2011 12 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

8/3/2019 2011 12 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Await New Sell Trade Setup.GBP/USD Await fresh signal.USD/JPY Await New Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF Await fresh signal.USD/CAD Awaiting New Buy Trade setup.AUD/USD Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Missed sell at 123.00. Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8700 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285 0.8835EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.2480 1.2380/1.12226/1.1973 1.2580GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT8 December, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.


2/15

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Holding pattern favours a resumption back into 1.3146.

EUR/USD is continuing to trade within a short-term holding pattern, which is

unwinding from last weeks sharp recovery (as six central banks, reduced

their USD funding costs to ease the debt crisis). Our cycle analysis also

suggests increased volatility within the first two weeks of December.

The recovery is still expected to be limited into 1.3610, then 1.3730 and

perhaps even 1.3850-90. Probability also favours a bearish reversal at these

levels for a resumption back into 1.3146 (04th

Oct swing low).

A sustained close beneath 1.3146 will re-establish the larger downtrend

from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major

low).

Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and still targets

its recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%).

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs

(3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain

strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold

extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report:EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA(1.4080)

BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

BREAKOUTS

UPTREND2 YEARS

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

(1.4000)

1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL)1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

+

-

USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

DEMARK

BUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

+10%SO FAR

EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

9 KEY SUPPORT(73.50-73.00)

13

USD INDEX

200-DMA(75.80)

DEMARKBUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

9 MONTHHIGH
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embeddedhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


3/15

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Rises to re-test the 1.5726 level.

GBP/USD saw a minor surge higher during afternoon trade yesterday. This

followed a failed break to the downside which met support at 1.5561. A

break over 1.5726 has now been realised, potentially initiating a furtherextension higher, moving comfortably back into the old range that existed

during the last calendar year. We now wait to see if an extension higher can

be realised, as this would be suggestive of a larger recovery higher,

thereafter.

We remain alert to the fact that we are nearing the base of the year long

range which, given the short-term relief seen in the Euro-Zone, may offer

opportunities to enter long positions. This may also be advantageous if

rising yields return to the Euro-Zone and Sterling attains a safe haven status

once again.

Taking this approach will need to see levels closer to 1.5400 for a well

placed stop. The range bound trade of the last few days is best avoided.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


4/15

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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level).

USD/JPY is weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark Level). There is an ever

growing probability of unfolding a third price retracement back to pre-

intervention levels (PIR III) and potentially even a new post world war recordlow beneath 75.35 (PINL).

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first

to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal

Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change

Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg


Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

82.00

83.30

USD/JPY

QUAKESHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

POST

G7MOVE (I)

HIGH

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)HIGH

PIR III

MONTHLY DEMARKBUYSIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNANTICIPATE

SBREAKOUT(85-79)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdfhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/USDJPY_Verging_on_a_Major_40_Year_Cycle_Reversal.pdf


5/15

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Sustained over 0.9331 to target 0.9776.

USD/CHF has a short-term structure that is suggestive of a complete leg

higher from the 0.8568 low. This now acts to emphasise the 0.9331 high as

being pivotal to further gains. If a break above this level can be achieved,this will be suggestive of a larger swing, to potentially target 0.9776.

However, given events elsewhere, the fall from 0.9331 to 0.9066 is likely the

first leg lower in a larger corrective phase which may be affected by a return

to rising yields in the core bond markets of the Euro-Zone.

With this in mind, we note that the respite that was offered to 10 year Italian

government bond yields following the USD based swap rate cut may be

nearing completion. The current trading zone near 5.750% is expected to

see strong support, with the potential of a return back towards 7.00% overcoming weeks. If upside pressure were to return to Italian and Spanish

yields then USD/CHF will likely experience a degree of downside pressure

too.

Spanish and Italian government bonds have seen a reasonable sized

pullback over the last week, currently trading at 5.405% and 5.924% versus

6.478% and 7.355%, before the six party central bank agreement. (These

same yields were trading at 5.187% and 5.777% respectively at the same

time yesterday.)


Await fresh signal.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


6/15

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Sharp Setbacks hold steady at 1.0080.

USD/CADs sharp setbacks are holding steady, following the recent short-

term DeMark exhaustion sell signal and has found support at 1.0080

A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott wave cycle.

Only a sustained close beneath 1.0080 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9861 and 0.9726 (31st

Aug low).

EUR/CAD has accelerated its decline (-4% in 13 days) and is now targeting

the base of an important multi-month distribution pattern. A break beneath

1.3393-79 (19

th

Sept low/61.8% Fib), signals an important breakdown into1.3140 and would provide substantial correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.

CHF/CAD, which serves as a proxy for risk appetite, has also weakened

sharply beneath its 200-day MA (which had provided support for most of the

uptrend since mid-2010). Key support now holds at 1.0893 (61.% Fib

retrace). A break here would extend the sharp decline into 1.0332 (01st

March low) and help confirm further unwinding of global risk appetite.


Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup.Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail:[email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Weekly)

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENSLARGER

RECOVERY

DEMARKBUY SIGNAL

USD/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA0.9861

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50%(1.3570)

61.8%(1.3379)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(1.3876)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

50%(1.1488)

61.8%(1.0893)


7/15

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Consolidating beneath its 200-day MA at 1.0405.

AUD/USD is consolidating beneath its 200-day MA which is currently

holding at 1.0404. This key level is likely to cap further potential gains.

The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside

pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand

dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200-

day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day/week horizon.

The Aussie dollar is holding its mild recovery against the Japanese yen,

while trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern.

Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal

further unwinding of global risk appetite.



AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily, weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD(Weekly)

38.2%(0.9144)

50%(0.8546)

61.8%(0.7947)

3 YEARUPTRENDISUNDER

PRESSURE

STRUCTURALLEVEL

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

DEMARKSELLSIGNALS

200-DMA1.0405

REVERSINGINTO

200-DMA

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

200-DMA

(82.50)

13

38.2%(76.70)

61.8%(68.47)

50%(72.58)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

DEMARKSELL SIGNAL

RESUMPTION OF

BREAKDOWNADDS TORISK AVERSION


8/15

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Rangebound since the start of December.

GBP/JPY has failed to gain any downside momentum, given the breakdown

from an hourly rising wedge. This failure to gain downside momentum is

consistent with movement in GBP/USD, which is suggestive of Sterling

being used as a safe haven, while uncertainty remains within the Euro-

Zone.

As noted in prior reports, should this pair reach the 123.00 level a degree of

resistance would be anticipated. In the meantime, we remain wary of the

short-term range bound environment.

If a return to and break over 122.64 can be achieved and sustained, this will

suggest scope for a larger recovery higher back towards 127.32. This ties

in to a medium-term expectation of a much larger corrective swing higher,

potentially back to 163.09.

If the recent range bound trade is resolved to the downside, then the 120.00

level should provide a degree of support, from where a further leg higher

would be favoured to develop.

A failure to hold over 119.38 will warn of a return to 116.84.


Missed sell at 123.00. Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


9/15

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Sideways market continues for now.

EUR/JPY is exhibiting many of the same characteristics as a host of

currency pairs in the approach to the Christmas holidays. Most importantly

the recent bout of intervention by various central banks warns of a period of

coordinated intervention to maintain the stability of the Euro as a currency.

This acts as a manipulation of the market, making technical analytics

harder.

We view the fall that has taken place since 111.60 as being corrective in

nature, suggesting potential for a return to this same level. However, in the

shorter-term timeframe a corrective phase appears to have completed at

105.70. Thus we have a directional clash in two timeframes.

The EUR component of this pair is clearly affected by the movement in

EUR/USD. A break under 1.3146 in EUR/USD will end the rising phase

seen since 2010. This would likely be associated with a fall back down to

100.76 and potentially lower.

Given the above clash between the structure and events in the Euro-Zone,

we prefer to wait on the side lines.

A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the medium-

term outlook more bullish.


Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY


10/15

10


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Rangebound while above 0.8486.

EUR/GBP continues to trade within the 0.8486 - 0.8665 range, reaching

0.8511 yesterday. While above 0.8486 scope is seen for a rise back

towards 0.8700 to complete a larger corrective phase from the 0.8486 level.

In fact false breaks lower have been a hall mark of this currency pair in

multiple timeframes, so the strategy to sell higher will be maintained.

We continue to expect a return to rising yields within the Euro-Zone and it is

within this environment that we see the potential for Sterling to be perceived

as a safe haven. Core government bond yields have eased back somewhat

after the coordinated cut in USD based swap lines amongst selected central

banks. However, a lasting solution still appears a long way off. The fact

that there is a high demand for US Dollars from European banks is a

warning sign and a clear weakness suggesting scope for a credit

contractionary phase.

Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200

day and 50 week moving averages. As mentioned in prior reports the

1.3146 level in EUR/USD remains key. A push under this level will likely

lead to weakness in all EUR crosses, as it will mark a breakdown in

confidence in the EUR and also end the rising trend that has been

witnessed since the 1.1876 low seen in the middle of 2010.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8700, Objs: 0.8565/0.8485/0.8285, Stop: 0.8835.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP



11/15

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Signs of supply seen close to the recent 1.2500 ceiling.

EUR/CHF Met supply again yesterday close to the 1.2500 ceiling that has

capped this pair for the last two months. However we will maintain our sell

limit strategy at 1.2480 as it represents a reasonable trade location if short

stops are targeted in thin Christmas markets. The return to the upper end of

the recent trading range has been assisted by the six central bank dollar

swap rate coordination.

A rising sovereign yield environment is anticipated to return to the core of

the Euro-Zone, which should assist the mild bearish bias, however, pushing

back under 1.2123/31 represents the real goal of a lasting breakdown in the

recent range bound structure.

The chance of collusion of central banks has made the current environment

difficult to trade from a technical perspective as free market movement is

one of the main assumptions of this analytic technique.

The repeated failure of this pair to break over the 50 week moving average

over recent weeks is also an initial warning that the prior downtrend may not

be over. The large cluster of stops that is likely to be placed around the

1.2000 level is also anticipated to aid any short positioning, questioning the

ability of the SNB to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell limit 3 at 1.2480, Objs: 1.2380/1.2226/1.1973, Stop: 1.2580.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



12/15

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Remains negative beneath $1800.

Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at $1800,

despite the recent push higher. Only a close above here would develop a

more sustained recovery into $1845.

Near-term support can be found at $1667 (21 Nov low). Moreover, there is

still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close

beneath $1600/04 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been

breached in 3 years!

A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040 - 1000.

Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special ReportGolds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG&CNBCREPORTS)



GOLD

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL(12 YEARS)

I

RISK ZONE III

CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINEINTO $1300 & $1040-1000

26%

34%

20%SO FAR

25%

II

COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK SIGNALWARNED OF GOLDSOVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

BREAKOUT

$1800

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530

UPSIDE: $1760 /$1800

GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdfhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202http://www.bloomberg.com/video/78409176/http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FAhttp://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf


13/15

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Key support at $30.0000.

Silver is holding around key support at 30.0000. Only a sustained close

below here would trigger a test of the previous swing low at 26.0700.

Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the

major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces

volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough time to

recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

This also helps explain recent divergences between gold and silver.


SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

SILVER

Spot Silver daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165)

I

II

OVER 30YEAR BASE PATTERN

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARKSELL

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 70%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

DEMARKSELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.9638)


14/15

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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMERNo information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS


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Documents

2011 12 08 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report