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Bodemdaling
Gilles Erkens &
de taskforce bodemdaling
Land subsidence: why bother?
17 juni 2014
17 juni 2014
What causes the land to subside?
Natural causes (geological processes):
Loading of the earth’s crust by ice sheets, sediment (delta’s), the ocean/sea
Compaction of older sediments after sedimentation
Anthropogenic causes (human-induced processes):
Oil/gas extraction (usually relatively deep)
Groundwater extraction (usually moderately deep)
Drainage of soils oxidation of peat, soil compaction
Loading of buildings, structures
Why discriminating between human-induced and natural processes?
Magnitude
Cooping strategy (mitigation versus adaptation)
9 m
land
subsidence
between
1925-1977
(52 years)
~ 17.3 cm/y
Impacts of land subsidence
17 juni 2014
1) Flooding 2) Damage to structures
Media Aandacht!
Problematiek: GW onttrekking
Groundwater extraction leads to subsidence Subsidence map of Jakarta 1974-2010:
-4,1 meter
-2,1 meter -1,4 meter
-0,7 meter
-0.25 meter
Extensometer at Jalan Tongkol
4,5 cm
1997
2007
3 cm
2009
2010
41 cm Jan84 Jan86 Jan88 Jan90 Jan92 Jan94 Jan96-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
Date
Pz.
Head (
m)
d:\Jakarta\Maathuis_data\CKG-PDK2.xls
Jan84 Jan86 Jan88 Jan90 Jan92 Jan94 Jan96-40
-38
-36
-34
-32
-30
Date
Pz.
Head (
m)
d:\Jakarta\Maathuis_data\CKG-PDK3.xls
Jan84 Jan86 Jan88 Jan90 Jan92 Jan94-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Date
Pz.
Head (
m)
d:\Jakarta\Maathuis_data\CKG-PDK4.xls
Subsiding cities: • Jakarta • HCMC • Bangkok • Manila • Dhaka • New Orleans • Singapore • Hanoi • Richmond • Shanghai • Venice • Lorca • Mexico City • and many more
Land subsidence vs absolute sea-level rise
17 juni 2014
The sinking cities assessment
17 juni 2014
1. How much subsidence is there?
2. What is causing subsidence?
A quick subsidence assessment for mega-cities:
Jakarta, Ho-Chi-Minh City, Dhaka, New Orleans, Bangkok
3. How much subsidence is predicted?
4. What impact has subsidence?
5. Who is responsible?
6. What are solutions?
The assessment aimed to: • Get insight in the
processes • To obtain a research
agenda for this topic • To list best practice
cases for others to learn
NEW ORLEANS
JAKARTA
TOKYO
DHAKA
HCMC
BANGKOK
De bijdrage van Deltares
17 juni 2014
We willen:
- De oorzaak begrijpen
- Een voorspelling kunnen maken
- Oplossingen kunnen aandragen
-4,1 meter
-1,4 meter -2,1 meter
-0,7 meter
-0.25 meter
-4,1 meter
-2,1 meter -1,4 meter
-0,7 meter
-0.25 meter New Orleans, USA
Jakarta, Indonesia
Methodologie: Integratie van monitoring en modellering
Geological model
of the subsurface
Geomechanical
modelling
Forecasted
ground-motion
Ground-motion
monitoring data
Va
l ida
tion
&Im
pro
ve
me
nt
Comparison &
inverse modelling
Risk analysis &
Decision making
Specific requirements to satellite data
Geological model
of the subsurface
Geomechanical
modelling
Forecasted
ground-motion
Ground-motion
monitoring data
Va
l ida
tion
&Im
pro
ve
me
nt
Comparison &
inverse modelling
Risk analysis &
Decision making
Specific requirements to satellite data
Geo(hydro)logical
modelling
iMOD SUB-CR
Meerwaarde van iMOD
• Directe koppeling met het grondwatermodel • Dezelfde schematisatie van de ondergrond, • Snel doorrekenen van effect grondwaterstandsverlagingen, • Inbrengen van grondwaterpompen
• Goed medium om ondergronddata te visualiseren
• Mogelijkheden tot 3D bekijken data • Mogelijkheden tot het tekenen van profielen
Geologisch + geohydrologisch model Droombeeld
17 juni 2014
Voorbeeld Ho Chi Minh City, Ngo Duc Chan 2008
MS
ettle
7.3
: jwrm
sF
it2.sli
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
>
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
> <
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Ph
on
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No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Fa
x<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
da
te
<N
ot R
egiste
red
><
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
17/0
3/2
01
1
An
ne
x
Input View
Layers
8. Aquifer 1
7. Aquitard 1
6. Aquifer 2
5. Aquitard 2
4. Aquifer 3
3. Aquitard 3
2. Aquifer 4
1. Aquitard 4
0.000 10.000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2
1
-4
-59
-69
-119
-129
-169
-179
-249
1
-4
-59
-69
-119
-129
-169
-179
-249
Level (m)
Realiteit
Is gekoppelde modellering mogelijk?
2000: USGS Modflow SUB package
2005: USGS Modflow SUB-WT
2012: Deltares SUB-CR
2013: Deltares iMOD SUB-CR
•Interbeds: lenzen van lutumhoudende fijnzandige grondlagen in aquifers
•Aquitards: uitgestrekte lutumhoudende fijnzandige geologische afzettingen.
Kenmerken van het SUB-CR model
– Is een gekoppeld bodemdaling-grondwatermodel (geen fysisch ondergrondmodel)
–Maakt betere bodemdalingvoorspellingen door meenemen van kruip (secondary settlement) Gekoppeld aan iMOD
–3D-berekeningen
–Werkt op grote schaal (>1 km2): megasteden, hele delta’s
Resultaten uit Jakarta
Evaluatie bodemdaling voor scenario’s onttrekkingen
2) Extrapolatie huidige situatie 3) Herstel naar situatie 1995
Z2100 = - 3.88 m Z2100 = - 3.11 m
1) Toenemende verlaging 1m/jr 4) Snel herstel situatie 1995
Z2100 = - 5.69 m Z2100 = - 2.77 m
17 juni 2014
MS
ettle
7.3
: jwrm
sF
it2.s
li
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
>
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
> <
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Ph
on
e<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Fa
x<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
da
te
<N
ot R
egis
tere
d>
<N
ot R
egis
tere
d>
17
/03
/20
11
Annex
Time-History (Fit)
Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m)
Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain)
Fit factors used
Coefficient of determination = 0.902
Depth = 1.000 [m]
Settlement after 49275 days = 3.879 [m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
4.000000
3.000000
2.000000
1.000000
0.000000
Se
ttle
me
nt
[m]
Measurement
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Time [days]
-0.000010
-0.000005
0.000000
0.000005
0.000010
Lo
ad
ing
[kP
a]
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Time (days)
MS
ettle
7.3
: jwrm
sF
it2.s
li
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
>
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
> <
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Ph
on
e<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Fa
x<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
da
te
<N
ot R
egis
tere
d>
<N
ot R
egis
tere
d>
17
/03
/20
11
Annex
Time-History (Fit)
Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m)
Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain)
Fit factors used
Coefficient of determination = 0.902
Depth = 1.000 [m]
Settlement after 49275 days = 3.879 [m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
4.000000
3.000000
2.000000
1.000000
0.000000
Se
ttle
me
nt
[m]
Measurement
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Time [days]
-0.000010
-0.000005
0.000000
0.000005
0.000010
Lo
ad
ing
[kP
a]
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Year
Time (days)
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
MS
ettle
7.3
: jwrm
sF
it2m
ore
DD
.sli
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
>
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
> <
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Ph
on
e<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Fa
x<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
da
te
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
><
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
20
/03
/20
11
Annex
Time-History
Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m)
Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain)
Depth = 1.000 [m]
Settlement after 49275 days = 5.693 [m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
4.000000
2.000000
0.000000
Se
ttle
me
nt
[m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Time [days]
-0.000010
-0.000005
0.000000
0.000005
0.000010
Lo
ad
ing
[kP
a]
Year
Time (days)
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
MS
ettle
7.3
: jwrm
sF
it2m
ore
DD
.sli
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
>
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
> <
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Ph
on
e<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Fa
x<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
da
te
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
><
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
20
/03
/20
11
Annex
Time-History
Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m)
Method = NEN - Bjerrum with Terzaghi (Linear strain)
Depth = 1.000 [m]
Settlement after 49275 days = 5.693 [m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
4.000000
2.000000
0.000000
Se
ttle
me
nt
[m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Time [days]
-0.000010
-0.000005
0.000000
0.000005
0.000010
Lo
ad
ing
[kP
a]
Year
Time (days)
MS
ettle
7.3
: jwrm
sF
it2re
co
ve
r.sli
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
>
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
> <
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Ph
on
e<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Fa
x<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
da
te
<N
ot R
egiste
red>
<N
ot R
egiste
red>
18/0
3/2
011
Annex
Time-History
Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m)
Method = NEN - Bjerrum w ith Terzaghi (Linear strain)
Depth = 1.000 [m]
Settlement after 49275 days = 3.111 [m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
4.000000
3.000000
2.000000
1.000000
0.000000
Se
ttle
me
nt [m
]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Time [days]
-0.000010
-0.000005
0.000000
0.000005
0.000010
Lo
ad
ing
[kP
a]
MS
ettle
7.3
: jwrm
sF
it2re
co
ve
r.sli
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
>
<N
ot R
eg
iste
red
> <
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Ph
on
e<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
Fa
x<
No
t Re
gis
tere
d>
da
te
<N
ot R
egiste
red>
<N
ot R
egiste
red>
18/0
3/2
011
Annex
Time-History
Vertical 1 (X = 0.000 m; Z = 0.000 m)
Method = NEN - Bjerrum w ith Terzaghi (Linear strain)
Depth = 1.000 [m]
Settlement after 49275 days = 2.765 [m]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
4.000000
3.000000
2.000000
1.000000
0.000000
Se
ttle
me
nt [m
]
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Time [days]
-0.000010
-0.000005
0.000000
0.000005
0.000010
Lo
ad
ing
[kP
a]
Toekomstige ontwikkelingen
iMOD SUB-CR
Inzetten in nieuwe case studie gebieden: New Orleans, Jakarta
Gebruik voor opbouw van ondergrondmodellen en
informatiesystemen van delta steden
Gebruikmaken van bestaande Modflow-modellen voor floodrisk
studies
Koppeling met beleidsbeslissingsmodellen en kostenmodules
uit het schade-onderzoek
17 juni 2014
4D: Jurong Island
17 juni 2014
Thank you