Williamson - Regímenes cambiarios

8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios

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W P 0 8 - 3 F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 8

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Working Paper S e r i e s

Copyright 2008 by the Peterson Institute or International Economics. All rights reserved. No part othis working paper may be reproduced or utilized in any orm or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including

photocopying, recording, or by inormation storage or retrieval system, without permission rom the Institute.

Exchange Rate Economics

John Williamson

Abstract

T pp uz h u h hw g xhg dd, dvdg h ubj wh d h d d wh d h d . T dqu h d xd, d v bhv d, whh gz h h g xhgk ppud b bh ud d h pd. I gud h h p

uddg h g xhg k dvp g p pp h dg Duh d. Ep h h dp pg dvp pb hv d udvud . T pp ud b xg p xhg g.

JEL Cd: F31; F43; O24Kwd: Exhg ; bhv d; Duh d

John Williamson , w h P Iu, h b d wh h Iu 1981. Hw pj d h UN Hgh-Lv P Fg Dvp (h Zd Rp) 2001; v h Suh A h Wd Bk dug 199699; p PUvdd C d R d J (197881), Uv Wwk (197077), Mhu Iu hg (1967, 1980), Uv Yk (196368), d P Uv (196263); dv h

I M Fud (197274); d u h UK u (196870). H uh,uh, d, d uu ud d dvp u, udgReerence Rates and the International Monetary System (2007), Curbing the Boom-Bust Cycle: Stabilizing Capital Flowsto Emerging Markets(2005), Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What?(2004), dAter the Washington Consensus:Restarting Growth and Reorm in Latin America (2003).

Authors Note:A d h pp w ppd h Gwh C pd b h WdBk wh h W d F Hw Fud d h gv h Nhd,Swd, d Ud Kgd. T uh dbd pp g h Nw Yk Ap 2007, Rb Zgh, Hk H, Ed Bh, d h pp h Iud Eud d P E R d J, pu du Lu Sv, uu pvu d.


2/27

F dvp dd d h p xhg

dvp p. T k h vw h dvpg u w, d w k

, pp xp p pdu, wh dd p . T w dd

p ud b dud b duz (p ubu), bu h g dd d p gd w p . Adg dvu w uk b dvgu

(h Mh-L d w uk b d), h w p dpg xb

xhg p.1 Dvp p dd u h ,

vb k h xhg .

T w v udg h hg h d h d h Gwh

C k pp xhg . O u g h pdx

pd u h pvu pgph: I h p pd h w vd, h wud

(ud wk up) p h u hd u pb. N bv

h uh u d vb. Sd, B B hd g gud h h

udg h u h E A u hd b h p ug h h w

hd bu pv xhg . T du v h ud 1997 wh

h xhg b upv hv ddd h gu. Td, w

wd gzd h h udg h L A db h 1980 w h

hgh upv xhg h v h hd wd h pdg .

T vvud xhg w h h hd dud g u u d

dvp, d h w h h w hd b v h .

T xhg w gzd b dv k bw h u d h . Gv h v d xb p, h

xhg k dg h xhg h h d du . R xhg

u k dg b d h v gg d. Bu

h k, uh p h b dvd zg bh wh u d

xhg d hw gv h d wh xzg gwh hud

pph h u xhg d. T p pp p p (bu

p bjv ) uz h p hugh.

Gv p, v ppd h b dvpg u,

upg h uh w vhd h h xhg g h

du h dgd h pw d. I h v h h h

g h h djub pg, whh h xhg w () xd bu

1. T , ug u, h gv dvpg u hud k dvg gd ud vu, whh wud pv bh h b p d h d. T w d gzdd v ud p d.


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ud b hgd jup wh u ud ud dqubu, g

u whh ud xhg pg wud hv b phbv .

T dvg uh g h u xd xhg p pup wh

ug h xhg u dju wh dd. Bu h bpgv b p b ud d w bdd v wdpd g

( g h du u) 1973. A ub dvpg u xpd wh

v d g, bu h h b d h w

h du u dpg g . Idd, h w h

u ugh dp u (h g h w xd b

u dv k u bd) d hw d u. T u hg

xhg g h k up bw.

ExchangE RatE Economics today

Exhg p dvd uddg wh d h v, h

hg, g xhg . I w k gd h h xhg p h

dd v h u h udg k vu (b h dd

df u) wg hd, wh h xhg w vwd dd

v h wud qu h w dd d upp g xhg.2 I w d h

g xhg dpd up wh xpd hpp h uu h h xuv

wh w hppg h hppd h p. T xhg wd-kg p. I v h p h bhv h u u h b p, bu

h u u u h xhg wd-kg g z h w

u uu k. (O u, u u u dpd vg d v

hdu: Bh w d xhg dd uu g qubu

g. T v wd-kg g ud kw h u.)

Wh xhg xp h d h v g xhg

, hd gh up h pb d b gv h wh d h vu

u xhg . I u h h 1:1 hp bw h pu h

b gv pg x u xhg d h dp bw h

2. D h bugg u d w (, xp, Ev d L 2004) k w ? Y, bu d g u xpg h d xhg . T u h w d h k d xp xhg hg h b v h w d. I pub u, dd u ug u, h xhg hg w d w, bu h d xgu h whd h wg p d h h d xhg . T wh zd h ddu.


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k xhg d h h wud b bhd pv k, k pu

b gd gv ud kg db hd h uhgd.

Cv, gv h g hd xd xhg bu upd b h k

bg pb dg puv pu dd h h wud b gd g k. Nvh, gv g g xhg d udd

h wh whh d d, d xhg u h .

I uu hk w g wh dg h v g xhg . A

g vv d h d- v h (p-dd) xhg . Dug

h g, h u u x u b pg dw h g-u vu h

xhg . T w v wh d h g-u qubu vu: h pd

dw uqu b h puhg pw p (PPP) d, d h h qubu xhg

dpd vb k h k g d pduv. A d g vv

dju h xhg wd d- v. T dd d bu h h

pv g xp wh w hpp bw w d h g u. I pg

h g wgh xp, bd p gh, pv g, dd

xhg p p-Lu .

T uh g h wh bv h h wd w pd b h dg

h d, bu h k h pp xpud h v d d h b.

A ubqu h xp wh u bv b wg wh h d d wh

v pph pp pg. I gud h h bhv pph xpudd

pu b Pu D Guw dv . T x h pp x h u gwh d h xhg , whh h d ud Duh d d whh

dgu. I wd b h k h p p, pu h qu

g xhg g. T ubv k uz qu h

dd h.

thE standaRd modEl

I uggd bv h h dd pph dg h xhg b ubdvdd

xpg h g-u qubu d xpg h-u p qubu.

L u b dg h xp g-u qubu.

Lg-u qubu vd hzd b u u b

h uh kp h db (u v p, NIIP, whh

ud whp qu p w db) GDP . T bzd


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w-xzg v. F u wh ubjv du qu h wd

, h v wud b z. F u wh du hgh h h wd (..,

p h h h wd), h v wud b gv (h u wud b

db). F u wh du w h h wd , h v wud b pv(h u wud b d). T g h dp bw u du d

h wd , h g bu vu h d- NIIP/GDP. (A h u

h p h h u u, whh uzd Obd d

Rgf 1995.)

T g u d- NIIP/GDP, h g w b d- u u

b ( p GDP). Hwv, ug h h xd h gwh

d ,3 h hgh u u b h ud b hgh

p. T d b u v h d: .g., db u u h

u g d surplus d- qubu db v hgh d h u

u d bgg, d v h hgh v db.

Ah p h d- qubu h dpd

h v p. T v v PPP pv bw p g-u qubu

d h.4 T vw h v PPP hd bw p g-u qubu p

p h h h hk h dguh bw qubu p xuv ,

h hk h d d p. Ep vd ugg h

hg v PPP hd bw p g-u qubu u

v dvp (Rgf 1996). Bu h h wh hv d g-uqubu xhg hv udd g g vb

(.g., B-Qu . 2004) p h h hv g u h qubu

p.

O h bg dd wh h qu d qubu

d h hkg qubu hg h w hd h v

3. T d p vu b d wh h uqu h pp d d bw. I pb h pu p b w, bu h d b uppd h g xd h gwh . T pph dd h gwh up upd b h

g u (R 1928). A v dd pbb dh d d k pu bw (Mdh 2007).

4. I p d d pd gd w z d h p up w h vwh, PPP wud b qu p bg. Cv, h x p (whh p h dd gd) d df up p h bu PPP (qu h pv df u, upg b h xhg ) v hph, whh hd h puhgpw u vd b h pvg xhg h vwh. Ep, h hph h d w. Rv PPP (qu , vg v p uhgd) h d uh b, qubu d (Rgf 1996).


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g u, h p dvp p. M hv pd d

qubu u whh NIIP/GDP hgg hugh vhg d .

T p h h qu hw xp NIIP/GDP v dvp pd.

A d w w gv b h h h db (, xp, Kdbg 1958, 417).A u w pd h ud wd wud k d hg d hv w p k

p p, wud xp bw. I qubu p p wud vv u

u d d wd u, u whh wud gdu bud up

db v p (Sg I h db ). I du u h wd wud , bu h

wud b u u d db v p xdd h d upu d h

NIIP/GDP wud g bg gv (Sg II). A p u ud h g-u

qubu ( d ) h d, wh h NIIP/GDP hg d g gw

uh: T u u d pp GDP wud qu h db-

h gwh . I , p u wud udg uh g h db . I h

wud v u u upu h d upu xd db v, d

h NIIP/GDP wud d (Sg III). Evu NIIP, d h db-v p,

wud b pv (Sg IV). T d u d kd b NIIP/GDP

bzg pv vu, wh gv d b h f b p db v

(Sg V). (A xh g h db , wh gv u u h wud u d bk

Sg I, xpb h p h duh h p

h pduv pw hg.)

Hwv, h buk hzg h ud h h u, xpg h g-u qubu,5 h h h h h g-u qubu. T

u d h h whh u p p b, whh p h h

k u xp quz h u hdg df u, .., h h

df u b qu h xpd hg u h h.

T d uu d uvd p.6 Av, ud

xp d p p b h wd xhg u b qu h xpd uu

p xhg , h wd du pu u b qu h df. (I d-

qubu, u, xpd u b qu u.) Tu

df w u h xpd ph dju qubu. (T

5. A gd u dd xhg Id (1995).

6. I d p h p d, hugh h ug u h k u wh vd p, whh w u w-ug . Cvd p h pp h h df qu h wd pu du. Fu vd p wud w k p b d b bgg bw w u. I , ggg bg h vd vv kg puvk d d p xp b .


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df dvg xhg v w dvpd b Jh Md K h

wg h F Wd W, h d pd wdpd g xhg . T

pSd Wd W wk g xhg , p h dp gzd g,

vvd dvp h Mud-Fg d b Fg [1962] d Mud [1964].)T bg v p uddg h dvg h h-u bhv

g xhg , k h h dp gzd g 1973, w d b

Rudg Dbuh (1976) h vhg d. H w g h wh phzd h h

xhg hd b vwd p, wh vu wud b dd h k

v h wud du hd wg hd h udg k u. A uxpd

h k gv u wud du h w u

d , bu d pud v hd h d k u,

wud b h xpd d u b qu h uhgd wd .

T d wud b pb h u w h uu xpd appreciateu

qubu w d. Suh pp w u pb h u udw

u dp bd h whh wud hv bhd h /

(whh u b bhd h qubu). T w h u vhg.

A p v bdg h up p p b (Ku

1976). T v pph w dvpd uu h hph h df u

p ubu. Supp g h h udd uxpd h upp

pu u. O g, kw h h w qubu w vv dp

pp h h upp. Bu h h u h d upp hd u, v h u k. I h p w u

qubu, h d wd v wud hv d d w

g h p b wh qubu. S h wud b dp

h d u, whh gh gh vv vhg, bu whh h v wud

u u upu h wud bud g wd h qubu v.

Equbu wud b d wh h vu d hd b dd b

pvu v d h vu g hd b bu b u u upu.

Php h u u dp xhg d w h pvdd b

Rhd M d Kh Rgf (1983) h u d h p v

h h u h xg d. T qu-dud p h d h

xd ubud h p:

=

+ 1(-*) +

2(-*) +

3(

-

*) +

4(-*) +

5B +

6B* + u


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wh

= gh d p g u

-* = g US upp g upp

-* = g US g

-

* = h- df

-* = xpd g-u df

B = uuv US d b

B* = uuv g d b

u = dub .

A h d h d, whh xp h b xhg bw h Ud

S d g h u whh p u v h h wd, p 1

= 1, ..,

-dg hg v upp. T d Jb Fk (1976) d

Jh B (1978), whh u PPP h h u, w pd pg 4

= 5

= 6

= 0. T

Dbuh (1976) vhg d d Fk pp h d h duh k

(Fk 1979) w pd pg p p b d h 5

= 6

= 0, bu

wg hg h xhg p w gzd k. N h

h qu w d b z h d Hp d M (1982). I p

d xhg hphzd b h p d ju dud, h wud xp

5

d 6

b g df z.

T g h M/Rgf pp h d wk upd h xhg d dd h hz (up ). T x xv h

p u. Hwv, h d h pp h xhg d h

w b u p z. T h w d d dud pu h

d h ud h-u PPP ( Fk 1976). Ep vd hd d

vwhg jd h d wh uu PPP h-u d xhg

bhv, h h M/Rgf pp w hwg h h-u u h h

w d.

S h u j h uv w dvdg h u g-u qubu

d h-u pph qubu. I d dp h pu vw h xhg

b udd b hugh uu d p dw h xhg b pg

v d7 h u u v-g dv PPP (whh d w

7. A v d qu vg h g u, u u Pz g bg h h pu. (I u h p w w p b h u h g, h u Pz g w d v hz, hugh kw h u vu bw up. A v d xud u h d b.)


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dug h u u). F xp, pp (B . 2007) dbg w-

v d (NGEM h N Iu E d S

Rh Ld) :

I uu pu h g h g xhg k k wd, d xpbu d h v h f h vu h u. T bgqu h b xhg

b w

=

+1(1 +

)/(1 + h

)(1 + p

)

wh h

h h,

h h p u, d p

kpu. [I p bg ud h h h h u k h h p

u.] Exhg hg bu h hg.

I h d ju pd, h Dbuh d u p p b d

h p p = 0, wh p d p z vu h k pu. Pd hphz h h k pu dbd .

PRoblEms with thE standaRd modEl

T v d uzd bv hv v p p. I h p, h

bd h up h xhg pd hg h ud.

Cv, h pd h h xhg w hg h w v

hg. Ju wh vb b dd ud dpd up h pu d, buh M/Rgf ud wud ugg h upp d v wud qu ud

d, d h , xpd , d d b wud qu ud

d. Rx h up p gh wud d wh dd

h d d pduv, u vu h vb hg pp

h p vu. O h h hd, h ggd vu xhg hg ugh b

pb g uu xhg hg.

A d p h dd d h b d b hvg gd

wh h ud p , d pdg uu xhg h b. I ,

h uwhh u xpg p d h xhg wud

. T u, d , u h pp w b M Fd (1953). T

v d d h pb bubb-d-h d, whh h xhg

d uh d uh ud vu b k d, u p u

v pd h v qubu.


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0

A h p h vd h g u p vd. T w

u hgd b h M/Rgf ud, hugh h h ud wh

u. M h dg p h vwhg u ud

h d, hugh Guh d R (2005) hw h ddg h xhg dud hg wh h u u u p dg h-u b h xhg .

D Guw d Gd (2006, 4) h h xhg bw h d

d h duh k/u v 19932003 wh h v h h gh hv

b xpd h b hg h bvu ud. (N h v d gu

bw h g xhg wg h hk d h d hg

xhg g h du u h w dd dju h hk.

Bu h u h d h g w dpb dju h hk.)

M h v d g xhg u h d xuv,

hugh d h, bu h g h u pd. M

h d bu hv udd h h d b h h h k

p. T wud b pb xhg w pdd b h p

dd d.

Exhg hv qu b vvd hg h k k bubb-d-h

d: h w pp h d 198085 d p 198587; h p

h d dg up pk 200102; h pud pp wg h

Mg Th pw d pd p A W w ppd h dv

d hd uh h C;8

h pk Mh 1995; d .T u pb: T v xhg d p u. I ,

hwv, p bv h h dpd b p u, bu b h

vb up h. D Guw d Gd f h h dd p h

v d, whh h bhv h. I d gudd h bhv

u h pd, bu h h uu h xpd b v

h uh, g Fk d F (1986).9 T , h g xhg k ppud

b g wh u w p u g xhg : ud d h. T

ud u ud b pp k u wh bv h, b p , xhg

w d v h g-u qubu v. T (w) xhg h b

8. A W pud hv d bvu : h h pud w vvud. Bu hg h d b wh g pu d Mg Th w ugh pud h k dg hvvu.

9. I Sh d Su (1990) h pd b d, wh du pd w pd, bu hd dpd h wh bgu, wh ud hugh h d hp bu h vv ug k.


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xp, k (REEM) d.10 Ch pp wh xp

xhg hg h g- uu. T d hg

xhg . A pu h g xhg k d bhv h

ud h, bu h h v h pp ud xhg h d h h v bhv h b pb. T h bw h w

u bu v h h u h p , bu bu h

budd , .., ub udd h wd u px bu d d

p bu phb u hub. T h h h dd

u h vg h bd.

T d D Guw d Gd bd hgu d. S u b

gd b pg hgu pv d (Bh d v Wp

2006). T g g d bw hg h ud d hg

h bvd k p. I uh d hgh-d xp (K u bu )

.

Ev whu dug h p hgu , D Guw d

Gd ub v h d . Id h u h d v hud

d bh pp. T dg :

1. Exhg hg uu dd hg h ud, hugh h

xhg isgd wh ud vu.

2. I k u , h h u d b pb h ud u. (I b wh bw h u.)

3. Exhg hg hv (g h w-pbb v hpp uh

qu h h wud u w dbud dg dbu.)11

4. T xhg , bu updb, dd ud vu d

d vvd bubb-d-h d.

I h wd, h d wh h bu xhg k, udg

h h hud u u b h wh dh h p d.

10. Ad w gh, u g u, bu h u u p h w w k .

11. T 2007 h ud uh d hdg ud g h wud hv d h b vb.


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dEvEloPmEnt stRatEgy and dutch disEasE

Duh d bd bv wh hppd h Nhd wg h

dv d g- xp u g h 1970. T xp u g vd h hhb Hd, whh d h p d xp gd h h u g.

T h h dud h xp w pp h xhg . T h

h uug xp ud b pp du bud xp g

w hu b kw Duh d.

E hv v dbd whh Duh d hud b dd dgu

d b vdd b p u whv pb, k gd u h hud b

jd h h d. T vw g bd h pb xp-d gwh hvg

d b dvp E A. O h d h u h g

h w b dbd h pv xhg . Bg xp w

h ud pp wud up h p d ( w gud) wud hu

upp h p dvp.12 A u h dvp uu h du u h

gvg gd vg dd wh ppu h u hp u h

b w xp.13 Mg pv xhg h p bg w

-xpg hu gdd pud v. M L A u

d kp h xhg pv wh p w b vb h 1990,

u whh h p h ud d bz w pd b

dvp xp du. A hwd pv xhg .T vw h dvp b pd b kpg h xhg udvud w

u. O, dd , whh d hw h b phd. T h h h

hugh whh hgh pv xhg wk f.14 A v d h p h

b uug du, bu h u h h w bhd. M

d uh hv uggd h pu vu xp du, bu h bd

g-b-dg, hv p h wd k, d xhb h

hg d. Hwv, p d uh b xp du

hv b pg. I h b gud h udvu d vg, hugh

h vw wud b h h u u d dud b vvud pvd

12. Duh d b ud b xv p w, uh d.

13. N h h pp u, h xp bg h wh ppu v h vu h u u. F xp, ugg h h z Kuw d Abu Dhb w b b v vb uu h d h h w vg g p h pd.

14. T u dud B Ehg (2007) pp w h Gwh C.


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g vg hgh v. A w pp D Rdk (2007) gu h h b

vdg Duh d p , bu g h v p db

db d h w h pg u du g h

db gg x. Ah vw (whh I d h) hd h h ppb g xp-d gwh : vd gwh

bg -dg bu h h p . T vw ugg h Duh d

pb dud b b h u u b uub bu h g

p uh udvud wud b p v w b. M h wh

w bu Duh d wud h v h h udd, h p

qu .

Hwv, v vw pv g .15 T vw h

h vu w xp ju k h : I g h ppu

vb d d d hud h b wd k h pv h

d ( dd pv pduv). Nu uxpd pv w

g d d h pd p dvp, d xp h wh

h hk vv d xp g h w uu vv u h z h

h xp . A pp h u d w du uh du h z

h xp du, whh vb qu h wd u h

dd d hgh up d vg dd. Ad h dd

p vw wud b h h gh w bg bu uh pp v

pp, whh g xhg wud w u. M wud xph h u g xhg wud dd pp.

E, h h ju d, vd u h qu bgg

b vb. T ud k whh h w vd h vvu

dg gwh w h Rz d C (1999). Dg h qubu xhg 16

h whh wud b p w p xb, h udd h h w dd

p vd gv hp bw g d gwh. Pd, Rj, d

Sub (2006) udd h h p vd h vvu h gwh

dvpg , hugh h d vd h h u dvpd u.

15. A gd xp h dd vw pvdd b Cd (2002).

16. T w d h xhg h u ( dd h v L A vu Ag-Sx u whh w xp xhg ). O d, g h du ud ud IMF pub, h v p w upu, q

A/p

A q

B/p

B. T v d, whh

h p pdug u d wd ud pu L A, h v p db h p db, p

/p

N. Ep h w v u gh h h h bw

h bg u h h u, hugh df d h pduv db vu db du d p dvg h g .


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Rdk (2007) d Bh (2007) g h h vd hw h gwh dpd vdg

vvud xhg , bu h gu h udvu hpu gwh. T u

ud h u h Agu d Cd (2006). Dg h qubu xhg

-u g wh g , pduv, d, d gvpdg dpd vb, h ud g dd -u gwh

g. T ud dp h uu u wh p d vg, h upu

gp, du, dph k, d, , d u . Ug v

df u g, h ud h h gv d g hp

bw gwh d g h u h . Hwv, h u dv

p b g g: Idd, h v b p ( xzg gwh) pp

b smalludvu.

O pu g p u Agu d Cd (2006, 2021) h gv

hg h xhg hv df f gwh dpdg whh

qubu ph. I h xhg w pp b 10 p u

b (p) d, h u p h h gwh wud b xpd .

Bu h pp ud bu h gv d h xhg h

dg p pvd h wh h bu dd

bup h, h h u ppd v h h u h dg p,

h h xhg wud b gd d gwh wud b xpd d. Wh

ud z h df p? Pub df judg b h pv h

p h hg. I h qubu xhg ppd, pu ud xp db d h u h dud pb pdug

db gd. Wh h pb vg h xpb gh d ju

wud hpp wh pp h pd g, h wud b f b h d

pb vg h db . Mv, h wud b h

p . I , wh pp u g, h ug p hg

k b vd d h uk du uh d v db. Bu

bu pu b d wh h p hg w b vd, h wh

v uh xp h, bu pj wud b h qubu

xhg . O p h h dg h h p bg puud w d . (N h

h df wh h xp h u xp-d gwh h

w d bv.)

Supp k h vd bvg h Duh d dd pb dug

gwh. Wh p d bu ?


15/27

T v vw h p pb dg . M xhg w ,

whh h h p wp. I v h h uh d g d

u h xhg u h g h xhg , bu p

v d v d f hg h xhg .Hw vg h dd vw? Cd h g xhg . I

u h h xhg pvu p u? Supp h h xhg h b

b g u p pv h d p w. T

dd h gv p v hv uh f: I gu h v

wk b pdg uu hg p (h gg h), b hgg h

v upp df (h p h), d h bh h h h

wk. I , h bhv h gu h v p h

wd ug ud dg g d h w h wgh ud

h k. Tk p p u vdg h g g

h ud b h jupg bdwg.

I ghg h xhg ud b p hg, h w pp

h g-u qubu xhg . T Agu-Cd u h h d d u

. Duh d wh h ghg h xhg p.

Uu h v g ub whh h uh

qu u whh ghg h xhg b gdd

p p. T du qu wh d uh . I h uh uh

hk p d u u b p, h w w g d pub dd db dju h . I h p d ubqu vd,

h h w b du h gwh . I wud b db hv h p

u h ud b dpd d h puh v wh vdg

pp h xhg h d b vd du u.

T vg ju p bd h b h h pvd

uh u. T w qu h pup h encajeud Ch h 1990. T encaje

w qu h 30 p h vu qu p w hud b dpd

bg u h C Bk pv h u h bugh

wh h w. (A v w g h bg w p x wh p vu

h h w.) T h b xv u, Ch, dug whh h

encajew fv dug h p w g h dpd h Ch

uh ( wd, hugh uv, dd h w fv ghg h u

Ch g db). Muh h u d h encaje fv. I vw h uf


16/27

h ud pb g gz h gv encaje b ud b h uh

h h d , du h p w, b h

w, bu h h x h u pup uvb h h. O h uh

hd w h u h d d uh h w hud xp gqu wh h encaje dpd vb hw g p w

qu. T b g pb wh h uh hvg

ud h d d df w df w h hvg d

d (whh w h p h ).

M u hv pd h p , h F

Wd W. A h B Wd w k gd h h u

u wud b whh p wud b pd. A h dubd h

p w fv, bu uh dub dd . Hwv, pp b Rhd

Cp (1999) bd g vd h h p ud b dvpd u hd

d fv u h w bhd p h d gdu h 1960 d pd

up Mg Th pw B 1979, d w pd wh h

Eup U vd h d g u 1990. Nwd dvpd u

h p , h pu du h.

N uh b d dvpg u. I g h w pd wh

w ghd, h dd w dpd, h 1960 d 1970 h

L A. Bu ubqu v hv wd v df u df u. A

w (k Hg Kg) vd h w p u bz d hv d h. Su (k Ag) hv -d bw b d D . Oh (k

Ch, Cb, M, d Td) hv pd p pu . Sv

u (k Ch d Id, d php Bz) hv d , hugh wh

d wd bz. Oh bzd ( h 1990, wh h w

ph h vd bz) d h ghd pd

ubqu, v wh p hgd h A .

I L A, h w db bz h db hd b v.

Ag h j u, Ag, Mx, Pu, d Vzu bzd h h h

1990. I , Ch d Cb bh d w b pg encaje, ud

Ch bv. T h b db bu Cb, bu w judg h bh h

h w b fv. Bz d w, bu f hv g

b judgd u. T uu p b h h gu w xv px

d hgd qu p vw h ph h Bz

k.


17/27

M A u hv hd p g h pp hv b fv. Ev

h Sgp, whh ud hgh b, h M Auh Sgp

hd h gh phb g bwg Sgp d d pu h h

A 1997. (I bdd h b h p h b d gwh h Ud S 2003.) Ch d Id hv udk v gdu bz,

d hv dv vg p p d p (hugh bh w

updd vg g v udk g). Id bzd (1973),

uh h xp gdd pud, bu pb h A

1997. M d Td bh hv g h, hvg bzd bu h pd

d d p w (d, h M, uw). K

ud g pu bz p h p g h Ogz

E Cp d Dvp (OECD) h d-1990, d d h k

pdg b bzg h- bu g- p w. I p h b

h A xp h 1990 h bud h A p u

bz: I h h pd bw h A u h ufd

d h h wd ud p w ( ud h- w) h

pdg pd.

Wh h u gh b pb g uwd pp h

xhg gd ? O d dguh bw pp ud b u

u p d p w h b p. Ab g u u p

ppp hd ud h u. I h pup h h w b vd v hbu , bz udgd w v, hugh h

d b qud v d hv bw b h ppp du. Hwv,

h uk Nw d Kuwh wh vd pdg h

u u p v h . T u uh vv vg wh

ud, g b hd ud h u. S uuh h Nwg u whh h h

u g pd h gd b h dw dd d

h v h b p, pub b bg pd h gv. T hd

g- ud h u, d pvdd h k d xp h b dd

b h gv h w hv p h v h xhg . T , hwv, b

pu du vdg Duh d d p, h uk u

vg p bg k up h pd vg wh ud. Php h b u

dg pu pg h u h d pd bu pd gd, h

g vd d dg Duh d (whh bud hpp p h

d ud d ).


18/27

Supp x h h pb ud b p w h pv p. T

v uu u h hv h f dugg p w, k qug bk

hd hd u p d qug hgh v g g u h bk

xd h dd . Hwv, h u h hud b pd pv h h , d u h p-pg u d uf h u

h pb. O hd w u vg uh gu d u h

p w bzg w v h u h bu . T v h encaje

ug p w bzg w .

Ch pd pb h 1990: I pd x vd h z p w

v h encaje. T x ud hv pd h encajeh h bg fd

v. Ah pb p df x ( uhg) d

b d. T pp h h pd: Swzd pd df x

h dg d h B Wd d dug uwd p w. I pvd

fv, whh hd upg, pu p p hg fd g

wd h ud b f b h w p. Supg php

p d b dv pu du17h h b du

h pp . I ud b fv h p v gd

g h w ud h djub pg.

Policy imPlications

Wh h p pgdg bh h h xhg g d hw

p g p h xhg dd b h bhv d

D Guw d Gd h h b h p dd h?

I d p gdg h d dp () xd xhg . I

u h xd b xhg gd d ud h p

d. I hg h h h I fd g (W 1991,

39596):

1. T d p, h h d bg bbd gu dg h d u pu u .2. T buk d udk wh h dg p() wh u p pg.3. T u wh puu p h w u

wh h h u wh u p pg.

17. S d d h b dbd g wh h b . I wud b hpb p h x uhg.


19/27

4. T u ppd dp u g h w u ud db h xd . T b b bhd b p bkwh u bd.

T p whh dp p v g. T dd dugg h h gd d: T w b b ud vu (

h wud b w gd b h gv), d w h uh h

uh d bu . T bhv d hg bh p h pp. I ud

h puv u u gh g d h v p

dd g.

N, hwv, h h p d wh u ud pp p h

wud b uw dp g h gu g h k, k h

b bu djub xhg . T hg h h ugg h h wud u

h gu g xhg h w wd ud h B Wd , 199293

wh h w-bd Eup M S (EMS), uu dvpg u h

hv ud g h xhg ud h djub pg. I gd gg h h

h ud b vdd b v hg h xhg pd wh d

d h hg dd. T gh hp h w ud, bu h k wud

h g wg hg h xhg quk, d wud b g

pu . I p f vd xhg hg h pv -dvd h

hv vd p d h h xhg gg b hgd, d bd

uh f w u xhg hg h b wh h b hdgh hv bu. T b w hp d h z d du h ug g.

T h bw gd d ugd g, d vu d

g, whh v h BBC18 g whh h B h C b. 19 A

ud d whh pubh xhg () h w h uu h w

b d. T pp gu v ug uh hd g h db g

wud u gg h hp h pu g xb,20 hugh wud hv h

f g h d gv. Vw df hp whh h b

. Hwv, pp h wd h uh hv db wh h k xhg

18. I h x BBC d bk (h p xpd bk u h h g u),bd (h xhg wd uu bd ud p), d w (p hg fd p h h d jup).

19. T d Bbd ud, h g b gd g.

20. S Kug (1991) h pp h dvpd h gu.


20/27

0

, whh d h gu ug bd. T h h dud

gd vu ugd g.

T v gug h ud b h h h p pd b d

ugd g, h u d g. Mg d.Cu h qu v pug h xhg , whh bdd

bhv. T vd h pg h p uh bd w bhg

h db bk gh. C bk w qu h pu h

dv d w qu h , wh h h u du

p h wh gg .

O ud udd h g kg z- d, h d, xhg

bhvd pd h dd d. Bu h wh d k u h

pg vd h h d vd dp bhv. A p wh gd

xhg dpb. T pb h h pd d hw xhg

gh b gd. T g h h ud p d h, kg vd

wh gdd pu dubg u, d h vg hd h

pub ud, bu wh pub u h d bg ugh. Ad p

d g hv uggd w pp:

() Leaning Against the Wind: Iv hud w k v, wg h v

h . (T w uggd b Pu W [1958].)

(b) Reerence Rate Proposal: Iv hud v puh h xhg w

gd . (T w ppd b Eh d Bd [1975] d

h ubj W [2007].)

I bv h h ddvg u xhg g h pp

g g, du g h pp, whh wud phb

g xhg v h w dg g w h h w

gg g. Hwv, h b d h D Guw d Gd (2006, 15962) d

h v d b h pp wud b fv ubg g. (T d

pu v h d pp. M ju h h wud b v bzg.)

Adp h pp wud qu g h

xhg (pub fv xhg ) h w v . T

gh b uudd b bd wh whh v w phbd. Fuh w, v

wud b pd (pvdd w dgd puh h h ppp d) bu wud

v b qud; h pp gd g, d wud b


21/27

wh h d g qu v. Oh w gg h xhg (.g., hugh

g h hgg p ) ud b dpd h pp

v (udg v, k jwbg).

T bg u h pb ug g . I ph p u: W u b ppd g v hugh h

ubh h d dqubu ? T hp h h b

bg kp h h w k uh g b. Bu p

h u. I p h hd u dg qubu xhg

(IMF 2006), h Fud ud h uh hd, whh d h M B

Apph, h Equbu R Exhg R Apph, d h Ex Sub Apph.

T Ex Sub Apph v h M B Apph,

whh b dd wh u u u h w h

xg NIIP/GDP , h h pg u u g d h h judgd

h udg p w. Bu h v w dpub df hd. I h d

d u, h w dd g d h h h b

ug g , d h h IMF p h h p

d b u gh . Uu h IMF p pubh h

hdg h ud wk, d h ub judg whh h

j h b.

I g w hvd, h ud h h bg

h u wud b v, hw g xhg , w h wudpuh h w h gd . T wud b g xhg

h h u hv bg hd h pu v. T wud

h b wh uh u h p wd gg.21 Bu h

h h wud b pubhd h hd vd d wud gv h

pv k wh h wd bvd qubu b, d wh xpd g

h du , d wud pvd b pub db bu h qubu xhg .

Aug h h gd w ppd Duh d, hud b

u pp ud b p xp b p w ug.

21. I gg w puud b h vwhg j u h hv dpd d b p h wh d g. I h b dpd wd bu wk. C whp pzg v upu gwh hv d , u h bv v Php uv v h g u. A p gg p kg u p

whv up bv h g up (NAIRU). I gg hub gdd p v kg u b.


22/27

N h wh gu h h wud d b , d

wud h b h h j u, dd h d h dvpg

u d gg k. I wud pv h hvg xd xhg (b whh

uu djub pg), BBC g, h dd h wh h w, g h g h . Bu h x dd g

h u (h ) wud k h dd h xhg . I

b h uu v uh fv h u v (.g., Fk

d Dguz 1993), pub bu hw h h uh bh d g h

d whh h hud v. O h g wud xp h gd

wud d h uh ddg ud g. Ad wud f u h

hv udd h p b h b g p h p wh hd g

hv g whh vh vdd vg h xhg p h d

h k.

I pu, wud k dd g vvu d h h Duh

d. I wud ph h b g h p wh d

v, bu b ugg h u d k v dd

u. T wud b qu bu h g pp v ppvd b h

, d wud h xp w . S wud d h u

whh h u xhg wud b pb h u,

d wud h ug h u ppp d.

T dd gu g g (.g., Cv d Rh 2000). S uhv hgh dg b dz, whh h g dp b g

b v . Ipv whh h hw up bk, h p ,

h pub , j pb h . Gv k vd h

du b vdg dvu. I d dju p w p,

h wud u dd gu pg h u . Bu h

p, h u dvu f h dju d u. Ppg h

vb uk b hpu.

T h pp h fd h bu gz bu p xhg

g h b pb dw. T h pp h bu p b

wh dvp b g p g xhg

u b h. (Cu h h d xd xhg u

xp: Wh u dvpd, b h bp h w b vd.) Dvpd

u ( p u ); gg k w hv dpd g ,


23/27

hugh gd g ; dvpg u hv djub pg. T

dv h k d h, bu k u h h v g

b gg ugh up puv . T h h v gd g k

hg p.

additional REsEaRch

T bvu qu pkd b h pdg uv whh dd h

dd, bu wh h wk h d b d d h ug d pub. N,

wud b x uu bhg h gh h h quv

gu dd b IMF h qubu xhg w b pubhd. Cp

h dd b h M B Apph d h Equbu Exhg R

Apph wud h b pb, whh u h . Ad h b h u x

p xpg h h R R Pp.

S I d gd xhg bg w d dw b h, I dub h u

vg u xhg dg. Wh h h uvd bv k dgg

d u wk dg h u h dg pd b Duh d. T u

p dd uv wk h . Bu Rdk (2007) p .

concluding REmaRks

Exhg k bg p wd h 1970, wh h w d h g

xhg k w pd b d h gzd h h xhg p h

dpd xp h uu. Bu h p h v k h x p pg

d whh v ud bv h hv p uddg hw h

wk (h REEM d) b h gz dv g b d hugh p. Suh

dD Guw d Gd bhv dx. I h pp (uk h

dd d) h pp b wh h bu g xhg k. I

hgh h h b h w hk bu h d

xhg .T v d h p p bu h w whh w hk xhg

p. Id h dz z- uggd b h dd d, p h

pb d vu gg xhg . T d ( g) xg xhg ,

vg h djub pg, bdg gg g xhg . Bu d


24/27

h h IMF hud p h du gg xhg d h

bg b-u p ud puh w h. Wh

h ud b u h h wud v pb Duh d h h h

pb xp-d gwh, wud hp u vd vvu h h p . T php h j bu h xhg p

b k h p gwh. I p: Bu h vd h vvu

hu dvp w u g bg d p, udg d p

u bz wh pp k h vvu.


25/27

REfEREncEs

Agu, Av, d C Cd. 2006. T Ef R Exhg R Mg E Gwh. C Bk Ch, Sg. Php.

Bh, Phpp, d E v Wp. 2004. Hgh Od Exp A Pg. WkgPp 04.03. Gz: Sw N Bk, Sud C Gz.

B, R, Dw Hd, d I Hu. 2007. Cg US Ib. Pp pd P Iu I E, BRUEGEL, d K Iu IE P wkhp p du h gb b, Whg, Fbu 89.

B-Qu, Ag, P Du-Vg, A Lhh-Rv, d V Mg. 2004.Bud Shg d Exhg R Mg Wh h Gup w. I Dollar Adjustment:How Far? Against What?d. C. Fd Bg d Jh W. Whg: Iu I E.

Bh, Suj S. 2007. T A N Gwh M. Pp pd h I MFud, Augu 21.

B, Jh F. O. 1978. T M Apph h Exhg R: S Evd. IMF StafPapers25: 4875. Whg: I M Fud.

Cv, Gu, d C M. Rh. 2000. Fear o Floating. NBER Wkg Pp 7993.Cbdg, MA: N Buu E Rh.

Cp, Rhd N. 1999. Shud Cp C B Bhd? Brookings Papers on Economic Activity1:

89125. Whg: Bkg Iu.

Cd, W. Mx. 2002. oo Sensational: On the Choice o Exchange Rate Regimes. Cbdg, MA: MIP.

D Guw, Pu, d M Gd. 2006. Te Exchange Rate in a Behavioral Finance Framework.P, NJ: P Uv P.

Dbuh, Rudg. 1976. Exp d Exhg R D.Journal o Political Economy84:116176.

Ehg, B. 2007. T R Exhg R d E Gwh. Pp ppd h

Gwh C, pd b h Wd Bk wh h W d F HwFud d h gv h Nhd, Swd, d Ud Kgd.

Eh, Wd, d Ahu I. Bd. 1975.Managing the Managed Float. P E I F 112. P, NJ: I F S.

Ev, M, d R. L. 2004.A New Micro Model o Exchange Rate Dynamics. NBER WkgPp 10379. Cbdg, MA: N Buu E Rh.


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Fk, Jf A. 1979. O h Mk: A T Fg Exhg R Bd R I RDf.American Economic Review69: 61022.

Fk, Jf A., d Kh A. F. 1986. Uddg h US D h Egh: T

Exp Fud d Ch. Economic Record62: 2438.

Fk, Jf A., d Kh Dguz. 1993. Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Work?Whg: Iu I E.

Fk, Jb A. 1976. A M Apph h Exhg R: D Ap d EpEvd. Scandinavian Journal o Economics78: 20024.

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Hp, P, d Jh M. 1982. Fuu h D: A Md N d R

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Kdbg, Ch P. 1958. International Economics. Hwd, IL: Rhd D. Iw, I.

Ku, P J. K. 1976. T Exhg R d h B P h Sh Ru d hLg Ru: A M Apph. Scandinavian Journal o Economics78, . 2: 280304.

Kug, Pu. 1991. g Z d Exhg R D. Quarterly Journal o Economics106, 3:66982.

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Obd, Mu, d Kh Rgf. 1995. T Ip Apph h Cu Au.I Te Handbook o International Economics: Volume 3, d. G. M. G d K. Rgf. Ad:

Nh-Hd.

Pd, Ew, Rghu Rj, d Avd Sub. 2006. Foreign Capital and Economic Growth.Whg: IMF Rh Dp.

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Rz, O, d Su M. C. 1999. R Exhg R Mg d Gwh. I TeEconomics o Globalization: Policy Perspectives rom Public Economics, d. A. Rz d E. Sdk.Cbdg: Cbdg Uv P.

Rdk, D. 2007. T R Exhg R d E Gwh: T d Evd. HvdUv, Cbdg, MA. Php.

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Williamson - Regímenes cambiarios