Public Opinion and

Political Action

Public Opinion– The distribution of the population’s beliefs

about politics and policy issues.Demography

– The science of population changes.Census

– A valuable tool for understanding population changes

– Required every 10 years by the Constitution

How do we know the will of How do we know the will of the people?the people?

How are polls conducted?How are polls conducted?

– Random Sampling: Polling that has been drawn from a population in such a way

that each time an item was selected, every item in the population had an equal opportunity to appear in the sample (race, age, gender, class…)

– Sampling Error: The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion

poll. +-%

– Needs to be a statistically significant sample size to be considered valid

The Role of Polls in American The Role of Polls in American DemocracyDemocracy

– Polls help politicians figure out public preferences.

– Does it make politicians think more about following the polls?

– Exit Polls Poll people leaving the voting booth used by the media to predict election day winners.

– The wording of questions makes a difference.

What Polls Reveal About AmericansWhat Polls Reveal About Americans– Americans don’t know much about politics.– Americans may know their basic beliefs, but not how

that affects policies of the government.

The Decline of Trust in The Decline of Trust in GovernmentGovernment

– Since 1964, trust in government has declined.– Effects of Vietnam and Watergate

What trends do demographers What trends do demographers observe?observe?

The Immigrant Society– Hispanics are the largest growing minority group

The Regional Shift– Decline of the Rust Belt, rise of

the Sun Belt– Compare the rise of California

and the fall of New York– Reapportionment: – The process of reallocating seats

in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census.

– Example, in 2010 Ohio lost 2 Congressional seats, Florida gained 2 seats

The Graying of America– Fastest growing age group is over 65, Baby

Boomers– Potential drain on Social Security– “Gray Power” controls American politics

How do Americans participate How do Americans participate in politics?in politics?

Political Participation:– All the activities used by citizens to influence

the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue.

Conventional Participation– Voting in elections– Working in campaigns / running for office– Contacting elected officials

Types of ParticipationTypes of Participation2000 Election participation 82% watched the campaign on television 73% voted in the election 34% tried to influence others how to vote 10% put a sticker on their car 9% gave money to help a campaign 5% attended a political meeting 3% worked for a party or candidate

Is this true? 73% of people vote? – No, people lie

Protest as ParticipationProtest as Participation

– Protest: A form of political participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics.

– Civil disobedience: A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences.

How few Americans vote?How few Americans vote? Americans vote at low rates compared to other developed

democracies 120/169 in voter turnout Voter turnout is defined = People voted/Total eligible to

vote (Not registered) out of the voting age population Trend of low voter turnout Average turnout in the US is about 67% for a presidential

election 40% for midterm elections 36% voter turnout for the 2014 Midterms

– The last time voter turnout was that low was 1942, when only 34% of voters cast ballots because many were oversees fighting WWII

World Comparison: vote to registration ratio, parliamentary or presidential elections

1 Australia 94.5%

2 Singapore 93.5 %

3 Uzbekistan 93.5 %

4 Liechtenstein 92.8 %

5 Belgium 92.5 %

6 Nauru 92.4 %

7 Bahamas 91.9%

8 Indonesia 91.5%

9 Burundi 91.4 %

10 Austria 91.3 %

15 Italy 89.8 %

19 South Africa 89.3%

33 Germany 85.4% 48 Norway 80.4 % 50 Israel 80.3% 53 Greece 79.9% 66 Iran 77.3% 76 UK75.2% 120 USA 66.5%

in Presidential Elections 142 Russia 58.4% 157 Nigeria 50.3%

US Presidential Voter TurnoutUS Presidential Voter TurnoutElections with over 80%, 1840, 1860, 1876, 18961964 – 69.3% 1980 – 41.3%1984 – 60.9%1988 – 40.5%1992 – 55.2%1996 – 49.1%2000 – 51.3%2004 – 55.3%2008 - 62.3%2012 - 57.5%

• Bad officials are elected by good citizens who do not vote

• “Hapathy”= ignorant, happy people who don’t vote

Voter Turnout: Why is it so Voter Turnout: Why is it so low?low?

Voter Registration – Number one cause of low voter turnout– Must do it months ahead of an election– Progressive reform meant to limit voter fraud– Registration procedures differ from state to state.– What happens when you move?– Have you registered?– Where will you live in November of 2016?

“Motor-Voter” (1993) – National Voter Registration Act – Allowed people to register to vote while they get license– Attempted to improve turnout, but failed

World Comparison: Compulsory voting- Australia

System in which electors are obliged to vote in elections or attend a polling place on voting day.

If an eligible voter does not attend a polling place, he or she may be subject to punitive measures such as fines or community service.

22 countries have laws for compulsory voting and 11 of these 22 countries enforce these laws in practice.

Australia 20$ fine for the 1st offense, 50$ 2nd time, no fine for local elections

System can confer a high System can confer a high degree of political legitimacy  degree of political legitimacy 

The victorious candidate represents a majority of the population, not just the politically motivated individuals who would vote without compulsion

It becomes more difficult for extremist or special interest groups to get themselves into power or to influence mainstream candidates.

Under a non-compulsory voting system, if fewer people vote then it is easier for lobby groups to motivate a small section of the people to the polls and influence the outcome of the political process.

The outcome of an election where voting is compulsory reflects more of the will of the people (Who do I want to lead the country?) rather than reflecting who was more able to convince people to take time out of their day to cast a vote (Do I even want to vote today?).

Red-Compulsory voting, enforced. Dark Pink-Compulsory voting, not enforced. Orange-Compulsory voting, enforced only for men Light Pink- Compulsory voting, not enforced (only men Yellow-Historical: the country had compulsory voting in the past.

Other reasons for low turnoutOther reasons for low turnout Weekday, non-holiday voting, national elections are held on the

first Tuesday after the first Sunday in November Number of offices and elections too high, systemic to federalism

– Are you going to vote for your local city council member? Difficulty of Absentee Voting Weak political parties – less “get-out-the-vote campaigns Voter ID laws Determining suffrage is a state’s rights, federalism issue Recently, states have made it harder to vote

People who are destroying People who are destroying America- TeachersAmerica- Teachers

http://www.cc.com/video-clips/bf1ekb/the-colbert-report-people-who-are-destroying-america---teachers

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/otg9pc/purge-overkill

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/i73o7x/wizards-of-i-d----voter-i-d--laws

Why should a citizen vote?Why should a citizen vote?

– Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote.– Political Efficacy: The belief that one’s

political participation really matters.– Civic Duty: The belief the in order to support

democratic government, a citizen should always vote.

What factors correlate with higher voting rates?

1. Education – MOST IMPORTANT, more education=more voting

2. Age – 18-24 is the lowest, and 45 and up is the highest

3. Religious involvement4. Marital Status:

Married = more likely to vote.

Turnout by Age, 2000Turnout by Age, 2000

5. Race and Ethnicity – Whites vote at higher rates than minorities (might be economic based)

6. Political Party or Union affiliation

7.Gender – men traditionally voted more, now women vote more

8.Two-party competition – more competitive elections have higher turnout-Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up.

-Cross-cutting cleavages – individuals influenced by many factors, it is important when testing for this that variables are controlled

How has suffrage expanded How has suffrage expanded over time?over time?

1. Lifting of property restrictions (1830) – “universal manhood suffrage” gave voting rights to all white males, Jacksonian Democracy

2. Suffrage for African-Americans (1865-1964)1. 1865 - 15th Amendment – Voting Rights could not be denied

based on race

2. 1964 24th Amendment – banned poll tax

3. 1965 – Voting Rights Act of 1965 – federal law prohibited literacy tests, the federal government would enroll African American voters if states would not

Expanding SuffrageExpanding Suffrage

3. Women’s Suffrage (1920) – 19th Amendment gave women the right to vote, largest ever expansion of the franchise

4. 18-21 year-olds (1971) – 26th Amendment, sparked by Vietnam

How do Americans learn How do Americans learn about politics? about politics?

Political Socialization:– “…the process through which and individual

acquires [their] particular political orientation”

The Family-#1 influence in the US-Time & emotional commitment-Political leanings of children often mirror their parent’s leanings

– The Mass Media Generation gap in TV news viewing

– School / Education Used by government to socialize the young into the

political culture Education produces better jobs and a more positive

view of government

Why do people voter for a Why do people voter for a candidate?candidate?

Political Ideology:– A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public

policy, and public purpose.

Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives?– Currently about 37% conservative, 23% liberal,

40% moderate

Do People Think in Ideological Do People Think in Ideological Terms?Terms?

– Ideologues: think in ideological terms - 12% of the population

– Group Benefits: rely on party labels - 42% of the population

– Nature of the Times: current times are good or bad - 24% of the population

– No issue content: based on personalities - 22% of the population

How Americans Vote: How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's DecisionsExplaining Citizen's DecisionsParty Identification

– People generally vote for a party they agree with.

– Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed this view.

– Now many voters are individualistic.– Characteristics of each candidate have become

more important than party.

How Americans Vote: How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's DecisionsExplaining Citizen's Decisions

Policy Voting– Basing your vote choice on issue preferences.– Must know where they and the candidates stand on

issues and see differences between candidates.– Candidates are often ambiguous on the issues on

purpose.– The press tends to focus on the “horse race” not the

issues.– Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the

party primaries.

How Americans Vote: Explaining How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen’s DecisionsCitizen’s Decisions

Which party do people vote for Which party do people vote for most of the time ?most of the time ?

Democrats African Americans Most Hispanic groups Jews ------------- -------------

Women Labor Unions Teachers Post Office Workers The Working class Urban Young

Republicans Whites Cubans Religious groups, Evangelical Christians,

Catholics Men Business owners Police Officers Soldiers Affluent Americans Rural Old

In ConclusionIn Conclusion

Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action– We select our leaders, not policies.– We protest for specific policies, not against the

government.– Many Americans do not participate or are

informed about the political process.– There are many barriers to voting

ElectionsElections

How do elections affect How do elections affect public policy?public policy?

Mandate Theory of Elections– The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate

from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics if they win by a large margin.

– Best examples, FDR’s 1932 election and the New Deal and LBJ’s 1964 election and the Great Society

– Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.

Elections

Federal electionsFederal elections Federal elections are always held in even years on the first

Tuesday in November after the first Sunday in November They are held every even year, never during an odd year Presidential elections are every 4 years House of Representatives 100% of the body goes up for

election every 2 years Senate elections are rotated so that 1/3 of the body is up for

election every 2 years There are no elections for federal judges or most government

employees (Post office workers, soldiers, accountants…)

State and Local electionsState and Local elections

These elections can vary greatly and do not always coincide with federal elections

Elections can be in odd yearsNot always held in NovemberAre there too many elections?Examples:

– Governors, mayors, state legislators, state and local judges, school boards, city council members, sheriff, …

What types of elections are What types of elections are there in the US?there in the US?

Three types of elections:– Select party nominees (primary elections)– Select officeholders (general elections)– Select options on specific policies (referendums)

ReferendumsReferendums

– Voters approve or disapprove proposed legislation.– Purest form of democracy in the American system– There is no such thing as a national referendum, only

state and local referendums– Often used for constitutional amendments.– Examples: gay marriage, marijuana legalization,

school bond issues, & tax measures– Sometimes used as a get out the vote measure to

draw loyal party voters to the polls (Anti-Gay marriage Amendments)

ReferendumsReferendums

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/wabjnr/other-news---referenda-round-up

InitiativesInitiatives Petitions:

– Voters in some states propose legislation to be voted on.– Requires a specific number of signatures to be valid.– Can still be voted down by the people (referendum)– Only at state levels, no such thing as a federal initiative– Some argue not democratic because powerful interest

groups often have the resources to propose and execute– Example: medical marijuana in Florida, Morgan and

Morgan

RecallRecall

Voters vote to remove a politician before his term is up

Voter impeachmentExample: Wisconsin Governor Scott

Walker narrowly kept his officeOnly a state level election, never at the

federal level

How do you get elected How do you get elected President?President?

Nomination:– The official endorsement of a candidate for office

by a political party.– Republican & Democratic Party most important

endorsements, final two contest– Goal is to win the most delegates– 1st step to becoming President – Success requires momentum, money, and media

attention.

PrimariesPrimariesElections in which voters choose the nominee or

delegates pledged to the nominee.Started by turn of the century reformers to increase

democracy (less republican form of government) and take power away from party leaders to choose candidates

Most states use one of the forms of a primary.Frontloading is the tendency of states to hold primaries

early - New Hampshire is the first primary by state law.Generally primaries serve as elimination contests.

NH mandates in state law that they will always be 1st primary!

Primaries weaken Political Primaries weaken Political PartiesParties

Party leaders can’t control the candidates Multiple candidates can splinter the party

membership Delegates tend to be out of touch with average

voters on social and taxation issues Candidates need the extremists to win delegate

support Primary elections tend to be extremist campaigns,

while general elections tend to be more moderate Primary elections tend to only let more extreme

people vote

Types of PrimariesTypes of Primaries closed primary: voter can only vote for nominee if he/she is registered as party member, Florida open primary: voter doesn’t have to belong to a party to vote for that party’s nominee (still has to be

a registered voter), South Carolina Allows for crossover voting; a voter from one party votes for the other party’s

nominee Blanket (Jungle) primary: voters get a list of all candidates from all parties, top 2 win and appear on the general

election ballot Both winners could be from the same party California tried to implement this method, but deemed unconstitutional because it

violated the 1st Amendment and the freedom of political association

Caucus ElectionsCaucus ElectionsCaucus: closed meeting of party leaders/followers who Caucus: closed meeting of party leaders/followers who

decide the candidates/delegates (only the true believers decide the candidates/delegates (only the true believers attendattend

Organized like a pyramid from local precincts to the state’s convention.

Not used by many states.Iowa caucus is first and considered the most important.More of a republican than a democratic form of

government

Ah, lovely Iowa…

Caucus gathers in local church…

Caucus called to order…

Dean supporters gather here… Kerry supporters there… Edwards supporters over here!

And they try to convince each other to join their groups, until the caucus official sorts it out!

Is this nomination system Is this nomination system good for America?good for America?

The Inflated Importance of Iowa and New Hampshire

2008 Schedule2008 Schedule

January 3—Iowa caucus January 5—Wyoming caucus (Republican only) January 8—New Hampshire primary January 15—Michigan primary January 19—Nevada Caucus & Republican South Carolina primary January 26—Democratic South Carolina primary January 29—Florida primary February 1 - February 2―Republican Maine caucus February 5 ― Super Tuesday: Primaries/caucuses for both parties in 19 states,

plus three Democratic-only caucuses and two Republican-only primaries

Evaluating the Primary and Evaluating the Primary and Caucus SystemCaucus System

Disproportionate attention to the early ones. Money plays too big a role. Participation in primaries and caucuses is low and unrepresentative. Do voters in New Hampshire and Iowa look like most Americans? New Hampshire and Iowa effectively get to narrow the field to a few

candidates The system gives too much power to the media. Reform: Should the US have a national primary day to take power

away from Iowa and New Hampshire? Super Tuesday functions as a Quasi-National Primary Day

The Convention Send-offThe Convention Send-off

– Once provided great drama, but now they are a basic formality - which means less TV time.

– Are still important to the party to get organized and motivated.

– Party platform: Statement of its goals and policies and general beliefs.

– Official nominations and candidate speeches.– Held every four years– Held in swing states

The Declining Coverage of The Declining Coverage of Conventions on Network TV Conventions on Network TV

Primaries ExplainedPrimaries Explained

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_95I_1rZiIs&safe=active

Debate: Should the Electoral Debate: Should the Electoral College be abolished?College be abolished?

How does the Electoral How does the Electoral College work?College work?

Electoral College actually elects the President, not the voters

Founders wanted him chosen by the elite of the country (a republican instead of a democratic form of government)

States get to decide the method for selecting the electorsCandidates focus their campaigns on swing states, large

states that are in play and could be won by either person, like Ohio or Florida

– Each state has as many electoral votes as it does House of Representatives and Senators, 538 total Electoral votes

– DC gets 3 votes, 23rd Amendment– Winner of the state’s popular vote typically gets ALL the Electoral College votes

from the state, called the winner-take-all system. (48/50 states)– Nebraska and Maine sometimes split up their votes– Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to more populated states– Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the vice president in January.– Electors are pledged to vote for a person, but sometimes switch their vote

(faithless elector)– If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the House of Representatives votes for

president, with each state getting ONE vote. The Senate would elect the VP.

Concerns With The Concerns With The Electoral CollegeElectoral College

-Disproportionate Voting Power Given to Different States

-The Winner-Take-All Method of Distributing Electoral Votes -Unbound Electors -House of Representatives Can Choose the President-Enforcement of a Two Party System -Presidency Can Be Won Without a Plurality of the Popular Vote: 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000

-Disproportionate Voting Power Given to the States

Arguments for the Electoral Arguments for the Electoral CollegeCollege

contributes to the cohesiveness of the country by requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president

enhances the status of minority interests,contributes to the political stability of the nation

by encouraging a two-party system, andmaintains a federal system of government and

representation.

Does the Electoral College give an

advantage to large or small states?

Large State Advantage?Large State Advantage?

Win just the large states & can win the election

Small State (Republican) Advantage? For example, the 12 smallest states today—Alaska,

Delaware, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming together account for only 17 (of 435) representatives in the House, or 3.9% of the total.  However, in the Electoral College, thanks to the “Senate bump,” the same states account for 41 electoral votes, or 7.6% of the total of 538.

Pick Debate SidesPick Debate Sides

The Last Battle: The Electoral The Last Battle: The Electoral CollegeCollege

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw&safe=active

How it worksThe Trouble with the Electoral Collegehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=7wC42HgLA4k&safe=activeHow to deal with a tie?http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=sHEDXzOfENI&safe=active

CGP GrayCGP Gray

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUS9mM8Xbbw&safe=active

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI&safe=active

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wC42HgLA4k&safe=active

A Tale of Three ElectionsA Tale of Three Elections1800: The First Electoral Transition of Power

– No primaries, no conventions, no speeches– Newspapers were very partisan.– Campaigns focused on state legislatures - they were the ones

that chose the Electoral College.– People did not directly vote for the President– No majority in the Electoral College, so the House after many

votes picked Jefferson over Burr– Revolution of 1800– 12th Amendment

1896: Gold v. Silver1896: Gold v. Silver

– Democrat’s main issue: Unlimited coinage of silver.– William Jennings Bryan won the Democratic Party

nomination with the Cross of Gold speech at the convention, people did not vote in primaries yet

– Bryan was the 1st candidate to campaign nationwide– McKinley won the election, and the Republicans became the

party of power and broke the politics of paralysis of the age– Q. Why did the Northeast vote for McKinley? – A. No secret ballot, companies would fire you if you voted

for the wrong party

2000 Bush v. Gore2000 Bush v. Gore Election results hinged on Florida, where the

margin of victory triggered a mandatory recount.

Litigation in select counties started additional recounts, and this litigation ultimately reached the United States Supreme Court.

The Court's contentious decision in Bush v. Gore effectively awarding Florida's votes to Bush and granting him the victory.

Popular Vote: 50,456,002 Bush to 50,999,897 Gore

This marked the fourth election in U.S. history in which the eventual winner failed to win a plurality of the popular vote like the elections of 1824, 1876, and 1888

Why can a Why can a good man not good man not

be elected be elected president?president?

Money and CampaigningMoney and Campaigning

The Maze of Campaign Finance Reforms– Federal Election Campaign Act (1974)

Created the FEC to administer campaign finance laws for federal elections in reaction to Nixon and Watergate.

Created the Presidential Election Campaign Fund. Provided partial public financing for presidential primaries

(matching funds). Provided full public financing for major party candidates in

the general election. Required full disclosure. Limited Contributions.

Buckley v. Valeo Buckley v. Valeo (1976)(1976)

Supreme Court struck down limits on personal campaign spending.

Spending your own money on your campaign is a free speech 1st Amendment right.

Money and CampaigningMoney and Campaigning– Hard Money

Money raised under the limits of campaign finance laws

– Soft Money Contributions (with no limits) used for party-building (voter

education, voter registration, & get out the vote efforts) expenses or generic party advertising

– McCain-Feingold Act (2002) banned soft money, increased amount individuals can contribute, and limited “issue ads.”

– Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission (2010) Case struck down the ban on ads by corporations and unions

on 1st Amendment grounds Led to the creation of 501 (C) (4)s, Super PACs

The Decline in Income Tax The Decline in Income Tax Check-Off Participation for Check-Off Participation for

Federal Financing of Federal Financing of Campaigns Campaigns

The Proliferation of PACsThe Proliferation of PACs

– Definition: Created by law in 1974 to allow corporations, labor unions and others to donate money to campaigns.

– As of 2004 there were 3,868 PACs.– PACs contributed over $258 million to congressional

candidates in 2002.– Donate to candidates who support their issue,

regardless of party affiliation– Not sufficient data that PACs “buy” candidates

Money and CampaigningMoney and Campaigning

Money and CampaigningMoney and Campaigning

Are Campaigns Too Expensive?– Fund raising takes up lots of time.– Incumbents do worse when they spend more money

because they need it when they face tough challengers.– The doctrine of sufficiency suggests that candidates need

just “enough” money to win, not necessarily “more.”– Most Political Scientists maintain big money in the US

political system is the #1 issue needed to be reformed

The Impact of CampaignsThe Impact of Campaigns

Campaigns have three effects on voters:– Reinforcement, Activation, Conversion

Mostly, they only reinforce & activate– Selective perception: pay attention to things we

agree with.– Party identification still has an affect– Incumbents start with a substantial advantage

Are Nominations and Campaigns Too Democratic?– Campaigns are open to almost everyone.– Campaigns consume much time and money. – Campaigns promote individualism in American politics.

Do Big Campaigns Lead to an Increased Scope of Government?– Candidates make numerous promises, especially to state and

local interests.– Hard for politicians to promise to make government cuts.– Other countries have short campaigns - generally less than 2

months.– U.S. campaigns (especially for President) can last 18 months

or more.

In ConclusionIn Conclusion

Democracy and Elections– Voters can steer government only when there are

noticeable policy differences between the candidates.

– Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections, bigger government.

– Policies affect voting behavior through retrospective voting.

– Bad economies make politicians nervous.