Aspo2005 Pang

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    The Challenges Brought By The Shortage

    of Oil And Gas In China And Their Countermeasures

    Pang Xiongqi, Meng Qingyang

    Zhang Jun, Natori Mariko

    China University of Petroleum in Beijing

    Key Laboratory For Hydrocarbon Accumulation Mechanism,

    Ministry of Education, PRC

    Emailpangxq@bjpeu.edu.cn

    Tele: 86-010-89733346

    Fax: 86-010-89733423

    Mobile: 13701296729

    mailto:pangxq@bjpeu.edu.cnmailto:pangxq@bjpeu.edu.cn
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    Contents

    I. Forward

    II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil

    and Gas Resources

    III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production inChina and their Prediction

    IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in

    China and Their Prediction

    V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas

    in China and Their Countermeasures

    . Conclusions

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    1. Brief Introduction of China

    Location: Northern Hemisphere, Asia Country land area: 9.6 million km2

    Population: About 1.3 Billion Foundation: in 1949, PRC

    Nationalities: 56 (Mainly Han Nationality) Open door policy: Since 1978

    Beijing, ChinaLisbon, Portugal

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    2. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Exploration in China

    Oil and Gas Resources are Distributed in Four Areas: East, Middle, West and South China Sea

    Brief Introduction of Oil and Gas Exploration in China (until the end of 2003) :

    Total Amount Oil= 101 billion tones Gas= 42 trillion m3Proved Oil= 23.42 billion tonesGas= 3.8695 trillion m3Proved Recoverable Oil= 6.513 billion tonesGas= 2.4646 trillion m3Left Recoverable Oil= 2.381 billion tonesGas=2.0894 trillion m3

    I. Forward

    Legends East area

    Middle area

    West area

    South Chinasea area

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    3. Brief Introduction to Chinas Shortage of Oil

    Comparison between Oil Production and Demand in China

    (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)

    2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

    Oil Production

    Oil Consumption

    162222 170

    260

    190

    360

    200

    310

    420

    220

    490

    240

    Unit: million tones

    I. Forward

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    3. Brief Introduction to Chinas Shortage of Gas

    Comparison between Gas Production and Demand in China

    (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)

    I. Forward

    265265 420

    500 7201000 1000

    14001200

    1800

    1200

    2700

    1200

    3400

    2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

    Gas Production

    Gas Consumption

    Unit: hundred million cubic meters

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    Contents

    I. Forward

    II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil

    and Gas Resources

    III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production inChina and their Prediction

    IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in

    China and Their Prediction

    V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas

    in China and Their Countermeasures

    . Conclusions

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    02

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

    GDP

    Increase

    R

    ate

    (%)

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

    The GDP increases very fast in recent 20 years in China and

    the average increase rate can reach 9% per year

    Brief introduction to economy growth in recent 20 years in China

    (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)

    1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil

    and gas resources

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    The relation between oil consumption increase and yearly

    economy increase in China

    (From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

    1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil

    and gas resources

    -0.5

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

    The increase of demand on oil and gas per year will

    reach 0.65% with 1% increase of Chinas GDP.

    oilconsumptionincreaserate

    /e

    conomyincreasera

    te

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    The oil consumption increase curve with time in China

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

    1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil

    and gas resources

    The increase rate of yearly oil

    consumption in recent 10 years is five times

    higher than that of 10 years before .

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    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    800

    900

    1000

    1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001

    Oil

    co

    ns

    ump

    tio

    n(millio

    n

    to

    nnes

    ) U.K China Japan U.S.A Yearly Oil

    consumption of

    China has reached 3

    hundred million

    tones and just next

    to the U.S.A

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

    Gas

    consumption

    million

    tonnes

    oil

    equivale

    nt)

    U.S.A U.K China JapanYearly gas

    consumption rate ofChina is increasing

    fast but relatively

    still little comparing

    with other developed

    countries

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

    1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil

    and gas resources

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    Million barrels per day 2004Oil & Gas Journal July 5th 2004

    Australia uses 0.8

    China 6.3US 20.5

    World 81

    US 1 cubic km oil / year

    Australia China United States

    1 kml l

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

    1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil

    and gas resourcesOil consumption of China is 7.8 of the consumption all over the world, while U.S.A is 25.3%.

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    2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with

    the development of economy in the future

    Forecast on economy increase of China in the coming 10 years

    (Beijing Statistic information website, 2005)

    0

    5000

    10000

    15000

    20000

    25000

    30000

    35000

    1975 1985 1995 2005 2015GDP(hundred

    million

    dollar

    s)

    The GDP growth rate will be averagely 7.5%~9% per year with personal

    GDP reaching 2600~3100 dollars in the coming 10 years.

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

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    Forecast curves on oil demand by different scholars

    of China in the coming 15 years

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

    Yearlydemand

    (milliontonnes)

    Tsinghua

    University

    Zhang Rong

    Mu Shuling

    Mineral

    Dept.

    Average

    The oil demand of China in 2020

    will be todays 1.5 times and reach

    4 hundred million tones

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

    2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing

    with the development of economy in the future

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    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    2005

    2006

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    Yearly

    Dema

    nd

    (hundred

    millioncub

    ic

    meters)

    Zhang Kang

    Mu Shuling

    Average

    II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of

    Oil and Gas Resources

    2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with

    the development of economy in the future

    Forecast curves on gas demand by different scholars

    of China in the coming 15 years

    The gas demand of China will be todays 3.5 times

    and reach 180 billion cubic meters in 2020.

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    Contents

    I. Forward

    II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil

    and Gas Resources

    III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production inChina and their Prediction

    IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in

    China and Their Prediction

    V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gasin China and Their Countermeasures

    . Conclusions

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    1. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas

    Exploration in China ( until the end

    of 2003):

    III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in ChinaandTheir Prediction

    Year

    Accumulated

    found

    geological

    reserves

    108t

    Accumulated

    found

    recoverable

    reserves

    108t

    Yearly

    increase of

    recoverable

    reserves

    108t