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8/3/2019 2011 12 13 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MA
S-TERMMULTI-DAY
L-TERMMULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/POSITION
ENTRYLEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3280 1.3140/1.2990/1.2870 (Entered 12/12/2012) 1.3460
GBP/USD Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.
USD/CHF Buy limit 3 0.9335 0.9460/0.9630/0.9776 0.9250
USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade setup.
AUD/USD Sell Stop 3 1.0050 0.9950/0.9660/0.9380 1.0210
GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 123.00 122.00/121.00/120.00 124.00
EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.
EUR/GBP Sell at 0.8700 removed. Look to sell higher.
EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.2480 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973 1.2580
GOLD SHORT 3 1705 1605/1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2012) 1750
SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300
DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT13 December, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry
point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is
published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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2
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
Bears push into 1.3146 after rating warning fromMoody’s.
EUR/USD bears have continued to push lower, after a recent warning from
Moody’s which cited that it would review ratings for all European Union
countries. In price terms, bears need to break near-term support at 1.3146
(Oct swing low).
We have opened short position favouring extended downside scope. Our
cycle analysis suggests increased volatility over the next two weeks across
“risk” proxies, including the equity and commodity markets.
A close beneath 1.3146 will re-establish the larger downtrend from April and
target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low).
Meanwhile, resistance can be found at 1.3550 (02 Dec high), then 1.3610
and 1.3730. Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short-lived.
Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targets
its recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs
(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain
strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3280, Obj: 1.3140/1.2990/1.2870, Stop: 1.3460
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA (1.4074)
BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
UPTREND2 YEARS
EUR/USD (Daily)
BREAKOUT
ZONE (1.4000)
1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)
+
-
USD INDEX(4 YEARS)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10%SO FAR
EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
9 KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA(75.84)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
9 MONTHHIGH
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Range formed by a sequence of false breaks.
GBP/USD has formed a sequence of false breaks on the hourly chart. We
now await to see if the most recent push lower, to 1.5538, will see any follow
through. This sequence of lower lows and higher highs has formed a rangebound market for the majority of December.
Demand for sterling is likely to be affected by the movement in selected core
Euro-Zone sovereign markets. In particular we note that Italian 10 year
yields are trading close to 7.00%. Daily structure is also suggestive of a
return to test 7.00% and higher. A continuation of higher yields may see
Sterling being adopted as a safe haven again. This reasoning would likely
help to keep cable within its year long range.
With the above in mind, the region near 1.5400 may offer attractive levels toenter into medium-term long positions. Taking this approach will need to
see levels closer to 1.5400 for a well placed stop. The range bound trade of
the last few days is best avoided.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark™ Level).
USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark™ Level). There is an ever
growing probability of unfolding a third price retracement back to pre-
intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war recordlow beneath 75.35 (PINL).
Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying
pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
to call the market bottom.
This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move
would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.
The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a
major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
points to trigger into December this year, offering a sustained move above
our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.
Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal
Webinar: USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change
Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
82.00
83.30
USD/JPY
QUAKESHOCK!
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POSTG7
MOVE (I)HIGH
PIR II
80.24
POSTBOJ
MOVE (II)HIGH
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
POSTBOJ
MOVE (III)HIGH
PIR III
MONTHLYDEMARK™
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 – 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERNANTICIPATES
BREAKOUT(85-79)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Over 0.9331 opens up a return to 0.9776.
USD/CHF saw a break over 0.9331 yesterday. This warns of a larger swing
higher, back towards 0.9776. We now look to see if the region just above
0.9331 has the capacity to act as support for a further extension higher.
This pair is currently ignoring the early warning signs exhibited by the
continued rise in some core Euro-Zone government bond markets. If the
yield on 10 year Italian government bonds continues to rise towards 7.000%
and higher, there is scope for a degree of downside pressure to return to
USD/CHF. In the meantime, the above mentioned extension higher is
favoured.
Referencing Spanish and Italian government bonds back to their respective
levels prior to the six party central bank agreement, we note that most of thepositive after effects have worn off, with yields trading at 5.881% and
6.684% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the agreement. (These yields
were trading at 5.897% and 6.521% respectively at the same time
yesterday.)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 0.9335, Objs: 0.9460/0.9630/0.9776, Stop: 0.9250
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Bulls rebound above 1.0200.
USD/CAD is maintaining its sharp bullish rebound above 1.0200. We are
watching for further sustained price activity to open a buy trade setup.
A directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still needed to unlock the
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott wave cycle.
Only a sustained close beneath 1.0080 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks
into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9870 and 0.9726 (31st
Aug low).
EUR/CAD is unwinding mildly ahead of the base of an important multi-
month distribution pattern. A break beneath 1.3393-79 (19th
Sept low/61.8%
Fib), signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and would providesubstantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.
CHF/CAD, which serves as a proxy for “risk appetite”, remains weak
beneath its 200-day MA (which had provided support for most of the uptrend
since mid-2010). Key support now holds at 1.0893 (61.8% Fib retrace). A
break here would extend the sharp decline into 1.0332 (01st
March low) and
help confirm further unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680
OPENSLARGER
RECOVERY
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
USD/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA(0.9870)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50% (1.3570)
61.8% (1.3379)
200-DMA(1.3876)
REVERSALPATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
50% (1.1488)
61.8% (1.0893)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Sharp setbacks beneath 200-day MA at 1.0414.
AUD/USD has resumed its sharp setbacks beneath its 200-day MA which is
currently holding at 1.0414. This key level is likely to encourage further
downside scope over the multi-day-week horizon.
The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside
pressure on the rate’s multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand
dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-
day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day/week horizon.
The Aussie dollar pairing back its mild recovery against the Japanese yen,
while holding above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern. Watch
for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further
unwinding of global risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell stop 3: 1.0050, Obj: 0.9950/0.9660/0.9380, Stop: 1.0210.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD (Weekly)
38.2% (0.9144)
50% (0.8546)
61.8% (0.7947)
3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURALLEVEL
KEYZONE
AUD/USD(1 YEAR)
DEMARK™ SELL
SIGNALS
200-DMA1.0405
REVERSINGINTO
200-DMA
AUD/NZD(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100
200-DMA
(82.47)
13
38.2% (76.70)
61.8% (68.47)
50% (72.58)
AUD/JPY(Daily)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
RESUMPTION OFBREAKDOWN
ADDS TORISK AVERSION
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Fails to maintain break lower in the hourly timeframe.
GBP/JPY continues to trade in a similar manner to GBP/USD. Yesterday’s
downside test of the month long range failed, returning to trade within the
range. However, the rise seen since 116.84 is deemed corrective in nature
suggesting scope for a return to 119.38 and then 116.84 in the near-term,
before a more lasting recovery.
As noted in prior reports, should this pair reach the 123.00 level, a degree of
resistance would be anticipated. In the meantime, we remain wary of the
short-term range bound environment but are re-instating the sell strategy at
123.00.
If the recent range bound trade is resolved to the downside, then the 120.00
level should provide a degree of support, from where a short-term leg higher
would be favoured to develop.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 123.00, Objs: 122.00/121.00/120.00, Stop: 124.00
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
Trend channel contains hourly weakness.
EUR/JPY is likely to see a period of volatile trade due to its clear association
with EUR/USD which is now approaching the key 1.3146 level. We are also
wary of the possibility of coordinated intervention to maintain the stability of
the Euro as a currency. This acts as a manipulation of the market, making
technical analytics harder.
The clash in structure that we have noted in previous reports remains
present, with the recent rise from 102.49 being deemed as corrective.
However, the larger 100.76 – 111.60 rise is suggestive of a further leg
higher back towards 111.60. Thus the directional clash in two timeframes is
ever present.
As mentioned above, if EUR/USD breaks under 1.3146 this will end the
rising phase seen since 2010 and would likely be associated with a fall back
down to 100.76 in EUR/JPY and potentially lower.
It is preferred to see if a sustained break can be achieved under 1.3146 in
EUR/USD, before committing to any directional bias.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Possible exhaustion pattern after break of trend-line support.
Sell strategy at 0.8700 removed. Negative bias remains.
EUR/GBP broke under 0.8486 yesterday. In doing so, a break under long-
term trend-line support from 0.8068 has been achieved. However, we notethat in the hourly and 5 minute timeframes, there are initial signs of
exhaustion. It is anticipated that these patterns may lead to a repeat
behaviour of this currency pair to exhibit a false break lower. Thus, although
we have removed the prior sell strategy, we still await a recovery higher
before participating in this market.
The message that we take away from the recent six party central bank
coordination is that there is a demand for US Dollars amongst European
banks. This fact is a warning sign and a clear weakness, suggesting scope
for a credit contractionary phase. We continue to expect a continuation of
rising yields in the Euro-Zone and it is within this environment that we see
the potential for Sterling to be perceived as a safe haven.
Another trigger for participation in this possible break lower would be a
lasting break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD, as this would likely have a knock
on effect in all EUR crosses. We also note the continued trade under the 50
week and 200 day moving averages.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell at 0.8700 removed. Look to sell higher.
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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11
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
Continues to trade within a tight range.
EUR/CHF saw an initial push higher above the 50 week moving average
which again failed close to 1.2500, adding a further lower high to the
sequence seen since the middle of October. Since reaching the 50 week
moving average earlier in the year, it has acted as a decent region of
resistance, warning that the larger down-trend may not be over. We will
maintain our sell limit strategy at 1.2480 for now, as this represents a decent
trade location during thin Christmas markets. However, we look to see if a
break under 1.2226 can be achieved.
1.2226 will be used as a filter. Under 1.2226 we will swap our current sell
limit strategy to a sell stop strategy at 1.2130, with objectives at
1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 and a stop at 1.2230.
A rising sovereign yield environment may now be returning within the Euro-
Zone, as discussed in other parts of this report. We look to see if Italian 10
year sovereign yields can return to the 7.000% handle. It is these kinds of
pressures that may assist a return to and break of 1.2123/31. This
represents the real goal of a lasting breakdown in the recent range bound
structure.
The 1.2000 level is the only level that the SNB has suggested they will
defend. There is thus likely to be a large cluster of stops under this level,
which if triggered, could herald a return to the 1.0075 level.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Sell limit 3 at 1.2480, Objs: 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973, Stop: 1.2580.
EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Bearish breakout from triangle pattern targets $1600.
Gold’s bearish breakout from a multi-month triangle pattern targets initial
support at $1600/17. This is likely to accelerate from inter-market weakness
across related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets.
Moreover, there is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we
confirm a weekly close beneath $1600/16 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing
low), which has not been breached in 3 years!
A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channel –floor).
Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would
ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1705, Obj: 1605, 1530, 1300, Stop: 1750
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!
DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OFGOLD’S OVERBOUGHT
CONDITIONS
$1800
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530
UPSIDE: 1760 / 1800
GOLD KEY LEVELS
$1532
DOUBLETOP
$1760
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
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Key support at $30.0000.
Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close
below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.
Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the
major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces
volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to
recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300
SILVER
Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2% (32.3135)
50% (26.9150)
61.8%
(21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ SELL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 70% FROM
OVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
Silver (Daily)
200 DMA(36.9204)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 13 December, 2011
www.migbank.com
Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,
including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK
makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions
expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes
financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be
made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no
guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the
content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
LEGALTERMS
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
13 December, 2011
www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]
MIG BANK
14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]