2011 07 19 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

8/6/2019 2011 07 19 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

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MIG BANK 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY L-TERMMULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/POSITION ENTRYLEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 2 1.4420 1.3660/1.3410 (Entered on 06/07/2011) 1.4305GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Awaiting Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.8330 0.8200/0.8080/0.7800 0.8400USD/CAD Await Trade Setup (neutral).AUD/USD Sell Stop 3 1.0526 1.0390/1.0200/0.9700 1.0730GBP/JPY SHORT 2 128.00 124.65/122.36 (Entered on 14/07/2011) 128.20EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 114.70EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005EUR/CHF Possibly looking to sell again.GOLD Sell Stop 3 1590 1560/1540/1480 1615SILVER Sell Stop 3 39.2800 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000 41.5500

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT19 July, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry

pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis

published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.


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Bullish engulfing targets key zone between 1.4282-1.4325.

EUR/USD triggered a bullish engulfing today that targets key resistancezone between 1.4282-1.4325 (14th July high/61.8/66% level). We remain

negative, expecting current upside probes to fail into the latter zone.

Our short position continues to favour a resumption of the downsidepattern breakout, offering an accelerated impulsive (wave 3) into

1.3700/1.3659 (2 yr uptrend/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 rise), thereafter squeezing

further conservative trend-followers into our initial objective at 1.3370.

A sustained close above 1.4325 would trigger a move into 1.4405/20. Onlyabove here offers meaningful upside recovery into 1.4578 (05th July peak).

Inversely, the US dollar index still needs to hold above 76.36 (23rd Mayhigh), to confirm a multi-month base pattern for an extension into 77.01

and 78.03 (50%/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011 Decline), then 79.00 (objective).

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Short 2 at 1.4420, Objs: 1.3660/1.3410, Stop: 1.4305

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

32.8%(1.4148)

UPTREND(1.3705)

61.8%(1.3659)

50%(1.3903)

200 DMA(1.3913)

PSYCHOLOGICAL(1.5000)

WAVE OBJECTIVE(1.3370)

KEY POINT(1.4711/30)

EUR/USD (Daily 1.5 years)

BREAKOUTTRIGGERS WAVE 3INTO 1.3770/1.3410

13TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

9

+

-

STILLUNWINDING!

US$ INDEX(Weekly)(4 YEARS)

TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL 13

+27% +19%

TRIGGER

(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

NEXT STAGE RALLY

FALLINGWEDGE

PATTERN

MUST BREAKABOVE 76.36

13

US DOLLAR INDEX (Daily 2 years)

TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNALS

9

200-DMA(76.91)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


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Continues to probe the upside.

GBP/USD broke briefly under the 200 day moving average. However, asharp bout of strength has seen a return to the old triangular support, re-

testing it as resistance.

This return over the 200 day moving average returns us to the sidelinesawaiting the evolution of structure that can assist us in our directional view.

We also note that the 50 week moving average continues to contain theprice on the downside, so await resolution there too.

Price action in sterling suggests that, to a degree, it is being used as a safehaven during the period of uncertainty that has evolved in the Eurozone.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Unwinding from key level at 78.44/24.

USD/JPYs sharp bearish slide is currently unwinding from a key level at78.44/24 (78.6/78.6% Fib retracement-March upswing).

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are switching to a morecautious footing, watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially

new structural bull-cycle. Although keep in mind that a close beneath

76.25 would change our view.

To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close abovestrategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post

Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).


Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

TDST (81.15)

83.30

WAVE 5

MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN

1

NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!

(76.25)

84.50

USD/JPY (Daily

TDST (83.90)

1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKESHOCK!

CONFLUENCEZONE

WAVE 2

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

EXTREMERETRACEMENT

(78.44/24)

MONTHLY TD

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERN

ZONE (88.00)

EXHAUSTIONBUYSIGNAL

BREAKOUTTARGET

13


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Under wedge support required to complete pattern.

USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge.This follows the failure to gain momentum in recent trade after a minor

break over wedge resistance.

Yesterday saw a re-test of channel support. We continue to seek a breakunder this support ahead of a potential recovery.

With this in mind, we look for a rise towards the 0.8330 region where alower high may potentially form.

We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8330, Objs: 0.8200/0.8080/0.7800, Stop: 0.8400

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Holding a key support level 0.9555/45.

USD/CAD is attempting to unwind from oversold conditions, amidst keysupport near 0.9555/45. Corrective activity was originally triggered after

the rates expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-

0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).

Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by afailed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.

Indeed, the bulls must now recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swinghigh/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March

high) and 1.0000 (parity level). In the meantime, a resumption of the larger

downtrend appears possible.

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is continuing to accelerate lower having recentlybreached its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

In stark contrast, CHF/CAD has recovered well and is looking to retest its

2011 highs at 1.1887. Remember, this rate can be used a proxy for global

risk appetite and therefore reflects further unwinding in risk.


Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).

USD/CAD


USD/CAD daily and chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD(Weekly )

0.9059

TDBUYSIGNAL 13EXHAUSTION

FAILED

FALLINGWEDGE

CHANNEL

BREAKOUT

FROM

EXPANDINGPATTERN

INITIAL FAILURE

USD/CAD (Daily)

AT RESISTANCE

200-DMA

FALLINGWEDGE

PATTERN

KEY SUPPORT(0.9555/45)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

EUR/CAD(Daily)

200-DMA(1.3715)

61.8%(1.3379)

76.4%(1.3142)

38.2%(1474.69)

50%(1474.69)

61.8%(1474.69)

CHF/CAD (Daily)

TDSIGNAL

EXHAUSTIONSELL

13

200-DMA(1.0734)


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Weighed by exhaustion sell signal.

AUD/USDs reactive bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), is stillweighed down by a DeMark exhaustion signal last seen at the May peak.

Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator has also flaggedexhaustion sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime,

our downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), thereafter

unlocking extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205

and 0.9990.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

The Aussie dollar is also still weak against the Japanese yen, aftertriggering a daily reversal pattern. The bearish signal is now pushing back

lower into the multi-week triangle pattern. A confirmed downside breakout

would signal further risk aversion in the financial community.


Sell Stop 3: 1.0526, Obj: 1.0390, 1.0200, 0.9700, Stop: 1.0730

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

0.9706

KEY SUPPORTV-SHAPE

UPSIDE REVERSAL

0.9537

0.9804

1.0256

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

1.0200

13 TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

RALLY FROMKEY SUPPORT

UNDER PRESSURE

13?

200-DMA(1.0234)

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD

(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463

CONFIRMEDBREAKOUT61.8%

(80.42)

EXHAUSTION

SELL SIGNAL

ADDS TORISK

AVERSION

50%

(82.25)

38.2%(84.09)

AUD/JPY

(Daily)

13 TD

200-DMA(83.75)


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Further weakness anticipated near-term.

GBP/JPY consolidates within the confines of a daily falling channel that hasbeen developing over the last three months.

We continue to favour a return towards the support of the channel andthen potentially on towards 122.36.

A lower high is now in place at 130.85 for a continuation of near-termweakness.

Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, weexpect a return to this region and then a clear break under this support

ahead of a possible recovery.


Short 2 at 128.00, Objs: 124.65/122.36, Stop: 128.20

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Possible lower high in place at 112.94.

EUR/JPY has completed an extended recovery from the 2010 low at105.44 after reaching 123.33 and then failing to hold over 116.00.

Recent trade has seen a break under the platform near 113.42/50, whichalso constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average.

The shallow retrace that we have witnessed thus far may have left a lowerhigh at 112.94. In any case, the structure present since 117.90 warns of

the potential for a shallow retrace and a further extension lower backtowards 105.44.

If a break under 109.58 can be realised a substantial extension lower wouldthen be favoured to follow.

We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 weekmoving average. This turns the longer-term outlook negative again.

Consolidation in the hourly timeframe is favoured to resolve lower.


Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY


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Lower high sought for fresh weakness.

EUR/GBP has suffered in the same manner as other EUR crosses given thestresses experienced in the periphery bond markets.

With this in mind, the break higher that occurred at the beginning of themonth to 0.9084 may mark the end of the recovery structure seen since

0.8285, with a return to the 200 day moving average now favoured. This

currently lies near 0.8665.

It is thus our strategy to wait for a bounce higher to evolve for the creationof a lower high and the resumption of weakness.

A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-termbullish structure.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



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Bounces from 1.1374.

Stopped for profit on final short unit at 1.1655. Bearish under 1.1806. EUR/CHF had exhibited a number of bullish reversal signals in different

timeframes. All of these were negated with the push under 1.1806.

While under 1.1806, the downside continues to be vulnerable given near-term structure and events occurring in the periphery Eurozone markets.

We continue to favour a return towards 1.1374. The close link between movements in EUR/CHF and periphery spreads

versus bunds makes this pair a prime candidate for sharp moves as new

information regarding events in the region becomes available.

The break out of the hourly falling channel may indicate the potential for alarger recovery structure to form. Back over 1.1650 is required to

neutralise the outlook.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Possibly looking to re-sell.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



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Record highs, but mounting risk of a sharp correction.

Golds long-term uptrend remains strong as we continue to see renewedrecord highs into that all-important psychological glass ceiling at 1600.00.

A review of Gold in other currencies shows that it has also made new highsin Euro and South African rand terms, while still trading beneath resistance

against the Aussie dollar and holding within a range vs. the Swiss franc.

However, keep in mind that after 11-consecutive rising sessions, upsidemomentum has become VERY overbought and is developing another

DeMark exhaustion signal (with TD Risk level at 1615.85).

This is also taking place against the backdrop of a 12-year patternexhaustion which is illustrated on the weekly log chart.

We remain positive, but are watching for potential weakness over the nextfew days. Expect a sharp reversal into key support at 1577.57 (02nd May

peak) and 1558.25 (22nd June high).

Keep in mind that Golds COT liquidity indicator is also squeezed within arange and is likely to breakout soon. At this stage, the risk remains on the

downside, thereby unlocking over 1.5 years of sizeable gold long positions.


Sell Stop 3: 1590, Obj: 1560/1540/1480, Stop: 1615

GOLD


Gold daily, weekly chart and COT liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

Gold (Weekly)

PATTERNEXHAUSTION

200-DMA(1434.26)

TD RISK(1615.95)

PATTERN

OBJECTIVE

Gold in EUR

Gold in USD

Gold inAUD

Gold in ZAR

NEW HIGHS

NEW HIGHS

RANGE

RETEST

Gold inCHF

?

UNDER THREAT ONCESTRUCTURAL RANGE BREAKS

OVER 1.5 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONS

GOLD COTNet LargeSpeculationPositions


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Silver loses momentum into psychological level at 40.0000.

Silvers relief-rally is losing momentum into the psychological level at40.0000. There is a mounting risk this high-beta market exhibits weakness

along with several of its peers (notably gold) in the next few days.

We have initiated a sell stop order to hedge our downside concerns,favouring potential setbacks into 38.8475 26th May high), then 33.8416

(32.8% Fib), near the long-term 200-day MA at 33.0104.

Remember that key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bullmarket) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

Only a sustained close above 40.0000 would help extend the bullishrecovery further into our next target zone between 43.1136-43.8477.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


Sell Stop 3: 39.2800, Obj: 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000, Stop: 41.5500

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly and Gold/Silver Ratio chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

OVER BASE

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

30YEAR

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!TD

SIGNALSEXHAUSTION

SELL

UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

Silver (Daily) 13

200 MA(32.9235)

38.2%(34.0015)

50%(29.1244)

50%(41.0513)

8477)TARGET

(43.1136/43.

LEGAL


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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be

reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

DIS

CLA

IMER

LEGALTERMS


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[email protected]

Howard FriendChief Market Strategist

[email protected] StrategistBjioy Kar

Tel.+41 32 722 81 00CH-2008 Neuchtel14, rte des Gouttes dOr

www.migbank.com

MIG [email protected]

[email protected] StrategistRon William

CONTACT
http://www.migbank.com/http://www.migbank.com/

Documents

2011 07 19 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+