004000

Jan-12162,5431,6651Jan-12219,1042,231Jan-12176,9971,810NoKabupatenData Persaing Lemari Tahun 2013 ( unit )

Feb-12169,0441,7302Feb-12225,6772,297Feb-12185,8461,898JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Mar-12180,8771,8493Mar-12236,9602,410Mar-12195,1381,9911Banyuwangi305,513314,678336,705356,907374,752397,237417,098442,123477,492515,691546,632573,963

Apr-12188,1121,9214Apr-12246,4382,504Apr-12206,8462,1082Sampang378,249397,161409,075433,619468,308482,357511,298536,862552,967597,204639,008683,738

May-12203,1602,0725May-12256,2952,603May-12217,1882,2123Bangkalan345,727363,013381,163407,844428,236445,365467,633505,043535,345551,405567,947590,664

Jun-12215,3492,1936Jun-12263,9832,680Jun-12228,0472,320

Jul-12230,4232,3447Jul-12271,9022,759Jul-12237,1682,412NoKabupatenData Persaing Lemari Tahun 2012 ( unit )

Aug-12248,8562,5298Aug-12290,9352,949Aug-12249,0262,530JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Sep-12256,3212,6039Sep-12299,6633,037Sep-12268,9482,7291Banyuwangi162,543169,044180,877188,112203,160215,349230,423248,856256,321274,263287,976296,615

Oct-12274,2632,78310Oct-12314,6463,186Oct-12290,4632,9452Sampang219,104225,677236,960246,438256,295263,983271,902290,935299,663314,646330,378353,504

Nov-12287,9762,92011Nov-12330,3783,344Nov-12310,7953,1483Bangkalan176,997185,846195,138206,846217,188228,047237,168249,026268,948290,463310,795320,118

Dec-12296,6153,00612Dec-12353,5043,575Dec-12320,1183,241

Jan-13305,5133,09513Jan-13378,2493,822Jan-13345,7273,497

Feb-13314,6783,18714Feb-13397,1614,012Feb-13363,0133,670

Mar-13336,7053,40715Mar-13409,0754,131Mar-13381,1633,852

Apr-13356,9073,60916Apr-13433,6194,376Apr-13407,8444,118

May-13374,7523,78817May-13468,3084,723May-13428,2364,322

Jun-13397,2374,01218Jun-13482,3574,864Jun-13445,3654,494

Jul-13417,0984,21119Jul-13511,2985,153Jul-13467,6334,716

Aug-13442,1234,46120Aug-13536,8625,409Aug-13505,0435,090

Sep-13477,4924,81521Sep-13552,9675,570Sep-13535,3455,393

Oct-13515,6915,19722Oct-13597,2046,012Oct-13551,4055,554

Nov-13546,6325,50623Nov-13639,0086,430Nov-13567,9475,719

Dec-13573,9635,78024Dec-13683,7386,877Dec-13590,6645,947

Forcast Produksi

MASTER

PeriodePermintaan

xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2

15050154.782-4.78222.87

255110454.5340.4660.22

354162954.286-0.2860.08

4522081654.037-2.0374.15

5653252553.78911.211125.69

6482883653.541-5.54130.70

7533714953.293-0.2930.09

8584646453.0444.95624.56

9554958152.7962.2044.86

105252010052.548-0.5480.30

115055012152.300-2.3005.29

124958814452.051-3.0519.31

Total786414131650641.000-0.000000000000014228.10

Standar Error

ba4.7760206198

-0.24855.030

Regresi Linier-1Regresi LinierRegresi Linier

Data Produksi BANYUWANGIData Produksi SAMPANGData Produksi BANGKALAN

TahunPeriodeProduksiTahunPeriodeProduksiTahunPeriodeProduksi

xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2|(y-y')/y*100%|xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2|(y-y')/y*100%|xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2|(y-y')/y*100%|

201211,6651665.4311330.798334.63111,978.350.20092808860.2009280886201212,2312231.0411736.785494.25244,287.840.2215356217201211,8101809.9711429.874380.10144,472.640.2100010313

21,7303460.8841500.161230.2853,028.340.13307531070.133075310722,2974593.5441929.794366.98134,671.310.15977912421,8983796.9241616.116282.3479,718.150.1487226657

31,8495546.3191669.524179.2532,129.130.0969541990.09695419932,4107228.892122.803286.8082,252.500.119022644331,9915974.1491802.358189.0235,729.500.0949203553

41,9217684.48161838.88782.236,762.300.04280481620.042804816242,50410017.52162315.812188.5735,557.900.075295294242,1088433.84161988.599119.8614,366.650.056847634

52,07210358252008.25063.354,013.270.03058040270.030580402752,60313014.75252508.82194.138,860.290.036162467352,21211059.4252174.84137.041,371.920.0167456768

62,19313160.94362177.61215.88252.100.00723848120.007238481262,68016078.98362701.830-22.00483.990.008209416562,32013922.82362361.082-40.611,649.340.017501673

72,34416409.61492346.975-2.757.540.0011710838072,75919313.14492894.839-135.8218,446.740.049227180472,41216881.76492547.324-135.6418,399.200.0562444611

82,52920228.48642516.33812.22149.370.0048335353082,94923594.8643087.848-138.5019,181.620.046958723282,53020242.08642733.565-203.3141,332.990.0803495201

92,60323428.89812685.701-82.496,804.760.0316881627093,03727329.67813280.857-244.2359,646.650.080426869692,72924565.32812919.807-190.3336,224.260.0697300261

102,78327826.31002855.064-72.435,246.650.02603068610103,18631864.61003473.866-287.4182,601.970.090195885102,94529446.31003106.048-161.4226,055.850.0548178367

112,92032117.361213024.427-104.6710,955.100.03584767040113,34436781.581213666.875-323.09104,390.070.0966255299113,14834627.451213292.290-144.3420,833.970.0458519929

123,00636073.81443193.789-187.6435,208.550.06241851550123,57542900.481443859.883-284.8481,135.790.0796755978123,24138894.161443478.531-237.3556,335.650.0732299088

2013133,09540236.691693363.152-268.0271,835.920.086594826802013133,82249692.371694052.892-230.4053,085.260.06027547072013133,49745464.511693664.773-167.5028,057.210.0478953157

143,18744614.921963532.515-345.74119,532.740.10849041120144,01256162.541964245.901-234.2954,892.420.0584033141143,67051381.821963851.014-180.8832,719.160.0492855527

153,40751105.752253701.878-294.8386,923.490.08653465570154,13161961.252254438.910-308.1694,962.740.074601526153,85257774.452254037.256-185.6334,456.980.0481941205

163,60957745.122563871.241-262.1768,733.490.07264218330164,37670019.042564631.919-255.7365,397.420.0584364912164,11865895.042564223.497-105.0611,037.070.0255090411

173,78864387.842894040.604-253.0864,051.280.06682038660174,72380292.362894824.928-101.8510,373.040.0215639208174,32273480.122894409.739-87.387,635.090.0202155743

184,01272222.663244209.966-197.6039,044.330.04924679850184,86487544.263245017.937-154.3723,829.190.0317394543184,49480885.73244595.981-102.3310,471.540.0227722508

194,21180008.623614379.329-168.3528,341.450.0399786280195,15397906.623615210.946-57.973,360.060.0112490234194,71689610.273614782.222-65.894,341.760.0139710452

204,46189224.64004548.692-87.467,649.610.01960491370.0196049137205,409108172.44005403.9554.6721.760.0008625255205,090101808.64004968.464121.9714,875.800.0239599417

214,815101113.324414718.05596.879,382.860.0201177060.020117706215,570116963.074415596.964-27.29744.950.0049004451215,393113262.454415154.705238.7456,999.110.0442657058

225,197114332.024844887.418309.4995,785.500.05955314190.0595531419226,012132264.884845789.973222.0749,313.840.0369370801225,554122189.14845340.947213.1045,413.030.0383689985

235,506126645.365295056.781449.54202,085.760.08164064070.0816406407236,430147891.845295982.982447.10199,896.860.0695323026235,719131547.815295527.188192.2836,972.290.0336188146

245,780138711.125765226.143553.49306,347.490.09576506920.0957650692246,877165057.125766175.991701.39491,947.000.1019849613245,947142719.365765713.430233.2154,387.030.039217149

Total30078683.31178308.5490078683.3-01,366,249.371.460.79Total30094953.311408876.65490094953.3101919341.206590941.59Total30085719.651285673.39490085719.65-0813856.2026869421.33

DIKETAHUIRUMUSSSEMSEMAPE0.0328442821DIKETAHUIRUMUSSSEMSEMAPEDIKETAHUIRUMUSSSEMSEMAPE

bay'=a+bx249.20356,9270.061bay'=a+bx295.36979,9730.066bay'=a+bx192.33733,9110.056

169.3631161.436193.0091543.776186.2421243.633

FORCAST DATA PRODUKSI BANYUWANGIFORCAST DATA PRODUKSI SAMPANGFORCAST DATA PRODUKSI BANGKALAN

PeriodeForecastTotal ProduksiTahunPeriodeForecastTotal ProduksiTahunPeriodeForecastTotal ProduksiTahun

xy'xy'xy'

255,39675,9242014256,36989,1672014255,90083,0882014

265,565266,562266,086

275,734276,755276,272

285,904286,948286,458

296,073297,141296,645

306,242307,334306,831

316,412317,527317,017

326,581327,720327,203

336,750337,913337,390

346,920348,106347,576

357,089358,299357,762

367,258368,492367,948

377,428100,3122015378,685116,9602015378,135109,9072015

387,597388,878388,321

397,767399,071398,507

407,936409,264408,693

418,105419,457418,880

428,275429,650429,066

438,444439,843439,252

448,6134410,036449,438

458,7834510,229459,625

468,9524610,422469,811

479,1214710,615479,997

489,2914810,8084810,183

499,460124,70120164911,001144,75320164910,369136,7262016

509,6305011,1945010,556

519,7995111,3875110,742

529,9685211,5805210,928

5310,1385311,7735311,114

5410,3075411,9665411,301

5510,4765512,1595511,487

5610,6465612,3525611,673

5710,8155712,5455711,859

5810,9845812,7385812,046

5911,1545912,9315912,232

6011,3236013,1246012,418

6111,493149,08920176113,317172,54620176112,604163,5442017

6211,6626213,5106212,791

6311,8316313,7036312,977

6412,0016413,8966413,163

6512,1706514,0896513,349

6612,3396614,2826613,536

6712,5096714,4756713,722

6812,6786814,6686813,908

6912,8476914,8616914,094

7013,0177015,0547014,281

7113,1867115,2477114,467

7213,3567215,4407214,653

7313,525173,47720187315,633200,34020187314,839190,3632018

7413,6947415,8267415,026

7513,8647516,0197515,212

7614,0337616,2127615,398

7714,2027716,4057715,584

7814,3727816,5987815,770

7914,5417916,7917915,957

8014,7108016,9848016,143

8114,8808117,1778116,329

8215,0498217,3718216,515

8315,2198317,5648316,702

8415,388623,502.5728417,7578416,888

Smooting Bown ( Banyuwangi)Smooting Bown ( Sampang )Smooting Bown (Bangkalan)

PeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Brown by SPSSTotal ProduksiPeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Brown by SPSSTotal ProduksiPeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)Jumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)Metode Brown by SPSSTotal Produksi

Periode ForcastData ForcastPeriode ForcastData ForcastPeriode ForcastData Forcast

Jan-12162,5431,665Jan-146,06891,751Jan-12219,1042,231Jan-147,294115,361Jan-12176,9971,810Jan-146,15387,555

Feb-12169,0441,730Feb-146,355Feb-12225,6772,297Feb-147,715Feb-12185,8461,898Feb-146,361

Mar-12180,8771,849Mar-146,642Mar-12236,9602,410Mar-148,137Mar-12195,1381,991Mar-146,569

Apr-12188,1121,921Apr-146,929Apr-12246,4382,504Apr-148,559Apr-12206,8462,108Apr-146,776

May-12203,1602,072May-147,216May-12256,2952,603May-148,981May-12217,1882,212May-146,984

Jun-12215,3492,193Jun-147,502Jun-12263,9832,680Jun-149,403Jun-12228,0472,320Jun-147,192

Jul-12230,4232,344Jul-147,789Jul-12271,9022,759Jul-149,824Jul-12237,1682,412Jul-147,400

Aug-12248,8562,529Aug-148,076Aug-12290,9352,949Aug-1410,246Aug-12249,0262,530Aug-147,608

Sep-12256,3212,603Sep-148,363Sep-12299,6633,037Sep-1410,668Sep-12268,9482,729Sep-147,816

Oct-12274,2632,783Oct-148,650Oct-12314,6463,186Oct-1411,090Oct-12290,4632,945Oct-148,024

Nov-12287,9762,920Nov-148,937Nov-12330,3783,344Nov-1411,511Nov-12310,7953,148Nov-148,232

Dec-12296,6153,006Dec-149,224Dec-12353,5043,575Dec-1411,933Dec-12320,1183,241Dec-148,440













Jan-1612,953174,375Jan-1617,417236,836Jan-1611,142147,430

Feb-1613,240Feb-1617,838Feb-1611,350

Mar-1613,527Mar-1618,260Mar-1611,558

Apr-1613,814Apr-1618,682Apr-1611,766

May-1614,101May-1619,104May-1611,974

Jun-1614,388Jun-1619,525Jun-1612,182

Jul-1614,675Jul-1619,947Jul-1612,390

Aug-1614,962Aug-1620,369Aug-1612,598

Sep-1615,249Sep-1620,791Sep-1612,806

Oct-1615,535Oct-1621,213Oct-1613,014

Nov-1615,822Nov-1621,634Nov-1613,221

Dec-1616,109Dec-1622,056Dec-1613,429

Jan-1716,396215,688Jan-1722,478297,575Jan-1713,637177,369

Feb-1716,683Feb-1722,900Feb-1713,845

Mar-1716,970Mar-1723,322Mar-1714,053

Apr-1717,257Apr-1723,743Apr-1714,261

May-1717,544May-1724,165May-1714,469

Jun-1717,831Jun-1724,587Jun-1714,677

Jul-1718,117Jul-1725,009Jul-1714,885

Aug-1718,404Aug-1725,431Aug-1715,093

Sep-1718,691Sep-1725,852Sep-1715,301

Oct-1718,978Oct-1726,274Oct-1715,508

Nov-1719,265Nov-1726,696Nov-1715,716

Dec-1719,552Dec-1727,118Dec-1715,924

Jan-1819,839257,001Jan-1827,539358,311Jan-1816,132207,307

Feb-1820,126Feb-1827,961Feb-1816,340

Mar-1820,413Mar-1828,383Mar-1816,548

Apr-1820,699Apr-1828,805Apr-1816,756

May-1820,986May-1829,227May-1816,964

Jun-1821,273Jun-1829,648Jun-1817,172

Jul-1821,560Jul-1830,070Jul-1817,380

Aug-1821,847Aug-1830,492Aug-1817,587

Sep-1822,134Sep-1830,914Sep-1817,795

Oct-1822,421Oct-1831,336Oct-1818,003

Nov-1822,708Nov-1831,757Nov-1818,211

Dec-1822,995Dec-1832,179Dec-1818,419

MAPE1.471MAPE1.598MAPE1.390

Smooting Holt ( Banyuwangi )Smooting Holt (Sampang)Smooting Holt ( Bangkalan)

PeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Holt by SPSSTotal ProduksiPeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Holt by SPSSTotal ProduksiPeriodeJumlah Produksi (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Produksi Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Holt by SPSSTotal Produksi


























Jan-1613,148177,226Jan-1617,422236,941Jan-1611,421151,506

Feb-1613,443Feb-1617,845Feb-1611,640

Mar-1613,737Mar-1618,267Mar-1611,859

Apr-1614,032Apr-1618,689Apr-1612,078

May-1614,327May-1619,112May-1612,297

Jun-1614,621Jun-1619,534Jun-1612,516

Jul-1614,916Jul-1619,956Jul-1612,735

Aug-1615,211Aug-1620,379Aug-1612,954

Sep-1615,506Sep-1620,801Sep-1613,173

Oct-1615,800Oct-1621,223Oct-1613,392

Nov-1616,095Nov-1621,645Nov-1613,611

Dec-1616,390Dec-1622,068Dec-1613,830

Jan-1716,684219,662Jan-1722,490297,752Jan-1714,049183,042

Feb-1716,979Feb-1722,912Feb-1714,268

Mar-1717,274Mar-1723,335Mar-1714,487

Apr-1717,568Apr-1723,757Apr-1714,706

May-1717,863May-1724,179May-1714,925

Jun-1718,158Jun-1724,602Jun-1715,144

Jul-1718,453Jul-1725,024Jul-1715,363

Aug-1718,747Aug-1725,446Aug-1715,582

Sep-1719,042Sep-1725,868Sep-1715,801

Oct-1719,337Oct-1726,291Oct-1716,020

Nov-1719,631Nov-1726,713Nov-1716,239

Dec-1719,926Dec-1727,135Dec-1716,458

Jan-1820,221262,102Jan-1827,558358,565Jan-1816,677214,578

Feb-1820,516Feb-1827,980Feb-1816,896

Mar-1820,810Mar-1828,402Mar-1817,115

Apr-1821,105Apr-1828,825Apr-1817,334

May-1821,400May-1829,247May-1817,553

Jun-1821,694Jun-1829,669Jun-1817,772

Jul-1821,989Jul-1830,092Jul-1817,991

Aug-1822,284Aug-1830,514Aug-1818,210

Sep-1822,579Sep-1830,936Sep-1818,429

Oct-1822,873Oct-1831,358Oct-1818,648

Nov-1823,168Nov-1831,781Nov-1818,867

Dec-1823,463Dec-1832,203Dec-1819,086


3.1 Peramalan Data Produksi Boyolali dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan = 0.23.1 Peramalan Data Produksi Surakarta dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan = 0.23.1 Peramalan Data Produksi Banjarnegara dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan = 0.2

PeriodeKapasitas ProduksiSESDESNilai aNilai bNilai RamalanErrorSquarePeriodeKapasitas ProduksiSESDESNilai aNilai bNilai RamalanErrorSquarePeriodeKapasitas ProduksiSESDESNilai aNilai bNilai RamalanErrorSquare

(S't)(S''t)Error(S't)(S''t)Error(S't)(S''t)Error

11,6651,6651,665-----12,2312,2312,231-----11,8101,8101,810-----

21,7301,6781,6681,68931,691391,52122,2972,2442,2342,25532,257391,55521,8981,8281,8141,84241,845532,819

31,8491,7121,6771,74891,757928,42732,4102,2772,2422,31292,321897,87331,9911,8601,8231,89891,907847,068

41,9211,7541,6921,816151,832908,02842,5042,3232,2582,387162,40310110,27942,1081,9101,8401,980171,99711112,390

52,0721,8181,7171,918251,94312916,53452,6032,3792,2832,475242,49910410,79852,2121,9701,8662,074262,10011112,412

62,1931,8931,7532,033352,06812515,68162,6802,4392,3142,564312,595847,12662,3202,0401,9012,180352,21410611,233

72,3441,9831,7992,168462,21413017,02972,7592,5032,3522,654382,692674,47272,4122,1151,9442,285432,328846,973

82,5292,0921,8572,327592,38614320,38582,9492,5922,4002,785482,83311613,56982,5302,1981,9952,401512,452796,169

92,6032,1941,9252,464672,531725,14793,0372,6812,4562,906562,962745,49692,7292,3042,0572,552622,61411613,427

102,7832,3122,0022,622772,699836,937103,1862,7822,5213,043653,108786,101102,9452,4322,1322,733752,80813718,691

112,9202,4342,0892,779862,865553,002113,3442,8952,5963,193753,268765,780113,1482,5752,2202,930893,01912916,611

123,0062,5482,1802,916923,008-22123,5753,0312,6833,378873,46511012,039123,2412,7092,3183,099983,197451,983

133,0952,6582,2763,039953,135-391,558133,8223,1892,7843,5941013,69512716,221133,4972,8662,4283,3051103,415836,847

143,1872,7632,3733,153983,251-644,110144,0123,3542,8983,8091143,923897,861143,6703,0272,5483,5071203,626441,911

153,4072,8922,4773,3071043,411-415154,1313,5093,0203,9981224,12011117153,8523,1922,6763,7071293,83615233

163,6093,0352,5893,4821123,59415230164,3763,6823,1534,2121324,34532995164,1183,3772,8173,9381404,078401,629

173,7883,1862,7083,6641193,783420174,7233,8913,3004,4811484,628958,951174,3223,5662,9674,1661504,316641

184,0123,3512,8373,8661293,99418331184,8644,0853,4574,7131574,870-743184,4943,7523,1244,3801574,537-431,877

194,2113,5232,9744,0721374,21012195,1534,2993,6254,9721685,14013162194,7163,9453,2884,6021644,766-492,443

204,4613,7113,1214,3001474,44714190205,4094,5213,8055,2371795,416-753205,0904,1743,4654,8831775,06031936

214,8153,9323,2834,5801624,742735,349215,5704,7303,9905,4711855,656-877,530215,3934,4183,6565,1801915,37023527

225,1974,1853,4644,9061805,08611112,329226,0124,9874,1895,7841995,98428793225,5544,6453,8535,4371985,634-806,466

235,5064,4493,6615,2371975,434725,188236,4305,2754,4066,1452176,362684,666235,7194,8604,0555,6652015,866-14721,576

245,7804,7153,8725,5592115,76910103246,8775,5964,6446,5472386,785928,483245,9475,0774,2595,8952056,100-15323,446

Total78,68366,48557,66073,6442,20675,8501,168132,118Total94,95381,49471,84188,9162,41391,3291,393140,964Total85,72072,65162,85380,6382,44983,087823177,707

MSE5,505MSE5,873MSE7,404

SSE77SSE80SSE90

FORCAST DATA PRODUKSI KEBUMENFORCAST DATA PRODUKSI KUDUSFORCAST DATA PRODUKSI PURWOKERTO


xy'xy'xy'

15,76983,151.535201416,78597,123.912201416,10086,694.3172014

25,98027,02326,304

36,19137,26136,509

46,40247,49946,713

56,61357,73756,918

66,82467,97567,122

77,03578,21377,327

87,24688,45087,531

97,45698,68897,736

107,667108,926107,940

117,878119,164118,145

128,089129,402128,349

138,300113,517.3592015139,640131,379.7082015138,554116,142.7062015

148,511149,878148,758

158,7221510,116158,963

168,9331610,354169,167

179,1431710,591179,372

189,3541810,829189,576

199,5651911,067199,781

209,7762011,305209,985

219,9872111,5432110,190

2210,1982211,7812210,394

2310,4092312,0192310,599

2410,6202412,2572410,803

2510,830143,883.18320162512,495165,635.50420162511,008145,591.0942016

2611,0412612,7322611,212

2711,2522712,9702711,417

2811,4632813,2082811,621

2911,6742913,4462911,826

3011,8853013,6843012,030

3112,0963113,9223112,235

3212,3073214,1603212,439

3312,5173314,3983312,644

3412,7283414,6363412,848

3512,9393514,8733513,053

3613,1503615,1113613,257

3713,361174,249.00820173715,349199,891.30020173713,462175,039.4832017

3813,5723815,5873813,666

3913,7833915,8253913,871

4013,9944016,0634014,075

4114,2044116,3014114,280

4214,4154216,5394214,484

4314,6264316,7774314,689

4414,8374417,0144414,893

4515,0484517,2524515,098

4615,2594617,4904615,302

4715,4704717,7284715,507

4815,6814817,9664815,711

4915,891204,614.83220184918,204234,147.09620184915,916204,487.8712018

5016,1025018,4425016,120

5116,3135118,6805116,325

5216,5245218,9185216,529

5316,7355319,1555316,734

5416,9465419,3935416,938

5517,1575519,6315517,143

5617,3685619,8695617,347

5717,5785720,1075717,552

5817,7895820,3455817,756

5918,0005920,5835917,961

6018,2116020,8216018,165

Ft+m= St + bt.mFt+m= St + bt.mFt+m= St + bt.m

St = .X t + (1 )(St 1 + b t 1 )0.20.8St = .X t + (1 )(St 1 + b t 1 )0.20.8St = .X t + (1 )(St 1 + b t 1 )0.20.8

bt = (St St 1 ) + (1 )b t 1bt = (St St 1 ) + (1 )b t 1bt = (St St 1 ) + (1 )b t 1

3.4 Peramalan Data Produksi Boyolali dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan = 0.2 dan = 0.8 3.4 Peramalan Data Produksi Surakarta dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan = 0.2 dan = 0.8 3.4 Peramalan Data Produksi Banjarnegara dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan = 0.2 dan = 0.8

PeriodeProduksiDataTrendRamalanerorSquarePeriodeProduksiDataTrendRamalanerorSquarePeriodeProduksiDataTrendRamalanerorSquare

Pemulusan (st)Pemulusan (bt)bila m=1ErrorPemulusan (st)Pemulusan (bt)bila m=1ErrorPemulusan (st)Pemulusan (bt)bila m=1Error

11,665.431,665.4365.0112,231.042,231.0465.7311,809.971,809.9788.49

21,730.441730.4465.0122,296.772296.7765.7321,898.461898.4688.49

31,848.771806.1173.541795.45-53.322,843.0232,409.602371.9273.272362.50-47.102,218.4131,991.381987.8489.201986.95-4.4319.62

41,921.121887.9580.181,879.66-41.461,719.3342,504.382457.0282.742,445.19-59.193,503.9342,108.462083.3294.232,077.03-31.43987.54

52,071.601988.8296.731,968.12-103.4810,707.3452,602.952552.4092.852,539.76-63.193,992.7452,211.882184.4199.722,177.55-34.331,178.78

62,193.492107.14114.002,085.55-107.9411,650.8862,679.832652.1698.382,645.25-34.581,196.0162,320.472291.40105.532,284.13-36.341,320.34

72,344.232245.76133.702,221.14-123.0915,150.9972,759.022752.2499.742,750.54-8.4871.8572,411.682399.88107.892,396.93-14.75217.42

82,528.562409.28157.552,379.45-149.1122,232.3482,949.352871.45115.322,851.98-97.379,481.7582,530.262512.27111.492,507.78-22.48505.48

92,603.212574.11163.372,566.83-36.381,323.5793,036.632996.74123.292,986.77-49.862,486.3192,729.482644.91128.412,623.76-105.7211,175.84

102,782.632746.51170.602,737.48-45.152,038.58103,186.463133.32133.923,120.03-66.434,412.37102,944.632807.58155.822,773.31-171.3229,349.73

112,919.762917.64171.022,917.11-2.657.03113,343.783282.55146.173,267.24-76.545,858.03113,147.953000.30185.352,963.39-184.5634,061.75

123,006.153072.16157.823,088.6682.516,808.02123,575.043457.98169.583,428.72-146.3221,409.97123,241.183196.75194.233,185.65-55.533,083.74

133,095.133203.01136.243,229.98134.8518,184.38133,822.493666.55200.773,627.56-194.9337,996.52133,497.273412.24211.243,390.99-106.2811,296.49

143,186.783308.76111.853,339.25152.4723,248.48144,011.613896.18223.863,867.32-144.2920,820.48143,670.133632.81218.703,623.48-46.652,176.42

153,407.053417.90109.683,420.6113.56183.84154,130.754122.17225.574,120.03-10.72114.90153,851.633851.53218.723,851.51-0.120.01

163,609.073543.88122.723,527.58-81.496,641.18164,376.194353.43230.124,347.75-28.44809.10164,118.444079.89226.434,070.25-48.192,322.05

173,787.523690.78142.073,666.59-120.9314,623.14174,723.084611.46252.454,583.56-139.5219,467.00174,322.364309.53229.004,306.32-16.04257.30

184,012.373868.75170.793,832.85-179.5232,228.92184,863.574863.84252.394,863.910.340.11184,493.654529.55221.824,538.5244.872,013.65

194,210.984073.83198.224,039.54-171.4429,391.22195,152.985123.58258.275,116.23-36.751,350.52194,716.334744.36216.214,751.3735.041,227.47

204,461.234309.89228.494,272.05-189.1835,789.11205,408.625387.21262.555,381.85-26.77716.52205,090.434986.54236.994,960.57-129.8616,863.91

214,814.924593.68272.744,538.38-276.5476,476.83215,569.675633.74249.745,649.7680.096,414.43215,393.455257.51264.185,223.53-169.9228,872.96

225,196.914932.52325.614,866.42-330.49109,222.84226,012.045909.19270.315,883.48-128.5616,527.12225,554.055528.16269.355,521.69-32.361,047.21

235,506.325307.77365.325,258.13-248.1961,596.32236,430.086229.62310.406,179.50-250.5862,788.82235,719.475781.91256.875,797.5178.046,091.01

245,779.635694.40382.375,673.10-106.5311,349.52246,877.386607.49364.386,540.02-337.36113,811.74245,946.646020.35242.136,038.7792.138,488.34

Total78,683.3077,096.504,014.6473,303.93-1,983.50493,416.89Total94,953.3193,460.064,367.5288,558.94-1,866.56335,448.62Total85,719.6584,951.474,260.4681,051.00-960.22162,557.06

MSE20,559.04MSE13,977.03MSE6,773.21

SSE150SSE123SSE86

FORCAST DATA PRODUKSI KEBUMENFORCAST DATA PRODUKSI KUDUSFORCAST DATA PRODUKSI PURWOKERTO


xy'xy'xy'

16,07798,157.708201416,972107,711.483201416,26291,129.9062014

26,45927,33626,505

36,84237,70136,747

47,22448,06546,989

57,60658,42957,231

67,98968,79467,473

78,37179,15877,715

88,75389,52387,957

99,13699,88798,199

109,5181010,251108,442

119,9001110,616118,684

1210,2831210,980128,926

1310,665153,219.01620151311,344160,182.0892015139,168125,995.9192015

1411,0481411,709149,410

1511,4301512,073159,652

1611,8121612,438169,894

1712,1951712,8021710,136

1812,5771813,1661810,379

1912,9591913,5311910,621

2013,3422013,8952010,863

2113,7242114,2592111,105

2214,1072214,6242211,347

2314,4892314,9882311,589

2414,8712415,3532411,831

2515,254208,280.32420162515,717212,652.69520162512,073160,861.9322016

2615,6362616,0812612,316

2716,0182716,4462712,558

2816,4012816,8102812,800

2916,7832917,1742913,042

3017,1663017,5393013,284

3117,5483117,9033113,526

3217,9303218,2683213,768

3318,3133318,6323314,010

3418,6953418,9963414,253

3519,0773519,3613514,495

3619,4603619,7253614,737

3719,842263,341.63220173720,090265,123.30120173714,979195,727.9442017

3820,2243820,4543815,221

3920,6073920,8183915,463

4020,9894021,1834015,705

4121,3724121,5474115,947

4221,7544221,9114216,190

4322,1364322,2764316,432

4422,5194422,6404416,674

4522,9014523,0054516,916

4623,2834623,3694617,158

4723,6664723,7334717,400

4824,0484824,0984817,642

4924,431318,402.94020184924,462317,593.90720184917,884230,593.9572018

5024,8135024,8265018,127

5125,1955125,1915118,369

5225,5785225,5555218,611

5325,9605325,9205318,853

5426,3425426,2845419,095

5526,7255526,6485519,337

5627,1075627,0135619,579

5727,4905727,3775719,821

5827,8725827,7415820,064

5928,2545928,1065920,306

6028,6376028,4706020,548

data permintaan tujuan

DATA PERMINTAAN LOKASITUJUAN

Tujuan 1 ( Kediri)Tujuan 2 (Bondowoso)Tujuan 3 (Bojonegoro)

PeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100PeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100PeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/1004000

Jan-12112,3221,1631Jan-12114,4591,185Jan-12210,2382,142NoKabupatenData Permintaan Lemari Tahun 2013 ( unit )

Feb-12125,8001,2982Feb-12128,1941,322Feb-12229,1592,332JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Mar-12139,6381,4363Mar-12138,4491,424Mar-12247,4912,5151Kediri385,513420,209458,027503,829554,211620,716701,409792,592879,777958,9561,045,2621,139,335

Apr-12157,7901,6184Apr-12153,6781,577Apr-12279,6642,8372Bondowoso385,395420,080457,887494,517548,913592,826652,108730,360803,396867,667945,7571,040,332

May-12170,4131,7445May-12173,6561,777May-12310,4273,1443Bojonegoro702,149772,363857,322943,0541,065,6511,161,5591,277,7141,418,2621,602,6361,746,8731,921,5602,132,931

Jun-12189,1581,9326Jun-12187,5481,915Jun-12347,6783,517

Jul-12209,9652,1407Jul-12202,5512,066Jul-12385,9223,899NoKabupatenData Permintaan Lemari Tahun 2012 ( unit )

Aug-12235,1602,3928Aug-12222,8062,268Aug-12432,2324,362JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

Sep-12261,0272,6509Sep-12251,7702,558Sep-12466,8104,7081Kediri112,322125,800139,638157,790170,413189,158209,965235,160261,027289,739324,507356,957

Oct-12289,7392,93710Oct-12284,5002,885Oct-12522,8275,2682Bondowoso114,459128,194138,449153,678173,656187,548202,551222,806251,770284,500307,260347,203

Nov-12324,5073,28511Nov-12307,2603,113Nov-12580,3375,8433Bojonegoro210,238229,159247,491279,664310,427347,678385,922432,232466,810522,827580,337644,174

Dec-12356,9573,61012Dec-12347,2033,512Dec-12644,1746,482

Jan-13385,5133,89513Jan-13385,3953,894Jan-13702,1497,061

Feb-13420,2094,24214Feb-13420,0804,241Feb-13772,3637,764

Mar-13458,0274,62015Mar-13457,8874,619Mar-13857,3228,613

Apr-13503,8295,07816Apr-13494,5174,985Apr-13943,0549,471

May-13554,2115,58217May-13548,9135,529May-131,065,65110,697

Jun-13620,7166,24718Jun-13592,8265,968Jun-131,161,55911,656

Jul-13701,4097,05419Jul-13652,1086,561Jul-131,277,71412,817

Aug-13792,5927,96620Aug-13730,3607,344Aug-131,418,26214,223

Sep-13879,7778,83821Sep-13803,3968,074Sep-131,602,63616,066

Oct-13958,9569,63022Oct-13867,6678,717Oct-131,746,87317,509

Nov-131,045,26210,49323Nov-13945,7579,498Nov-131,921,56019,256

Dec-131,139,33511,43324Dec-131,040,33210,443Dec-132,132,93121,369

Forcast Permintaan

MASTER

PeriodePermintaan

xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2

15050154.782-4.78222.87

255110454.5340.4660.22

354162954.286-0.2860.08

4522081654.037-2.0374.15

5653252553.78911.211125.69

6482883653.541-5.54130.70

7533714953.293-0.2930.09

8584646453.0444.95624.56

9554958152.7962.2044.86

105252010052.548-0.5480.30

115055012152.300-2.3005.29

124958814452.051-3.0519.31

Total786414131650641.000-0.000000000000014228.10

Standar Error

ba4.7760206198

-0.24855.030

-1

Data Permintaan KEDIRIData Permintaan BONDOWOSOData Permintaan BOJONEGORO

Metode Regresi LinierMetode Regresi LinierMetode Regresi Linier

TahunPeriodePermintaanTahunPeriodePermintaanTahunPeriodePermintaan

xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2|(y-y')/y*100%|xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2|(y-y')/y*100%|xyxyx2y'y-y'(y-y')2|(y-y')/y*100%|

201211,1631163.221-213.6641,376.881,895,808.541.1836829089201211,1851184.591-1.5311,186.121,406,883.901.0012927398201212,1422142.381-484.8442,627.226,902,304.371.2263107852

21,29825964208.1161,089.881,187,848.170.83966446621,3222643.884380.751941.19885,837.150.711975746922,3324663.184294.8182,036.774,148,440.920.8735550344

31,4364309.149629.895806.49650,418.570.561470725231,4244273.479763.033661.46437,525.460.464346587932,5157544.7391074.4791,440.432,074,840.500.5727563472

41,6186471.6161051.674566.23320,612.070.349975995941,5776307.12161145.315431.46186,161.980.2736367342,83711346.56161854.141982.50965,304.580.3463601824

51,7448720.65251473.453270.6873,266.040.155193137751,7778882.8251527.597248.9661,982.460.140137555453,14415721.35252633.802510.47260,577.200.1623485357

61,93211589.48361895.23236.351,321.17-0.018817678161,91511492.88361909.8795.6031.37-0.002923876863,51721100.68363413.464103.3210,674.22-0.0293780427

72,14014977.55492317.011-177.3631,457.030.082892672172,06614458.57492292.162-226.6551,370.910.109731504773,89927294.54494193.125-293.9186,380.390.0753754352

82,39219132.8642738.790-347.19120,541.220.145170790482,26818144.48642674.444-406.38165,147.690.179176771484,36234898.56644972.787-610.47372,669.860.1399408851

92,65023852.43813160.570-510.30260,405.700.19254627692,55823019.3813056.726-499.03249,026.760.19510725194,70842372.9815752.448-1,044.351,090,663.660.2218195109

102,93729373.91003582.349-644.96415,971.820.2195686563102,885288501003439.008-554.01306,924.820.19203049105,26852682.71006532.110-1,263.841,597,291.440.2398965802

113,28536135.771214004.128-719.06517,044.310.2188866392113,11334238.61213821.290-708.69502,241.670.227684287115,84364277.071217311.771-1,468.402,156,202.890.2512935984

123,61043314.841444425.907-816.34666,406.240.2261590961123,51242144.361444203.572-691.54478,230.700.1969067062126,48277780.881448091.433-1,609.692,591,111.530.2483427276

2013133,89550636.691694847.686-952.56907,363.400.24455056572013133,89450621.351694585.854-691.90478,731.710.17768702922013137,06191799.371698871.095-1,809.603,274,668.480.2562638351

144,24259389.261965269.465-1,027.381,055,500.220.2421861397144,24159371.21964968.137-727.34529,018.460.1715092801147,764108690.821969650.756-1,887.133,561,244.640.2430726382

154,62069304.052255691.245-1,070.971,146,986.500.2317991282154,61969283.052255350.419-731.55535,163.500.1583826137158,613129198.322510430.418-1,817.203,302,206.910.210977723

165,07881252.642566113.024-1,034.731,070,673.860.2037563263164,98579762.722565732.701-747.53558,802.370.1499509246169,471151528.6425611210.079-1,739.543,025,996.140.183678973

175,58294895.872896534.803-952.69907,623.710.1706689533175,52993995.212896114.983-585.85343,223.740.10595753741710,697181840.6728911989.741-1,293.231,672,445.330.1209021053

186,247112448.883246956.582-709.42503,279.610.1135591257185,968107428.683246497.265-529.01279,846.440.0886364111811,656209800.6232412769.402-1,113.811,240,577.380.0955603359

197,054134027.713617378.361-324.27105,151.800.045969244196,561124660.523616879.547-318.47101,421.420.04853885251912,817243525.6636113549.064-731.92535,712.180.057105065

207,966159318.44007800.140165.7827,482.900.0208111128207,3441468724007261.82981.776,686.420.01113494172014,223284452.440014328.725-106.1111,258.30-0.0074603083

218,838185593.174418221.919615.85379,271.840.0696839251218,074169553.164417644.112429.85184,769.660.0532388582116,066337393.5644115108.387957.97917,712.940.0596260355

229,630211850.324848643.699985.86971,922.590.1023786493228,717191766.744848026.394690.28476,481.320.07919036312217,509385192.0648415888.0481,620.682,626,609.610.0925642142

2310,493241330.265299065.4781,427.142,036,734.830.1360139021239,498218444.115298408.6761,088.891,185,690.390.11464975932319,256442878.852916667.7102,587.896,697,176.290.1343967634

2411,433274400.45769487.2571,946.093,787,278.090.17021197052410,443250639.685768790.9581,652.362,730,300.070.15822190332421,369512863.4457617447.3713,921.9415,381,603.950.1835313728

Total300111,2831,876,0854,900111,283019,040,3705.91Total300105473.121758038.474900105,473-012,141,5005.01Total300203550.333440989.874900203550.33-064503673.71191475.96

DIKETAHUIRUMUSSSEMSEMAPEDIKETAHUIRUMUSSSEMSEMAPEDIKETAHUIRUMUSSSEMSEMAPE

bay'=a+bx930.307793,3490.246bay'=a+bx742.891505,8960.209bay'=a+bx1,712.3042,687,6530.248

421.779-635.443382.282-383.814779.662-1264.505

FORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN KEDIRIFORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN BONDOWOSOFORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN BOJONEGORO

PeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahun5272.2394565217PeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahunPeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahun

xy'12.500-5,272.239xy'xy'

259,909146,745.8582014-610.443259,173135,309.50420142518,227270,182.0532014

2610,331269,5562619,007

2710,75311,641,104.720279,9382719,786

2811,17427,600.0002810,3202820,566

2911,596421.7792910,7022921,346

3012,0183011,0853022,125

3112,4403111,4673122,905

3212,8613211,8493223,685

3313,2833312,2313324,464

3413,7053412,6143425,244

3514,1273512,9963526,024

3614,5493613,3783626,803

3714,970207,482.05620153713,761190,358.13320153727,583382,453.3112015

3815,3923814,1433828,363

3915,8143914,5253929,142

4016,2364014,9074029,922

4116,6584115,2904130,702

4217,0794215,6724231,481

4317,5014316,0544332,261

4417,9234416,4374433,041

4518,3454516,8194533,820

4618,7664617,2014634,600

4719,1884717,5834735,380

4819,6104817,9664836,159

4920,032268,218.25520164918,348245,406.76320164936,939494,724.5702016

5020,4545018,7305037,719

5120,8755119,1135138,498

5221,2975219,4955239,278

5321,7195319,8775340,058

5422,1415420,2595440,837

5522,5625520,6425541,617

5622,9845621,0245642,397

5723,4065721,4065743,176

5823,8285821,7895843,956

5924,2505922,1715944,736

6024,6716022,5536045,515

6125,093328,954.45320176122,935300,455.39220176146,295606,995.8282017

6225,5156223,3186247,075

6325,9376323,7006347,854

6426,3586424,0826448,634

6526,7806524,4656549,413

6627,2026624,8476650,193

6727,6246725,2296750,973

6828,0466825,6116851,752

6928,4676925,9946952,532

7028,8897026,3767053,312

7129,3117126,7587154,091

7229,7337227,1417254,871

7330,154389,690.65220187327,523355,504.02120187355,651719,267.0872018

7430,5767427,9057456,430

7530,9987528,2877557,210

7631,4207628,6707657,990

7731,8427729,0527758,769

7832,2637829,4347859,549

7932,6857929,8167960,329

8033,1078030,1998061,108

8133,5298130,5818161,888

8233,9508230,9638262,668

8334,3728331,3468363,447

8434,7948431,7288464,227

Smooting Brown ( Kediri)Smooting Bown ( Bondowoso )Smooting Bown ( Bojonegoro )

PeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Brown by SPSSTotal PermintaanPeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Brown by SPSSTotal PermintaanPeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Brown by SPSSTotal Permintaan


Jan-12112,3221,163Jan-1412,373210,516.000Jan-12114,4591,185Jan-1411,365197,276.000Jan-12210,2382,142Jan-1423,404415,425.000
















May-13554,2115,582May-1527,413May-13548,9135,529May-1526,128May-131,065,65110,697May-1556,029

Jun-13620,7166,247Jun-1528,353Jun-13592,8265,968Jun-1527,050Jun-131,161,55911,656Jun-1558,068

Jul-13701,4097,054Jul-1529,293Jul-13652,1086,561Jul-1527,973Jul-131,277,71412,817Jul-1560,107

Aug-13792,5927,966Aug-1530,233Aug-13730,3607,344Aug-1528,896Aug-131,418,26214,223Aug-1562,146

Sep-13879,7778,838Sep-1531,173Sep-13803,3968,074Sep-1529,818Sep-131,602,63616,066Sep-1564,185

Oct-13958,9569,630Oct-1532,113Oct-13867,6678,717Oct-1530,741Oct-131,746,87317,509Oct-1566,224

Nov-131,045,26210,493Nov-1533,053Nov-13945,7579,498Nov-1531,664Nov-131,921,56019,256Nov-1568,263

Dec-131,139,33511,433Dec-1533,993Dec-131,040,33210,443Dec-1532,586Dec-132,132,93121,369Dec-1570,302

Jan-1634,933481,236.000Jan-1633,509463,008.000Jan-1672,3411,002,667.000

Feb-1635,873Feb-1634,432Feb-1674,380

Mar-1636,813Mar-1635,355Mar-1676,419

Apr-1637,753Apr-1636,277Apr-1678,458

May-1638,693May-1637,200May-1680,497

Jun-1639,633Jun-1638,123Jun-1682,536

Jul-1640,573Jul-1639,045Jul-1684,575

Aug-1641,513Aug-1639,968Aug-1686,614

Sep-1642,453Sep-1640,891Sep-1688,653

Oct-1643,393Oct-1641,813Oct-1690,692

Nov-1644,333Nov-1642,736Nov-1692,731

Dec-1645,273Dec-1643,659Dec-1694,771

Jan-1746,213616,596.000Jan-1744,581595,872.000Jan-1796,8101,296,294.000

Feb-1747,153Feb-1745,504Feb-1798,849

Mar-1748,093Mar-1746,427Mar-17100,888

Apr-1749,033Apr-1747,349Apr-17102,927

May-1749,973May-1748,272May-17104,966

Jun-1750,913Jun-1749,195Jun-17107,005

Jul-1751,853Jul-1750,117Jul-17109,044

Aug-1752,793Aug-1751,040Aug-17111,083

Sep-1753,733Sep-1751,963Sep-17113,122

Oct-1754,673Oct-1752,885Oct-17115,161

Nov-1755,613Nov-1753,808Nov-17117,200

Dec-1756,553Dec-1754,731Dec-17119,239

Jan-1857,493751,956.000Jan-1855,653728,738.000Jan-18121,2781,589,910.000

Feb-1858,433Feb-1856,576Feb-18123,317

Mar-1859,373Mar-1857,499Mar-18125,356

Apr-1860,313Apr-1858,421Apr-18127,395

May-1861,253May-1859,344May-18129,434

Jun-1862,193Jun-1860,267Jun-18131,473

Jul-1863,133Jul-1861,190Jul-18133,512

Aug-1864,073Aug-1862,112Aug-18135,551

Sep-1865,013Sep-1863,035Sep-18137,590

Oct-1865,953Oct-1863,958Oct-18139,629

Nov-1866,893Nov-1864,880Nov-18141,668

Dec-1867,833Dec-1865,803Dec-18143,707


Smooting Holt ( kediri )Smooting Holt ( Bondowoso)Smooting Holt ( Bojonegoro )

PeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Holt by SPSSTotal PermintaanPeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Holt by SPSSTotal PermintaanPeriodeJumlah Permintaan (dari Bank Data)(Jumlah Permintaan Akhir / Data bank + (NRP*100))/100Metode Holt by SPSSTotal Permintaan


















May-13554,2115,582May-1527,413May-13548,9135,529May-1525,871May-131,065,65110,697May-1555,194

Jun-13620,7166,247Jun-1528,353Jun-13592,8265,968Jun-1526,778Jun-131,161,55911,656Jun-1557,191

Jul-13701,4097,054Jul-1529,293Jul-13652,1086,561Jul-1527,686Jul-131,277,71412,817Jul-1559,189

Aug-13792,5927,966Aug-1530,233Aug-13730,3607,344Aug-1528,593Aug-131,418,26214,223Aug-1561,186

Sep-13879,7778,838Sep-1531,173Sep-13803,3968,074Sep-1529,501Sep-131,602,63616,066Sep-1563,183

Oct-13958,9569,630Oct-1532,113Oct-13867,6678,717Oct-1530,408Oct-131,746,87317,509Oct-1565,181

Nov-131,045,26210,493Nov-1533,053Nov-13945,7579,498Nov-1531,316Nov-131,921,56019,256Nov-1567,178

Dec-131,139,33511,433Dec-1533,993Dec-131,040,33210,443Dec-1532,223Dec-132,132,93121,369Dec-1569,175

Jan-1634,933481,236.000Jan-1633,131457,465.000Jan-1671,173985,896.000

Feb-1635,873Feb-1634,038Feb-1673,170

Mar-1636,813Mar-1634,946Mar-1675,167

Apr-1637,753Apr-1635,853Apr-1677,165

May-1638,693May-1636,761May-1679,162

Jun-1639,633Jun-1637,668Jun-1681,159

Jul-1640,573Jul-1638,576Jul-1683,157

Aug-1641,513Aug-1639,483Aug-1685,154

Sep-1642,453Sep-1640,391Sep-1687,151

Oct-1643,393Oct-1641,298Oct-1689,149

Nov-1644,333Nov-1642,206Nov-1691,146

Dec-1645,273Dec-1643,114Dec-1693,143

Jan-1746,213616,596.000Jan-1744,021588,150.000Jan-1795,1411,273,512.000

Feb-1747,153Feb-1744,929Feb-1797,138

Mar-1748,093Mar-1745,836Mar-1799,135

Apr-1749,033Apr-1746,744Apr-17101,133

May-1749,973May-1747,651May-17103,130

Jun-1750,913Jun-1748,559Jun-17105,127

Jul-1751,853Jul-1749,466Jul-17107,125

Aug-1752,793Aug-1750,374Aug-17109,122

Sep-1753,733Sep-1751,281Sep-17111,119

Oct-1754,673Oct-1752,189Oct-17113,117

Nov-1755,613Nov-1753,096Nov-17115,114

Dec-1756,553Dec-1754,004Dec-17117,111

Jan-1857,493751,956.000Jan-1854,911718,830.000Jan-18119,1091,561,128.000

Feb-1858,433Feb-1855,819Feb-18121,106

Mar-1859,373Mar-1856,726Mar-18123,103

Apr-1860,313Apr-1857,634Apr-18125,101

May-1861,253May-1858,541May-18127,098

Jun-1862,193Jun-1859,449Jun-18129,095

Jul-1863,133Jul-1860,356Jul-18131,093

Aug-1864,073Aug-1861,264Aug-18133,090

Sep-1865,013Sep-1862,171Sep-18135,087

Oct-1865,953Oct-1863,079Oct-18137,085

Nov-1866,893Nov-1863,986Nov-18139,082

Dec-1867,833Dec-1864,894Dec-18141,079


3.1 Peramalan Data PermintaanKebumen dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan = 0.23.1 Peramalan Data Permintaan Kudus dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan = 0.23.1 Peramalan Data Permintaan Purwokerto dengan Menggunakan Metode Brown, dengan = 0.2

PeriodeData PermintaanSESDESNilai aNilai bNilai RamalanErrorSquarePeriodeData PermintaanSESDESNilai aNilai bNilai RamalanErrorSquarePeriodeData PermintaanSESDESNilai aNilai bNilai RamalanErrorSquare

(S't)(S''t)Error(S't)(S''t)Error(S't)(S''t)Error

11,1631,1631,163-----11,1851,1851,185-----12,1422,1422,142-----

21,2981,1901,1691,21251,217816,54021,3221,2121,1901,23451,240826,79122,3322,1802,1502,21082,21811412,888

31,4361,2391,1831,296141,31012615,91631,4241,2551,2031,306131,31910511,12632,5152,2472,1692,325192,34417129,084

41,6181,3151,2091,421261,44717029,05241,5771,3191,2261,412231,43514220,09942,8372,3652,2092,522392,56127676,131

51,7441,4011,2481,554381,59315222,96351,7771,4111,2631,558371,59518233,02553,1442,5212,2712,771622,83331196,719

61,9321,5071,2991,715521,76716527,24461,9151,5121,3131,710501,76015624,18763,5172,7202,3613,079903,169348120,846

72,1401,6341,3661,901671,96817229,57872,0661,6221,3751,870621,93213417,86073,8992,9562,4803,4321193,551348121,261

82,3921,7851,4502,120842,20418835,17182,2681,7511,4502,053752,12814019,54484,3623,2372,6313,8431513,995368135,260

92,6501,9581,5522,3651022,46618433,83792,5581,9131,5432,283932,37518233,23594,7083,5312,8114,2511804,43127776,543

102,9372,1541,6722,6361202,75618132,767102,8852,1071,6552,5591132,67221345,464105,2683,8793,0254,7332134,946322103,740

113,2852,3801,8142,9471423,08819738,710113,1132,3081,7862,8301312,96115222,974115,8434,2723,2745,2692495,519325105,512

123,6102,6261,9763,2761623,43817129,287123,5122,5491,9393,1591533,31220040,018126,4824,7143,5625,8652886,153329107,941

133,8952,8802,1573,6031813,78411212,443133,8942,8182,1143,5211763,69719738,645137,0615,1833,8866,4803246,80425766,087

144,2423,1522,3563,9491994,148948,906144,2413,1032,3123,8931984,09115022,556147,7645,6994,2497,1503637,51225163,149

154,6203,4462,5744,3182184,536847,133154,6193,4062,5314,2812194,50011914,242158,6136,2824,6567,9094078,31529888,761

165,0783,7722,8144,7312404,97110811,558164,9853,7222,7694,6742384,913735,277169,4716,9205,1088,7314539,18428782,089

175,5824,1343,0785,1912645,45512716,160175,5294,0833,0325,1352635,39713217,3701710,6977,6755,6229,72951310,242455206,699

186,2474,5573,3745,7402966,03621144,595185,9684,4603,3185,6032865,889806,3561811,6568,4716,19210,75157011,321335112,149

197,0545,0563,7106,4033376,73931599,255196,5614,8803,6306,1313136,44311813,8901912,8179,3406,82111,85963012,489328107,562

207,9665,6384,0967,1813867,566400159,670207,3445,3733,9796,7673497,11622851,8272014,22310,3177,52013,11369913,812410168,358

218,8386,2784,5328,0244368,461377142,316218,0745,9134,3667,4613877,84822651,1772116,06611,4678,31014,62478915,413653426,855

229,6306,9485,0168,8814839,36526570,199228,7176,4744,7878,1614228,58213418,0782217,50912,6759,18316,16787317,041468219,187

2310,4937,6575,5449,77152810,29919437,470239,4987,0795,2468,9124589,37012816,2692319,25613,99110,14517,83896218,800456207,886

2411,4338,4126,11810,70757411,28115223,1732410,4437,7525,7479,75650110,25818634,4852421,36915,46711,20919,7251,06420,789580336,527

Total111,28382,28662,469100,9404,954105,8954,225933,942Total105,47379,20560,95796,2694,562100,8313,457564,496Total203,550150,252113,986184,3769,067193,4437,9653,071,232

MSE38,914MSE23,521MSE127,968

SSE206SSE160SSE374

FORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN KEBUMENFORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN KUDUSFORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN PURWOKERTO

PeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahunPeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahunPeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahun

xy'xy'xy'

111,281173,239.4022014110,258156,171.2522014120,789319,725.3972014

211,855210,759221,854

312,429311,260322,918

413,002411,761423,983

513,576512,262525,047

614,150612,764626,112

714,723713,265727,176

815,297813,766828,240

915,871914,267929,305

1016,4451014,7691030,369

1117,0181115,2701131,434

1217,5921215,7711232,498

1318,166255,855.97720151316,272228,345.43520151333,563473,009.0122015

1418,7401416,7731434,627

1519,3131517,2751535,692

1619,8871617,7761636,756

1720,4611718,2771737,821

1821,0341818,7781838,885

1921,6081919,2791939,950

2022,1822019,7812041,014

2122,7562120,2822142,079

2223,3292220,7832243,143

2323,9032321,2842344,208

2424,4772421,7852445,272

2525,051338,472.55320162522,287300,519.61720162546,336626,292.6272016

2625,6242622,7882647,401

2726,1982723,2892748,465

2826,7722823,7902849,530

2927,3452924,2912950,594

3027,9193024,7933051,659

3128,4933125,2943152,723

3229,0673225,7953253,788

3329,6403326,2963354,852

3430,2143426,7983455,917

3530,7883527,2993556,981

3631,3623627,8003658,046

3731,935421,089.12820173728,301372,693.80020173759,110779,576.2422017

3832,5093828,8023860,175

3933,0833929,3043961,239

4033,6564029,8054062,304

4134,2304130,3064163,368

4234,8044230,8074264,432

4335,3784331,3084365,497

4435,9514431,8104466,561

4536,5254532,3114567,626

4637,0994632,8124668,690

4737,6734733,3134769,755

4838,2464833,8144870,819

4938,820503,705.70320184934,316444,867.98320184971,884932,859.8582018

5039,3945034,8175072,948

5139,9675135,3185174,013

5240,5415235,8195275,077

5341,1155336,3215376,142

5441,6895436,8225477,206

5542,2625537,3235578,271

5642,8365637,8245679,335

5743,4105738,3255780,399

5843,9845838,8275881,464

5944,5575939,3285982,528

6045,1316039,8296083,593

Ft+m= St + bt.mFt+m= St + bt.mFt+m= St + bt.m

St = .X t + (1 )(St 1 + b t 1 )0.20.8St = .X t + (1 )(St 1 + b t 1 )0.20.8St = .X t + (1 )(St 1 + b t 1 )0.20.8

bt = (St St 1 ) + (1 )b t 1bt = (St St 1 ) + (1 )b t 1bt = (St St 1 ) + (1 )b t 1

3.4 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan = 0.2 dan = 0.8 3.4 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan = 0.2 dan = 0.8 3.4 Peramalan Data Permintaan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt, dengan = 0.2 dan = 0.8

PeriodePermintaanDataTrendRamalanerorSquarePeriodePermintaanDataTrendRamalanerorSquarePeriodePermintaanDataTrendRamalanerorSquare

Pemulusan (st)Pemulusan (bt)bila m=1ErrorPemulusan (st)Pemulusan (bt)bila m=1ErrorPemulusan (st)Pemulusan (bt)bila m=1Error

11,163.221,163.22134.7811,184.591,184.59137.3512,142.382,142.38189.21

21,298.001298.00134.7821,321.941321.94137.3522,331.592331.59189.21

31,436.381433.50135.361432.78-3.6012.9631,424.491452.33131.781459.2934.801,211.0432,514.912519.62188.272520.805.8934.69

41,617.901578.66143.201,568.86-49.042,405.3141,576.781582.65130.611,584.117.3353.7642,836.642733.64208.872,707.89-128.7516,576.67

51,744.131726.32146.761,721.87-22.26495.6051,776.561725.92140.741,713.25-63.314,007.5953,144.272982.86241.152,942.51-201.7640,708.17

61,931.581884.78156.121,873.09-58.493,421.6361,915.481876.42148.551,866.65-48.832,384.0463,516.783282.56287.993,224.01-292.7785,714.53

72,139.652060.66171.922,040.91-98.749,749.9172,065.512033.08155.042,024.97-40.541,643.6073,899.223636.29340.583,570.56-328.66108,019.62

82,391.602264.38197.372,232.58-159.0225,287.5282,268.062204.10167.832,188.11-79.956,391.4384,362.324053.96402.253,976.87-385.45148,572.94

92,650.272499.45227.532,461.75-188.5235,539.9192,557.702409.08197.552,371.93-185.7734,510.1494,708.104506.59442.554,456.21-251.8963,448.54

102,937.392769.06261.192,726.98-210.4144,271.07102,885.002662.31242.092,606.64-278.3677,486.59105,268.275012.97493.614,949.14-319.13101,842.81

113,285.073081.22301.963,030.26-254.8164,928.69113,112.602946.04275.402,904.40-208.2043,348.05115,843.375573.94547.505,506.58-336.79113,426.36

123,609.573428.46338.193,383.19-226.3851,250.01123,512.033279.56321.903,221.44-290.5984,442.47126,481.746193.50605.156,121.44-360.30129,816.27

133,895.133792.34358.743,766.65-128.4816,507.61133,893.953659.95368.703,601.45-292.5085,553.81137,061.496851.22647.206,798.65-262.8469,085.80

144,242.094169.29373.304,151.09-91.008,281.49144,240.804071.08402.644,028.65-212.1545,008.16147,763.637551.46689.647,498.42-265.2170,336.51

154,620.274558.13385.734,542.59-77.686,034.00154,618.874502.75425.864,473.72-145.1521,068.93158,613.228315.52749.188,241.10-372.12138,474.40

165,078.294970.75407.244,943.86-134.4318,071.73164,985.174939.92434.914,928.61-56.563,198.73169,470.549145.87814.119,064.70-405.84164,706.91

175,582.115418.81439.905,377.99-204.1241,666.61175,529.135405.70459.605,374.84-154.2923,806.281710,696.5110107.28931.969,959.98-736.53542,479.44

186,247.165936.40502.055,858.71-388.45150,892.21185,968.265885.89476.075,865.30-102.9610,601.671811,655.5911162.511030.5711,039.24-616.35379,887.01

197,054.096561.58600.556,438.45-615.64379,008.02196,561.086401.79507.936,361.96-199.1239,647.731912,817.1412317.891130.4212,193.08-624.06389,448.33

207,965.927322.89729.167,162.14-803.78646,069.86207,343.606996.50577.356,909.72-433.88188,252.692014,222.6213603.181254.3113,448.31-774.31599,548.62

218,837.778209.20854.878,052.05-785.72617,352.63218,073.967673.87657.377,573.85-500.11250,110.892116,066.3615099.261447.7314,857.49-1208.871,461,376.94

229,629.569177.17945.359,064.07-565.49319,778.49228,716.678408.33719.048,331.24-385.43148,554.022217,508.7316739.341601.6116,546.99-961.74924,942.99

2310,492.6210196.541004.5710,122.52-370.10136,972.99239,497.579201.41778.279,127.37-370.20137,049.292319,255.6018523.881747.9518,340.95-914.65836,591.00

2411,433.3511247.561041.7311,201.11-232.2453,935.442410,443.3210072.41852.459,979.68-463.64214,961.232421,369.3120491.331923.5520,271.83-1097.481,204,462.50

Total111,283.12106,748.389,992.38103,153.48-5,668.422,631,933.72Total105,473.12101,897.608,846.3998,497.19-4,469.401,423,292.16Total203,550.33194,878.6318,104.57188,236.74-10,839.627,589,501.03

MSE109,663.90MSE59,303.84MSE316,229.21

SSE346SSE254SSE587

FORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN KEBUMENFORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN KUDUSFORCAST DATA PERMINTAAN PURWOKERTO

PeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahunPeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahunPeriodeForecastTotal PermintaanTahun

xy'xy'xy'

112,289216,225.4212014110,925187,360.3552014122,415395,932.7752014

213,331211,777224,338

314,373312,630326,262

415,414413,482428,186

516,456514,335530,109

617,498615,187632,033

718,540716,040733,956

819,581816,892835,880

920,623917,744937,803

1021,6651018,5971039,727

1122,7071119,4491141,650

1223,7481220,3021243,574

1324,790366,234.14520151321,154310,113.80220151345,497672,923.9082015

1425,8321422,0071447,421

1526,8731522,8591549,345

1627,9151623,7121651,268

1728,9571724,5641753,192

1829,9991825,4171855,115

1931,0401926,2691957,039

2032,0822027,1212058,962

2133,1242127,9742160,886

2234,1662228,8262262,809

2335,2072329,6792364,733

2436,2492430,5312466,657

2537,291516,242.86920162531,384432,867.24920162568,580949,915.0402016

2638,3322632,2362670,504

2739,3742733,0892772,427

2840,4162833,9412874,351

2941,4582934,7942976,274

3042,4993035,6463078,198

3143,5413136,4983180,121

3244,5833237,3513282,045

3345,6253338,2033383,968

3446,6663439,0563485,892

3547,7083539,9083587,816

3648,7503640,7613689,739

3749,791666,251.59320173741,613555,620.69620173791,6631,226,906.1732017

3850,8333842,4663893,586

3951,8753943,3183995,510

4052,9174044,1714097,433

4153,9584145,0234199,357

4255,0004245,87542101,280

4356,0424346,72843103,204

4457,0844447,58044105,128

4558,1254548,43345107,051

4659,1674649,28546108,975

4760,2094750,13847110,898

4861,2504850,99048112,822

4962,292816,260.31720184951,843678,374.144201849114,7451,503,897.3052018

5063,3345052,69550116,669

5164,3765153,54851118,592

5265,4175254,40052120,516

5366,4595355,25253122,439

5467,5015456,10554124,363

5568,5435556,95755126,287

5669,5845657,81056128,210

5770,6265758,66257130,134

5871,6685859,51558132,057

5972,7095960,36759133,981

6073,7516061,22060135,904

Resume MAPE Peramalan

RESUMEEROR DARI MASING MASING METODE PERAMALAN

Metode PeramalanMAPE Forcast ProduksiMAPE Forcast Permintaan

BANYUWANGISAMPANGBANGKALANKEDIRIBONDOWOSOBOJONEGORO

Regresi Linier0.0610.0660.0560.2460.2090.248

Smooting Brown1.4711.5981.3901.2471.8911.736

Smooting Holt1.4011.4451.1731.2471.7591.627

RESUME FORCAST DARI MASING MASING METODE PERAMALAN

Metode Peramalan Forcast Produksi Forcast Permintaan

BANYUWANGISAMPANGBANGKALANKEDIRIBONDOWOSOBOJONEGORO

Regresi Linier623,503723,766683,6281,341,0911,227,0342,473,623

Smooting Brown719,416828,178727,9551,692,3631,502,5983,131,463

Smooting Holt1,041,4021,063,263804,3102,581,2142,164,3364,749,575

data produksi + permintan

Data Produksi + Ongkos Produksi + Ongkos Distribusi

Lokasi PesaingJumlah Produksi ( Unit )Ongkos Produksi/Unit (Rp)Ongkos Distribusi/unit/km (Rp)

BANYUWANGI75,9241,000,0002,000

SAMPANG89,1671,000,0002,000

BANGKALAN83,0881,000,0002,000

Data Permintaan

Lokasi TujuanJumlah Permintaan ( Unit )

KEDIRI146,746

BONDOWOSO135,310

BOJONEGORO270,182

bakal lokasi pabrik

3. Bakal Lokasi Pabrik

a. Market Potensial

Market Potensial = total permintaan pasar total produksi pesaing

Tahun Demand (Permintaan) (unit)Supply (Produksi Pesaing) (unit)Market Potensial (unit)Market Potensial (%)

2014552,237248,179304,05944.9%

2015780,294327,179453,11541.9%

20161,008,350406,179602,17040.3%

20171,236,406485,180751,22639.2%

20181,464,462564,180900,28238.5%

b. Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang (KPT)

KPT = market share x market potensial

TahunMarket Potensial (unit)Market Share (%)KPT

2014304,05931%94,258

2015453,11531%140,466

2016602,17031%186,673

2017751,22631%232,880

2018900,28231%279,087

c. Data Bakal Lokasi

Bakal LokasiKapasitas Produksi /Tahun ( unit )Ongkos Produksi /UnitOngkos Distribusi /Unit/km

Probolinggo94,2581,000,0002,000

Pasuruan94,2581,000,0002,000

4. Matriks Jarak

a. Matriks jarak dari lokasi pesaing ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)

Sumber /pesaingTujuan / Pasar ( KM)


Banyuwangi237126286

Sampang264153224

Bangkalan11419769

b. Matriks jarak dari bakal lokasi ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)

Bakal LokasiTujuan / Pasar (km )


Probolinggo30996385

Pasuruan87126146

5. Matriks Ongkos

a. Matriks ongkos dari lokasi pesaing ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)

Sumber /PesaingTujuan Pasar


Ongkos ProduksiOngkos DistribusiTotal OngkosOngkos ProduksiOngkos DistribusiTotal OngkosOngkos ProduksiOngkos DistribusiTotal Ongkos

Banyuwangi1,000,000474,0001,474,0001,000,000252,0001,252,0001,000,000572,0001,572,000

Sampang1,000,000528,0001,528,0001,000,000306,0001,306,0001,000,000448,0001,448,000

Bangkalan1,000,000228,0001,228,0001,000,000394,0001,394,0001,000,000138,0001,138,000

b. Matriks ongkos dari bakal lokasi ke lokasi pasar/tujuan (km)

Bakal LokasiTujuan Pasar


Ongkos ProduksiOngkos DistribusiTotal OngkosOngkos ProduksiOngkos DistribusiTotal OngkosOngkos ProduksiOngkos DistribusiTotal Ongkos

Probolinggo1,000,000618,0001,618,0001,000,000192,0001,192,0001,000,000770,0001,770,000

Pasuruan1,000,000174,0001,174,0001,000,000252,0001,252,0001,000,000292,0001,292,000

NCR (good)

6. Menentukan Lokasi dengan metode transportasi NCR

SumberTujuan / PasarKapasitas ProduksiZ=(75,924.02X1.474) +(70,821.84x1.528) +(18,344.75x1.306) +(83,088.00x1.394)

KediriBondowosoBojonegoroZ=111,912.006 +108,215.768 +23,958.24 +115,824.667

Banyuwangi1.4741.2521.57275,924Z=359,910.68

75,924

Sampang1.5281.3061.44889,167

70,82218,345

Bangkalan1.2281.3941.13883,088

83,088

Demand146,746135,310270,182

146,746101,433C12 =0.00

C31 =(0.39)

SumberTujuan / PasarKapasitas ProduksiZ=(75,924.02X1.474) +(0x1.528) +(89,166.58x1.306) +(12,266.16x1.394)+(70,821.84x1.228)

KediriBondowosoBojonegoroZ=111,912.006 +0 +116,451.56 +17,099.026+86,969.216

Banyuwangi1.4741.2521.57275,924Z=332,431.81

75,9240.0

Sampang1.5281.3061.44889,167

089,1670.0

Bangkalan1.2281.3941.13883,088

70,82212,2660.0

Demand146,746135,310270,182

C12 =(0.39)

SumberTujuan / PasarKapasitas ProduksiZ=(63,657.86X1.474) +(0x1.528) +(89,166.58x1.306) +(12,266.16x1.252)+(83,088.00x1.228)

KediriBondowosoBojonegoroZ=93,831.688 +0 +116,451.56 +15,357.231+102,032.060

Banyuwangi1.4741.2521.57275,924Z=327,672.54

63,65812,266

Sampang1.5281.3061.44889,167

089,167

Bangkalan1.2281.3941.13883,088

83,0880.0

Demand146,746135,310270,182

SumberTujuan / PasarKapasias Produksi

KediriBondowosoBojonegoroa. Untuk alternatif lokasi pabrik di Probolinggo

Probolinggo1.621.191.7794,258Z=(33,876.76X1.192)+

33,87760,381Z=147,256.30

Pasuruan1.171.251.2994,258

33,87760,381b. Untuk alternatif lokasi pabrik di Pasuruan

Demand033,877270,182Z=(33,876.76X1.252) +(60,381.47x1.292)

Z=42,413.70 +78,012.86

Z=120,426.57

Z= 42414

Z= 78013

KPT

7. Menentukan Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang

a. Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang/Tahun

Tahun Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang (Unit)

201494,25856.1157

2015140,46683.6184

2016186,673111.11112

2017232,880138.62139

2018279,087166.12167

b. Perhitungan KPT/jam

KPT/jam = KPT max / Jam kerja per tahun

KPT max = nilai KPT/tahun tertinggi di antara 5 tahun perhitungan

Jam kerja = 7 jam per hari x 5 hari per minggu x 4 minggu per bulan x 12 bulan per tahun = 1680 jam

Nilai KPT/jam selalu dibulatkan ke atas

KPT/tahun tertinggi adalah KPT tahun ke-5, yaitu sebesar 279087unit.

Maka:

KPT/jam = 279087 unit / 1680 jam

166.12unit

167unit

OPC

PETA PROSES OPERASI

Nama obyek : LEMARI 3 PINTU

Nomor peta : OPC-01

Dipetakan oleh : VACHRI MUHAMMAD (KELOMPOK 25) PTLP-UNSIKA

Tanggal dipetakan : 25 Mei 2014

(50) Pintu Lemari (3)(40) Atap Lemari (1)(30) Alas Lemari (1)(20) Penyangga Lemari (3)(10) Bag.Belakang Lemari (1)

Benang Kalapin ( 60 meter)Kayu Jati Landa (200 meter)Kayu Jati Landa (200 meter) Kayu Jati Landa (370)Kayu Jati Landa (370 meter)

(170x57x2) cm(140x60x4) cm(140x60x6) cm(170x60x2) cm(170x140x2) cm

Diukur dan di potong 2' Diukur dan di potong 2' Diukur dan di potong 2' Diukur dan di potong 2' Diukur dan di potong

Pencil,mistar,mesin Jigsaw2% Pencil,mistar,mesin Jigsaw2% Pencil,mistar,mesin Jigsaw2% Pencil,mistar,mesin Jigsaw2% Pencil,mistar,mesin Jigsaw

Diserut4'Diserut4'Diserut4'Diserut3'Diserut

Mesin serut5%Mesin serut5%Mesin serut5%Mesin serut5%Mesin serut

Duco (100)gramDuco (100)gramDuco (100)gramDuco (100)gramDuco (100)gram

Didempul3'Didempul3'Didempul3'Didempul3'Didempul

Meja kerja0%Meja kerja0%Meja kerja0%Meja kerja0%Meja kerja

Ampelas 80Ampelas 80Ampelas 80Ampelas 80Ampelas 80

Dihaluskan3'Dihaluskan3'Dihaluskan3'Dihaluskan3'Dihaluskan

Mesin Amplas elektrik2%Mesin Amplas elektrik2%Mesin Amplas elektrik2%Mesin Amplas elektrik2%Mesin Amplas elektrik

Assembly I

Paku biasa+Paku tembak

5'Rakit bag.belakang lemari dengan sisi lemari

0%Ruang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku

Assembly II


3'Pasang alas lemari pada rakitan


Assembly III


3'Pasang atap lemari pada rakitan


Assembly IV

Triplek, engsel,list parnel,list soko,lis topi, skrup tarikan

3'Pasang pintu lemari pada rakitan

0%Ruang Assy + obeng

Duco (300)gram

2'Didempul sambungan- sambungan rakitan

0%Ruang Assembly

Ampelas 100

3'Diamplas sambungan- sambungan rakitan

0%Ruang Assembly

Melamik,tiner,cat putih, cat coklat, cat wash,pelitur

3'Di plitur hasil rakitan akhir

0%Ruang Assembly

60'Dikeringkan

0%Ruang pengering

10'Pemeriksaan akhir

RINGKASAN0%Ruang inpeksi

KegiatanJumlahWaktu (mnt)

28755.00

110.00

Total29765.00

120

225

330

425

520

625

730

825

920

1025

1130

1225

1320

1425

1530

1625

1720

1825

1930

2025

2145

2225

2325

2425

2520

2625

2730

2860

O - 5

I - 1

O-6

O-7

O-8

O-18

O-19

O-20

O-17

2'

4'

5%

2%

3'

0%

3'

2%

O-13

O-14

O-15

O-16

O - 9

O-10

O-11

O-12

O - 1

O-2

O-3

O-4

O-21

O-22

O-23

O-24

O-25

O-26

O-24

O-25

O-25

O-26

O-26

O-25

O-23

O-26

O-25

O-27

O-28

RS LEMARI

ROUTING SHEET LEMARI 3 PINTU

Kapasitas Produksi Terpasang ( UNIT ) = 167

No. OperasiDeskripsiMesin/AlatProduksi Mesin/jam% ScraptBahan dimintaBahan disiapkanEfisiensi mesin (85 %)Keb. Mesin teoritisKeb. Mesin aktual

abcdf = 85%xdg = f / ah=pemb. g

10Bag.Belakang Lemari (1)

Diukur dan di potongPencil,mistar,mesin jigsaw30.02179.4183.0155.65.26

DiserutMesin serut20.05170.4179.4152.57.68

DidempulMeja kerja20.00170.4170.4144.87.28

DihaluskanMesin Amplas Elektrik20.02167.0170.4144.87.28

20Penyangga Lemari (3)30





30Alas Lemari (1)





40Atap Lemari (1)





50Pintu Lemari (3)





60Assembling I

Rakit bag.belakang lemari dengan sisi lemariRuang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku12.00167.0167.0142.011.812

70Assembling II

Pasang alas lemari pada rakitanRuang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku20.00167.0167.0142.07.18

80Assembling III

Pasang atap lemari pada rakitanRuang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku20.00167.0167.0142.07.18

90Assembling IV

Pasang pintu lemari pada rakitanRuang Assy + obeng20.00167.0167.0142.07.18

Didempul sambungan- sambungan rakitanRuang Assembly30.00167.0167.0142.04.75

Diamplas sambungan- sambungan rakitanRuang Assembly20.00167.0167.0142.07.18

Di plitur hasil rakitan akhirRuang Assembly20.00167.0167.0142.07.18

DikeringkanRuang Pengering1.00167.0167.0142.0142.0142

Pemeriksaan akhirRuang inpeksi6.00167.0167.0142.023.724

Total484501

mppc lemari

MULTI PROUDUCT PROCES CHART (MPPC)

DepartemenKomponen/PeralatanFabrikasiJml. Mesin teoritisAssemblingJml. Mesin teoritisTotal Mesin aktual

102030405060708090

FABRIKASIReceiving

Pencil,mistar,mesin jigsaw61666165050

Mesin serut8311111319292

Meja kerja82288226868

Mesin Amplas Elektrik82288226868

Storage

ASSEMBLINGReceiving

Ruang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku12882828

Ruang Assy + obeng888

Ruang Assembly5882121

Ruang Pengering142142142

Ruang inpeksi242424

Storage

Total278223501

150

56

275

481

L.Gudang Bahan Baku

A. LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU

1. LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU UTAMA

Kode KomponenNama KomponenPotongan AssemblingType BahanUkuran Pakai ( m )Produk/jam (Unit)Unit 5 Hari (Unit)Volume Unit (m)Volume Kebutuhan (m)Ukuran TumpukanLuas Lantai (m)Allaw 300% (m)Total Luas (m)

DPLTDPLT

10Bag.Belakang Lemari 1Kayu Jati Landa1.71.40.021836,4060.04763051.7101.470.021001675006667,0003338

20Penyangga Lemari 3Kayu Jati Landa1.70.60.0254919,2190.02043921.7190.6110.0210021364085320,90042614

30Alas Lemari 1Kayu Jati Landa1.40.60.061836,4060.05043231.4150.6130.06331644916556,50032814

40Atap Lemari1Kayu Jati Landa1.40.60.041836,4060.03362151.4130.6100.04501093284376,50021811

50Pintu Lemari 3Kayu Jati Landa1.70.570.0254919,2190.01943721.7100.57200.0210019458177520,00038814

LUAS TOTAL3,386

11710

2327

3218

4186

51711

2. LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU TAMBAHAN

Kode KomponenNama KomponenPotongan AssemblingType BahanUkuran Pakai ( m )Unit SediaProduk/jam (Unit)Unit/jam (Unit)Unit 5 Hari (Unit)Volume Unit (m)Volume Kebutuhan (m)Ukuran RakLuas Lantai (m)Allaw 300% (m)Total Luas (m)

DPLTDPLT

211Duko0.8Pasta0.200.305134279350.009490.200.20120.20120.3076172396012

212Ampelas 800.5Kain0.200.200.20384289740.008080.20100.20100.2010412161,0008

213Ampelas 1000.5Kain0.200.200.20384289740.008080.20100.20100.2010412161,0008

214Pelitur0.5Cairan0.150.15584175850.002620.150.1570.1570.15131346532

215Skrup0.25Baja0.200.150.10442103650.003010.2050.1540.10201224001

216Engsel4.5Besi0.300.150.0515752501,7540.002340.3060.1580.05402691,9204

217Paku tembak1Baja0.200.150.105167331,1690.003040.2090.1570.10202681,2604

218Paku Biasa0.5Baja0.200.150.10584175850.003020.2060.1550.10201346002

219Melamik2.5Cairan0.200.1510418421,4610.004770.200.20110.20100.1513413181,4679

220Tiner5Cairan0.200.3020835421,4610.0094140.200.20150.20150.307927361,50018

221Cat Putih0.5Cairan0.100.10484217310.000810.100.1060.1070.10200128401

222Cat Coklat0.5Cairan0.100.10484217310.000810.100.1060.1070.10200128401

223Cat Wash0.25Cairan0.100.10342144870.000800.100.1050.1050.10200115001

224Tarikan3Besi0.100.050.0510501501,7540.000300.1070.0570.05400111,9600

225Lis Parnel4Besi4.000.050.0110668672,3380.002054.0020.0560.0120027102,4005

226Lis Topi2Besi2.000.020.0110334331,1690.000402.0020.0230.012000111,2000

227Lis Soko6Kayu6.000.0030.01201,002501,7540.000206.0030.00330.012000011,8000

228Triplek2Kayu2.001.500.00310334331,1690.0090112.0011.5020.003667618241,33312

LUAS TOTAL176

LUAS LANTAI RECEIVING TOTAL = LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU UTAMA + LUAS LANTAI GUDANG BAHAN BAKU TAMBAHAN

MAKA

LUAS LANTAI RECEIVING TOTAL =427,105 m2 + 22,228 m212212

LUAS LANTAI RECEIVING TOTAL =3,562m222210

0.4HA32210

4117

5114

6217

7218

8115

92210

103315

11116

12116

13115

14107

15803

16402

171803

18231

7,000960935

20,9001000974

6,5001000974

6,500653.3333333333585

20,000400365

19201754

12601169

600585

1466.66666666671461

15001461

840731

840731

500487

19601754

24002338

12001169

18001754

1333.33333333331169

L. Produksi

B. LUAS LANTAI PRODUKSI

10. Bag.Belakang Lemari (1)

DeskripsiNama mesin/AlatJumlah Mesin (Unit)Ukuran MesinLuas Mesin (m)Luas Total (m)Toleransi (%)Luas (m)Allow (%)Luas (m)Total Luas (m)

PL

Diukur dan di potongPencil,mistar,mesin jigsaw63395430016212568284

DiserutMesin serut80.50.50.2523006200412

DidempulMeja kerja8224323009620064192

DihaluskanMesin Amplas Elektrik8224323009620064192

LUAS TOTAL680

20. Penyangga Lemari (3)


PL





LUAS TOTAL1,439

30. Alas Lemari (1)


PL





LUAS TOTAL527

40. Atap Lemari (1)


PL





LUAS TOTAL527

50. Pintu Lemari (3)


PL





LUAS TOTAL1,439

60. Assembling I

DeskripsiNama mesin/AlatJumlah Mesin (Unit)Ukuran MesinLuas Mesin (m)Luas Total (m)Toleransi (%)Luas (m)Allow (%)Luas (m)Total Luas (m)445

PL297

Rakit bag.belakang lemari dengan sisi lemariRuang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku12339108300324100108540445

297

141

3

LUAS TOTAL540

70. Assembling II


PL

Pasang alas lemari pada rakitanRuang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku83397230021610072360

LUAS TOTAL360

80. Assembling III


PL

Pasang atap lemari pada rakitanRuang Assy + Palu + mesin tembak paku83397230021610072360

LUAS TOTAL360

90. Assembling IV

DeskripsiNama mesin/AlatJumlah Mesin (Unit)U

Documents

Bab II PTLP.doc