Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E

Evaluation of concentrations of air pollutants and depositions of HMs over the EECCA and SEE

regions

Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E

EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia

Convention Action plan for EECCA countries (ECE.EB.AIR/WG.5/2007/17)

Involvement of EECCA/SEE countries in the Convention processes is one of the

priorities of CLRTAP

Programme for providing EECCA countries with practical and methodological support (EMEP)

Joint activities/workshops of EMEP Centres and national experts (emissions, monitoring, modelling … )

Participation of national experts in Task Forces including financial support from EMEP Dissemination of materials available in Russian

Expanding of EMEP monitoring network

Extension of EMEP domain to cover Central Asian countries


Inclusion of the Central Asian Countries in EMEP

domain

Monitoring network

Emission data

Model results and verification

Cooperation with Working Group of Effects

Contents


EMEP domain

Extension of EMEP domain

EMEP domain

135

11 111

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan Tajikistan



Extended EMEP domain

Information for the extended domain:

For 2005 - Pb

For 2006 and on - Pb, Cd and Hg

135

11 111 159

Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan



Requirements for emission reporting:

- Total emission data from a country

- Gridded emissions with 50-km resolution

- Sector emission data

- Information on large point sources

Emission data


“Guidelines for estimating and reporting emissions” (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2007/15)

“EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook”

Completeness of heavy metals emission data (totals for countries) for Pb, Cd and Hg in EECCA and SEE

countries (1990 - 2005)

Emission data

0

20

40

60

80

100

Be

laru

s

Re

pu

blic

of M

old

ova

Ru

ssia

n F

ed

era

tion

Cro

atia

Arm

en

ia

Ukr

ain

e

Alb

an

ia

Aze

rba

ijan

Bo

snia

an

d H

erz

eg

ovi

na

Ge

org

ia

Ka

zakh

sta

n

Kyr

gyz

sta

n

Se

rbia

an

d M

on

ten

eg

ro

Ta

jikis

tan

Th

e F

YR

of M

ace

do

nia

Tu

rkm

en

ista

n

Uzb

eki

sta

n

%


Emission data on lead in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005

Region Data sourceAdditional assumptions

Armenia, Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine

Official data

Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Russia (Eastern part)

Expert estimates (GEIA-1990)

Reduction rate from 1990 to 2005 as in Russia

Other EECCA and SEE countries

Expert estimates (TNO)

Interpolation between 2000 and 2010.

Emission data


0 200 400 600 800

Armenia Republic of Moldova

GeorgiaCroatia

Azerbaijan Albania

KyrgyzstanTurkmenistan

Belarus Bosnia and HerzegovinaThe FYR of Macedonia

TajikistanSerbia and Montenegro

UzbekistanUkraineRussia

KazakhstanKazakhstan (2)

Total emissions, t/y

Emissions of lead in 2005

Kazakhstan: – data for 2002-2006 are available

Emission data

kg/km2/y


EECCA and SEE countries Source of data

Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine

Official reporting

Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, The FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro

Expert estimates (TNO); Hg – Pacyna et al, 2000 (global data)

Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005

(over “old” EMEP domain)

Emission data



Extended EMEP domain

135

11 111 159

Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan



Expert estimates (TNO); Hg – Pacyna et al, 2000 (global data)

Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, The FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro

Official reportingBelarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine

Source of dataEECCA and SEE countries

Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005

(over “old” EMEP domain)

Emission data


0 5 10 15

Armenia

Albania

Republic of Moldova

Georgia

Belarus

Croatia

Azerbaijan

The FYR of Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia and Montenegro

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Russia


Emissions of mercury, 2005

Emission data

g/km2/y


0 20 40 60 80

Armenia

Republic of Moldova

Albania

Georgia

Croatia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Belarus

Azerbaijan

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Serbia and Montenegro

The FYR of Macedonia

Russia


Emissions of cadmium, 2005

Emission data

g/km2/y


Wind re-suspension of heavy metals (Pb, 2005)

Anthrop. emissionsWind re-suspension

~ 5.5 kt / y~ 9 kt / y

Data from EECCA and SEE (wind re-suspension, metal concentrations in soils …) are highly appreciated!

Emission data

kg/km2/y

kg/km2/y


Monitoring

Heavy metal monitoring network

EECCA countries

Planned stationsEMEP stations (2006)

SEE countries

DE1

0

5

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15

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19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

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98

20

00

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02

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04

Air

co

nc

., n

g/m

3

NO1

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19

90

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92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

Co

nc

. in

pre

cip

., m

g/l


“EMEP monitoring strategy and measurement programme 2004-2009” (EB.AIR/GE.1/2004/5)

“EMEP manual for sampling and chemical analysis” (http://www.nilu.no/projects/ccc/manual/index.html)

Modelling of heavy metal transboundary pollution (MSCE-HM)

Model output:

• Concentration and deposition fields

• Transboundary transport

• Long-term trends

• Ecosystem-dependent depositions

Detailed description:

Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., 2005. Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metaltransboundary air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-E Technical report 6/2005


0

0.5

1

1.5

2

22

.04

.05

06

.05

.05

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.05

.05

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.06

.05

17

.06

.05

01

.07

.05

15

.07

.05

29

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.08

.05

26

.08

.05

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.09

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16

.12

.05

Air

co

nc

en

tra

tio

ns

, n

g/m3

Observed

Modelled (anthrop + re-suspension)

Modelled (anthrop.)

Model verification

Comparison with measurement dataCd air concentrations (2005) at station CZ1 (Czech

Republic)

01.09.2005

CZ1

06.11.2005

CZ1


Uncertainty analysis

Model uncertainty ~ 30-40% (Pb, Cd)

Measurement uncertainty ~ 30 - 40 %

Emission data uncertainty ~ 2-3 раза

Model verification


Review of EMEP models (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4)“The HM model …. was appropriate for theoperational modelling of heavy metals at the regional scale”

Air concentrations of lead in 2005 (CAPACT)Model assessment


Depositions of lead in 2005.

Model assessment


Depositions Total emissions Precipitation

Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus)

Model assessment


Model assessment

Depositions Total emissions Precipitation

Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus)


Heavy metal deposition fluxes over EECCA and SEE countries (2005)

Pb0.2 – 2.1 kg/km2/y

Pb (mean value and scattering)

Cd3 – 160 g/km2/y

Hg2 – 30 g/km2/y

Model assessment

0.0

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1.0

1.5

2.0

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3.0

3.5

Bo

snia

_H

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ced

on

ia

Se

rbia

_a

nd

_M

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Cro

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Alb

an

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f_M

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Ukr

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Ge

org

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Be

laru

s

Kyr

gyz

sta

n

Arm

en

ia

Aze

rba

ijan

Ta

jikis

tan

Uzb

eki

sta

n

Ka

zakh

sta

n

Ru

ssia

Tu

rkm

en

ista

n

kg/k

m2/y

ea

r


Lead depositions from Kazakhstan sources in 2005

Transboundary transport of lead from Kazakhstan sources in 2005

Depositions of Pb from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 (CAPACT project)

Model assessment

Uzbekistan, 16 t3%

Turkmenistan, 5 t1%

Tajikistan, 3 t1%

Russia, 200 t31%

Kyrgyzstan, 21 t3%

Other regions, 65 t

10%

Outside model

domain, 92 t14%

Kazakhstan, 241 t37%


EMEP countries, 24 t

2%

Wind re-suspension,

290 t29%

Turkmemistan, 7 t1%

Uzbekistan, 42 t4%

Tajikistan, 10 t1%

Russia, 31 t3%

Kyrgyzstan, 7 t1%

Kazakhstan, 241 t24%

Asia and Africa, 362 t

35%

Contribution of transboundary transport to depositions from anthropogenic sources

Contribution of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution of lead over Central Asian countries

Iran, China, …

Model assessment

To improve these estimates - global-scale modelling


Main tasks:

Evaluate EMEP region pollution by external sources

Link global, regional, and local scales

Evaluate influence of European sources on remote regions

Provide estimates of intercontinental transport and levels of pollution on global scale

EMEP global model

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Rep

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_of_

Mol

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Cro

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Arm

enia

Geo

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Kyr

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tan

Alb

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Tur

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Aze

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Bel

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Ukr

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Her

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Kaz

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Con

trib

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n to

Pb

depo

sitio

n, %

Transboundary transport

National sources

Transboundary transport:Pb30 - 90 %

Cd15 - 95 %

Hg25 - 85 %

Contributions of transboundary transport and national sources to anthropogenic depositions in

EECCA and SEE countries (2005)

Pb

Model assessment


Global sources: 5 – 80%

Contribution to effect-based approach (in cooperation with the Working Group on Effects)

Depositions of lead to coniferous forests in 2005

0

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25

0.5

- 0

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0.7

- 0

.8

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- 1

.0

1.1

- 1

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- 1

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1.7

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.8

1.9

- 2

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2.1

- 2

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2.3

- 2

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2.5

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2.9

- 3

.0

Deposition range, kg/km2/y

Fra

cti

on

co

nif

ero

us

fo

res

ts

are

a, %

Belarus

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.5

- 0

.6

0.7

- 0

.8

0.9

- 1

.0

1.1

- 1

.2

1.3

- 1

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1.5

- 1

.6

1.7

- 1

.8

1.9

- 2

.0

2.1

- 2

.2

2.3

- 2

.4

2.5

- 2

.6

2.7

- 2

.8

2.9

- 3

.0


Fra

cti

on

of

co

nif

ero

us

fo

res

ts a

rea

, %

Croatia

0

5

10

15

20

25

0.5

- 0

.60

.7 -

0.8

0.9

- 1

.01

.1 -

1.2

1.3

- 1

.41

.5 -

1.6

1.7

- 1

.81

.9 -

2.0

2.1

- 2

.22

.3 -

2.4

2.5

- 2

.6

2.7

- 2

.82

.9 -

3.0


Fra

cti

on

of

co

nif

ero

us

fo

res

ts a

rea

, %

Kyrgyzstan


Depositions of lead to crop lands in 2005

Contribution to effect-based approach

0

10

20

30

40

< 0

.1

0.2

- 0

.3

0.4

- 0

.5

0.6

- 0

.7

0.8

- 0

.9

1.0

- 1

.1

1.2

- 1

.3

1.4

- 1

.5

1.6

- 1

.7

1.8

- 1

.9


Fra

cti

on

of

cro

pla

nd

are

a, % Armenia

0

10

20

30

40

< 0

.1

0.2

- 0

.3

0.4

- 0

.5

0.6

- 0

.7

0.8

- 0

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1.0

- 1

.1

1.2

- 1

.3

1.4

- 1

.5

1.6

- 1

.7

1.8

- 1

.9


Fra

cti

on

of

cro

pla

nd

are

a, % Croatia

0

10

20

30

40

< 0

.1

0.2

- 0

.3

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- 0

.5

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- 0

.7

0.8

- 0

.9

1.0

- 1

.1

1.2

- 1

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1.4

- 1

.5

1.6

- 1

.7

1.8

- 1

.9


Fra

cti

on

of

cro

pla

nd

are

a, % Kyrgyzstan


Country-specific reports

www.msceast.org


Detailed country-specific information

Emissions

Air concentrations

Deposition flux


Country’s emissions

Contribution of external sources

Belarus

Depositions from a country

Depositions to a country



Hietajarvi - FI92

Vuoskojarvi - FI95

Uto - FI9

Pesosjarvi - FI94

Virolahti II - FI17

Kotinen - FI93

Hailuoto - FI53

Pallas - FI96

Matorova - FI36

High Muffles - GB14

B anchory - GB91

East Ruston - GB 90

Schmucke - DE8

Deuselbach - DE4

Schauins land - DE3

B rotjacklriegel - DE5

Langenbrugge - DE2

Neuglobsow - DE7Zingst - DE9

Westrland - DE1

Spitsbergen, Zeppelinfjell - NO42

Svanvik - NO47Karasjok - NO55

Overbygd - NO92

Karvath - NO39Valdalen - NO93

Osen - NO41Hurdal - NO56

Ualand - NO95Birkenes - NO1Moscath - NO94

Lista - NO99

De Zilk - NL91

Kollumerwaard - NL9

Starina - SK6

Stara Lesna - SK4

Liesek - SK5

C hopok - SK2

Topolniky - SK7

Aspvreten - SE12

Gardsjon - SE97Rorvik - SE2

Vavihill - SE11

Arup - SE51

Bredkalen - SE5

Porspoder - FR90

Keldsnor - DK5

Anholt - DK8

Tange - DK3

Ulborg - DK31

Pedersker - DK20

Campisabalos - ES9

Niembro - ES8

St.Koloman - AT4

Illmitz - AT2

Vorhegg - AT5

Leba - PL4

Transboundary pollution by HMs and

POPs

CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION

EMEP Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe

Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East



Conclusions

Territories of the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan ) were entirely included into the EMEP domain

Emission data were officially reported by 6 EECCA and SEE countries. For other countries emission expert estimates were applied

Wind re-suspension can significantly contribute to heavy metal pollution levels in EECCA and SEE countries, especially in Central Asia. Collaboration of these countries with EMEP in the field of wind re-suspension evaluation is highly appreciated.

The work on establishment of several monitoring stations in EECCA and SEE countries is carried out under supervision of EMEP/CCC.


While monitoring network is scarce, measurement - modelling approach is used within EMEP.

Uncertainties of the emission data (a factor of 2-3) are much larger than those for model results and monitoring data (30 - 40%). In order to reduce uncertainties of pollution levels much attention should be paid by countries to quality of their national emission data

In EECCA and SEE countries the contribution of transboundary transport to heavy metal depositions from anthropogenic sources ranges from 15 to 95%. The accuracy of these values can be improved by means of global-scale modelling.

Detailed country-specific information for each country for 2006 will be available through the Internet (www.msceast.org). A hard copy of the country-specific reports can be prepared by request.

Conclusions (cont.)


Documents

Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E