2011 07 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

8/6/2019 2011 07 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+

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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 25 July, 2011

MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY L-TERMMULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/POSITION ENTRYLEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD Sell Stop 3 1.4290 1.4060/1.3840/1.3660 1.4450

GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.6190 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550 1.6120

USD/JPY Awaiting Trade Setup above 80.00.

USD/CHF Sell limit 3 0.8120 0.8035/0.7860/0.7700 0.8205USD/CAD Await Trade Setup (neutral).

AUD/USD Sell Stop 3 1.0526 1.0390/1.0200/0.9700 1.0730

GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 114.70

EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005

EUR/CHF Sell limit 3 1.1650 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200 1.1720

GOLD Exited at 1615

SILVER SHORT 3 39.2800 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000 41.5500

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel SwitzerlandTel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com


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DAILY TECHNICALREPORT25 July, 2011

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Extended rebound stalls into key resistance 1.4400-1.4419.

EUR/USDs extended rebound (from its bullish reversal pattern near the200-day MA), has stalled into key resistance zone between 1.4400-1.4419

(76.4/78.6% Fib level).

Our outlook remains neutral/bearish, while price holds beneath key

resistance at 1.4578. Failure into these levels will keep bearish risks on for a

resumption of the downside pattern breakout, offering an acceleratedimpulsive (wave 3) into 1.3750/1.3659 (2 yr uptrend/61.8% Fib-Jan 2011

rise), thereafter squeezing further conservative trend-followers into our

initial objective at 1.3370.

Only a sustained close above 1.4578 will lead to a reassessment of our

long standing bearish view, opening a potential extended recovery intoprevious key resistance at 1.4711/30.

Inversely, the US dollar index is now holding steady around key support at

73.50. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of defence), where a

potential oversold bounce could develop.

SPECIAL REPORT : EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. Please select link: REPORT VIDEO

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

Sell Stop 3: 1.4290, Obj: 1.4060/1.3840/1.3660, Stop: 1.4450

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

32.8%(1.4148)

EUR/USD (Daily 1.5 years)

UPTREND(1.3760)

61.8%(1.3659)

50%(1.3903)

PSYCHOLOGICAL(1.5000)

WAVEOBJECTIVE

(1.3370)

(1.4578/50) KEY POINT

REVERSALPATTERN

AT 200 DMA(1.3919)

KEY POINT

(1.4711/30)

?TRIGGER LEVEL

13

(1.4150) RESUMES WAVE 3 DECLINE

TD EXHAUSTION

9SELL SIGNALS

+

-

STILLUNWINDING!

US$ INDEX

(Weekly)(4 YEARS)

TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL 13

+27% +19%

TRIGGER

(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

FALLINGWEDGE

PATTERN

KEY13 SUPPORT

(73.50)

US DOLLAR INDEX

(Daily 2 years)

TDBUY SIGNALS

EXHAUSTION9

200-DMA(76.91)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf


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Higher low sought for a continuation of strength.

GBP/USD continues to be supported by the 50 week moving average afterbreaking out of a weekly rising channel earlier in the year.

Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested as

support in recent trade. We have also seen a failure in the daily timeframe to stay beneath the old

support of a possible triangular reversal pattern, weakening the case for

the bears. We look to see how the region near 1.6200 fares, in the event of a

corrective phase developing, and now favour the formation of a higher low

in this region ahead of fresh swing higher. Bigger picture, a larger trading range may be developing.


Buy limit 3 at 1.6190, Objs: 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550, Stop: 1.6120.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected] , Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Holding at extreme support 78.24.

USD/JPY has weakened further, but is still holding around the extremesupport that we have been watching closely at 78.44/24 (78.6/78.6% Fib

retracement-March upswing).

We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are switching to a more

cautious footing, watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially

new structural bull-cycle. However, a close beneath 76.25 would changeour view.

To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close above

strategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post

Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).

The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto

88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).


Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

TDST (81.15)

82.00

83.30

WAVE 5

MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN

1

NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!

(76.25)

84.50

USD/JPY (Daily

TDST (83.90)

1 YEAR)

EARTHQUAKESHOCK!

CONFLUENCEZONE

WAVE 2

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PI R)

POSTG7

MOVEHIGH

BULLISHREVERSAL AT

(78.44/24)

EXTREME

RETRACEMENT

MONTHLY TDBUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERN

ZONE (88.00)

EXHAUSTION

BREAKOUTTARGET

13


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Under wedge support required to complete pattern.

Sell recommendation revised. USD/CHF continues to trade within the confines of a daily/weekly wedge.

This follows the failure to gain momentum in recent trade following a failed

upside and downside break. A lower high is now potentially in place at 0.8278, with scope for a test of

wedge support and then a further break lower.

We also note that a push under the long-term wedge support is requiredto complete this ultimately bullish long term pattern.

A push over 0.8398 will end our short-term bearish bias. We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8120, Objs: 0.8035/0.7860/0.7700, Stop: 0.8205

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHFUSD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Sharp unwinding from multi-year low at 0.9423.

USD/CAD is unwinding sharply from its fresh multi-year low at 0.9423.Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates expanding

pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915 (38.2% Fib-Sept

2010 decline & 200 DMA).

Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective has been neutralised by a

failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.

Indeed, the bulls must now recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swing

high/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March

high) and 1.0000 (parity level).

Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is continuing to accelerate lower having recently

breached its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).

In contrast, CHF/CAD is now developing volatile price swings within a

sideways trading range, having failied to retest its 2011 highs at 1.1887.

Moreover, the pair has also triggered two DeMark exhaustion signals

suggesting risk of further weakeness into support at 1.1193 (38.2% Fib).


Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).

USD/CAD


USD/CAD daily and chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EXPANDINGPATTERN

INITIAL FAILUREAT RESISTANCE

USD/CAD (Daily)

MAJOR LOW(0.9446)

USD/CAD(Weekly )

0.9059

TDBUYSIGNAL 13EXHAUSTION

FAILED

FALLINGWEDGE

CHANNEL

BREAKOUT

FROM

61.8%(1.3379)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

EUR/CAD(Daily)

200-DMA

(1.3715)

38.2%(1474.69)

50%(1474.69)

CHF

61.8%(1474.69)

/CAD (Daily)

TDSIGNALS

EXHAUSTIONSELL

1313


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Risk level at 1.0935.

AUD/USDs extended bounce from key support at 1.0443 (TDST line), hascapped into our DeMarks TD Risk level at 1.0935.

Keep alert to the fact that our DeMark indicator still weighs exhaustion

sell signals across both weekly and daily timeframes. Meantime, our

downside trigger level remains at 1.0443 (TDST line), thereafter unlocking

extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then 1.0205 and 0.9990.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.

The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.

The Aussie dollar is weakening once again vs. the Japanese yen, afterreturning to its multi-month pattern floor. Only a confirmed downside

breakout would signal a switch to risk aversion in the financial community.


Sell Stop 3: 1.0526, Obj: 1.0390, 1.0200, 0.9700, Stop: 1.0730

AUD/USD


AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

0.9706

KEY SUPPORT V-SHAPE

UPSIDE REVERSAL

0.9537

0.9804

1.0256

AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)

1.0200

13 TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

13?

200-DMA(1.0234)

TD RISK1.0935

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463

38.2%(84.09)

POTENTIALBREAKOUT

ADDS TO61.8%(80.42)

EXHAUSTIONSELL

RISKAVERSION

50%

(82.25)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

13 TDSIGNAL

200-DMA(83.75)


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Further weakness anticipated near-term.

GBP/JPY has thus far met resistance close to the prior swing low at 128.17.Failure to remain below this level on a daily closing basis will increase the

probability of a return to the resistance of the falling channel. In the meantime, we remain biased to a return towards the support of the

weekly channel and then potentially on towards 122.36. Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, we

expect a return to this region and then a clear break under this support,ahead of a possible recovery.

We now await a shorter-term setup, to assist us in the formulation of an

explicit trade recommendation.


Await fresh signal, with a bias to shorts.

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


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A break under hourly trend-line support to weaken further.

EUR/JPY appears to be breaking down again after completing a recoveryphase following the peak at 123.33 and then subsequently failing to hold

over 116.00. We combine this with the recent break under the platform near 113.42/50,

which also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average. The exhaustion pattern that we witnessed last Friday has led to a period of

weakness, which now challenges trend line support off 109.63, with abreak under this structure weakening the outlook further.

If a push under 109.58 can be realised a substantial extension lower would

then be favoured to follow, potentially beyond 105.44. We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 week

moving average.

Failure to remain under 113.50 on a daily closing basis will warn of an endto weakness and a return to strength.


Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/JPY


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Remains largely rangebound for now.

EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285,with the move lower from 0.9084 meeting 0.8705 thus far.

A return to the 200 day moving average is now favoured. This currently

lies near 0.8667. We view the current bounce as being corrective in nature within the

shorter-term timeframe and seek a lower high close to 0.8900, ahead of a

resumption of weakness. With current trade remaining largely range bound we seek a final swing

higher in the shorter-term timeframe ahead of fresh weakness. A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-term

bullish structure.


Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005. EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBPEUR/GBP



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A return to 1.1374 is now favoured.

Sell recommendation revised. EUR/CHF has potentially registered a lower high at 1.1892 last week.

Todays break under 1.1610 now warns of a resumption of weakness with a

return to 1.1374 now favoured. The longer-term falling trend remains intact and while under 1.2080 we

would favour a continuation of the larger trend.

We note, in the absence of further stresses from the Eurozone periphery,that a larger recovery would then become likely due to the probable

extreme short positioning in this market.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell limit 3 at 1.1650, Objs: 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200, Stop: 1.1720.

EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP



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Resumption of uptrend needs to close above 1620.

Golds resumption of the uptrend needs to close above 1620 in order toconfirm sustainable extensions higher.

We had prefered hedge for downside risks following the recent

unprecedented explosive upside move, which triggered a confluence of

our exhaustion signals.

However, as previously stated, it was critical the market confirmed a

reversal beneath a filtered price/time trigger point. This downside trigger

level still holds at 1588/82.

In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity within the

apex of the 12-year exhaustion pattern (illustrated on the weekly log chart),which has also developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.

Golds COT liquidity indicator (net long positions) remains squeezed within

a tight range (as Gold continued to make push to record highs on lower

volume). At this stage, the risk remains for a downside breakout which

would unlock over 1.5 years of sizeable gold long positions.


Exited at 1615.

GOLD


Gold daily, weekly chart and COT liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


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Bullish revival MUST close above 40.0000.

Silvers bulish revival MUST sustain a daily close above 40.0000 in order toextend another potential recovery leg higher.

Such a positive scenario would help extend the bullish recovery further into

our next target zone between 43.1136-43.8477.

Meanwhile, neat-term support can be found at 39.1425. A break herewould trigger downside risk into 33.8416 (32.8% Fib), near the long-term

200-day MA at 33.3182.

Remember that key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bull

market) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.

We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, which

is currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.


SHORT 3: 39.2800, Obj: 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000, Stop: 41.5500

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly and Gold/Silver Ratio chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

OVER BASE

38.2%(32.3135)

50%(26.9150)

30 YEAR

61.8%(21.5165)

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS

UNWINDING 37% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver Ratio

37%13 YEAR LEVEL

TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)

Silver (Daily) 13

200 MA(32.9235)

38.2%(34.0015)

50%(29.1244)

50%(41.0513)


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Limitation of liability

MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind,including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests

MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have

or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be

moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and

are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no

representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and

opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In

particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other

advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made

solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a

qualified expert before making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be

reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,

whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and

complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or

recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect

any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by

D I S

C L A I M E R

LEGALTERMS


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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market [email protected] [email protected]

Technical StrategistBjioy Kar

Tel. +41 32 722 81 00

14, rte des Gouttes dOrCH-2008 Neuchtel

www.migbank.com

MIG BANK [email protected]

[email protected] StrategistRon William

CONTACT
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.migbank.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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2011 07 25 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+