Global Environmental Change Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS)and Food Systems (GECAFS)

Vulnerability WorkshopVulnerability Workshop

The Caribbean Food System: The Caribbean Food System: Background, Socio-economic Issues Background, Socio-economic Issues

and Vulnerability to GECand Vulnerability to GEC

Ranjit Singh (UWI, Trinidad)Ranjit Singh (UWI, Trinidad)

Adrian Trotman (CIMH, Barbados)Adrian Trotman (CIMH, Barbados)

The Caribbean Region

Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Physical)(Physical)

Country Population, Total

Surface area (sq.

km.)

Forest area (sq.

km.)

Annual deforestation (% of change)

Antigua & Barbuda 68,487 440 N/A N/ABarbados 268,200 430 N/A N/ADominica 73,000 750 460 0.8Grenada 98,000 340 50 0Guyana 761,000 215,000 168,800 0.3Jamaica* 2, 600,000 10,990 N/A N/ASt. Kitts & Nevis 41,000 360 40 0St. Lucia 156,000 620 90 4.3St. Vincent 115,000 390 60 1.5Trinidad & Tobago 1,300,000 5,130 2,590 0.8

* (figures available up to 1999)

Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 Country Profile Table - CARICOM 2000 (Economic Indicators)(Economic Indicators)

CountryGDP (current US

mn$)

Agriculture, value added (% of GDP)

Export of Goods and services (%

of GDP)

Imports of goods and services (%

of GDP)

Antigua & Barbuda 666.3 4 71.2 85.8

Barbados 2,600 6.3 50.7 56

Dominica 268.3 17.4 51.1 64.5

Grenada 406.6 7.8 58 74.8

Guyana 712.7 31.1 96.1 110.7

Jamaica* 7.4 7 42 52

St. Kitts & Nevis 328.4 3.4 49.8 76

St. Lucia 707.1 7.9 55.7 65.5

St. Vincent 337 10.8 52.9 60.1

Trinidad & Tobago 7.7 BN 1.6 62.1 45.2

*(figures available up to 1999)

Regional characterisationRegional characterisation

Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Belize)Many small island states (apart from Guyana and Belize) Diverse cultures, environments and food provision systemsDiverse cultures, environments and food provision systems Great dependence on food importsGreat dependence on food imports Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food sectors Reliance on export crops, tourism & other non-food sectors

(e.g. minerals) to provide revenue(e.g. minerals) to provide revenue Susceptibility to weather extremesSusceptibility to weather extremes Susceptibility to changes in preferential export marketsSusceptibility to changes in preferential export markets Weak regional-level institutional connectivityWeak regional-level institutional connectivity

Major Sources of Foreign Major Sources of Foreign Exchange:Exchange:

Agricultural exportsAgricultural exports TourismTourism Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the Exception: Trinidad and Tobago where the

energy sector is dominant:energy sector is dominant: OilOil Gas (LNG)Gas (LNG) MethanolMethanol AmmoniaAmmonia

Caribbean Agricultural Exports Caribbean Agricultural Exports Dominated by Traditional Dominated by Traditional Commodities:Commodities:

Major: Major: (sold under preferential market)(sold under preferential market) Sugar Sugar BananasBananas

Other: Other: (sold under non-preferential (sold under non-preferential market)market)

RiceRice Coffee beansCoffee beans Cocoa beansCocoa beans

The Caribbean Region: A Net The Caribbean Region: A Net Importer of FoodImporter of Food

(US $ Billion)(US $ Billion)

19991999 20002000

CARICOMCARICOM ImportsImports 2.9562.956 2.0612.061

ExportsExports 1.0921.092 1.2231.223

CaribbeanCaribbean ImportsImports 3.3503.350

ExportsExports 1.9471.947

Caribbean Food Imports Caribbean Food Imports Dominated By:Dominated By:

Cereal: wheat & corn Cereal: wheat & corn Food & livestock feedFood & livestock feed

Oils: soyabean and cornOils: soyabean and corn Meat ProductsMeat Products

Market Liberalization: WTO 1995Market Liberalization: WTO 1995

Removal of support for agricultureRemoval of support for agriculture Lowering of tariffs on importsLowering of tariffs on imports Dismantling of market preferences Dismantling of market preferences

under ACP/EU protocolunder ACP/EU protocol

Impact of Liberalization: BananaImpact of Liberalization: Banana

Banana industry unable to compete at non-Banana industry unable to compete at non-preferential pricespreferential prices

Decline in earnings:Decline in earnings:– St. Lucia: (EC)$184 mn in 1992 to 43 mn in St. Lucia: (EC)$184 mn in 1992 to 43 mn in

20012001– Windward islands (group): EC$ 316 mn in 1992 Windward islands (group): EC$ 316 mn in 1992

to 102 mn in 2001to 102 mn in 2001

Impact of Liberalization: SugarImpact of Liberalization: Sugar

Preferential EU market includes: Preferential EU market includes: Protocol sugarProtocol sugar SPS sugarSPS sugar

Declining sugar prices: earnings from sugar export Declining sugar prices: earnings from sugar export have declined by 25% in the past 8 yearshave declined by 25% in the past 8 years

Reduced quota: CARICOM exports of SPS have Reduced quota: CARICOM exports of SPS have declined by 15% each year since the introduction declined by 15% each year since the introduction of EBAof EBA

SPS quota likely to be fully re-allocated to EBA SPS quota likely to be fully re-allocated to EBA countries by 2009countries by 2009

Overall ImpactOverall Impact

Declining productionDeclining production Declining incomesDeclining incomes Increasing levels of Increasing levels of

poverty/unemploymentpoverty/unemployment Increasing incidence of malnutritionIncreasing incidence of malnutrition

Priority Policy Goals for CARICOMPriority Policy Goals for CARICOM

Food securityFood security Enhancing productivity and international Enhancing productivity and international

competitiveness in agriculturecompetitiveness in agriculture Food safetyFood safety Rural employmentRural employment Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector Sustainability of the food/agricultural sector

and rural communitiesand rural communities

Observational evidence indicates that Observational evidence indicates that regional changes in climate have already regional changes in climate have already

affected many physical and biological affected many physical and biological systemssystems

Shrinkage of glaciersShrinkage of glaciers Thawing of permafrostThawing of permafrost Later freezing and earlier breakup of ice on rivers and Later freezing and earlier breakup of ice on rivers and

lakeslakes Lengthening of mid to high latitude growing seasonsLengthening of mid to high latitude growing seasons Poleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal rangesPoleward and altitudinal shifts of plant and animal ranges Declines of some plant and animal populationsDeclines of some plant and animal populations Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects and, egg Earlier flowering of trees, emergence of insects and, egg

laying in birdslaying in birds

Aspects of GEC of particular concern to Aspects of GEC of particular concern to the Caribbean regionthe Caribbean region

Changing climate variabilityChanging climate variability Changes in mean climate (including global change)Changes in mean climate (including global change) Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking of Changes in the frequency, intensity and tracking of

tropical cyclonestropical cyclones and other extreme weather events and other extreme weather events Sea level riseSea level rise GEC and social impacts on land and water resources GEC and social impacts on land and water resources

and availabilityand availability

VulnerabilityVulnerability Increase in atmospheric temperatureIncrease in atmospheric temperature

– Global average surface temp. projected to warm 1.4-5.8 °C by Global average surface temp. projected to warm 1.4-5.8 °C by 2100 relative to 19902100 relative to 1990

– Changes in crop responsesChanges in crop responses– Heat stress in livestockHeat stress in livestock– Greater change further poleward which may imply change in Greater change further poleward which may imply change in

markets, competition from what were existing or potential markets, competition from what were existing or potential marketsmarkets

Increased sea surface temperaturesIncreased sea surface temperatures– Damage to coral reefsDamage to coral reefs– Losses of current marine/fishing speciesLosses of current marine/fishing species– Loss of tourist attraction (diving and snorkeling)Loss of tourist attraction (diving and snorkeling)– Changing species (non-reef)Changing species (non-reef)

VulnerabilityVulnerability

Tropical storms and hurricanesTropical storms and hurricanes– Increased frequency and intensitiesIncreased frequency and intensities– Greater infrastructural damageGreater infrastructural damage– Losses of agricultural productionLosses of agricultural production

Other severe systemsOther severe systems– Reports of greater intensities without necessarily an Reports of greater intensities without necessarily an

increase in annual rainfallincrease in annual rainfall– FloodingFlooding– Runoff and erosionRunoff and erosion

VulnerabilityVulnerability

Sea level riseSea level rise– Global average sea level projected to rise 0.09-0.88m by 2100Global average sea level projected to rise 0.09-0.88m by 2100

– Small islands with loss of significant land area, most Small islands with loss of significant land area, most cities situated near sea portscities situated near sea ports

– In the case of Guyana loss of capital city of majority of In the case of Guyana loss of capital city of majority of agricultureagriculture

– Salt water intrusionSalt water intrusion– Destruction of beaches, losses to tourismDestruction of beaches, losses to tourism

VulnerabilityVulnerability

DroughtDrought– Often associated with ENSO (in conjunction Often associated with ENSO (in conjunction

with NAO) eventswith NAO) events– Crop and livestock losses in states whose Crop and livestock losses in states whose

agricultural production are mainly rainfedagricultural production are mainly rainfed– Agriculture water competing with domestic, Agriculture water competing with domestic,

tourism and other industriestourism and other industries

Temperature and Rainfall Trends since 1950Temperature and Rainfall Trends since 1950Petersen et. al 2001Petersen et. al 2001

5-Year Running Totals

0

5

10

15

20

5-Year Period Ending

No. o

f Cyc

lone

s

Tropical Cyclones from 1900 to 2000Tropical Cyclones from 1900 to 200010-20 10-20 ooN; 55-65 N; 55-65 ooWW

H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)

Annual Average RainfallGrantley Adams Airport

1197.3 1203.2 1229.8 1195.8

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Overall El Nino El Nino+1 Non El Nino

Annual Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO yearsAnnual Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO yearsH Burton, S Burton (CIMH)H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)

Wet Season Average RainfallGrantley Adams Airport

759.0 760.7 760.9 758.6

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Overall El Nino El Nino+1 Non El Nino

Wet Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO yearsWet Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO yearsH Burton, S Burton (CIMH)H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)

Dry Season Average RainfallGrantley Adams Airport

192.9

250.5

155.7178.6

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Overall El Nino El Nino+1 Non El Nino

Dry Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO yearsDry Season Rainfall during ENSO and Non-ENSO yearsH Burton, S Burton (CIMH)H Burton, S Burton (CIMH)

10 Year Moving average of Rainfall from 1850s to 1990s10 Year Moving average of Rainfall from 1850s to 1990sS Burton (CIMH)S Burton (CIMH)

Caribbean Food Systems ProjectCaribbean Food Systems Project

Overarching GECAFS QuestionsOverarching GECAFS Questions

Theme 1:Theme 1: How will GEC (especially land degradation, How will GEC (especially land degradation, variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature, variability in rainfall distribution, sea surface temperature, tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of tropical storms and sea-level rise) affect vulnerability of food systems in the Caribbean?food systems in the Caribbean?

Theme 2:Theme 2: What combinations of policy and technical What combinations of policy and technical diversification in food harvested and traded for local diversification in food harvested and traded for local consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would consumption, in export commodities and in tourism would best provide effective adaptation strategies?best provide effective adaptation strategies?

Theme 3:Theme 3: What would be the consequences of these What would be the consequences of these combinations on national and regional food provision, local combinations on national and regional food provision, local livelihoods and natural resource degradation?livelihoods and natural resource degradation?

Story lines developed for two spatial levels:Story lines developed for two spatial levels:Local and RegionalLocal and Regional

STORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVELSTORY LINE 1: LOCAL LEVEL

Target: Food systems in Target: Food systems in resource-poor communities resource-poor communities based on fishing and locally-based on fishing and locally-produced food crops.produced food crops.

Aim: To reduce food system Aim: To reduce food system vulnerability, especially in vulnerability, especially in relation to changes in climate relation to changes in climate variability.variability.

STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL STORY LINE 2: REGIONAL LEVELLEVEL

Target:Target: Caribbean regional food Caribbean regional food provision.provision.

Aim:Aim: To develop regional-To develop regional-level strategies to reduce the level strategies to reduce the additional additional complications GEC complications GEC would bring to regional food would bring to regional food provision, given changing provision, given changing preferential export markets.preferential export markets.

GECAFS QuestionsGECAFS QuestionsLocal LevelLocal Level

Theme 1Theme 1 How would changes in climate variability and How would changes in climate variability and water availability affect food systems of communities on water availability affect food systems of communities on different islands?different islands?

Theme 2Theme 2 How would current national and regional policy How would current national and regional policy instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes, instruments (e.g. access to markets, insurance schemes, EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of EEZs) best be adjusted to enhance the effectiveness of technical options for diversifying cropping systems and technical options for diversifying cropping systems and fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?fisheries so as to reduce vulnerability to GEC?

Theme 3Theme 3 To what extent would these strategies affect To what extent would these strategies affect food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local food provision by altering the proportional reliance on local vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land vs. imported commodities, and how would changed land management and associated changes in runoff affect coastal management and associated changes in runoff affect coastal fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology and fisheries and other aspects of coastal zone ecology and tourism income based on this?tourism income based on this?

Theme 1Theme 1 What additional factors would GEC bring to What additional factors would GEC bring to destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what destabilise the region’s food system, and in particular what would be their impact on revenue generation from different would be their impact on revenue generation from different cash commodities?cash commodities?

Theme 2Theme 2 How could regional institutional changes best How could regional institutional changes best be introduced to sustain regional food provision by be introduced to sustain regional food provision by maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?maximising diversification options and inter-island trade?

Theme 3Theme 3 How would changes in intra-regional trade, How would changes in intra-regional trade, and in policy and technical development at a regional level and in policy and technical development at a regional level affect development in individual islands, and how could affect development in individual islands, and how could such changes be promoted to conserve the natural such changes be promoted to conserve the natural resource base of the region?resource base of the region?

GECAFS QuestionsGECAFS QuestionsRegional LevelRegional Level

Regional Response: ChallengesRegional Response: Challenges

Diversification challenges:Diversification challenges: Difficulty of achieving economics of scaleDifficulty of achieving economics of scale

Production characterized by small fragmented farmsProduction characterized by small fragmented farms

Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and Sloping and hilly terrain limit mechanization and labour-saving technologylabour-saving technology

Market access/penetration constraintsMarket access/penetration constraints Shipping/handling costsShipping/handling costs Quality issuesQuality issues Lack of critical export volumesLack of critical export volumes

Regional Response: Challenges Regional Response: Challenges (Continued)(Continued)

Rapid conversion of best arable lands to Rapid conversion of best arable lands to housing/built developmenthousing/built development

Problem of losses from crop/livestock larcenyProblem of losses from crop/livestock larceny Declining water resource availabilityDeclining water resource availability

Degradation of watershedsDegradation of watersheds

Weak R&D and Innovation SupportWeak R&D and Innovation Support Weak linkage of agrifood sector with tourismWeak linkage of agrifood sector with tourism