2015 Demography of Education.docx

7/24/2019 2015 Demography of Education.docx

1/66

1. Education and training workforce supply pipelines

2. Trends in education in Australia and selected overseas countries


2/66

References ABS (201! Schools Australia 2014. "o##onwealt$ of Australia% "an&erra.

ABS (2012! and (2001! Year Book of Australia. "$apters of Education and Training.

ABS (2012! Social Trends.

"larke' ira (201! Australia needs to do #ore to arrest t$e decline in

apprentices$ips. The Conversation https://theconversation.co/australia!needs!

to!do!ore!to!arrest!the!decline!in!apprenticeships!4"#42

)epart#ent of Education and Training (201! Selected $i%her &ducation Statistics

)epart#ent of *##igration and "iti+ens$ip. (2012! 'opulation (lo)s *i%ration

Aspects 2010!11.

,S- re#iers )epart#ent (200/! +orkforce 'lannin%: A ,uide

,S- )epart#ent of Education and "o##unities (201! 201 Teac$ing -orkforce

Supply and )e#and

ut+' -.' "uares#o' ."' and Sanderson' -. (2003! T$e )e#ograp$y of Educational

Attain#ent and Econo#ic 4rowt$. Science. /15(366!% 1078103.

ut+' -. and Sa#ir' .". (2011! 4lo&al 9u#an "apital% *ntegrating Education and

opulation. Science. ///(602!% 37852.

:E") (201! Education at a 4lance.

arr' ,ick (201! -$o goes to university; T$e c$anging profile of our students. The

Conversation. https://theconversation.co/)ho!%oes!to!universit-!the!chan%in%!

profile!of!our!students!40"


3/66

T$e


4/66

Benefits of -orkforce

lanning (ynes 200! 1! *#proves align#ent of workforce wit$ strategic

o&>ectives.

2! Aids anticipation of needs for replace#ent staff and

succession planning. /! rovides pro>ections of workforce to assist &udgeting

process.

! En$ances efficiency of recruit#ent planning and

resourcing.

! *nfor#s need for training' develop#ent' careercounselling and productivity en$ance#ent.

6! "an infor# #aintenance or i#prove#ent of workforce

diversity (gender &alance' cultural and linguistic diversity

etc.!


5/66

Education and -orkforce

lanning -orkforce planning involves assessing?

rospective loss of e@isting staff

rospective need for recruits

-ill t$e pool of suita&ly ualified people &e adeuate

to provide sufficient new recruits;

,eed to analyse pat$ways into occupations' including

pipelineC of future nu#&ers wit$ necessary

educational ualifications and skills for recruit#ent into

particular occupation(s!.


6/66

ipeline Analysis

ipeline analysis D analysis of pat$ways into

occupationposition.


7/66

ro>ecting ,u#&ers "o#pleting

EducationTraining ipelines

,eed for co$ortpipline perspective.

ro>ections use data on%

,u#&ers currently at different stages of progress t$roug$

pipeline

Assu#ptions a&out proportions of t$ose at different stages of

progress w$o will co#plete (successfully! t years later (for

various t!

Assu#ptions a&out future nu#&ers of co##ence#ents into

pipeline.

Assu#ptions #ay &e for#ulated using a co#&ination of t$estatistical' >udge#ental and policy8related #et$ods descri&ed in

-eek 6.


8/66

E@a#ple 1

,S- State Rail

Staff include drivers' guards' signallers and station staff

)rivers are (#ostly! developed &y training ot$er ,S-State Rail Staff'

)evelop#ent and training ()river Trainees$ip rogra#!

pipeline for drivers?

"usto#er service duties F Signalling duties (3 #ont$s!'

4uard duties (12 #ont$s service!

)riving sc$ool (6 #ont$s!

(10 #ont$s of additional support provided to new

drivers!


9/66

E@a#ple

T$e pro>ected need for new drivers on 1/2017 is 15'

and 5G of new entrants to t$e )river Trainees$ip

rogra# co#plete t$e progra#' $ow #any will need to

co##ence t$e progra# on 11201;

Solution

ro>ected nu#&er of co##ence#ents H 150.5 H 20.


10/66

"ase Study 1 in -orkforce lanning%

u&lic Sc$ool Teac$ers in ,S-

or sources of supply of teac$ers%

1! teac$er education graduates

2! approved teac$ers on e#ploy#ent list


11/66

E@a#ple 2. (,S- re#iers

)epart#ent 200/ and )epart#ent of

Education and "o##unities 201!

,S- )epart#ent of Education and

Training ()ET!

Supply pipeline of teac$ers%

1. ,ew university graduates

D pro>ections fro# co##ence#ent data in

teac$ing progra#s at ,S- universities

2. Teac$ers on )ET e#ploy#ent data&ase


12/66


13/66

E@a#ple 2

T$e ta&le opposite s$ows t$eassu#ed percentages of co##encing

Bac$elor of Education specialising in

#at$e#atics w$o will graduate (wit$

t$is ualification! &y t$e nu#&ers of

years &etween co##ence#ent and

graduation. *f t$e annual nu#&ers of new

co##ence#ents are%

/00 at start of 201 acade#ic year'

/0 at start of 2016'

and 00 per year for reac$ year fro#

2017 onwards'

ro>ect t$e nu#&er graduating fro#

Bac$elor of Education degrees and

specialising in #at$e#atics at t$e

end of 2015.

Completed Years

of Study BetweenCommencementand Graduation

Percentage of

CommencingStudents (%)

ess t$an / 0

/ 7

10

6F 0


14/66

Solution

ro>ected nu#&er of graduates at end 2015

H ,u#&er co##encing at start of 201 (or earlier! Percentagecompleting 6 years later/100

+ ,u#&er co##encing in 201 Percentage completing at end 5years of study (i.e. end 2019)/100

+,u#&er co##encing in 2016 Percentage completing after years/100

F ,u#&er co##encing in 2017 Percentage completing after !years/100

+ ,u#&er co##encing in 2013 Percentage after 2 years later/100" 0 + (!00 5/100) + (!50 10/100) + (00 #5/100) +0

" 0+ 15 + !5 + !00 +0

" !50.


15/66

Kuestion

9ow #any co##ence#ents would &e needed in 2017 to

produce /6 #at$e#atics education graduates in 2020'

if t$e nu#&ers of co##ence#ents in 201 and 2016 are

as per t$e previous e@a#ple;


16/66

E@a#ple /

T$e ta&le opposite s$ows t$e nu#&ersof students at t$e start of in different

Iears of a Bac$elor of Education

degree specialising in #at$e#atics in

201 and assu#ed percentages w$o

will graduate w$o will graduate (wit$

t$is ualification! &y t$e nu#&ers ofyears &etween 201 and graduation.

(,o students co##encing Iear 1 will

graduate &y 2017

ro>ect t$e nu#&er graduating fro#

Bac$elor of Education degrees andspecialising in #at$e#atics in 2017

Year Number Percent Epectedto Graduate in Years! "ime

1 2 /

2 20 0 30 10

/ 20 30 10 0 0 0 0 0

10 0 0 0 0


17/66

Solution

ro>ected graduates in 2017 H

,o co##encing Iear 2 in 201 $ of %ommencing &ear2 'o graduate 2 years later/100

+ ,o co##encing Iear / in 201 $ of %ommencing&ear ! 'o graduate 2 years later/100

F ,o co##encing Iear in 201 $ of %ommencing&ear 1 'o graduate 2 years later/100

+ ,o co##encing Iear in 201 $ of %ommencing&ear 5 'o graduate 2 years later/100

"(250 0/100)+(20 10/100)+(0 5/100) + 0

" 200+ 2+2 " 226


18/66

Education in Australia

Two #ain approac$es

articipation D i.e. current education

Attain#ent D i.e. $ig$est education co#pleted

or )ata Sources

opulation census

Ad#inistrative syste#s eg Sc$ools census (enrol#entdata collected in early August!


19/66

Educational articipation

#ain areas of for#al education

Early c$ild$ood

Sc$ooling Locational Education and Training (LET!

9ig$er education


20/66

T$e Sc$ooling Structure in

Australia Runs fro# re8Iear 1 to Iear 12

4enerally full8ti#e sc$ooling is #andatory &etween age

6 and co#pletion of Iear 10.

=ull8ti#e sc$ooling' training or e#ploy#ent #andatory

until age 17.

=ull8ti#e education H 2F $ours per week.

"lassified as govern#ent and non8govern#ent ("at$olic

plus *ndependent! So#e differences &etween states in w$et$er Iear 7 is

last year of pri#ary or first of secondary.


21/66

Trend for A&solute Annual ,u#&er of

Birt$s in Australia 136082011


22/66

AustraliaMs Sc$ool Age

4roups% 156082011

0

200000

00000

600000

300000

1000000

1200000

100000

1600000

to 5

10 to 1

1 to 15

Year

Number


23/66

ro>ected ,u#&ers in Sc$ool

Age 4roups% ABS Series B

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

2000000

5 to 9

10 to 14

15 to 19

Year

Projected

No.


24/66

Composition of School

Students by Sector 2014Sector % of 2014

TotalAverageAnnual %Growth2006 to

2014

Government 65.1 0.

!on"Government

#4.9 1.

C$tholic 20.5 1.4

%ndependent 14.# 2.2

Source& '(S Schools'ustr$li$


25/66

)istribution of *rim$ry $ndSecond$ry Students by Sector&

'ustr$li$ 2014

Pr!ar" Secondar"

Government 69.1 59.5

!on"Government #0.9 40.5

C$tholic 19.1 22.5

%ndependent 11.8 18.0

Source& '(S Schools 'ustr$li$


26/66

+e$sures

School *$rticip$tion ,$te for '-e / !umber of schoolstudents $-ed !umber in popul$tion $-ed 3 100

'pp$rent *ro-ression ,$te '*, for school cohort frome$r to e$r 1 / i.e. !umber in School e$r 1 $ttime 1 !umber in e$r $t 0 3 100

'pp$rent ,etention ,$te ',, for school cohort from e$r to e$r t / !umber in school cohort $t t !umber incohort $t 0 3 100

i.e. !umber in e$r t $t t !umber in e$r $t 0 3 100

- ',, for e$r to e$r 12 / !o in e$r 12 in 2012!o ine$r in 200 3 100

Student to St$7 r$tio / !umber of students!umberof te$chin- st$7


27/66

School *$rticip$tion ,$tes&

'ustr$li$ 2014

15 16 1 18 190

10

20

#0

40

50

60

0

80

90

100

+$les em$les

'-e

:


28/66

e$r 8"e$r 12 'pp$rent,etention ,$tes& 'ustr$li$ 2014

A## to Year 12 $%

*ersons 8#.6

+$les 80.0

em$les 8.4

'S% 59.4

Source& '(S 2015


29/66

e$r 8 to 12 'pp$rent ,etention,$tes by Sector& 'ustr$li$ 196"

2014

196819#198198#1988199#1998200#2008201#0

20

40

60

80

100

120

'll

Government

C$tholic

%ndependent

Year

A## $%


30/66

'ustr$li$n Schools e$r 8 to 12 ,etention 1969 to 2010

11115

#0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

23.7

8283

31.1

72.573.2

Retention Rates of Full-Time Students

From Year 7/8 to Year 12 in Australian Schools1969 to 2010

Female

s

Year

Retention


31/66

;oc$tion$l $nd

duc$tion$l r$inin- ; 1.8 million ; students in 2010

4:


32/66

'-e"Se )istribution of ;

Students& 'ustr$li$ 2010

15"19

20"24

25"29

#0"#4

#5"#9

40"44

45"49

50"54

55"59

60

20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15

+$le

em$le


33/66

=e$din- ields of Study&

; Students 2010&eld of Stud" % of 2010 Total % &e!ale

+$n$-ement $ndCommerce

20 65

n-ineerin- $nd,el$tedechnolo-ies

1 9

Society $ndCulture

11 4

ood> ?ospit$lity$nd *erson$lServices

10 62

'rchitecture $nd(uildin-

8

?e$lth 5 65

Source& '(S 2012 e$r (oo@ of 'ustr$li$


34/66

'pprenticeships

)eAnition B 'n $pprenticeship is


35/66

!umbers of

'pprenticeships& 'ustr$li$1985"2014

0.0

100.0

200.0

#00.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

r$de !on"r$de

ot$l 'pprenticeships

e$r

000s


36/66

Dutcomes of 'pprenticeshipsCommenced in 2011 +$rch 2015

'ccu(aton )o!(leton #ate

$%

Attrton #ate

$%

)ontnung or Not*nown

$%

Engineering, ICT & science technicians 57.4 34.8 7.8

!t"m"ti#e & engineering tra$es %"rers 32.9 45.5 21.6

C"nstr!cti"n tra$es %"rers 26.9 54.9 18.2

Electr"techn"l"g' & telec"mm!nicati"ns tra$es %"rers 24.5 42.3 33.2

F""$ tra$es %"rers 28.1 64.7 7.2(ille$ animal & h"rtic!lt!ral %"rers 42.3 46.9 10.8

)ther technicians & tra$es %"rers 46.9 45.3 7.8*air$ressers 33.0 62.0 5.0

+rinting tra$es %"rers 54.6 33.2 12.2

Tetile, cl"thing & -""t%ear tra$es %"rers 42.6 44.5 12.9""$ tra$es %"rers 23.9 56.8 19.3ll 49.0 41.1 9.9


37/66

Eor@",el$ted r$inin-

In 2009 25/ "- %"rers !n$ert"" %"r

relate$ training


38/66

?i-her duc$tion

St$tistics& )eAnitions Commencements B !umber of ne< course enrolments.

nrolments B number of course enrolments includescontinuin- students


39/66

?i-her duc$tion

St$tistics&+e$sures !umber of student enrolments

B $t $ time or over $ p$rticul$r p$rt of $ ye$r1>16>000 for 'ustr$li$ for Arst h$lf 2014

Dr

B b$sed on study $t $ny time in c$lend$r ye$r1>##>000 for 'ustr$li$ in 2014

?e$dcount or


40/66

?i-her duc$tion in

'ustr$li$ 2014 1>##>000 hi-her educ$tion enrolments $t $ny time in

2014.

92.0: $t public universities.

0.8: full"time $nd 29.2: p$rt"time 69.#: under-r$du$te> 1.6: +$sterHs post-r$du$te> 4.1

*h) 8.9: other

4.: domestic $nd 25.#: intern$tion$l.

55.4: em$le

i.e. Se r$tio for $ll students / 80 m$les per 100 fem$les. ,epresent$tion of students from poorer $re$s> %ndi-enous

'ustr$li$ns $nd Christi$ns for sm$ller percent$-es ofhi-her educ$tion students th$n of tot$l popul$tion.


41/66

ot$l !umbers of ?i-her duc$tionStudents& 'ustr$li$ 200#"2014

0

200>000

400>000

600>000

800>000

1>000>000

1>200>000

1>400>000

1>600>000

e$r

ot$l !umber


42/66

!umbers of Inder-r$du$te $nd*ost-r$du$te Students& 'ustr$li$

200#"14

0

100>000

200>000

#00>000

400>000

500>000

600>000

00>000

800>000

900>000

1>000>000

)octor$te by,ese$rch

+$sterJs byCourse


43/66

*ercent$-es of 'll Students inInder-r$du$te $nd *ost-r$du$te

Courses& 'ustr$li$ 200#"2014

200# 2004 2005 2006 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201# 20140

10

20

#0

40

50

60

0

80

: Inder-r$du$te : *ost-r$du$te

e$r

:


44/66

*ercent$-es of Students ull"ime$nd *$rt"ime& 'ustr$li$ 200#"14

200# 2004 2005 2006 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201# 20140

10

20

#0

40

50

60

0

80

ull"ime *$rt"ime

e$r

:


45/66

*ercent$-es Studyin- %ntern$lly$nd tern$lly& 'ustr$li$n

Students 200#"14

200# 2004 2005 2006 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201# 20140

10

20

#0

40

50

60

0

80

90

%ntern$l tern$l +ultimod$l

e$r

:


46/66

!umbers of ?i-her duc$tion

Students& 'ustr$li$ 200#"2014

200# 2004 2005 2006 200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201# 20140

200>000

400>000

600>000

800>000

1>000>000

1>200>000

1>400>000

1>600>000

'll Students )omestic %ntern$tion$l

e$r

!o.


47/66

*ercent$-e of Students


48/66

Se ,$tio of ?i-her duc$tionStudents& 'ustr$li$ 200#"2014

6.0

.0

8.0

9.0

80.0

81.0

82.0

8#.0

84.0

85.0

e$r

+$les per 100 em$lese


49/66

=e$din- ields of Study&

'ustr$li$ 200#"2014

0

50>000

100>000

150>000

200>000

250>000

#00>000

#50>000

400>000

!$tur$l $nd *hysic$lSciences

%nform$tion echnolo-y

n-ineerin- $nd,el$ted echnolo-ies

?e$lth

duc$tion

+$n$-ement $nd

CommerceSociety $nd Culture

Cre$tive 'rts

e$r

!o.


50/66

Se ,$tio by ield of Study& 'll *ost SchoolKu$liAc$tion Students 'ustr$li$ 2011

Fiel$ Se+ #ato

at!ral an$ h'sical sciences 94.9

In-"rmati"n techn"l"g' 463.6

Engineering an$ relate$ techn"l"gies 1121.1

rchitect!re an$ !il$ing 666.7gric!lt!re, en#ir"nmental an$ relate$ st!$ies 115.8

*ealth 44.5

E$!cati"n 32.3

anagement an$ c"mmerce 96.0

("ciet' an$ c!lt!re 52.6

Creati#e arts 65.2

F""$, h"sitalit' an$ ers"nal ser#ices 77.1

("!rce ( 2011 E$!cati"n an$ "r


51/66

!umber of Course Completions byield of Study& 'ustr$li$ 1999"2010

0

20>000

40>000

60>000

80>000

100>000

120>000

!$tur$l $nd *hysic$l Sciences

%nform$tion echnolo-y

n-ineerin- $nd ,el$tedechnolo-ies

'rchitecture $nd (uildin-

'-riculture> nvironment$l $nd,el$ted Studies

?e$lth

duc$tion

+$n$-ement $nd CommerceSociety $nd Culture

Cre$tive 'rts

Year

Nu!,er


52/66

*ercent$-e of Completions in ieldEhich 're (y %ntern$tion$l

Students& 'ustr$li$ 1999"2010

0

10

20

#0

40

50

60

0

80

!$tur$l $nd *hysic$l

Sciences

%nform$tionechnolo-y

n-ineerin- $nd

,el$ted echnolo-ies

'rchitecture $nd

(uildin-

?e$lth

duc$tion

+$n$-ement $nd

Commerce

Society $nd Culture

Cre$tive 'rts

Year

%-nternatonal


53/66

*ercent$-e of Students from =o


54/66

Study $nd Eor@ Combin$tion&'ustr$li$n erti$ry Students 2011

a,our &orceStatu/

% of Student/

ull"time

employed

19.8

*$rt"timemployed

#8.5

mployed '


55/66

duc$tion$l *$rticip$tion by 15to 64 e$r Dlds& 'ustr$li$ 2010

11 2024 264

School 52.0 0.1 0.0

erti$ry 26.5 40.4 8.5

ull"time 19.5 29.# 2.6

*$rt"time .1 11.1 5.9

ot$l 'ttendin- 8.6 40.6 8.5

Source& '(S e$rboo@ of

'ustr$li$ 2012


56/66

%ntern$tion$l ?i-her duc$tionStudent +ovements Eorld


57/66

*$rticip$tion in duc$tion for '-es5"14 $nd 15"19& Selected Countries

2012

)ountre/ 14 $% 11 $%

'ustr$li$ 100 8

Germ$ny 99 90

%t$ly 99 81

IM 98 8

IS' 9 81

(r$Fil 95 8

%ndi$ 80 !'%ndonesi$ 8 1

,ussi$ 9# 8#

Source& DC) 2014


58/66

%ntern$tion$l *$tterns ofduc$tion$l 'tt$inment DC)

2014 %ncre$sin- percent$-e


59/66

duc$tion$l 'tt$inment of'ustr$li$Hs *opul$tion& %ntern$tion$l

*erspective

Age % 3th achelor/ or A,ove

25"#4 e$r Dlds 25"64 e$r olds

IS' #2 #2

More$ #5 26

'ustr$li$ #2 26

C$n$d$ #0 25

!e< e$l$nd #4 25

IM #1 24'll DC) 2 21

r$nce 24 16

Germ$ny 1 16

%t$ly 20 14

Source& '(S e$rboo@ of 'ustr$li$ 2012


60/66

duc$tion$l 'tt$inment of'ustr$li$Hs *opul$tion by '-e 2011

Age % 3thachelor/ or

A,ove

% wth An"Po/tSchool5ualcaton

15"24 .9 28.225"#4 #5.1 69.4

#5"44 29.9 6.8

45"54 2#.6 61.1

55"64 21.1 55.9

Source& '(S e$rboo@ of 'ustr$li$2012


61/66

$ctors '7ectin- *opul$tionduc$tion$l 'tt$inment

?istoric$l p$tterns of domesticeduc$tion$l $tt$inment


62/66

Fi!" 1 A!e and education #$ramids for %hina in 1970& 2000& and 20'0"

( )ut*& S +% Science 2011,'''.87-.92

+!lishe$ ' (


63/66

duc$tion$l 'tt$inment& SouthMore$ 190 $nd 2000

Fi! 2 (orld #o#ulation $ leel of educational attainment #roected to 20.0 on the asis of


64/66

Fi!" 2 (orld #o#ulation $ leel of educational attainment #roected to 20.0 on the asis of

four different education scenarios"

( )ut*& S +% Science 2011,'''.87-.92

+!lishe$ ' (


65/66

Mey

C( B const$nt enrolment numbers.

C, B const$nt enrolment r$te. Ch$n-e due todi7erences in youn-er $nd older cohorts.

G Glob$l educ$tion trend. Continuin- incre$ses ineduc$tion r$tes $ccordin- to continu$tion ofhistoric$l trend.

B $st tr$c@. %ncre$sed r$tes of improvement.Comp$r$ble to historic$l r$tes of improvement in

South More$ $nd Sin-$pore

!( di7erent proected popul$tions bec$useeduc$tion $7ects fertility mort$lity


66/66

Conclusion

Documents

2015 Demography of Education.docx