DSD-NL 2014 - iMOD Symposium - 9. iPEST - iMOD parameter estimation, Peter Vermeulen, Deltares

  • View
    182

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Text of DSD-NL 2014 - iMOD Symposium - 9. iPEST - iMOD parameter estimation, Peter Vermeulen, Deltares

  • 1. Tuesday June 16, 2014 iPEST iMOD Parameter Estimation PTM Vermeulen1 1 Deltares Unit Subsurface and Groundwater Systems, Groundwater Management, the Netherlands

2. iPEST Minimaliseer gesommeerde afwijkingen : - Grondwaterstanden met metingen; - Berekende afvoeren met afvoermetingen; - etc. door aanpassen model parameters: - doorlatendheden en weerstanden; - bergingscoefficienten; - etc. 17 juni 2014 Minimale gesommeerde afwijking Groter gesommeerde afwijkingen 3. iPEST Minimalisatie strategie - richting - Gebaseerd op Levenberg Marquardt kleinste kwadraten methode - Gradienten (ver weg van het minimum) en Gauss-Newton approximation (dicht bij het minimum) 17 juni 2014 Gradienten Methode Gauss-Newton Methode 4. iPEST Minimalisatie strategie - stapgrootte - Grootte stap bij kleine verbetering doelfunctie (kleine gevoeligheid); - Kleine stap bij grote verbetering doelfunctie (grote gevoeligheid); - Maximale verandering per parameter per richtingsverandering; 17 juni 2014 Ongevoelige parameters vertragen process (scaling, eigenvalues) 5. iPEST 17 juni 2014 Gevoeligheid i Bereken Doelfunctie Bereken Model Update Parameters < Doel- functie i-1 Kleinere stap in aanpassings richting parameters ( line-search ) Bereken Model start neeSignifi- cant? ja Stop nee ja einde aantal parameters n 6. iPEST iPEST Package 17 juni 2014 d:iMODTestBankiPESTresults 2 2 10 0 1 0 0 1 d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbasemeasuremeasure004.ipf,2,1,2,3,4,5 1 0 0 0 0 20 30 0.100E-02 0.100E+03 0.980E+00 200000.0 400000.0 202500.0 402500.0 25.0 0.0 ACTIVE MODULES 1,0 (PST) 1,0 (BND) 1,1,1 (SHD) 1,0 (STO) 0,0 (ANI) 1,0 (KDW) 1,0 (vcw) 1,0 (RCH) 1,0 (WEL) eenvoudig aan/uitzetten 7. iPEST Minimaliseer Package 17 juni 2014 d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF MODULES FOR EACH LAYER 4,(PST) 50,0.0001,0.0,0,0,1.0,0.0 1,"kd",1, 1 0.24,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 2 30.53,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 3 0.02,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 4 35.74,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1 d:iMOD-SVNTestBankiPESTdbasezonezone004.idf 2,(BND) 1,1.0,0.0,d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF 2,1.0,0.0,1.0 8. iPEST Minimaliseer Package 17 juni 2014 d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF MODULES FOR EACH LAYER 4,(PST) 50,0.0001,0.0,0,0,1.0,0.0 1,"kd",1, 1 0.24,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 2 30.53,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 3 0.02,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 4 35.74,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1 d:iMOD-SVNTestBankiPESTdbasezonezone004.idf 2,(BND) 1,1.0,0.0,d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF 2,1.0,0.0,1.0 KD KH KV VC SC RC RI DC IC II AH AF VA HF MS MC 9. iPEST Minimaliseer Package 17 juni 2014 d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF MODULES FOR EACH LAYER 4,(PST) 50,0.0001,0.0,0,0,1.0,0.0 1,"kd",1, 1 0.24,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 2 30.53,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 3 0.02,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 4 35.74,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1 d:iMOD-SVNTestBankiPESTdbasezonezone004.idf 2,(BND) 1,1.0,0.0,d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF 2,1.0,0.0,1.0 ZONE 1 ZONE 2 ZONE 3 ZONE 4 INITIAL PARAMETER VALUE 10. iPEST Functionaliteiten: - Groeperen van parameters; - Eenvoudig definieren van perioden, bijv: 17 juni 2014 d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF MODULES FOR EACH LAYER 4,(PST) 50,0.0001,0.0,1,0,1.0,0.0 20140101 20140616 1,"kd",1, 1 0.24,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0,1 1,"kd",1, 2 30.53,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0,1 1,"kd",1, 3 0.02,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0,2 1,"kd",1, 4 35.74,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0,2 1 d:iMOD-SVNTestBankiPESTdbasezonezone004.idf 11. iPEST Functionaliteiten: - Gebruik externe batchfiles (>=1); - Zonenummers kunnen real zijn waarbij fractie gebruikt wordt om deel van parameter te optimaliseren 17 juni 2014 d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbaseIB1.IDF MODULES FOR EACH LAYER 4,(PST) 50,0.0001,0.0,0,1,0.5,0.0 0.5,d:balance.bat balance.txt 1,"kd",1, 1 0.24,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 2 30.53,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 3 0.02,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1,"kd",1, 4 35.74,1.1,0.01,100.0,10.0 1 d:iMOD-SVNTestBankiPESTdbasezonezone004.idf balance.bat balance.txt N Meting, weging, berekende waarde 12. iPEST Functionaliteiten: - Parameter optimalisatie voor deelgebieden en/of verschillende schalen: 17 juni 2014 d:iMODTestBankiPESTresults 2 2 10 0 1 0 0 -1 d:iMODTestBankiPESTdbasemeasuremeasure004.ipf,2,1,2,3,4,5 1 0 0 0 0 20 30 0.100E-02 0.100E+03 0.980E+00 200000.0 400000.0 202500.0 402500.0 100.0 0.0 ACTIVE MODULES 1,0 (PST) 13. iPEST 17 juni 2014 IT GD LS TOT_J KD001001 KD001002 KD001003 KD001004 001 002 003 004 1 0 0 0.1089186E+02 0.240 30.530 0.020 35.740 1 1 0 0.1088020E+02 0.264 30.530 0.020 35.740 1 2 0 0.1109300E+02 0.240 33.583 0.020 35.740 1 3 0 0.1088994E+02 0.240 30.530 0.022 35.740 1 4 0 0.1109104E+02 0.240 30.530 0.020 39.314 Sensitivity (.):-.4336E-01-.1118E-02-.3200E-01-.9355E-03 Sensitivity (%): 56.013 1.444 41.335 1.208 Lambda/Damping Factor = 0.2919292 Steepest Descent 1 0 1 0.2167495E+01 0.296 4.604 0.021 5.137 2 1 0 0.2157394E+01 0.325 4.604 0.021 5.137 2 2 0 0.2317800E+01 0.296 5.064 0.021 5.137 2 3 0 0.2166126E+01 0.296 4.604 0.023 5.137 2 4 0 0.2328357E+01 0.296 4.604 0.021 5.651 Sensitivity (.):-.3830E-01-.1292E-01-.3840E-01-.1171E-01 Sensitivity (%): 37.797 12.754 37.896 11.553 Lambda/Damping Factor = 3.3749999E-03 Gauss Newton eerste optimalisatie cycli gevoeligheids cycli 14. iPEST 17 juni 2014 IT GD LS TOT_J KD001001 KD001002 KD001003 KD001004 001 002 003 004 2 0 1 0.2537032E+00 1.610 1.527 0.101 1.485 3 1 0 0.2853811E+00 1.771 1.527 0.101 1.485 3 2 0 0.2771948E+00 1.610 1.680 0.101 1.485 3 3 0 0.2500343E+00 1.610 1.527 0.111 1.485 3 4 0 0.2724504E+00 1.610 1.527 0.101 1.634 Sensitivity (.):-.2619E-01-.2676E-01-.3543E-01-.2695E-01 Sensitivity (%): 22.708 23.202 30.721 23.370 Lambda/Damping Factor = 7.5937500E-03 3 0 1 0.1433038E-01 1.044 1.149 0.681 1.163 4 1 0 0.2051781E-01 1.149 1.149 0.681 1.163 4 2 0 0.1882220E-01 1.044 1.264 0.681 1.163 4 3 0 0.9693440E-02 1.044 1.149 0.749 1.163 4 4 0 0.1895949E-01 1.044 1.149 0.681 1.280 Sensitivity (.):-.3103E-01-.2966E-01-.3072E-01-.2986E-01 Sensitivity (%): 25.584 24.461 25.333 24.622 Lambda/Damping Factor = 1.0000000E-03 15. iPEST 17 juni 2014 IT GD LS TOT_J KD001001 KD001002 KD001003 KD001004 001 002 003 004 4 0 1 0.1276288E-03 0.924 1.099 0.964 1.087 5 1 0 0.2125847E-02 1.017 1.099 0.964 1.087 5 2 0 0.2216863E-02 0.924 1.209 0.964 1.087 5 3 0 0.2026457E-02 0.924 1.099 1.061 1.087 5 4 0 0.2326530E-02 0.924 1.099 0.964 1.195 Sensitivity (.):-.3216E-01-.2991E-01-.2824E-01-.3053E-01 Sensitivity (%): 26.613 24.751 23.372 25.265 Lambda/Damping Factor = 1.0000000E-03 5 0 1 0.2192430E-04 0.915 1.096 0.943 1.082 16. iPEST - Robustness 17 juni 2014 IT GD LS TOT_J KD001001 KD001002 KD001003 KD001004 KD001005 KD001006 KD001007 KD001008 KD001009 KD001010 KD001011 KD001012 KD001013 KD001014 KD001015 KD001016 KD001017 KD001018 KD001019 KD001020 KD001021 KD001022 KD001023 KD001024 KD001025 001 002 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 012 013 014 015 016 017 018 019 020 021 022 023 024 025 1 0 0 0.9915511E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 1 0 0.9969008E+01 2.684 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 2 0 0.9913670E+01 2.440 0.022 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 3 0 0.9913683E+01 2.440 0.020 0.022 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 4 0 0.9998845E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.904 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 5 0 0.9912876E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.022 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 6 0 0.1003987E+02 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 23.254 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 7 0 0.9914332E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.033 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 8 0 0.9913973E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.022 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 9 0 0.1004101E+02 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.919 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 10 0 0.1016891E+02 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 45.716 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 11 0 0.9911916E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.198 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 12 0 0.9915327E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.022 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 13 0 0.9914753E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.022 70.700 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 14 0 0.9918769E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 77.770 0.020 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 15 0 0.9913712E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.022 0.310 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 16 0 0.9907606E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.290 41.560 0.180 0.020 0.020 70.700 0.020 0.341 17.540 40.750 20.370 0.190 0.130 0.250 0.050 0.170 0.040 1 17 0 0.9912938E+01 2.440 0.020 0.020 2.640 0.020 21.140 0.030 0.020 6.29