BriefingThe European year for development:Demography and migration

Policy Department, Directorate-General for External Policies & European Parliamentary Research ServiceAuthor: Manuel MANRIQUE GILGraphics and statistics: Eulalia CLAROS27 August 2015 – PE 549.066 EN

If current trends continue, theworld will have 9.7 billioninhabitants in 2050, butpopulation growth will beunevenly distributed.

The 1994 Cairo InternationalConference on Populationand Development was amilestone that focused on thewell-being of individuals,rather than numerical targets.

There has been progresspromoting human rights,education, gender equality,sexual and reproductivehealth, and reproductiverights, but rapid urbanisationand climate change representnew challenges.

The international communityhas recognised the need topromote regular, safe andorderly internationalmigration to harness thepotential benefits ofmigration.

Demography is an essential factor for development since the number, age andgeographic distribution of a country's population all determine the demand forits land, water, food and jobs. According to the UN World Population Prospects,the world's population (today 7.3 billion) will reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7billion in 2050 if current trends continue. However, growth will be unevenlydistributed: Africa will be the fastest-growing region through 2050, whileEurope's population is expected to decline after 2020. More than half of theglobal population increase projected through 2050 will occur in only ninecountries – India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia,Tanzania, USA, Indonesia and Uganda.

The relationship between population and development is hugely important, aswell as hugely sensitive. The 1994 Cairo International Conference on Populationand Development (ICPD) and its Programme of Action, which was adopted byconsensus by 179 governments, represented a milestone in its agreement thatthe well-being of individuals, rather than numerical population targets, shouldbe the goal of the global population agenda. The Programme focuses onhuman rights, education, gender equality, sexual and reproductive health, andreproductive rights. In 2014 a UN report noted the progress made since theICPD was adopted, as countries have integrated population issues into theirnational development strategies; this has led to reductions in mortality ratesand increases in primary school completion rates, cooperation on migrationissues and family planning efforts. Yet progress has been 'unequal andfragmented', hampered by new challenges. Discrimination and inequalitieslimit access to education and sexual and reproductive health services; genderequality has yet to be achieved. Rapid urbanisation, climate change and vastforced displacements are pressing challenges.

The world has also come to recognise the growth and complexity ofinternational migration, with many calling for the protection of migrants' rights,irrespective of their legal status. The need to promote regular, safe and orderlyinternational migration to harness the potential benefits of migration forindividuals, their families and their countries of origin and destination has beenhighlighted by the High Level Dialogue on International Migration andDevelopment – organised by the UN Secretary General in 2006 and 2013– andby the informal intergovernmental Global Forum on Migration andDevelopment. These fora recognise a complex 'migration-development nexus',which diverges significantly from the widespread view of development as ameans to reduce – or even eliminate – migration.

The assumption that development will reduce migration is not supported byresearch; whilst development can help mitigate some of the causes of forcedmigration (such as conflict), empirical evidence supports a 'mobility transitiontheory', according to which emigration rises with economic development

The European year for development: Demography and migration

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Latin America & the Caribbean

0

200

400

600

800

2050202520152005

Europe

0

200

400

600

800

2050202520152005

Oceania

0102030405060

2050202520152005

Northern America

0100200300400500

2050202520152005

Asia

0100020003000400050006000

2050202520152005

Africa

0500

10001500200025003000

2050202520152005

Lebanon: 21Jordan: 9Nauru: 4Chad: 3

Djibouti: 2South Sudan: 2

Turkey: 2Mauritania: 2

Sweden: 1Malta: 1

Iran: 1Kenya: 1

Congo: 1Cameroon: 1

Montenegro: 1Uganda: 1

Yemen: 1Afghanistan: 1

Norway: 1Liberia: 1

Data sources: UN 2015 WPP, UNHCR Global Trends 2014 , UN International Migration

Refugees as % of population by the end of 2014

UN 2015 world population projections

Immigration and emigration in 2013

Palestine: 22Western Sahara : 21Syria: 21Somalia: 11Central African R. : 9Afghanistan: 8Eritrea: 7South Sudan: 5Bhutan: 3Sudan: 2S.Vincent & G.: 2Niue: 1Iraq: 1Croatia: 1Myanmar: 1Mauritania: 1Mali: 1Colombia: 1Rwanda: 1D.R. Congo: 1

Refugees as % of host country populationby the end of 2014

Population (in millions) Population without migration (in millions)

Less than 1% Between 1% and 5%Between 5% and 15%Between 15% and 50%More than 50%

Less than 3% Between 3% and 7%Between 7% and 10%Between 10% and 30%More than 30%

Immigrants as % of resident population Emigrants as % of resident population

The European year for development: Demography and migration

DisclaimerThe content of this document is the sole responsibility of the author and any opinions expressed therein do not necessarilyrepresent the official position of the European Parliament. It is addressed to the Members and staff of the EP for theirparliamentary work. Reproduction and translation for non-commercial purposes are authorised, provided the source isacknowledged and the European Parliament is given prior notice and sent a copy.

This document can be downloaded from the European Parliament's online database, Think Tank.(print) ISBN: 978-92-823-7888-5 Catalogue number: QA-AP-15-009-EN-C DOI:10.2861/670545 ISSN: 2443-4957(online) ISBN: 978-92-823-7889-2 Catalogue number: QA-AP-15-009-EN-N DOI:10.2861/625079 ISSN: 2443-4965

© European Union, 2015

Contrary to widespread views,emigration rates rise witheconomic development untilcountries reach an uppermiddle income status.

The role migration plays inspurring development shouldbe more widely recognised.

Human mobility will beintegrated in the post-2015development agenda, and theSustainable DevelopmentGoals will include migration-related targets.

The EU is addressing themigration-developmentnexus in its Global Approachto Migration and Mobility,which is implementedthrough policy dialogues andcooperation projects in thirdcountries.

The European Parliament hasinsisted that the rights ofmigrants – particularlywomen – be part of the post-2015 agenda.

until countries reach an upper middle income country status (approximatelyUSD 7 000-8 000 per capita), at which points it begins to decrease. For thosewho do migrate, their destination is not usually – as many assume – developedcountries; in reality, there are slightly more migrants from developing countriesliving in the 'global south' (82.3 million) than in the 'global north' (81.9 million).For refugees, the ratio is more skewed: 86 % of refugees are hosted bydeveloping countries.

Correcting such misconceptions requires recognising the positive role ofmigration and integrating human mobility in the global developmentframework. This is being done for the first time in the post-2015 agenda and theproposed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which include migration-related targets such as 'facilitat[ing] orderly, safe, regular and responsiblemigration and mobility of people, including through the implementation ofplanned and well-managed policies'; reducing the transaction costs of migrantsremittances to less than 3 % (remittances to developing countries wereestimated at USD 435 billion in 2014 – more than three times officialdevelopment aid); protecting migrant workers' rights (particularly those ofmigrant women); and increasing the availability of disaggregated data,including by migratory status, to improve our understanding of migrationdynamics and the situation of migrants.

The EU has recognised that well-managed migration spurs development andshould be included in the post-2015 agenda (Foreign Affairs Council, December2014). The Union has also adapted its own policies, notably through the GlobalApproach to Migration and Mobility (GAMM), the overarching framework of theEU's external migration and asylum policy. The GAMM is implemented throughbilateral policy dialogues and operational cooperation (including MobilityPartnerships), regional dialogues and capacity building projects. In 2012 and2013 the Commission devoted over EUR 200 million to more than 90 migration-related projects in the developing world. The EU also has a dedicated budgetfor migration and asylum within the Development Cooperation Instrument thatwill provide EUR 357 million in 2014-2020 to maximise the development impactof people’s mobility and to promote migration governance and themanagement of migratory flows, notably in south-south migration.

The European Parliament has spoken out on the migration-development nexus,including in its wide-ranging resolution on development and migration(2005/2244), which addresses integrating migration in EU development policy,dialogue with third countries, the role of remittances and diasporas, 'braindrain', circular migration and other issues. The Parliament has also called forensuring that migrants' rights, particularly women's, be protected by the post-2015 development framework (2014/2143). A strategic report on 'the situationin the Mediterranean and need for a holistic EU approach to migration'(2015/2095) is also currently being drafted.