Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

(GECAFS)

Polly EricksenGECAFS IPO, University of Oxford

Food security…

... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.

(World Food Summit 1996)

... is underpinned by Food Systems.

Food Security

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

Environmental Security /

Natural Capital• Ecosystems

stocks, flows• Ecosystem

services• Access to

natural capital

Social Welfare• Income• Employment • Wealth• Social & political

capital• Human capital

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology

Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demandDistributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade

Consuming food: preparation, consumption

Food Systems compriseActivities and Outcomes

Ericksen, P. 2008.Global Environmental Change 18

Elements of ACCESS to food

Characteristics of food security

element

Major determinants

Driver of determinants

Affordability Staple grains are cheap if imported; expensive if local.

Costs of local production higher than external. Income determines purchased quantity.

Food System activity: Producing.

Social welfare: income.

Allocation Most food only available in supermarkets.

Supermarket chains dominate in urban areas; local markets have been driven out of business.

Food System activity: Retailing.

Preference Fish and rice are traditional foods.

Cultural preferences; agro-ecosystem characteristics.

Social welfare: Social capital.

Ecosystem services.

Using the Food Systems framework – (hypothetical example)

(Source: adapted from Ingram & Brklacich, 2002; Ericksen, 2008)

Capacity to cope

with, and adapt to,

GEC

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude

of environmental threats

FOOD SYSTEMRESILIENCE /

VULNERABILITY

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc.

Exposureto GEC

Vulnerability of the Food System to GEC

Vulnerability of the food system to GECis mediated by coping capacity

Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.

Example: Nutritional diversity (milk) in the Indo-Gangetic Plain

Milk production is sensitive to drought (it decreases)

Rural areas:

Urban areas:

Weak coping capacity• weak markets• poor infrastructure• low income• poor storage or processing

HIGH vulnerability• access to milk decreases• nutritional value decreases

Strong coping capacity• robust markets• sufficient infrastructure• higher income• good storage and processing

LOW vulnerability• access to milk maintained• nutritional value maintained

Food security outcome

Adaptation to GEC

• Is aimed at reducing the vulnerability of food systems to stresses

• Requires adaptive capacity of individual actors and…

• An enabling institutional and policy environment

Adaptation to reduce vulnerability of food system outcomes

Food Security determinant

GEC Stress to which determinant will be increasingly exposed

Sensitivity to stress (future)

Adaptation options

Adaptive capacity

Future vulnerability

Nutritional value[Utilisation]e.g. Main protein (pulses)

Affordability[Access]e.g. Household incomes

Production[Availability]e.g. Irrigation potential in Haryana

RESEARCHERS

ACTORS

STATE

PRIVATE SECTOR

NGO/ CIVILSOCIETY

RESOURCEMANAGERS(FARMERS)

ACTIVITIES

PRODUCING

PROCESSING &PACKAGING

DISTRIBUTING &RETAILING

CONSUMING

OUTCOMES

ACCESS-Affordability-Allocation-Preference

AVAILABILITY-Production-Distribution-Exchange

UTILIZATION-Nutritional Value-Social Value-Food Safety

EnvironmentSocial Welfare

Analysing Food Systemsin context of drivers and feedbacks

Source: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing

Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing

Consuming

Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental

Security, and other Societal Interests

FoodAccess

FoodUtilisation

FoodAvailability

EnvironWelfare

Social Welfare

SocioeconomicDRIVERS

Changes in:Demographics, Economics,

Socio-political context, Cultural context

Science & Technology

DRIVERS’Interactions

GEC DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level

‘Natural’DRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Environmental feedbackse.g. water quality, GHGs

Socioeconomic feedbackse.g. livelihoods, social cohesion

ImprovedEnvironmental

Benefits

ImprovedSocial

Benefits

ImprovedFood Security

Current food systems

Adapted food systems

Trade-offs

Adaptation involves tradeoffs

• How will GEC affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

• How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

• What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

GECAFS“Fundamental Questions”

Env & Socio-economicConditions

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks

Adaptation

“It depends…”

where, by when, by how much, how fast, … => Regional research

GECAFS Regional Science Plan & Implementation Strategy

Policy-relevant research at national and regional-levels

Focus on vulnerability/impacts, adaptation and feedbacks

Based on improved conceptual understanding and methods

Innovative research partnerships

GECAFS IGP Study Districtscapture trends in socioeconomic &

biophysical conditions across the IGP

Gujarat, PunjabPakistan

• wheat• high ag inputs & effective institutions

• variable water availability• changes in snow/glacier melt

• rising GHG emissions

Vaishali, BiharIndia

• rice• low infrastructure & investment

• low income levels• out migration of labour

• little government policy support• seasonal flooding

• variable water availability

Greater FaridpurBangladesh

• rice• low income levels• institutions failing

• drought• seasonal flooding

• sea level & salt water intrusion

Rohini Basin, TeraiNepal

• rice/wheat• out-migration of labour

• seasonal flooding• variable water availability

Ludhiana, PunjabIndia

• rice/wheat• stagnant productivity growth

• high ag inputs & effective institutions• variable water availability

• groundwater depletion• changes in snow/glacier melt

• rising GHG emissions