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Lebanon – wheredemography is the core ofpolitics and lifeArnon SofferPublished online: 06 Dec 2006.

To cite this article: Arnon Soffer (1986) Lebanon – where demography isthe core of politics and life, Middle Eastern Studies, 22:2, 197-205, DOI:10.1080/00263208608700659

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Lebanon - Where Demography is the Core of Politicsand Life

Arnon Soffer

The governmental structure and the intercommunal relations in Lebanonhave been based effectively since 1943 on the first and only populationcensus in the history of Lebanon. As a result of this census, the politicalrelationships in the state are based on a ratio of 6:5 in favor of the Christians.In effect, there are six Christian members of the government for each fiveMuslims. This structure is also translated into parliamentary representation,in which the Maronite Christians have 30 representatives, other Christiangroups 24, Druzes six and Muslim groups 39. The structure also spills overinto the allocation of senior governmental positions in which the president isa Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of theparliament a Shiite Muslim.

Notwithstanding all the wars and the demographic changes that havetaken place in Lebanon, the 6:5 ratio has been retained (up to May 1984, atleast) and continues to determine the internal political structure of the state.

Because of the fears of the Lebanese Christians that they lose the slightmajority they have held in the political structure of the state, they have takenseveral means to maintain the status quo. Since the 1932 census, no othercensus has been taken and all the statistics relating to the state are simplyestimates. Secondly, the only statistics published by the government ofLebanon since the Second World War (Table 1, Column II) relates to thepresent residents of Lebanon and other Lebanese not resident in Lebanon;in other words, they include Lebanese living abroad, usually Maronite andother Christian groups. They do not include such current inhabitants ofLebanon as the Palestinians and others.1 As a result of this special situation,Lebanon lacks statistics and those that exist should be treated with con-siderable doubt.

In this survey, we attempt to summarize three problems:

the size of Lebanon's population;the size of the various groups in Lebanon;the population distribution within Lebanon.

The Size of Lebanon's PopulationTable 1 presents various statistics which are based in part on official statisticsof the government of Lebanon, partial surveys carried out in various yearsand statistics appearing in the professional literature. The statistics areanalysed in the context of other contradicting statistics published during thesame time period (see notes).

In conclusion, the population of Lebanon in 1983 was 2.7 millions. Ofthese, some 2.4 millions were Lebanese, some 220,000 Palestinians with

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198 MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES

TABLE 1LEBANON'S POPULATION IN SELECTED YEARS

Year

18651913193219451950196019701974197919801983

Sources: see

IPopulationof Lebanon

(withoutaliens andLebanese

abroad

2662

4152

7983

1,1374

1,2575

1,640s

2,1268

2,350"2,26015

2,40016

IIPopulationof Lebanon(with Leba-nese abroadand without

aliens)

_--_

l,6206

2,110*2,7876

2,78412

2.65815

Notes 2-17 as indicated.

IIIThe Palestinians

in Lebanon

1287

1401769

20013

21515

22017

IVI + III

1,3851,7862,3022,5502,470

2,620

VPresent

Population ofLebanon (I +

III + otheraliens)

2,72110

3.10014

2,60015

2,700

approximately another 80,000 foreigners. This population represents areduction of some 400,000 over the 1974 figure before the outbreak of civilwar. In other words, in addition to the potential natural growth of thispopulation, there was a very high outmigration. Many Lebanese and Pales-tinians either emigrated or were killed, and most of the foreign residents ofLebanon who lived there in the 1950s and 1960s during the boom years left.The figures showing 400,000 to 500,000 Palestinians are grossly exaggeratedand were designed apparently for political purposes.

The Size of the Various Groups in LebanonThe key to understanding Lebanon's frequent crises and its fragile existenceis its confessional or sectarian structure. The primary division is betweenChristians and Muslims, but the belief that the two religious groups areuniform entities has been refuted many times.

The sectarian structure, more than any other issue, is the most sensitive inthe country, and therefore, it is very difficult, almost impossible, to get up-to-date statistics on the various groups.

Table 2 presents the size of the groups in different years collected fromavailable sources. What the sources are, how reliable they are, and how thedata for 1983 were calculated, are in the next comments.

The Geographical Distribution of Population in LebanonThis question is hidden behind a mist of conflicting official figures. Table 3presents various figures producted by researchers or by the government of

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DEMOGRAPHY IN THE LEBANON 199

TABLE 2

COMMUNAL BREAKDOWN IN LEBANON

I II III IV1932 1956 1983 1983

Population % Population % (in Lebanese %(in thousands) thousands) (in thousands)

V1983

Lebanese %Palestiniansand aliens

(in thousands)

Christians

Maronites

GreekOrthodox

GreekCatholic

Armenians

Other (in-cluding Jews)

Muslims

Sunnis

Shiites

Druzes

410^246

226^378

76522

45999

31156

30,191

383,180

175,925

154^08

53,047

793426

51.7

28.6

9.6

5.8

3.9

3.8

48.3

22.2

19.4

6.7

100

787

424

149

91

79

44

624

286

250

88

1411

55.6

30.0

10.5

6.5

5.6

3.0

44.4

20.0

18.0

6.4

100

777

204

124

80

78

770

695

187

2915

965

580

175

100

70

40

1435

600

655

180

2400

39.8

24.1

7.3

3.8

3 .0

1.6

60.2

25

27.5

7.7

100

990

580

185

115

70

40

1710

875

655

180

2(7O0

36.6

21.0

6.8

4.2

2.6

1.5

63.4

32.5

24.2

6.7

100

Sources: Column I is based on the only official Lebanese population census, in 1932, aspresented by de Vaumas.18 Doubts exist as to the reliability of these figures but they are the onlyfigures which can be trusted as regards the intercommunal division. As noted above, thepolitical division of Lebanon, which maintains a 6:5 ratio in favor of the Christians, is based onthe result of this census.Column II was presented by Hudson." He also casts doubt on the reliability of the figures. Werefute these figures for the following reasons: Any official publication of the Government ofLebanon should be held suspect as they usuallly exaggerate the Christian population.The rate of increase of non-Christians (Sunnis and Shiites) is higher than that of Christianbecause Christians are mainly urban dwellers and are more highly educated than the Muslims.Although in rural areas the natural growth rates of both groups are identical, this is not the casein the urban settlements.20 Chamie21 presents statistics on the communities from 1922 to 1956but simply notes the sources without commenting on their reliability. Besides, there hasbeen constant outmigration from Lebanon; most of the emigrants were Maronites or otherChristians.22 For these reasons it is not possible that the percentage of Christians rose between1922 and 1956 as is shown in Column II, while that of the Muslims fell. The opposite would beexpected to have occurred. For this reason, in the calculation of figures in columns III and IV,the year of origin is 1932, not 1956.Column HI presents the population of Lebanon in 1983 on the assumption that there has beenno migration, no war deaths and that rates of natural growth of the community is known inadvance. The growth rates for the Sunnis and the Shiites have been calculated at three per centper annum, the Maronite and Druze growth rates were 2.5 per cent, while those of the GreekOrthodox, Greek Catholic and Armenians, two per cent only, these being the most urbanized

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200 MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES

Lebanon. The column for 1983 is accompanied by an explanation on itsmethod of construction.

The dramatic rise in the population of the Beqaa, southern Lebanon andnorthern Lebanon between 1959 and 1964 are suspect, as is the decline inthese provinces between 1964 and 1970 (Table 3). This is partially explainedby the relationships to different populations which include some of theLebanese abroad. If we ignore the 1964 figures completely, we are still leftwith some strange anomalies between 1959 and 1970. There is no significantpopulation rise in the Beqaa, north Lebanon and south Lebanon. Theconclusion to be garnered from this is that the increase of population inLebanon took place only in Greater Beirut.

This is implausible, for at the same time, there was considerable growth inTyre and Sidon, as well as construction in smaller peripheral towns such as

and highly educated groups.23 This column served as a point of origin for an estimate of theLebanese population in 1983.Columns IV and V were constructed in the following way: We have no well-founded figures,and therefore, these columns indicate trends only. It has been noted that approximately500,000 either emigrated or were killed since 1975. Emigration from the state is known to haveoccurred before this (up to the 1950s), but during the boom years of the 1960s, many Lebanesereturned.The Maronites left Lebanon in greater numbers than any other group throughout the years butespecially on the outbreak of the civil war in 1975. If we assume that since 1932 approximately80,000 have been killed in the internecine strife, at least one-third were Maronites. We havecalculated a total decline of approximately 200,000 for the Maronites as compared with thefigure expected without emigration and killing (the difference between columns III and IV).The Greek Orthodox and Greek Catholics also suffered as a result of the war (mainly in Zahle,Beirut and the south), many being killed and others leaving the country. The Jewish communityalmost vanished completely from Lebanon, as did Protestant groups. The number of Lebanesebelonging to these groups in 1983 appears in Column IV.The Sunnis also suffered greatly with many dead and others emigrating to the oil states. TheShiites and Druze suffered least during the civil war and these groups have shown little tendencyto migrate. Thus the differences here are least.The total difference between column III and IV is 515,000, including 80,000 dead and 435,000migrants and laborers.The conclusion from the statistics in this column is clear. The Christian communities havebecome the minority, numbering no more than 40 per cent of the total Lebanese population.Most of the change has occurred within the Maronite community, which is now only the thirdlargest community in the country. In 1932 it had been the largest.The Shiites have become the largest single group. The Sunnis have remained in second place,but their relative and absolute weight within Lebanese society have increased. The changesamongst the smaller communities have been insubstantial except for a small rise in the strengthof the Druze and a decline in the Christian communities.The political pressures in Lebanon in recent years, expecially on the part of the Shiites andSunnis, reflect the new demographic situation. The Shiites, the most economically backwardgroup, are pressing for a large share of the national pie. Since the 1979 Iranian revolution theyhave strong support from the Iranian Shiite authorities. In addition, the Syrian president is amember of the minority Alawite community, which has strong ties with the Lebanese Shiites.When the Palestinians and other groups of foreigners living in Lebanon are brought into thepicture, the situation changes even more in favor of the Muslims. The Palestinian Christiansmostly became Lebenese citizens, while the Muslims retained refugee status. Most of theforeigners were Syrians, presumably Sunnis. On the basis of these assumptions, column IV wasconstructed, in which the main change is the rise of the Sunnis to the status of largest group inLebanon in 1983, with around 875,000 (32.5 per cent of the total Lebanese population).

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DEMOGRAPHY IN THE LEBANON 201

TABLE 3THE POPULATION OF LEBANON BY PROVINCE IN THOUSANDS

(SELECTED YEARS)

1(1959) 11(1964) 111(1970) IV(1983) V (1983)Lebanese Lebanese and Lebanese Lebanese Lebanese and

Province Expatriates Others

Beirut

Mt. LebanonN. Lebanon

S. LabanonBeqa .«

822338238228

331678.7551.4

458.9347.1

938.8369.0365249.9

203.5

870500500300230

950500580400270

3,626 2,367.1 ^126.2 2400 2,700

Sources: I) Schmelz, 1973, p. 26.II) Lebanon, Statistiques Libanaises 1968. The figures also include Lebanese

outside Lebanon.Ill) Population Bulletin 1973, p. 38.24. The statistics relate only to current Lebanese

population.

Nabatiya, Tibnin and Bint-Jebail. Similarly, there was development inTripoli in the north and of Zahle, in the central Beqaa. This in addition toabsolute population increase in the villages. These facts contradict thefigures in Table 3.

Even though there are doubts about the 1959 and 1964 figures, the 1970statistics appear more reliable. These were published by the planning officeof the Lebanese Department of Statistics in 1972 and are based on a villagesurvey, and they serve us as a reference point for constructing the provincialpopulations in 1983 (Columns IV; V).25

There was a constant outward flow of population from the relativelypoor Beqaa to the coast during this period, especially in 1978 and 1979when Zahle suffered considerably from bombardment. This is reflectedin Column IV.A. Similar outmigration is seen in south Lebanon, mainlybetween 1970 and 1982 as a result of a massive Israeli retaliation raids on thisregion as reaction to Palestinian attacks on Jewish settlements. In contrast tothis, with the increase in fighting in Beirut in August 1982, there was areversal of this trend, many people returning to the relatively quiet areasunder Israeli control. The returnees were mainly Shiites, but also included

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202 MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES

Christians (from Israeli border villages and Beirut area). Northern Lebanonwas largely unaffected by the civil war, and thus few changes occurred.

Although Mount Lebanon suffered in parts, especially near Beirut, thecity of Junieh, in contrast, underwent a boom, and as a result there were nochanges in the area overall. Most of the changes during this period occurredin Greater Beirut, especially in the city itself. Whole sections were destroyedand abandoned in 1975-76, in the Israeli retaliation raids which followed,and again in the 1982/83 war. The city population declined to some 870,000.

According to UNRWA publications, there were 65,000 Palestinians inBeirut in 1972, a total of 184,000 in Lebanon.26 These numbers changedhardly at all due to the way in which this population suffered between 1975and 19S3.

Some 60,000 foreigners lived in Beirut, with a small percentage in Zahleand Tripoli.

This population distribution (V) indicates that in November 1983, some450,000 Lebanese (400,000 in South Lebanon, 50,000 in the SouthernBeqaa) were living under Israeli rule; 800,000 Lebanese were under Syriancontrol; a further 800,000 Christians lived under the official control of theLebanon. The remainder includes 150,000 Druze, more or less autonomousin the Chouf mountains, and about 500,000 Sunni (including Palestinians)and Shiite Muslim inhabitants of Beirut who do not accept the rule of thecentral government and operate a semi-autonomous system in their resi-dential areas in the western side of the city.

It is assumed that no major changes in the ethnographic map of Lebanonhave occurred since 1932. In other words, no ethnic group infiltrated thearea of any other in any significant way. The exception is the large cities,which are more mixed than previously, mainly as a result of the recentmigration of Druzes and Shiites. The Maronites also, formerly villagedwellers, have moved to the cities, mainly to Beirut and its suburbs, and in alarge way Beirut grew out towards the Maronite villages.

For this reason, there are no significant changes in the map of the com-munities which was presented by el-Badry (1966), which relates to 1946, deVaumas (1955) and Hartman (1979).v

The main points of the map (see Figure 1) are as follows. In Beirut,Sunnis, Shiite and Armenians form the majority. It is possible that theArmenians have declined, but the Sunnis remain the largest single group.The Maronites are the largest group on Mount Lebanon (over 80 per cent).The Druze form more than 80 per cent of the population in the ChoufMountains, while in North Lebanon Sunni Muslims constitute more than 50per cent of the total population, and in South Lebanon, the Shiites are 60-70per cent. The Shiites are also the largest group in the Beqaa, with 30 percent.

SummaryThe new figures presented here emphasize the following points:

The Muslims have become a majority in Lebanon, a fact which can nolonger be denied.

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DEMOGRAPHY IN THE LEBANON 203

FIGURE ILEBANON: DISTRIBUTION OF COMMUNITIES

— Present boundary

Boundary of Provinces

•• Boundary of Little Lebanon(1881-1920)

I \ \ 1 Maronites

E?v7l Greek Orthodox

!•• • . • • • ' • • ] Shiites

jffgfff/M Sunnis

|v,- : j Druzes

| | Mixed

" » ^ , ^ , - f - ' i -^

The geographical distribution of the communities in Lebanon is such thatthe Maronites can choose from three alternatives:

1. To return to a 'small Lebanon', controlling Mount Lebanon withan outlet to the sea at Junieh. In this 'small Lebanon' (1861-1920)they were 90 per cent of the population; 2. To recognize the Muslimmajority, bringing about changes in the governance of Lebanon and tobecome a small minority in yet another Muslim state in the region;3. To retain Lebanon as it is, to continue the war of attrition which hasalready extended over several decades, relying on outside forces to aidthem and strengthen their hand in controlling Lebanon.

Of course, these three alternatives are not easy for the Maronites, but thedemographic situation ensures that they do not ignore the fact in making

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204 MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES

their decision. The facts bear out the demographic importance of the Shiitesand their socio-economic weakness, which should prove a warning to any-one who attempts to rule them in the near future.

NOTES

1. M.A. El-Badry, 'Trends in the Components of Population Growth in the Arab Countriesof the Middle-East: A Survey of Present Information', Demography, Vol. 2,1965, p. 175.

2. The figures refer to Little Lebanon (Mountain Lebanon only) based on D.C. Gordon TheRepublic of Lebanon: Nation in Jeopardy (London, Croom Helm, 1981), p.9, and Y.Chamie, Religion and Fertility: Arab Christian-Muslim differentials (Cambridge: Cam-bridge University Press, 1981), p.29.

3. The last census, according to V. Schmelz, 'Demographic Development of the ArabCountries in our Region', The New East, Vol. 23, No.l, 1973, p.22 Gordon, p.9, indicates785,543; M.C. Hudson, The Precarious Republic-Political Modernization in Lebanon(New York, Random House, 1968), p.57, points out 756,000.

4. Schmelz, p.22.5. Ibid., p.22.6. Ibid., p.22.7. UN Demographic Yearbook, 1965.8. A.R. Omran, Population in the Arab World: Problems and Prospects (New York, Croom

Helm 1980), p.53.9. According to official Lebanon sources. In 1970 a sample had shown 91,000 Palestinians in

the camps and 43,000 outside the camps; according to UNRWA in 1967 the number ofPalestinians in Lebanon was 160,700.

10. Lebanon, Statistiques Libanaises 1968. 419,000 aliens living in Lebanon in addition to thePalestinians.

11. 1974 is a year before the civil war. The figure is based on 1970-74 annual growth of 2.5 percent.

12. According to the UN Statistical Yearbook, 1976.13. According to UNRWA, 1976, 212,000 Palestinians living in camps and outside in 1976.14. Europa Publications, The Middle East and North Africa, 1981-1982 (London, 1981)p.548.

560,000 aliens living in addition to the Palestinians. These estimates include 350,000Syrians, 75,000 Egyptians, 78,000 Africans, 30,000 French, 15,000 Americans and 12,000British. These aliens are included in the 1974 figure. At the same time, there were severalhundred thousand persons with tourist status in Lebanon, including 315,000 Syriantourists.

15. Ibid.,p.548. "The total is believed to have dropped to 2.6 million in 1979, or 2.260 million ifnon-Lebanese residents are excluded.' For 1975 Omran, p.53 gives two figures: 2.720million according to UNESCO and 2.869 million according to UN. It is not clear if thefigures are for the present population of Lebanon (V) or only the Lebanese (column I orII). Based on these data and the annual growth rate 1970-75 (2.5 per cent) he reaches thefigure 3.251 million Lebanese in 1980. The UN Statistical Yearbook, 1981 gives a figure of2.658 million people for 1980. The latter figure is acceptable for the present population ofLebanon only in 1980, but we can assume that this figure is given by the Lebanongovernment for Column II. We cannot accept the figures of Omran for several reasons: 1)Between 1974 and 1979 the civil war began and thousands fled the country. In addition, it isestimated that 50,000-60,000 persons were killed in this war and many left in search oftemporary employment abroad. There is positive evidence that 150,000 Syrians left thecountry, 40,000 emigrated to Europe, 30,000 returned to Egypt, 25,000 arrived in SaudiArabia and a further 20,000-30,000 settled in Amman, Jordan. In addition there isevidence that another 210,000 found employment abroad in 1979 mainly in Saudi Arabia(73,400), Europe (27,000) and Kuwait (16,000). (Europa Publication, ibid., p. 548.)Altogether more than half a million people left the country, in addition to those killed.Concerning the Palestinians, the figures shown by A.G. Hill, "The Palestinian Population

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DEMOGRAPHY IN THE LEBANON 205

of the Middle East', Population and Development Review, 9 No. 2,1983 p. 295 for 1978/9(215,000) are acceptable, as we know that the Palestinians suffered more than anyone elseduring 1975-79 from the civil war and the Israeli air strikes, shelling and other retaliationactivities later on. For this reason and based on previous figures we reject the figures givenby the PLO (347,100) for the number of Palestinians in Lebanon in 1980. Gordon, p. 94,who uses PLO figures, claims that in 1982 the total number of Palestinians in Lebanonreached 400,000-500,000. In conclusion, we accept the figures of the Europa publicationfor 1979, the number of Palestinians according to Hill figures and the drop of at least half amillion people in Lebanon 1975-79.

16. Based on 1979-83 annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent.17. Between 1979 and 1983 the Palestinians lost many lives as a result of continuous waves of

hostilities with Israel and the Maronites, and we can assume that the number did notincrease.

18. E. de Vaumas, ia Repartition Confessionnelle a Liban et l'dquilibre de l'dtat Libanais',Revue de Giographie Alpin (Grenoble) 43, No. 3, 1955, pp.511-603.

19. Hudson, p.22.20. Schmelz, pp.Chamie, p.77, D. Yankey, Fertility Differences in a Modernizing Country

(Princeton University Press, 1961).21. Chamie, p.25.22. Shmelz, pp.24-5, Chamie, p.85.23. Chamie, p.85.24. Population Bulletin, Demographic Characteristics of Beirut City 1970 (Beirut, INESCO,

1973).25. Ibid., p.38.26. Ibid., p.50.27. EI-Badry, p.177, de Vaumas, and K.P. Hartman, 'Lebanon', in tubinger Atlas des Vor-

deren Orients (Wiesbaden, Der Universitat Tubingen, 1979).

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