2011 08 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

8/6/2019 2011 08 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT8 August, 2011

MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY L-TERMMULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/POSITION ENTRYLEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Exited at 1.4205 (Breakeven).GBP/USD Missed buy at 1.6190. Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Awaiting Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Final objective met at 0.7600. Await signal.USD/CAD Await Trade Buy Setup.AUD/USD Awaiting Sell Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Await fresh signal.EUR/CHF Await fresh signal.GOLD Await Trade Setup.SILVER Await Trade Setup.

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry

pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis

published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com


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EURUSD remains bearish under resistance at 1.4420.

Exited at 1.4205 (Breakeven). EUR/USDs price activity remains bearish,despite a two-day reactionary bounce which failed in resistance at 1.4420.

This confirms another bearish pattern, weighed down by additional failed

breakouts from the major Bermuda triangle pattern. We prefer to open

a trade setup once this pattern triggers a meaningful directional breakout.

Our long standing bearish view remains in play while the downtrend (fromMay) holds. A resumption of lower will target 1.3938 (200-DMA), where a

large amount of die-hard trend followers will be watching closely for

repeat support or a big squeeze lower. Only a close above 1.4580 will lead

to a reassessment of this view.

Inversely, the US dollar index is resuming its oversold bounce from keysupport at 73.50-73.00. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of

defence), helping launch a rebound back into 80.00 over the multi-

week/month horizon.

SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Exited at 1.4205 (Breakeven).

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EURUSD's BERMUDA TRIANGLE

REVERSALPATTERN

AT 200 DMA(1.3928)

FAILEDBREAKOUT

S

REVERSALPATTERN

PIVOT ZONE

+

-

STILLUNWINDING!

US$ INDEX(Weekly)(4 YEARS)

TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL 13

+27% +19%

TRIGGER

(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

TDBUY

EXHAUSTIONSIGNALS

KEY13 SUPPORT

(73.50)

US DOLLAR INDEX

(Daily 2 years)

9

200-DMA(76.91)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


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Higher low now in place at 1.6225.

GBP/USD exhibits a number of characteristics on longer-term charts thatare suggestive of further gains. These include a bounce from the 50 week

moving average, currently at 1.6044, and a push above the resistance of a

daily bear channel, warning of a return to 1.6547 and then 1.6747.

Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested assupport (not shown), suggesting that the recovery from 1.4231, in the

weekly timeframe, remains intact.

The correction that took place in the hourly timeframe narrowly missed ourtarget zone (near 1.6200), reaching 1.6225/29 in recent trade. 1.6225 may

now mark the higher low that we sought for a return to 1.6747.

To a degree we view the recent strength seen in Sterling is down to itbeing perceived as a haven from the stresses in the Eurozone.

Failure to remain above 1.6200 will warn of a fresh relapse towards 1.5781,in the longer-term.


Missed buy at 1.6190. Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Unwinding after recent BOJ intervention.

USD/JPY is unwinding sharply after the recent surge higher (above that all-important level at 80.00), following the BOJs Intervention.

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, watching for stable pricemoves to initiate a buy trade setup and sustained resumption of the

preferred new structural bull-cycle.

To sustain the impulsive move higher, we still need a close above strategiclevels at 80.00, then 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post

Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).


Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

82.00

83.30

WAVE 5

MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN

NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!

(76.25)

84.50

USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKESHOCK!

CONFLUENCEZONE

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

BOJ

INTERVENTION(PART II)

MONTHLY TDBUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERN

(88.00)

EXHAUSTION

BREAKOUTTARGET ZONE

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Falling wedge formation now potentially complete.

Final objective met at 0.7600 last Friday. USD/CHF met our last target at 0.7600. Although further weakness cannot

be ruled out, we would only anticipate continued losses if a hold cannot be

found above 0.7579 (05/08/2011 low).

Considering what is taking place in other risk markets we see the potentialfor USD demand to pick up over coming sessions, thus placing a near-term

floor on USD/CHF. In the hourly timeframe we see a slowing of

momentum.

With this in mind we view the current region as potentially offeringmedium-term scope for USD/CHF long positioning. However, we remain

wary of issues in the Eurozone periphery which have been responsible for

the extreme pricing we see now. We await the appropriate short-term set

up.


Short at 0.7997 met final objective at 0.7600. Await signal.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Accelerated recovery extends above 200-dMA (0.9817).

USD/CADs accelerated recovery has extended above its long-term 200-dMA at 0.9817. A sustained close above this area will signal an important

change in the primary trend, into positive territory around parity 1.0000.

However, price activity remains very extreme at the moment and should bedue some unwinding into near-term support at 0.9751 and 0.9670. We

look to buy on these potential dips for the major move higher.

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is still holding strong having recently breached its200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

In contrast, CHF/CAD is still very overbought, having recently accelerated

to a new 2011 high. The overall move has strengthened the uptrend and

continues to signal further unwinding of risk appetite in the global markets.


Awaiting Buy Trade Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

CHF/CAD (Daily)

61.8%(1.3379)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

EUR/CAD(Daily)

50%(1.3466)

DOJI PATTERNSIGNALS

EXHAUSTION

USD/CAD(Weekly )

BULLISH

REVERSALPATTERNEXTENDS

HIGHER

EXPANDING

PATTERN

USD/CAD (Daily)

MAJOR LOW(0.9446)

REVERSAL


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Sharp decline holds at 200-dMA (1.0305).

AUD/USDs sharp decline is now holding at its long-term 200-dMA near1.0303 (TDST line). We are watching price reactions into this area closely.

Probabilities favour an temporary oversold bounce around this area, whichwe would look to sell into for a break lower into 1.0205, then 1.0000 and

0.9706.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

The Aussie dollar has extended weakness against the Japanese yen andresumed its pattern breakout through our extreme support at 80.42 (61.8%

Fib). The downside breakout adds to risk aversion in the global financial

community.


Awaiting Sell Trade setup.

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

200-DMA

(1.0303)

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD

(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463

38.2%(84.09)

61.8%(80.42)

EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNAL

50%(82.25)

AUD/JPY

(Daily)

13 TD

200-DMA(83.75)

BREAKOUT

ADDS TORISK

AVERSION


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Short-term consolidation favoured to resolve higher.

GBP/JPY broke over daily falling channel resistance yesterday, but hasfaced initial resistance close to the 200 day moving average, returning to

trade within the confines of the old bear channel.

Short-term structure needs to break under the 126.97 high printed on02/08/11. In the meantime a continued push higher remains favoured.

For now we are wary of extremely volatile range bound trade. Longer-term we remain biased to a return to the region near 190.00.

However, any attempt at long positioning needs to be driven by short-

term structure that is suggestive of further gains in the hourly timeframe at

the very least.


Awaiting signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

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Returns to recent daily trading range.

EUR/JPY appears to be stabilising following last weeks intervention by thethe BOJ.

We have seen a test of the 200 day moving average, which has thus farbeen met by supply, with a relapse back into the trading range of the last

few weeks.

A sustained break over 114.18 is required to suggest an end to thedownphase that was initiated from 117.74. With this in mind we look tosee if a push back over the 50 week moving average, currently at 113.57,

can be achieved. Failure to do so will warn of a fresh bout of weakness.

We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in tradedirection.


Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY


10/15

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Meets initial demand at the base of a possible daily channel.

EUR/GBP peaked at 0.9084 recently, potentially marking the end of therising phase seen since 0.8285.

After testing the 200 day moving average last week, this being our near-term target, we have seen a minor recovery higher within a possible rising

daily channel.

While above 0.8643 a continuation of this recovery remains favoured. We also note that a push under 0.8611 is required to break down the

current longer-term bullish structure.


Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



11/15

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Support seen following break under daily channnel support.

EUR/CHF continues to print fresh all-time lows, reaching 1.0711 thus far. However, we note that the last four days of trade have failed to make

significant downside progress, warning of a possible false break lower.

We also note that the yields on Periphery government bond spreads havefallen from their highs. In particular Spanish and Italian 10 year

government bond yields are now trading with a 5% handle. This should

also be supportive near term for EUR/CHF.

However, the question still remains as to how long the ECB can maintain

yields at or below current levels, considering the size of the Italian bond

market. As mentioned in earlier reports, a sustained break over 6% in

Spanish and Italian 10 year yields could potentially cause serious funding

issues in both of these nations. Maintaining these yields under 6% in the

absence of any real improvements may prove a step too far for the ECB.

While under 1.1374 our bias remains firmly lower. Back over 1.1892 isrequired to end our bearish bias.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Await fresh signal.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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Gold holding near psychological level at 1700.00.

Gold prices remain surprisingly resilient and are now holding nearpsychological level at 1700.00, having broken above its recent

consolidation zone. Next resistance can be found at 1755.00 and 1800.00.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity which hastentatively pushed above the 12-year trend-channel, that had also recently

developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

Keeping this in mind, there is still potential for a sharp unwinding lower,which would be healthy following such a powerful surge higher.

Near-term support can be found at 1640.40 (recent low) and 1600(previous psychological level). A sustained close beneath here would warn

of a sharp reversal lower.


Await Trade Setup.

GOLD

Gold daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GOLD Weekly LOG Chart (1999-2011)

TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

ACCELERATION INLONG POSITIONS

GOLD COTNet LargeSpeculationPositions

GOLD Daily (April 2010-2011)

10 consecutiveHigher Closes


13/15

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Sharp bearish reversal continues to weigh.

Silvers recent sharp bearish reversal pattern continues to weigh, while alsosignaling an important divergence from Gold. Only a push back above

42.2300 (recent high) will expose our next target zone at 43.1136-43.8477.

Near-term support can be found at 38.2100 (20 th July low). A break herewould trigger downside risk into 34.0519 (200-dMA).

Key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull market) and wouldstill mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


Await Trade Setup.

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

OVER BASE

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

30YEAR

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)

Silver (Daily) 13

200 dMA(32.9235)

50%(41.0513)

LEGAL


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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be

reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

DIS

CLA

IMER

LEGALTERMS


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[email protected]

Howard FriendChief Market Strategist

[email protected] StrategistBjioy Kar

Tel.+41 32 722 81 00CH-2008 Neuchtel14, rte des Gouttes dOr

www.migbank.com

MIG [email protected]

[email protected] StrategistRon William

CONTACT
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

Documents

2011 08 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+