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5TH INNOVATION SUMMIT (02/09/2012) The EU Commission awarded economist Dr. Rafael Popper from the University of Manchester a research grant to find out how to track down the signs of future developments. Developments which remain undetected on political radar yet are going to have implications for our future. What emerged are recommendations for research projects which are supposed to be funded by the EU Commission. And an internet platform that could perhaps be termed a kind of “Research Wikipedia”. People all over the world exchange signals and ideas for the future via a new platform. Just like they do via Twitter etc. nowadays.
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Dr Rafael PopperResearch Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (UK)
Innovation Director & CEO, Futures Diamond (Czech Republic)[email protected] - [email protected]
Innovation RadarHow to track down future
developments?www.iknowfutures.eu
As a result, we need more systematic research & innovation efforts aimed
atmapping futures & interconnecting
knowledge
1st messageThere are many
“futures” around us…
weak signals
policiesvisions
scenarios
risks opportunities
innovationswild cards
strategies
Evolution of Mapping Futures Our Mapping Foresight work has
produced a vast amount of futures-related information unprecedented in the world
Our Mapping Foresight activities have been useful to understand foresight practices in Europe and other world regions
2005 2006 20072004
437 cases mapped
> 800 identified
767 cases mapped
> 1400 identified
100 cases mapped
846 cases mapped
> 1600identified
2008
> 1000 cases mapped
> 2000Identified
2009
Mapping Foresight
Key Lessons+
Findings
Introducingnetworking (SNA) and systemicanalyses
intoForesight
(Foresight Ark)
2010-2012
MappingForesight
&Forecasting
IntroducingWild Cards &Weak Signals
(WI-WE)systems
+Web 2.0 scanning
+Bottom-upEvaluation
InnovationSystems
Our Mapping Foresight report revealed the extensive use of interdisciplinary approaches in futures research
So we need more systematic activities aimed at
anticipating, recommending and transforming futures
2nd messageThere are many ways
of shaping our future…
impact assessment
horizon scanningforecasting
foresight
strategic planning visioning
NEW
Foresight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process
ManagementFramework
S.M
.A.R
.T.E
.R.
Polic
y/S
trate
gy
Cycle
(Pop
per, 2
011)
1 2
3 45
We often customise our methodologies, frameworks and systems to support a wide range of futures research & innovation
activities
3rd messageWe have some tools to
track down future developments…
NEW
MethodologyToolkit 44
meth
od
olo
gy
toolk
it
New web 2.0 futures toolkit
iCommunity
iLibrary iOracle
iDelphi iBank iScaniNews
www.iknowfutures.eu
So, how to track down futures
developments?
We need to encourage people to think differently!
McArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the
World
South
North
Germany is
here!
We need to use multiple interpretation and sense-
making frameworks
ass
ess
ment
S = Situation-bounded (time & context)
futurepast
Inte
rpre
tati
on &
Sense
-maki
ng
level of
unce
rtain
ty
What EMERGING / NEW issuesmay shape our future?
WIS4
issues
What RE-EMERGING issues may shape our future?
issues
WIS3
What issues may STOP shaping the future?
issues
WIS2
What issues may CONTINUE shaping the future?
issues
WIS1
today
WE
WE
WE
WE
We need to combine various Horizon Scanning Strategies
Horizon ScanningStrategy 1
ILTD
Horizon ScanningStrategy 4
OLBU
Top-DownIn
war
d-Lo
okin
g Horizon ScanningStrategy 2
OLTD
Outw
ard-Looking
Horizon ScanningStrategy 3
ILBU
Bottom-Up
YOUR AREA OF CONCERN
1,700+
players
1 2
3 45
iKnow’s participatory HS approaches
We developed a fully-fledged framework
and a Web 2.0 system for mapping futures
So far…
969 files for
unregistered users
vs.
1061 filesfor
iKnow members
1700+members
in 80
countries
By 9.2.2012
Since Feb 2011
New iKnowFutures proposal submitted to the EC
The iScan is an advanced
strategic intelligence, foresight and
horizon scanning search engine.
A kind of “Issues Google”
1,000+ issues mapped against EC FP7 Themes,
FRASCATI, NACE sectors andGrand Challenges
Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. abstractDescription7. manifestation8. potential implications9. importanceAnalysis10. filters11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly
strategies18. RTD & STI policy
relevance
Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. Abstract7. likelihoodDescription8. typology9. importanceAnalysis10. early indicators11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly
strategies18. RTD & STI policy
relevance
Mapping Weak SignalsMapping Wild Cards
18 criteria
Key facts and
figures
700+ respondents
60 60 900+ ISSUES.
4000+ assessments to
60 Wild Cards
2500+ assessments to
60 Weak Signals
Delphi results on September 2011
Wild Cards Delphi
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Wild Cards headline navigation panel
Comments & full preview
Description & Desirability
Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking
Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU
Potential impacts on(in Your Country & the EU)
1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems
PreparednessERA relevance
Policy advice
Current signals indicating WI plausibilityFuture signals indicating WI plausibility
Analysis & Submission panels
Issueassessment
platform (iDelphi)
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars
AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change
CAP Administration rather than results a priority
SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
NUC Development of new materials
ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
SPA Privatisation of space flights
NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace
SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"
NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating
CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars
CAP Administration rather than results a priority
SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security
ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform
ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world
ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications
AGR Bees be no more, less food than before
ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis
ENV Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles
HEA Increasing Self-Medication
Weak Signa
ls
Top 10
Weak Signals for
UK
40%match
Suicide bombing in Stockholm
Growing privatisation of war
Nuclear power plants built in third world countriesScientists predict mobile phone viruses will become a serious threat
No strict global rules on nuclear security
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures
Social welfare Economy
Security Policy & governance
Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems
Sec Pol
Sec Pol Eco
Sec Eco STISec
SecEnv
Ph-I
EcoVi-I
SoW
5 National Studies 44 Policy Alerts66 Expert Interviews
44 STI Policy Alerts => Research Recommendations
From farmer to consumer: Diversifying cropproduction and consumption.Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat) makes food production and consumption vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new wheat disease to develop it could have severe implications for food markets worldwide, which could have unforeseen consequences such as starvation, civil unrest and high food prices. There is a need to prepare for diversifying food production and consumption in order to avoid such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted in order to better diversify their crops and consumers should be made aware of a greater variety of food products…
21 Grand Challenges & 11 Thematic Priorities
New Horizon Scanning System delivering products & services which meet the needs of senior leaders and workforce planners in health & social care in the UK
Research Technology
DevelopmentNetwork
ed Innovati
on
CfWI Networked Innovation Approach
iDelphiiBank iScan iOracle
Horizon Scanning Workforce Analysis
Workforce Modelling
Scenario Generation
Visioning Planning
FutureRealisation
•Key trends and dynamics•Feed in to the scenario generation
•Robust analysis•Sustainable, affordable
•Desired & possible futures•Delphi to refine assumptions •Weak signals
• Numbers, trends, uncertainty•Suite of demand models•Sensitivity analysis
iB
iD
iS
iO
CustomisedProducts & Services
IT
SOLUTIONS
Two Final Remarks
We hope the EC will support our iKnowFutures proposal 2.5 Million Euro Focused on Grand Responses to Grand Societal Challenges 17 partners in 11 countries▪ UK, FR, GE, AT, CZ, SP, NL, CH, IL, RU, BR
Meantime, we will continue providing customised solutions to players willing to track down developments shaping their own futures…
thank you
References[click on the images]