2011 07 26 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

8/6/2019 2011 07 26 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

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MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY L-TERMMULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/POSITION ENTRYLEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Awaiting Trade Setup 1.4580 or 1.4260.GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.6190 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550 1.6120USD/JPY Awaiting Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF See OCO trade on page.USD/CAD Await Trade Setup (neutral).AUD/USD Awaiting Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 114.70EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005EUR/CHF SHORT 3 1.1650 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200 1.1720GOLD Exited at 1615SILVER SHORT 3 39.2800 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000 41.5500

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT26 July, 2011

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry

pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis

published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com


2/15

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Initial breakout above Bermuda Triangle Pattern.

EUR/USD has extended its rebound and triggered an initial breakoutabove the major rates Bermuda triangle, where several false signals

have previously been exhibited.

As previously stated, only a sustained close above 1.4578-80 will lead to areassessment of our long standing bearish view, opening a potential

extended recovery into previous key resistance at 1.4711/30 plus.

Meanwhile, it will remain more of a (micro) short-term hit & runspeculative market environment until EUR-USD sustains meaningful

directional breakout through our low risk trigger levels at either 1.4580

(upside) or 1.4260-1.4060 (downside).

Inversely, the US dollar index is now holding steady around key support at73.50. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of defence), where a

potential oversold bounce could still develop.

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting Trade Setup 1.4580 or 1.4260.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

+

-

STILLUNWINDING!

US$ INDEX

(Weekly)(4 YEARS)

TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL 13

+27% +19%

TRIGGER

(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

FALLINGWEDGE

PATTERN

13

US DOLLAR INDEX

(Daily 2 years)

TDBUY

EXHAUSTIONSIGNALS

9

200-DMA(76.91)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


3/15

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Short-term structure remains bullish.

GBP/USD continues to be supported by the 50 week moving average afterbreaking out of a weekly rising channel earlier in the year.

Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested assupport.

We have also seen a failure in the daily timeframe to stay beneath the oldsupport of a triangular reversal pattern, weakening the case for the bears.

We look to see how the region near 1.6200 fares, in the event of acorrective phase developing, and now favour the formation of a higher low

in this region ahead of fresh swing higher.

Bigger picture, a larger trading range may be developing.


Buy limit 3 at 1.6190, Objs: 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550, Stop: 1.6120.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

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Breaking beneath extreme support at 78.24.

USD/JPY has weakened further and is now breaking beneath extremesupport at 78.44/24 (78.6/78.6% Fib retracement-March upswing).

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are more cautious,watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bull-

cycle. However, a close beneath 76.25 would change our view.

To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close abovestrategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post

Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).


Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

82.00

83.30

WAVE 5

MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN

1

NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!

(76.25)

USD/JPY (Daily

TDST (83.90)

1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKESHOCK!

CONFLUENCEZONE

WAVE 2

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

TESTINGEXTREME

RETRACEMENT

(78.44/24)

MONTHLY TDBUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERN

(88.00)

EXHAUSTION

BREAKOUTTARGET

ZONE

13


5/15

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Under wedge support required to complete pattern.

Sell recommendation revised again, see below. USD/CHF approaches the support of the multi-month falling wedge that

has been developing over the last seven months. We continue to expect

an eventual break under this support, ahead of a possible recovery higher.

A lower high is now potentially in place at 0.8278, with scope for a test ofwedge support and then a further break lower.

We also note that a push under the long-term wedge support is requiredto complete this ultimately bullish long term pattern.

A push over 0.8398 will end our short-term bearish bias. We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs. We are recommending an OCO (one cancels the other) trade:

1. Sell limit at 0.8100, Objs: 0.8000/0.7825/0.7650, Stop: 0.8200

2. Sell stop at 0.7997, Objs: 0.7897/0.7700/0.7600, Stop: 0.8097

Whichever order gets filled first will cancel the other.


See text above.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

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Bear resume lower and trigger new multi-year lows.

USD/CAD has resumed lower and now triggered new multi-year lows at0.9407. Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates

expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915

(38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).

Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective remains neutralised afterthe failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.

Indeed, the bulls must now recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swinghigh/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March

high) and 1.0000 (parity level).

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is continuing to accelerate lower having recentlybreached its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

In contrast, CHF/CAD is now developing volatile price swings within a

sideways trading range, having failied to retest its 2011 highs at 1.1887.

Moreover, the pair has also triggered two DeMark exhaustion signals

suggesting risk of further weakeness into support at 1.1193 (38.2% Fib).


Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).

USD/CAD


USD/CAD daily and chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD(Weekly )

0.9059

TDBUYSIGNAL

13

EXHAUSTION

FAILED

FALLINGWEDGE

CHANNEL

BREAKOUTFROM

EXPANDINGPATTERN

INITIAL FAILURE

USD/CAD (Daily)

AT RESISTANCE

MAJOR LOW(0.9446)

61.8%(1.3379)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

EUR/CAD(Daily)

200-DMA

(1.3715)

38.2%(1474.69)

50%(1474.69)

CHF

61.8%(1474.69)

/CAD (Daily)

TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

13

13


7/15

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Extending into major high at 1.1012.

AUD/USD rebound has extended above our DeMark TD Risk level at1.0935 and is now looking to capture 1.1012 (major high).

Meantime, support can be found at 1.0810 and 1.0443 (TDST line),thereafter unlocking extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then

1.0205 and 0.9990.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

The Aussie dollar is stabilising against the Japanese yen, above its multi-month pattern floor. Only a confirmed downside breakout would signal a

switch to risk aversion in the financial community.


Awaiting Trade Setup.

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

0.9706

KEY SUPPORTV-SHAPE

UPSIDE REVERSAL

0.9537

1.0256

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

1.0200

13 TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

13?

200-DMA(1.0234)

TD RISK1.0935

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD

(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463

38.2%(84.09)

POTENTIALBREAKOUTADDS TO

61.8%(80.42)

EXHAUSTION

SELL

RISKAVERSION

50%(82.25)

AUD/JPY

(Daily)13 TD

SIGNAL

200-DMA(83.75)


8/15

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Resolution of consolidation awaited.

GBP/JPY has thus far met resistance close to the prior swing low at 128.17.Failure to remain below this level on a daily closing basis will increase the

probability of a return to the resistance of the falling channel.

In the meantime, we remain biased to a return towards the support of theweekly channel and then potentially on towards 122.36.

Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, weexpect a return to this region and then a clear break under this support,

ahead of a possible recovery.

We now await a shorter-term setup, to assist us in the formulation of anexplicit trade recommendation and to this end await a breakout of the

hourly consolidation that has been developing over recent sessions.


Await fresh signal, with a bias to shorts.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

9


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A break under hourly trend-line support to weaken further.

EUR/JPY appears to be breaking down again after completing a recoveryphase following the peak at 123.33 and then subsequently failing to hold

over 116.00.

We combine this with the recent break under the platform near 113.42/50,which also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average.

The exhaustion pattern that we witnessed last Friday has led to a period ofweakness. We next seek a break under the hourly rising support off109.63, with a break under this structure weakening the outlook further.

If a push under 109.58 can be realised a substantial extension lower wouldthen be favoured to follow, potentially beyond 105.44.

We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 weekmoving average.

Failure to remain under 113.50 on a daily closing basis will warn of an endto weakness and a return to strength.


Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY


10/15

10


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Remains largely rangebound for now.

EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285,with the move lower from 0.9084 meeting 0.8705 thus far.

A return to the 200 day moving average is now favoured. This currentlylies near 0.8667.

We view the current bounce as being corrective in nature within theshorter-term timeframe and seek a lower high close to 0.8900, ahead of a

resumption of weakness. We seek a final swing higher in the shorter-term timeframe ahead of fresh

weakness, potentially leaving a false break higher out of the rising hourly

channel.

A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-termbullish structure.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



11/15

11


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Further weakness anticipated while under 1.1892.

EUR/CHF has potentially registered a lower high at 1.1892 last week. Yesterdays break under 1.1610 now warns of a resumption of weakness

with a return to 1.1374 now favoured.

The longer-term falling trend remains intact and while under 1.2080 wewould favour a continuation of this larger trend.

We note, in the absence of further stresses from the Eurozone periphery,that a larger recovery would then become likely due to the probableextreme short positioning in this market.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Short 3 at 1.1650, Objs: 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200, Stop: 1.1720.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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Resumption of uptrend needs to close above 1620-24.

Golds previous resumption of the uptrend still needs to close above 1620-24 in order to confirm sustainable extensions higher in line with the major

uptrend for extensions into the next key level at 1700.00.

We had prefered hedge for downside risks following the recentunprecedented explosive upside move, which triggered a confluence of

our exhaustion signals.

However, as previously stated, it was critical the market confirmed areversal beneath a filtered price/time trigger point. This downside trigger

level still holds at 1588/82.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity within theapex of the 12-year exhaustion pattern (illustrated on the weekly log chart),

which has also developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

Golds COT liquidity indicator (net long positions) remains squeezed withina tight range (as Gold continued to make push to record highs on lower

volume). At this stage, the risk remains for a downside breakout which

would unlock over 1.5 years of sizeable gold long positions.


Exited at 1615.

GOLD


Gold daily, weekly chart and COT liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


13/15

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Bullish revival MUST close above 40.0000.

Silvers bulish revival MUST sustain a daily close above 40.0000 in order toextend another potential recovery leg higher.

Such a positive scenario would help extend the bullish recovery further intoour next target zone between 43.1136-43.8477.

Meanwhile, neat-term support can be found at 39.1425. A break herewould trigger downside risk into 33.8416 (32.8% Fib), near the long-term

200-day MA at 33.3182.

Remember that key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bullmarket) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


SHORT 3: 39.2800, Obj: 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000, Stop: 41.5500

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly and Gold/Silver Ratio chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

OVER BASE

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

30YEAR

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!TD

SIGNALSEXHAUSTION

SELL

UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)

Silver (Daily) 13

38.2%(34.0015)

50%(29.1244)

200 MA(32.9235)

50%(41.0513)

LEGAL


14/15

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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be

reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

DIS

CLA

IMER

LEGALTERMS


15/15

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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected] [email protected]

Technical StrategistBjioy Kar

Tel.+41 32 722 81 00CH-2008 Neuchtel14, rte des Gouttes dOr

www.migbank.com

MIG [email protected]

[email protected] StrategistRon William

CONTACT
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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2011 07 26 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+