The Political Economy of a Green Revolution

Pol376: International Political Economy

April 2, 2012

Michael Lee

Summary

Global Warming Possible solutions Friedman and a “Green New Deal” Obstacles to a Green Revolution

Ideational Implementation Political International

A green opportunity?

Negative externalities of dirty energy consumption

What are the negative externalities of filling up a tank of gas?

Global warming Other pollutants Foreign policy Petro-dictatorship Complexity

Hot, Flat and Crowded

Rise of China Green new deal Competitive advantage http://video.nytimes.com/video/2007/04/10/m

agazine/1194817107532/the-power-of-green.html

Energy internet Carbon tax/price floors Regulation/incentives

Other approaches to climate change

Doing nothing Cap and trade Government intervention Geo-engineering

Battle of ideas

Climate science Skeptics

Deniers Cornucopians Lomborg

“Climategate” Hockey stick Environmental tradeoffs

Temperature since 1000 CE, multiple sources

Implementation problems

Variable generation, constant demand Government picking winners Green bubbles

Spain Czech Republic

Ontario wind energy as % of capacity: variable energy generation, regular demand

Does a green public lead to green policies? (WVS)

Early 90s Late 90s Late 00s

France 54.4% 37.6% (no data)

China 82.4% 74.3% 73.7%

USA 63.9% 60.9% 49.8%

Canada 63.7% 58.1% 65.7%

Pricing carbon: a tough sell

USA Cap and trade http://politics.nytimes.com/congress/votes/111/hou

se/1/477 Sectoral/regional costs

Canada Green tax shift (carbon tax) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=os5vXksQwts&

feature=relmfu

If you were building a political coalition of green interests, what would it look like?

Past international efforts

Global collective action problems Montreal protocol (Ozone), 1987 Acid rain treaty (S02, NOx), 1991 http://www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progress/arp03.

html Kyoto protocol (C02), 1997 Copenhagen (C02), 2009

Human C02 emissions since 1850

Why was Kyoto unsuccessful, while previous agreements succeeded?

Country C02/person Status

US 18.9 Signed, did not ratify

Canada 16.9 Ratified, dropped out

Japan 9.8 Failed to meet target

Germany 9.6 Met target

UK 8.9 Exceeded target

France 6 Exceeded target

Are there competitive advantages to going green?

Who has a comparative advantage in solar power?

Annual Average windspeed

Summary

Academic consensus may not translate into public acceptance

Hard to implement Tricky international and domestic

distributional politics