Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Forex broker MIG BANK presents the daily forex trading technical report.
Citation preview
MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
MARKET
S-TERM MULTI-DAY
L-TERM MULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/ POSITION
ENTRY LEVEL
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
GBP/USD Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.
USD/CHF Buy limit 3 0.8600 0.9000/0.9200/0.9316 0.8500
USD/CAD Buy Stop 3 1.0275 1.0660/1.0850/1.1110 1.0150
AUD/USD Sell Stop 3 1.0090 0.9930/0.9620/0.9380 1.0290
GBP/JPY Sell limit 3 123.15 121.60/118.50/116.50 124.40
EUR/JPY Sell limit 3 107.90 106.90/104.00/100.00 109.00
EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8870 0.8750/0.8580/0.8400 0.8970
EUR/CHF Await fresh signal.
GOLD SHORT 1 1805 1300 (Entered 12/09/2011) 1704
SILVER SHORT 3 31.8150 28.4300/26.0700/23.3400 33.0550
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
2
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Resistance at 1.3937 is holding pressure.
EUR/USD’s short-term recovery (worth almost 6%) remains under pressure
below resistance at 1.3937 (which has not been breached on a close basis).
Bears need to break 1.3653 (18th Oct swing low) and 1.3550 (50% Fib-04
th
Oct swing), to challenge that all-important psychological level at 1.3000 and
unlock further scope into 1.2860 (near 2011 low).
Key resistance remains at 1.3937 (15th Sept high), which is near the
previous breakout zone at 1.4000 and the long-term 200-day MA at 1.4092.
Only a confirmation above here will neutralise the status quo.
Inversely, the USD Index is continuing to retrace (from its recent 6-month
highs) and we expect support to hold at 75.80-55 for the next leg higher.
Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are temporarily unwinding from their
recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will
remain strong and help resume the USD’s bull-run from its historic oversold
extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”
MIG Bank US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
IMPULSIVE (WAVE 3) DECLINE TARGETS
1.3000 & 1.2870
TREND 2 YEARS (1.4030)
200-DMA (1.4092)
EUR/USD (Daily)
BIG LEVEL (1.4000)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE
FAILED
BREAKOUTS
9 KEY SUPPORT
(73.50-73.00)
13
USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.87)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS
BREAKOUT ZONE
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%, CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%
+
-
USD INDEX (4 YEARS)
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
+27% +19%
TRIGGER (15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
+10% SO FAR
UNWINDING FROM 3 STD ONE YEAR AVERAGE
EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS
3
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Under 1.5632 to would turn to bearish bias.
GBP/USD is settling above the 38.2% retrace of the 1.6747-1.5272 fall. A
sustained break under 1.5632 is now required to increase the probability of
a lasting lower high near this key retrace.
Strategy is still hampered by a lack of reliable structure, largely due to the
range bound nature of the market in the medium-term time frame. Should
this continue then a larger recovery phase, back towards the 200 day
moving average would come back into focus. Remaining neutral is deemed
best for now.
GBP/USD has already experienced a large devaluation versus the US
Dollar, therefore any further strengthening in the US Dollar may not see the
full participation of GBP/USD. Instead GBP/USD is favoured to remain
stronger then most.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await signal.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-day MA
4
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
USD/JPY still basing around its NEW all-time low.
USD/JPY maintains a confluence of DeMark™ exhaustion bullish signals,
after yet another new post WWII record low which was carved out at 75.82.
These reversal signals are also following the second post intervention
retracement in 2011, which is holding around a multi-week base pattern. It is
also worth noting that our volatility measures remain very low and continue
to favour a major breakout over the short-term horizon.
The medium/long-term view remains bullish, watching for a sustained move
above our initial upside trigger level at 77.68. This would offer a resumption
of the preferred new structural bull-cycle into the all-important psychological
level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ intervention II high).
Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term
technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark™ exhaustion signals, within
the ending diagonal pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
Only a sustained weekly close below 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of
the view and extend temporary weakness into 74.55.
Please select the link below to sign up for our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY. This will feature an update to our previous Special Report
USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change (Wednesday, November 02nd – 15:00-15:45 GMT).
- What do long-term cycles tell us about the future of USD-JPY? - How do event shocks and Central Bank Interventions impact the market? - Safe-Haven Flows: A wave of change. - High-Probability Trading Strategies.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
WAVE 5
83.30
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)
QUAKE SHOCK!
POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)
POST G7
MOVE HIGH
82.00
PIR II
80.24
POST BOJ
MOVE HIGH
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AFTER NEW POST WWII LOW (75.82)
MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly (2007 – 2011)
ENDING DIAGONAL
PATTERN BREAKOUT
TARGET (88-85)
5
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Lower high in place at 0.9083.
USD/CHF appears to have printed a lower high at 0.9083 following the
break under 0.8881 yesterday. While under 0.9123 a continuation of this
weakness is favoured.
It is also noted that the current trading region is close to the location of the
50 week moving average, at 0.8949. Thus, a continuation of weakness
would also warn of a breakdown of the recent recovery structure. However,
back under 0.7712 is required to change the long-term bullish bias.
The recent break lower also opens up the potential for a further extension
towards 0.8600, where a return to a bullish bias would become attractive
again.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 0.8600, Objs: 0.9000/0.9200/0.9316, Stop: 0.8500
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-day MA
6
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Holding around the psychological 1.0000 level.
USD/CAD is still holding around that all-important 1.0000 level
(psychological level and prior trading range).
Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to extend the
recovery higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high &
Congestion zone).
A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the
rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
Meanwhile, only a sustained close beneath 1.0000 will extend bearish
setbacks into next the support level at 0.9750.
Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large
multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June
swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.
CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1248,
following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).
The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy Stop 3: 1.0275, Objs:1.0660/1.0850/1.1110, Stop: 1.0150
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD
USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)
200-DMA
(0.9811)
USD/CAD (Weekly)
CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680
OPENS LARGER RECOVERY
DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL
REVERSAL PATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
200-DMA (1.1248)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
50% (1.3570)
61.8% (1.3379) 200-DMA
(1.3821)
7
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Trading above its 200-day MA at 1.0392.
AUD/USD’s bullish recovery has popped above its long-term 200-day MA
which is currently holding at 1.0392. Expect momentum to unwind back into
this area, for a return into the rate’s psychological level at 1.0000.
In terms of the big picture,
AUD/USD’s multi-year uptrend remains under pressure since the previous
breakdown. The bears need to confirm beneath 0.9388 (04th Oct low &
structural level) to unlock a much larger decline into 0.9220 and 0.9144
(38.2% Fib-2008 uptrend).
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.
The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.
The Aussie dollar has stabilised against the Japanese yen, after failing into
resistance at 79.92. Watch for a resumption of the major downtrend from
spring 2011. Strong downside scope will signal further unwinding of global
risk appetite.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.0090, Objs: 0.9930/0.9620/0.9380, Stop: 1.0290
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-DMA CAPS BEAR MKT
AUD/NZD (Daily)
KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100
200- DMA
(83.15)
13
38.2% (76.70)
61.8% (68.47)
50% (72.58)
AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
BREAKDOWN ADDS TO
RISK AVERSION
KEY ZONE
AUD/USD (1 YEAR)
(1.0935)
TD RISK (1.1102)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS
200-DMA (1.0392)
AUD/USD (Weekly)
38.2% (0.9144)
50% (0.8546)
61.8% (0.7947)
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER
PRESSURE
STRUCTURAL LEVEL
8
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Range bound short-term, favouring a return to 122.65.
GBP/JPY saw a minor break under 120.34 which failed to hold, reaching
120.00. This is suggestive of the potential for a further recovery leg higher
to test the region near 123.00.
The structure present since 116.84 is deemed corrective, with scope for a
final swing higher to complete this corrective phase. However, a sustained
push under the recent low at 120.00 will warn of resumption of weakness
back towards the floor near 117.00. However, an eventual return to
116.84/98 is expected, below which would open up an extension towards
115.00 immediately.
A sustained break over 123.31 is required to change the current bearish
bias. Should this take place a larger corrective phase higher would then be
anticipated.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 123.15, Objs: 121.60/118.50/116.50, Stop: 124.40
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
200-day MA
9
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Consolidates above the 104.96/104.99 floor.
EUR/JPY continues to range just above the 104.96/99 floor, following initial
support over the last few sessions. Provided this floor is not breached,
scope is seen for a fresh swing higher to re-test the 107.68 level. However,
the larger structure present since 114.18 favours the formation of a lower
high close to 108.03, for a return to re-test 100.76.
Failure to hold under 108.03 will warn of a larger recovery structure,
negating our medium-term bearish bias. Also, if a push over 108.03 can be
sustained this will bring into focus a potential false break lower out of a
falling channel in the daily timeframe.
A move under the annual low would open up an extension to 97.50, ahead
of 92.80, levels not seen since 2000.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 107.90, Objs: 106.90/104.00/100.00, Stop: 109.00 EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPY
200-day MA
10
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Further swing higher anticipated towards 0.8886/85.
EUR/GBP continues to trade close to the 200 day moving average over
recent sessions. However, the bigger picture is dominated by the recent
failure to hold over the key high at 0.8672. Thus the rise from 0.8530 is
viewed as being a corrective structure with scope for a lower high to form
closer to the old 0.8886/85 double top. So, although further short-term
strength may follow, supply is favoured to manifest near 0.8885.
Should this move be realised, it would also take us close to the upper end of
the recent trading range. There is an increased probability of general range
bound trade, thus short entry at higher levels is also supported by the
potential of a return to a period similar to that between 2003 and 2007 (not
shown).
A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a
generally rangebound environment.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8870, Objs: 0.8750/0.8580/0.8400, Stop: 0.8970
EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
200-day MA
11
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Fails to garner momentum close to channel resistance.
EUR/CHF failed to garner momentum after meeting supply close to the
resistance of an hourly rising channel. The subsequent weakness is
currently testing the support of this same structure. A failure to find support
here would warn of a larger fall back down to the 1.2000 level.
Although bullish for the time being, it is expected that the 1.2500-1.3000
zone may limit the current recovery phase from 1.0075. It is anticipated that
the market’s willingness to trade with the bias of the SNB may exhaust
should this trading region be met, as further gains in this cross are likely to
become more dependent on economic releases.
A sustained move under 1.2024 will alter our near-term bullish bias.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Long stopped. Await fresh trading signal.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424
200-day MA
12
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Risk of a larger decline beneath $1530.
Gold remains bearish after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm
the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark™ indicators). This
also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.
Most concerning is that speculative (net long) flows have recently breached
a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
positions.
In price terms, Gold’s latest 20% bearish slide is still worth less than the
largest average drawdown measured since the start of the yellow metal’s
long-term bull market in 1999.
There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly
close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not
been breached in 3 years!
A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this
benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still
offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO
MIG Bank Gold Interview on CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video (CNBC & BLOOMBERG REPORTS)
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 1: 1805, Obj: 1300. Stop: 1704
GOLD
Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
I
RISK ZONE III
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000
26%
34%
20%
SO FAR
25%
II
COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG
GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT
IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!
RISK (1935)
DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLD’S OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS
BREAKOUT
$1704
$1600
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1704 / $1844
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
$1532
13
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Key support at $26.0700.
Silver’s latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment
community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time
silver has crashed, following its 30% fall from April this year.
The move was triggered following a DeMark™ exhaustion sell signal and
has now wiped out almost 50% of silver’s prior gains (taken from Silver’s all-
time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.
Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed
buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%
Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
resumption higher.
Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated
higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 3 at 31.8150, Objs: 28.4300/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 33.0550
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULL MARKET
FROM 1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
38.2% (32.3135)
50% (26.9150)
61.8% (21.5165)
I
II
OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
13 YEAR LEVEL
UNWINDING 67% FROM
OVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio
KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)
DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL
Silver
(Daily)
200 DMA (36.5125)
14
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,
including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or
have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to
buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act
of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal
use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK
makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions
expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes
financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be
made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no
guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the
content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
LEGAL TERMS
15
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 October, 2011
www.migbank.com
Ron William Technical Strategist [email protected]
MIG BANK
[email protected] www.migbank.com
14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00
Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist [email protected]
CONTACT
Howard Friend Chief Market Strategist [email protected]
