DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL POLICY AND SOCIAL WORK

Demographic behaviour of immigrant and minority populations

David Coleman University of Oxford david.coleman@spi.ox.ac.uk http://www.spi.ox.ac.uk/oxpop

Demographic effects of migration Immigration increases population size of receiving

populations (direct and indirect), can reduce age. May affect on native birth and death rates (invasions,

colonisations: e.g. China, New World). Emigration decreases sending population, can delay

fertility decline (Kingsley Davis – ‘Theory of Change and Response’: Ireland, Puerto Rico, Philippines, NW Europe except France).

In simple societies migration may be essential to population survival (‘effective size’, local extinction).

Likely to increase genetic and cultural diversity of ‘receiving’ population- new ethnic groups.

Ethnic groups Group of people sharing distinctive characteristics of

language, religion, kinship relations . Sharing or believing in a common ancestry and usually a

common ancestral geographical homeland. May or may not be (originally) biologically distinct. Indigenous or arising from migration. In democracies, usually self-defined and self-attributed. Reinforced by census and survey ethnic characterisations,

minority status; even ‘created’ and maintained by them. Made salient by distinctive demographic regimes, different

stages of demographic transition.

Demographic interest in ethnic groups

Key interest is demographic contrasts between groups inhabiting same area - ancient neighbours or new migration.

In pre-transitional times minor demographic differences (if any); unimportant without democracy or statistics.

Balance of numbers altered by timing differences in demographic transition (partly because of ‘ethnic’ cultural differences?).e.g. Kosovo

Differences become salient as multi-cultural empires were replaced by nation-states with minorities. e.g. Turkey.

Democracy emphasises numbers, differentials and power, demography provides numbers. e.g. Lebanon, Nigeria.

Migration creates and maintains new, non-traditional minorities.

Diverse origins of ethnic minority populations

Ethnic or cultural replacement by migration / invasion – North Africa, Anatolia, North America, Australia, England

Dominant minority from migration (Manchus, past Southern Africa)

Reversal of status through demographic change (US) New ‘groups’ from inter-ethnic marriage Slavery and indenture Labour and chain migration Colonial map-making and boundary creation. Boundary changes (Versailles, Potsdam, Soviet collapse)

Ethnic groups in the Austro-Hungarian empire

Distribution of ethnic groups in the Balkans

Le Monde Diplomatique Cartographer/ Designer Philippe Rekacewicz, UNEP/GRID-Arendal

Persons of Russian ‘nationality’ in former republics of the Soviet Union. source:http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/russians_ethnic_94.jpg

Russian Federation 1999. Crude Birth Rate by geographical region.

Source: http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/russia_birthrate_usaid_1999.pdf

Percent of population Hispanic in each county, United States 2000. Source: US Census Bureau.

Why might ethnic groups / minorities have a distinctive demography?

In the past, possibly / probably did not. Salient in current circumstances. Differential timing of demographic transitions Socio-economic characteristics ‘Minority status’ Direct / indirect effects of culture / religion

Broader significance Rise of ethnic consciousness since 19th century:

nationalism, independence movements, folklore collectors, revival of marginalised languages, ethnic statistics (Finnish, Welsh, Gaelic, Breton, Provencal, Cornish etc).

Ethnic identity emphasised by combination of large-scale immigration and civil rights since 1960s.

Development of ethnic categorisation, monitoring and legislation.

Political power issues from changing numbers, especially under democracy.

England 2011 Census – questions relating to origin What is your ethnic group? A.  White • English / Welsh / Scottish / Northern Irish / British •  • Irish •  • Gypsy or Irish Traveller •  • Any other White background, write in B. Mixed / multiple ethnic groups •  • White and Black Caribbean •  • White and Black African •  • White and Asian •  • Any other Mixed / multiple ethnic background,

write in C. Asian / Asian British •  • Indian •  • Pakistani •  • Bangladeshi •  • Chinese •  • Any other Asian background, write in •  D. Black / African / Caribbean / Black British • African •  • Caribbean •  • Any other Black / African / Caribbean

background, write in E. Other ethnic group •  • Arab •  • Any other ethnic group, write in

What is your religion? • No religion • Christian (including Church of England, Catholic,

Protestant and all other Christian denominations) • Buddhist • Hindu • Jewish • Muslim • Sikh • Any other religion, write in How would you describe your national identity? • English • Welsh • Scottish • Northern Irish • British • Other, write in What is your country of birth? • England • Wales • Scotland • Northern Ireland • Republic of Ireland • Elsewhere, write in the current name of country

US Census questions on race, Hispanic origin and ancestry

TFR trends of UK ethnic minority populations 1965 – 2006 data from Labour Force Survey by own-child method, 7-year moving averages

TFR ethnic minorities, UK 1965 - 2006 from LFS by own-child method; seven-year moving averages

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

WhiteBlack-CaribbeanBlack-AfricanIndianPakistaniBangladeshiChinese

UK Chinese TFR 1965 – 2006: asymptote 1.29

UK Chinese TFR 1965 - 2006, estimated and predicted values

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Chinese TFRPredicted Chinese TFR

Model = a+b/(1+exp(k*(t-T0))). R2 = 0.822Asymptotic predicted TFR = 1.29Upper bound 95% confidence interval = 1.487Lower bound 95% confidence interval = 1.084

Convergence in fertility? Source: US Bureau of the Census.

Total fertility trends by race and Hispanic origin, US 1960-2000. Source: US Bureau of the Census

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Black (mother)Black (child)American IndianAsia/Pacific IslanderHispanicNon-Hispanic WhiteAll races

Convergence in fertility: total fertility of Pakistani women in the UK by birthplace. Source: Coleman and Dubuc 2010.

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1970-74 1975-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99

period

TFR

and

95%

con

fiden

ce in

terv

al

Pakistani-born women in UKAll UK Pakistani womenUK-born Pakistani women

Indian population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

females males

Pakistani population, England and Wales Census 2001 (percent)

7.00 5.00 3.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 5.00 7.00

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

90 +

percent of population

males females

Population projections of New Zealand

New Zealand 2001-based projection by ethnic origin (revised 2005).Source: Statistics New Zealand 2005

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 (base) 2006 2011 2016 2021

EuropeanMaoriAsianPacificAll non-European

Ethnic change in the USA, projected 1999 - 2100

US population 1999 - 2100 Middle Series, ethnic group. Source; US Bureau of the Census 2000.

0.000

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

2053

2056

2059

2062

2065

2068

2071

2074

2077

2080

2083

2086

2089

2092

2095

2098

Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black NH American Indian NH Asian and Pacific NH

Comparison of results of European ‘foreign-origin’ projections

Projected growth of population of immigrant or foreign origin 2000-2050, selected countries, as percent of total population.

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

perc

ent

Germany medium variantUSA medium variant (excludes black population)Netherlands base scenarioDenmark 2002- based medium variantSweden foreign background 2004 basedAustria 'Compensating' scenario, no naturalisation.

UK population projection 2051 by age, sex and origin Assumptions for total population as GAD Principal Projection 2006 (net migration 190K;

TFR 1.84)

UK population 2051 projection by age and origin (1000s).Assumptions for total population: migration, TFR as in GAD Principal Projection 2008.

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85-89

90-94

95-99

100+

Males British origin Males foreign originFemales British origin Females foreign origin

A new demographic transition in the ‘West’?

First transition - vital rates ?Second transition - family, living

arrangements ?Third transition - population composition. - new ethnic groups of mixed origin - possible replacement of ‘majority’ group

Other transformations: ethnic groups of mixed origin, England and Wales 2001.

Source: 2001 Census.

All born in born born in born % of % of

birth- UK overseas UK overseas total non-white

places (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) (1000s) pop. pop.

All Mixed groups 661.0 524.3 136.7 79.3 20.7 1.3 14.6W/ Black Caribbean 237.4 222.9 14.5 93.9 6.1 0.5 5.3W/ Black African 78.9 52.9 26.0 67.1 32.9 0.2 1.7W/Asian 189.0 144.5 44.6 76.4 23.6 0.4 4.2Other mixed 155.7 104.0 51.7 66.8 33.2 0.3 3.4

Current unions outside own group, Great Britain 1991-96, 1997-02 (percent).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Black-Caribbean

Black-African Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese

perc

ent

Women 1991-1996 Women 1997-2002 Men 1991-1996 Men 1997-2002

Population of mixed Caribbean origin compared with all Caribbean origin (numbers and percent), England and Wales

2001. (source 2001 Census).

Unmixed Caribbean origin and Mixed Caribbean origin population, England and

Wales 2001 (thousands).

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0-4

10-1

4

20-2

4

30-3

4

40-4

4

50-5

4

60-6

4

70-7

4

80-8

4

90 +

Unmixed Caribbean origin Mixed white/Caribbean

Mixed and non-mixed population as percent of total Caribbean ethnic population, England

and Wales 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0-4

10-1

4

20-2

4

30-3

4

40-4

4

50-5

4

60-6

4

70-7

4

80-8

4

90 +

Mixed as percent of all Caribbean originNon-mixed as percent of all Caribbean origin

An end to ‘ethnic’ categories? The rise of mixed populations. Probabilistic projections of the UK 2001- 2100, average outcome for major groups

(percent). UK Version 2 probabilistic projection: mean of percent of each major ethnic

group in the total population, 2001 - 2100.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

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2075

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2090

2095

2100

WhiteBlackAsianMixed

Will all populations end up as diverse as Western countries?

Many were always diverse – more like empires than nation states (India)

Others became more diverse through 17th / 19th century colonial policy (Brazil, Malaysia)

Outside Europe, so far relatively small minorities from recent 20th century immigration: 2 – 3% of populations born abroad. ‘West’ currently receiving most immigrants (60%+)

Diversity can diminish, sometimes unpleasantly

Assimilation, intermixture (Huguenots). Diminished diversity within European boundaries in earlier

20th century; Versailles, World War 2 Some diminished diversity outside Europe - minorities (old

and new) expelled or massacred. Ancient populations (Greeks, Armenians, Kurds in Anatolia;

Christians in Iraq, Jews in Europe, Middle East) Colonial minorities (departure of whites from North Africa,

Angola, Mozambique, Zimbabwe) Departure of market-dominant minorities (East African

Asians, Chinese in Indonesia) Contrary trends: South Asian workers in Gulf states;

Filipinos, Indonesians in Malaysia.

Possible long term consequences

National identity – history, language, religion may develop in new directions in West, elsewhere persist in more ‘traditional’ patterns.

A new asymmetry in composition – diversity and mixed origin mostly in western countries?

More complex / difficult internal politics? Foreign policy and minority interests – an advantage

for non-Western countries? No global ‘third demographic transition’.

Really a significant change?

Migration from developing world over in a century (?); but effects on ancestry permanent.

Migration the key driver; in theory under policy control Significance for social and political change: religion, identity,

segregation, language, law, foreign policy? (depends on numbers, pace, origins, policy).

Integration / assimilation, or ‘community of communities’? And who adapts to whom?

Is parity or majority important? Inter-ethnic union may change relative group size, eventually

create a completely new mixed population. No ‘nature reserve’ for ‘aborigines’?

Racial Map of Europe (from Source Records of the Great War [National

Alumni, 1923] vol. 7)