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Trend analysis for HMs and POPs
Applications
I. Ilyin, EMEP / MSC-East
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
List of trend parametersParameters for trend characterization:
Relative reduction over the whole period (Rtot),
Relative annual reductions of contamination:
average over the period (Rav),
maximum (Rmax),
minimum (Rmin).
Relative contribution of seasonal variability (Fseas).
Relative contribution of random component (Frand).
Phase shift of maximum values of contamination with respect to the beginning of the year (φ).
Statistical tests:
Non-linearity parameter (NL) 10%
Relative contribution of seasonal variability (Fseas) 10%
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report
Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations
• Seasonality • Random component • Shift relative to beginning of year
Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates • Overall reduction
Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources.) Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation) Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations
• Seasonality • Random component • Shift relative to beginning of year
Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates • Overall reduction
Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. ) Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation) Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems
Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for the report
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Application of the analysis of trends to individual stations
Hg and B[a]P
- in air - wet deposition - collocated
Pb, Cd
Selection of stations: data available from 1990-1992 to 2008-2010 (Pb, Cd)
from 1996 to 2008-2010 (Hg, B[a]P)
Pb, Cd: 15 stations
Hg: 6 stations
B[a]P: 6 stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3
Observed
Observed air concentrations of Pb for station DE1 (Germany)
Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring stations
Analysis of modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Observed air concentrations of Pb their trend for station DE1 (Germany)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3
Observed
Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring
stations
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3
Observed
Observed (main component)
NL = 45%
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled air concentrations of Pb their trend for station DE1 (Germany)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3 Modelled
Modelled (main component)
NL = 43%
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring
stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Pb
No
n-l
ine
ari
rty
, %
Average among stations
Max among stations
Min among stations
Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring
stations
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
0
30
60
90
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
No
n-l
ine
ari
ty,
%
Observed
10%
Non-linearity: summary for HMs and POPs
0
30
60
90
Pb Cd Hg
No
n-l
ine
ari
ty,
%
Observed
10%
Air concentrations Wet deposition
Threshold value: 10%
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
0
30
60
90
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
No
n-l
ine
ari
ty,
%
Observed
10%
Non-linearity: summary for HMs and POPs
0
30
60
90
Pb Cd Hg
No
n-l
ine
ari
ty,
%
Observed
10%
Air concentrations Wet deposition
Threshold value: 10%
0
30
60
90
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
No
n-l
ine
ari
ty,
%
Observed
Modelled
10%
0
30
60
90
Pb Cd Hg
No
n-l
ine
ari
ty,
%
Observed
Modelled
10%
As a rule, trends of observed and modelled levels at stations are non-linear
Linear trend at all stations
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Non-linear trend at all stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Observed air concentrations and their trend, including seasonality for station DE1 (Germany)
Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring stations: seasonality
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3
ObservedObserved (trend)Observed (main component)
Cseas = 50%
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Air concentrations Wet deposition
Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
10%
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
10%
FI36, Hg in air
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
19
96
19
97
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3
ObservedObserved (trend)
Observed (annual component)
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Air concentrations Wet deposition
Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
10%
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
10%
CZ3, B[a]P in air
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n in
air
, ng
/m3
Observed Observed (trend)Observed (main component)
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
10%
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
Modelled
10%
Air concentrations Wet deposition
Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
10%
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg
Se
as
on
ali
ty,
%
Observed
Modelled
10%
FI36, Hg wet dep.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
We
t d
ep
os
itio
n, n
g/m
2 /mo
nth
ObservedObserved (trend)
Observed (annual component)
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Observed air concentrations and their trend, including seasonality for station DE1 (Germany)
Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring stations: random component
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3
ObservedObserved (trend)Observed (main component)
Crand = 66%
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Random component: summary for HMs and POPs
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
Ra
nd
om
co
mp
on
en
t, %
Observed
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg
Ra
nd
om
co
mp
on
en
t, %
Observed
0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg B[a]P
Ra
nd
om
co
mp
on
en
t, %
Observed
Modelled0
30
60
90
120
150
Pb Cd Hg
Ra
nd
om
co
mp
on
en
t, %
Observed
Modelled
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring stations: phase shift
Observed wet deposition and their trend, including seasonality for station NO39 (Norway)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
We
t d
ep
os
itio
n, g
/km
2 /mo
nth
Observed Observed (trend)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Δφ = ~6 months
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb, in air
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CZ
1
CZ
3
DE
1
DE
3
DE
7
DE
8
DE
9
DK
3
DK
31
GB
91
NL
9
SK
4
ObservedPb, in air
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
CZ
1
CZ
3
DE
1
DE
3
DE
7
DE
8
DE
9
DK
3
DK
31
GB
91
NL
9
SK
4
Observed
Modelled
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Month of maximum air concentrations of Pb trend in 1990-2010
Phase shifts: summary for all stations (Pb, air concentrations)
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Num
ber
of m
onth
with
max
imum
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, ng
/m3 Observed (trend)
Modelled (trend)
Δφmodel = 6 months
Trends of modelled and observed concentrations of Pb at DE3 (Germany)
DE3 is located at height 1200 m (but in the model at 550 m)
This station may characterize conditions mostly in free troposphere rather then in boundary layer
Possible explanation of difference in modelled and observed phase shifts (to be examined)
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Δφmodel ~ 1 month
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Concluding remarks
As a rule, trends of observed and modelled levels at stations are non-linear. Exception is concentrations of Hg in air
Trends of observed and modelled levels at stations exhibit substantial seasonal variability (except of Hg in air). The most pronounced seasonality is noted for B[a]P
Random component characterizes non-regular short-term seasonal meteorological variability
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for
the report Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations
• Seasonality • Random component • Shift relative to beginning of year
Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates • Overall reduction
Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. ) Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation) Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations
• Seasonality • Random component • Shift relative to beginning of year
Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates • Overall reduction
Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. ) Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation) Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems
Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for
the report
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the EMEP stations
• Seasonality • Random component • Shift relative to beginning of year
Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates • Overall reduction
Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission sources. ) Changes of transboundary transport Pollution levels caused by emission source categories Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)
Large Point Sources (LPS) Deposition to ecosystems
Information on long-term changes of HM and POP levels for
the report
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region
Cd, Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, g/k
m2 /m
on
th Deposition
B[a]P, Europe
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n in
air
, ng
/m3
Concentration
Pb, Europe
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.41
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
0
De
po
sit
ion
, kg
/km
2 /mo
nth Deposition
Hg, Europe
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, g/k
m2 /m
on
th Deposition
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region
Pb, Europe
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.41
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
0
De
po
sit
ion
, kg
/km
2 /mo
nth Deposition
Cd, Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, g/k
m2 /m
on
th Deposition
Hg, Europe
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, g/k
m2 /m
on
th DepositionB[a]P, Europe
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n in
air
, ng
/m3
Concentration
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
B[a]P, Europe
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n in
air
, ng
/m3 Concentration
Main component
Hg, Europe
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, g/k
m2 /m
on
th
Deposition
Main component
Cd, Europe
0
2
4
6
8
10
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, g/k
m2 /m
on
th
Deposition
Main component
Pb, Europe
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.41
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
0
De
po
sit
ion
, kg
/km
2 /mo
nth
Deposition
Main component
Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region
Reduction = 3.4% per yearReduction = 6 (5 – 7)% per year
Reduction = 1.2 (-3.2 – 3.9)% per yearReduction = 2.2 (1.1 – 3.1)% per year
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Slo
ven
iaL
uxe
mb
ou
rgU
nite
d_
Kin
gd
om
Fra
nce
Sp
ain
Be
lgiu
mA
ust
ria
Lith
ua
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
sIta
lyG
erm
an
yS
we
de
nF
inla
nd
Mo
na
coP
ort
ug
al
Ukr
ain
eD
en
ma
rkL
atv
iaN
orw
ay
Mo
nte
ne
gro
Re
p._
Mo
ldo
vaH
un
ga
ryIr
ela
nd
Est
on
iaB
ela
rus
Cro
atia
Cze
ch_
Re
p.
Slo
vaki
aP
ola
nd
Bo
snia
_H
erz
eg
ovi
na
Ro
ma
nia
Ru
ssia
Se
rbia
Gre
ece
Ma
ced
on
iaB
ulg
ari
aA
lba
nia
Cyp
rus
Ma
ltaIc
ela
nd
Tu
rke
yG
eo
rgia
Aze
rba
ijan
Arm
en
ia
Me
an
re
du
cti
on
ra
te,
% p
er
ye
ar
Mean reduction rate of pollution levels in the EMEP countries for 1990-2010
Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries
Average rate for period 1990-2010
Maximum (beginning of the period)
Minimum (end of the period)
Trends in the EMEP region
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Slo
ven
iaL
uxe
mb
ou
rgU
nite
d_
Kin
gd
om
Fra
nce
Sp
ain
Be
lgiu
mA
ust
ria
Lith
ua
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
sIta
lyG
erm
an
yS
we
de
nF
inla
nd
Mo
na
coP
ort
ug
al
Ukr
ain
eD
en
ma
rkL
atv
iaN
orw
ay
Mo
nte
ne
gro
Re
p._
Mo
ldo
vaH
un
ga
ryIr
ela
nd
Est
on
iaB
ela
rus
Cro
atia
Cze
ch_
Re
p.
Slo
vaki
aP
ola
nd
Bo
snia
_H
erz
eg
ovi
na
Ro
ma
nia
Ru
ssia
Se
rbia
Gre
ece
Ma
ced
on
iaB
ulg
ari
aA
lba
nia
Cyp
rus
Ma
ltaIc
ela
nd
Tu
rke
yG
eo
rgia
Aze
rba
ijan
Arm
en
ia
Me
an
re
du
cti
on
ra
te,
% p
er
ye
ar
Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries
Pb, Spain
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, kg
/km
2 /mo
nth
Data
Main component
Trends in the EMEP region
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Slo
ven
iaL
uxe
mb
ou
rgU
nite
d_
Kin
gd
om
Fra
nce
Sp
ain
Be
lgiu
mA
ust
ria
Lith
ua
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
sIta
lyG
erm
an
yS
we
de
nF
inla
nd
Mo
na
coP
ort
ug
al
Ukr
ain
eD
en
ma
rkL
atv
iaN
orw
ay
Mo
nte
ne
gro
Re
p._
Mo
ldo
vaH
un
ga
ryIr
ela
nd
Est
on
iaB
ela
rus
Cro
atia
Cze
ch_
Re
p.
Slo
vaki
aP
ola
nd
Bo
snia
_H
erz
eg
ovi
na
Ro
ma
nia
Ru
ssia
Se
rbia
Gre
ece
Ma
ced
on
iaB
ulg
ari
aA
lba
nia
Cyp
rus
Ma
ltaIc
ela
nd
Tu
rke
yG
eo
rgia
Aze
rba
ijan
Arm
en
ia
Me
an
re
du
cti
on
ra
te,
% p
er
ye
ar
Pb, Switzerland
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.21
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
0
De
po
sit
ion
, kg
/km
2 /mo
nth
Data
Main component
Trends in the EMEP region
Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
GB
DE
AM IE NL
LU CZ
BE
FR AL
AT
HU
NO
HR IS
MD
ES PL
CY
SK
CH
BA TR SI
TM
RS KZ
RU
MK
DK
SE LT BY
GR
RO
UA
BG
GE AZ
UZ
LV PT FI IT
EE
MT
MC
ME
Me
an
re
du
cti
on
ra
te, %
pe
r y
ea
r B[a]PB[a]P, Sweden
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n in
air
, ng
/m3 Data
Main componentSE2 / SE14
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
in
air
, n
g/m
3
Observed
Trend (main component)
Trends in the EMEP region
Rates of total deposition reduction of B[a]P in the EMEP countries
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
GB
DE
AM IE NL
LU CZ
BE
FR AL
AT
HU
NO
HR IS
MD
ES PL
CY
SK
CH
BA TR SI
TM
RS KZ
RU
MK
DK
SE LT BY
GR
RO
UA
BG
GE AZ
UZ
LV PT FI IT
EE
MT
MC
ME
Me
an
re
du
cti
on
ra
te, %
pe
r y
ea
r B[a]P B[a]P, Estonia
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n in
air
, ng
/m3 Data
Main component
Rates of total deposition reduction of B[a]P in the EMEP countries
Trends in the EMEP region
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Mean among countries
Maximum among countries
Minimum among countries
95 percentile
5 percentile
Average among countries
25 percentile
75 percentile
Average reduction rate and overall reduction in the EMEP countries for 1990-
2010Mean annual reduction rates
in countries
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Average reduction rate and overall reduction in the EMEP countries for 1990-
2010Mean annual reduction rates
in countriesOverall reduction in
countries for 1990-2010
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Meteorological variability
Secondary emission sources
Anthropogenic emissions
Main factors affecting trends:
Transboundary transport
Changes in atmospheric composition
Non-EMEP sources (boundary conditions)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Pb, Europe
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Dim
en
sio
nle
ss e
mis
sio
n .
Emission
Dimensionless emission of Pb in Europe
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb, Europe
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Dim
en
sio
nle
ss d
ep
osi
tion
an
d e
mis
sio
n .
Deposition
Emission
Factors affecting long-term trends
Dimensionless emission and deposition of Pb in Europe
Deposition reduction is smaller
Deposition trend is less smooth
Compared to the emission trend:
Main factors affecting deposition trends:
Anthropogenic emissions
Meteorological variability
Secondary emission sources
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Model calculations for 1990-2010 to determine influence of factors affecting trends
Anthrop. emission
MeteoSecondary
sources
Effect of anthrop. emission
Effect of meteorology
Effect of secondary emission
Varies
Varies
Varies
Fixed Fixed
Fixed Fixed
Fixed Fixed
“Fixed” – relates to 1990
Factors affecting long-term trends
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb deposition in Europe
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sitio
n f
lux,
dim
en
sio
nle
ss .
Deposition
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74%
Factors affecting long-term trends
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb deposition in Europe
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sitio
n f
lux,
dim
en
sio
nle
ss .
Deposition
Effect of anthrop. emisison
Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74%
Major factor of Pb long-term changes is anthropogenic emission
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
Factors affecting long-term trends
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb deposition in Europe
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sitio
n f
lux,
dim
en
sio
nle
ss .
Deposition
Effect of meteorol. variability
Effect of anthrop. emisison
Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74%
Major factor of Pb long-term changes is anthropogenic emission
Meteorological variability responsible for ±10% of deposition in Europe as a whole
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
Factors affecting long-term trends
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Pb deposition in Europe
-0.8
-0.7
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
De
po
sitio
n f
lux,
dim
en
sio
nle
ss .
DepositionEffect of meteorol. variabilityEffect of anthrop. emisisonEffect of secondary emissions
Overall reduction of Pb deposition ~74%
Major factor of Pb long-term changes is anthropogenic emission
Meteorological variability responsible for ±10% of deposition in Europe as a whole
Effect of secondary sources is explained by long-term decline of concentrations in soils
In countries of Europe the effect of these factors may be different
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
Factors affecting long-term trends
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels
Reduction of Pb deposition 1990 and 2010 in the EMEP region
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Slo
ven
iaS
witz
erla
nd
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Est
on
iaF
ran
ceB
ela
rus
Un
ited
_K
ing
do
mF
inla
nd
Be
lgiu
mC
roa
tiaA
ust
riaL
atv
iaU
kra
ine
Re
pu
blic
_o
f_M
old
oL
ithu
an
iaG
erm
an
yM
on
aco
Hu
ng
ary
Italy
Mo
nte
ne
gro
Bo
snia
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erz
eg
ovi
na
Ire
lan
dN
eth
erla
nd
sS
we
de
nD
en
ma
rkS
pa
inU
zbe
kist
an
Cze
ch_
Re
pu
blic
Ro
ma
nia
Kyr
gyz
sta
nA
lba
nia
Slo
vaki
aT
ajik
ista
nR
uss
iaN
orw
ay
Ka
zakh
sta
nF
YR
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ace
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nia
Po
lan
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ort
ug
al
Bu
lga
riaT
urk
me
nis
tan
Gre
ece
Ma
ltaA
rme
nia
Ge
org
iaT
urk
ey
Ice
lan
dA
zerb
aija
nC
ypru
s
Pb
de
po
sit
ion
ch
an
ge
, %
.
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Reduction of Pb deposition caused by changes of national, foreign and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and
2010 in countries of the EMEP region
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Slo
ven
iaS
witz
erla
nd
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Est
on
iaF
ran
ceB
ela
rus
Un
ited
_K
ing
do
mF
inla
nd
Be
lgiu
mC
roa
tiaA
ust
riaL
atv
iaU
kra
ine
Re
pu
blic
_o
f_M
old
oL
ithu
an
iaG
erm
an
yM
on
aco
Hu
ng
ary
Italy
Mo
nte
ne
gro
Bo
snia
_H
erz
eg
ovi
na
Ire
lan
dN
eth
erla
nd
sS
we
de
nD
en
ma
rkS
pa
inU
zbe
kist
an
Cze
ch_
Re
pu
blic
Ro
ma
nia
Kyr
gyz
sta
nA
lba
nia
Slo
vaki
aT
ajik
ista
nR
uss
iaN
orw
ay
Ka
zakh
sta
nF
YR
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ace
do
nia
Po
lan
dS
erb
iaP
ort
ug
al
Bu
lga
riaT
urk
me
nis
tan
Gre
ece
Ma
ltaA
rme
nia
Ge
org
iaT
urk
ey
Ice
lan
dA
zerb
aija
nC
ypru
s
Pb
de
po
sit
ion
ch
an
ge
, %
.
National Foreign Non-EMEP and Secondary
U.K.
0
20
40
60
80
100Deposition of Pb
Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels
Factors affecting long-term trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, k
g/k
m2/y
N-E & S
Foreign
National
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Slo
ven
iaS
witz
erla
nd
Lu
xem
bo
urg
Est
on
iaF
ran
ceB
ela
rus
Un
ited
_K
ing
do
mF
inla
nd
Be
lgiu
mC
roa
tiaA
ust
riaL
atv
iaU
kra
ine
Re
pu
blic
_o
f_M
old
oL
ithu
an
iaG
erm
an
yM
on
aco
Hu
ng
ary
Italy
Mo
nte
ne
gro
Bo
snia
_H
erz
eg
ovi
na
Ire
lan
dN
eth
erla
nd
sS
we
de
nD
en
ma
rkS
pa
inU
zbe
kist
an
Cze
ch_
Re
pu
blic
Ro
ma
nia
Kyr
gyz
sta
nA
lba
nia
Slo
vaki
aT
ajik
ista
nR
uss
iaN
orw
ay
Ka
zakh
sta
nF
YR
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ace
do
nia
Po
lan
dS
erb
iaP
ort
ug
al
Bu
lga
riaT
urk
me
nis
tan
Gre
ece
Ma
ltaA
rme
nia
Ge
org
iaT
urk
ey
Ice
lan
dA
zerb
aija
nC
ypru
s
Pb
de
po
sit
ion
ch
an
ge
, %
.
National Foreign Non-EMEP and Secondary
Reduction of Pb deposition caused by changes of national, foreign and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and
2010 in countries of the EMEP region
Latvia
0
20
40
60
80
100 Deposition of Pb
Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of pollution levels
Factors affecting long-term trends
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
De
po
sit
ion
, k
g/k
m2/y
N-E & S
Foreign
National
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Changes in key source categories
Contribution of source categories to HM deposition in EMEP countries
0 10 20 30 40
Energyproduction
Combustionin industry
Metalproduction
Non-industrial
combustion
Wasteincineration
Other
Hg deposition, t/y
Mercury
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Roadtransport
Metalproduction
Combustionin industry
Energyproduction
Non-industrial
combustion
Other
Pb deposition, kt/y
1990
2010
Lead
18
