2011 12 28 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

8/3/2019 2011 12 28 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Await fresh signal.

GBP/USD Await fresh signal.

USD/JPY Await new buy trade setup above 80.00.

USD/CHF Looking to sell.

USD/CAD Awaiting new buy trade setup.

AUD/USD Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY Await new setup.

EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8425 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050 0.8525

EUR/CHF Sell Stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230

GOLD SHORT 2 1705 1530/1300 (Entered 12/12/2011) 1705

SILVER SHORT 2 34.1300 26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 34.1300

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT28 December, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

http://www.migbank.com/

mailto:[email protected]







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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 28 December, 2011

www.migbank.com

Support seen close to the 1.3000 level.

• EUR/USD is unwinding mildly from oversold conditions, driven by short-

covering as the market adjusts to the break beneath 1.3146.

• Our cycle analysis successfully signalled increased volatility within the

first two weeks of December across “risk” proxies, including the equity

and commodity markets.

• Watch for a sustained close beneath 1.3000 (psychological level) to

resume EUR/USD’s multi-month downtrend into 1.2870 (2011 major low).

• Near-term resistance can be found at 1.3215 and potentially even 1.3550

(02 Dec high). Any rebound into these levels is likely to be short-lived.

• Inversely, the USD Index has extended its recovery higher to new 11-

month highs, (a move worth over 10% from the summer 2010 lows).

• Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are strengthening once again and will

continue to help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic

oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”

US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Await fresh signal.

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embedded


http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54




http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/












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Short-term a re-test of 1.5770/80 possible.

• GBP/USD exhibits a short-term structure from 1.5409 that suggests a

return back to 1.5770/80. However, a pullback would be expected

should a return to these levels be achieved, as the rise from 1.5423 isseen as being corrective in nature. A sustained push over 1.5770/80

will negate this corrective scenario.

• Italian ten year yields have eased back from the 7.000% level but this is

seen as being a temporary respite, with an expectation that this yield will

return to the 7.000% region and then on to re-test the high at 7.483%.

This could lead to GBP/USD experiencing a degree of support given the

negative structure that we are also seeing in EUR/GBP.

• Failure to remain above 1.5423 will see an immediate target at 1.5272

and then potentially trend-line support near 1.5100.


Range bound trade likely t o persist near-term.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







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Weakening beneath 78.24 (DeMark™ Level).

• USD/JPY is still weak beneath 78.24 (DeMark™ Level), as pricecontinues to hold within a multi-day trading range (see hourly chartbelow).

• Confirmation beneath 77.25 (pivot level) would help trigger a third price

retracement back to pre-intervention levels and potentially even a new

post world war record low beneath 75.35.

• Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY

buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and

be the first to call the market bottom, within the end of this multi-year

contracting pattern.

• This may first inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal.

• The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward

a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle

inflection points to trigger over the next few weeks, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY.

Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal VIDEO

Webinar: USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change

Media Reports: CNBC / Squawk Box & Bloomberg


Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup above 80.00.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rDHE6uEqm6w




http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21




http://www.cnbc.com/id/45301945



http://65.55.53.237/id/15840232?video=3000062126&play=1



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-24/dollar-may-rise-20-to-94-yen-on-elliot-wave-rebound-technical-analysis.html














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Tight range bound trade persists.

• USD/CHF continues to trade largely sideways in the hourly timeframe.

Focus remains on movements in EUR/CHF over coming days and

particularly into next year. As EUR/CHF nears the 1.2000 level againthe probability of intervention by the SNB will be heightened. Thus the

near-term fate of USD/CHF may be determined by EUR/CHF.

• As detailed in other parts of this report, there has been a return to the

7.000% region and higher in Italian 10 year yields, although today we

are seeing a minor pullback, ahead of debt auctions today/tomorrow.

Fresh highs are still anticipated in this maturity, with scope then for a

minor pullback in yields, maintaining downside pressure on USD/CHF.

Next year is also likely to see a return to focusing on rollover funding

issues for the Italian economy.

• 10 year yields in Spain and Italy are currently trading at 5.084% and

6.767% versus 6.478% and 7.355%, before the US Dollar based swap

agreement. These yields were trading at 5.384% and 7.103%

respectively on 27 December.


Looking to sell.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







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www.migbank.com

Unwinding from intraday resistance at 1.0425.

• USD/CAD is unwinding sharply from intraday resistance at 1.0425, which

coincided with a short-term DeMark™ exhaustion signal.

• We prefer to wait for a strong directional confirmation higher before

initiating a buy trade setup.

• A sustained break under 1.0220 now suggests further downside into

1.0000.

• Meanwhile, the bulls need to push back above 1.0425 and 1.0524 (25

Nov swing high), in order to trigger a larger breakout from the rate’s multi-

month triangle pattern.

• In terms of the big picture, a directional confirmation above 1.0680 is still

needed to unlock the recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the

upside breakout from the rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of

a major Elliott wave cycle.

• EUR/CAD has breached the base of an important multi-month distribution

pattern. A sustained break beneath 1.3393-79 (19th

Sept low/61.8% Fib),

now signals an important breakdown into 1.3140 and provides substantial

correlation pressure onto EUR/USD.


Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup above 1.0425.


USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







7


www.migbank.com

Strong unwinding from oversold conditions.

• AUD/USD is unwinding strongly from oversold conditions, which also

coincided with an intraday DeMark™ buy signal.

• Although this recovery is sharp, it is likely to be short-lived as signaled by

the DeMark™ signal. The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further

compound downside pressure on the rate’s multi-year uptrend and push

back towards 0.9611.

• Elsewhere, the Aussie has weakened against the New Zealand dollar.

Near-term price activity has mean reverted back over the 200-day MA

and we watch for further setbacks over the multi-day/week horizon.

• The Aussie dollar is also pairing back its mild recovery against the

Japanese yen, while holding above the neck-line of its two-year

distribution pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at

72.00 which would signal further unwinding of g lobal risk appetite.


Await fresh signal.

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







8


www.migbank.com

Daily bear flag in focus for now.

• GBP/JPY is potentially in the process of forming a bear flag in the daily

timeframe. As anticipated a degree of resistance has been seen close

to 123.00. A break under the 121.00 region will likely accelerate the

downside momentum.

• Although short-term weakness may be witnessed there is an

expectation that GBP/JPY will see strong support on the approach to

116.84, should this region be revisited.

• Longer-term it is anticipated that a much larger recovery will develop

with scope for a return to 163.09 and then potentially on to 192.65.

However, signs of basing are still not evident, with the bias still to the

downside in the near-term.


Await fresh signal.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







9


www.migbank.com

Short-term range trading persists.

• EUR/JPY has entered into a tight range bound trading zone in the

hourly timeframe, after finding interim support close to the 105.00 level

recently.

• We remain wary of the fact that the 1.3146 level has now been

breached in EUR/USD warning of a larger swing lower in EUR/USD.

This makes the possibility of a return to 100.76 more likely in EUR/JPY.

• However, the structure present since 100.76 is suggestive of a further

swing to re-test 111.60 over the medium-term. Thus, while trade is

maintained above 101.05, a further leg higher is favoured.

• A breakout of the tight hourly trading range is now sought, with a push

higher favoured in line with the medium-term structural arguement given

above.

• This clash between structure and event risk in the Euro-Zone keeps us

on the side lines for now.

• Sustained under 100.76 will warn of a much larger continuation to the

downside.


Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY







10


www.migbank.com

Lower high sought near 0.8425.

• EUR/GBP is maintaining the initial support already seen near 0.8300.

Scope is seen for a minor continuation of the short-term recovery

higher. However, hourly structure remains bearish with a lower high

sought versus 0.8613 for a f resh swing to re-test 0.8303.

• If a sustained break under 0.8303 can be realised then an extension

back to the 0.8068 – 0.8142 region would become viable. This view is

assisted by the recent push under 1.3146 in EUR/USD, which may act

to make EUR cross shorts easier to maintain.

• Rising yields in the core Euro-Zone sovereign bond markets is a

continued concern and one that may destabilise the FX markets going

forward. Within this environment Sterling may well be judged as a short-

term safe haven, further adding to the potential for downside pressure

ahead.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8425, Objs: 0.8325/0.8142/0.8050, Stop: 0.8525

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP








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Short-term structure conducive to an extension lower.

• EUR/CHF is developing a structure in the hourly timeframe which is

currently suggestive of a sizeable extension lower. It is anticipated that

if a break under the recent low at 1.2170 can be achieved then

momentum follow through may lead to the targeting of clustered stops

under both 1.2123/30 and 1.2000.

• The Italian 10 year sovereign yield remains elevated, trading close to

7.000%. The new year will see further rollover funding, coupled with a

likely bout of negative growth in Italy, an unhealthy combination. Thus,

there is plenty of scope for the Swiss Franc to be sought once again as

a safe haven. The low yield available on Swiss Franc deposits is

unlikely to act as an impediment to it being demanded by investors.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

EUR/CHF daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP








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www.migbank.com

Gold weakens after testing its 200-day average as resisance.

• Gold has re-tested its 200-day average, which was recently broken for the

first time in 3 years. The move was triggered by a multi-month triangle

pattern breakout (see both daily and intraday charts).• Downside pressure remains heavy from inter-market weakness across

related risk proxies such as EUR/USD and equity markets. Moreover, there

is still heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close

beneath $1600 and $1530 (swing low).

• A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000 (12-year channel–floor/see

top chart insert).

• Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached

a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions. This will trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would

ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity into summer 2012.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)


SHORT 2: 1705, Objs: 1530, 1300, Stop: 1705

GOLD

Gold daily and weekly charts, Bloomberg Finance LP


Gold hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FA




http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.html












http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202






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www.migbank.com

Weak bounce retested $30.0000.

• Silver’s weak recovery from oversold conditions has tested key support

turned resistance at $30.0000. A sustained close below here now triggers

a test of the previous swing low at $26.0700.

• Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following

the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally

produces volatile trading ranges. This allows the market to have enough

time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

• Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165

(61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain

silver’s long-term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for

the eventual resumption higher.

• Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio (see top chart insert) which

has now accelerated higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over

the next few weeks. This also helps explain recent divergences between

gold and silver.


SHORT 2: 34.1300, Objs: 26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 34.1300

SILVER

Spot Silver hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


Spot Silver daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







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distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS



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www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes d’OrCH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]











Documents

2011 12 28 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report