BFP grant – GECAFS Objectives

1. Improve understanding of vulnerability of food systems to the stresses induced by GEC

2. Document food systems and analyze interactions w/ water stress and management

3. Develop methodology for basin-scale analysis based on five diverse case studies

BFP grant: outputs

• 1.1: Literature review (delayed)• 1.2: conceptual framework – in

progress• 2.1: five case studies – in progress• 3.1: analysis of diversity across

regional sites – in progress• Two regional workshops: December

2005, June 2005

Outline of mid-term report

• Site selection rationale and brief description (3 pages and 4 tables and map)

• Food system characterization – in progress– Outcomes matrix to date, with source of data (with

justification from literature or expert opinion )– Activities (as far as you can)– Preliminary identification of most important activities,

actors and outcome determinants and note gaps (even if not important)

– Steps to complete

• Plan and methods for vulnerability assessment

Mid-term report (2)

• DUE to Polly Ericksen, GECAFS, by 30 January (pjer@ceh.ac.uk)

• Food system characterization will also be reviewed by Varsha Joshi for accuracy and completeness (understanding that it still in progress)

Work plan for Vulnerability Assessment

• Prepare first draft today

• Submit second draft for comments to Polly Ericksen with mid-term report, including time and budget.

Vulnerability Work Plan

• Contents should include:– Method to identify vulnerable parameters– Data source/ process to validate that these

parameters are vulnerable and how– Quantitative or qualitative?– Relationship between poverty and

vulnerability of the food systems

Review of IGP research

Q1: How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions?

Q2: How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security?

Q3: What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

Fundamental GECAFS Questions

GECAFS Research Framework

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

Vulnerability & Impacts

Feedbacks

Adaptation

DecisionSupport

1. Conceptual & Methodological Research

i. Food Systems Conceptsii. Vulnerability Conceptsiii. Scenario Constructioniv. Decision Support Systems

2. Food Systems Research in

i. Indo-Gangetic Plainii. Caribbeaniii. Southern Africa

GECAFS Research Approaches

GECAFS Indo-Gangetic Plain Project in relation to GECAFS Conceptual Research

GECAFSIGP Research

Research proposals

GECAFS DSS

Research

GECAFS Food Systems &

Vulnerability Research

GECAFS Scenarios Research

IGP SPIS

• GECAFS Science Plan and Implementation Strategy published early 2005.

• Provides a framework for regional strategies

• IGP main science questions identified

• Regional SPIS would link/ provide coherence on work from multiple proposals

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

What will be the consequences of changed water management on rural livelihoods, intra-regional trade, GHG emissions and water tables?

How will climate variability affect change in water demand in IGP food systems?

How can changes in water management (e.g. though policy instruments and/or agronomic aspects) reduce vulnerability of rice-wheat productivity to climate variability?

IGP Western Sub-Region Characterisation and GECAFS Questions

• high productivity – food surplus region• high investment in infrastructure• major use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigation• in-migration of labour

Conditions&

Scenarios

CurrentFood Systems

AdaptedFood Systems

How would diversification effect rural incomes, labour migration, water quality and regional biodiversity?

How will climate variability affect vulnerability of resource-poor farmers to flooding?

What are the market opportunities, social constraints and technical options for diversifying crops (e.g. aquaculture) to make more effective use of flood and groundwater?

IGP Eastern Sub-Region Characterisation and GECAFS Questions

• low productivity – food deficit region• poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water• high risk of flooding• out-migration of labour

Plans for June Meeting

• Consolidation of work under the BFP and transition to APN grant

• Goals:– Share understandings on vulnerability of food

systems– Work on Objective 3– Deeper analysis of GEC and water issues– Method to links to stakeholders and develop DSS– Introduction to scenarios

Question for discussion

• Who are the decision makers that GECAFS should be linking to?

• Nominate two people from your district to invite in June

• In July will hold small district-level workshops on DSS

Methodology issues remaining

• Describing activities

• How determine key activities/ outcomes?

• Links between activities and outcomes

• Sample size for primary data collection

• When to use primary or secondary data?

• Unified list of food security outcome determinants

Methodology issues (2)

• “Quantifying” vulnerability

• Mapping food system vulnerability

• Tradeoffs among food system outcomes?

Sample strategy• Stratify urban by income level• Stratify rural by farm size or landless• Number of villages?• Spatial variation also important in some of the sites

– Distance from market, location on canal, source of irrigation

• Same number from each village, less from urban as is smaller

• Ideal number of households is between 150 and 200• Keep research journal while doing surveys• Focus group discussions also suggested

Contributions to BFP Objective 3

• Site selection rationale and description• Map of sites across IGP • Method for showing diversity of food

systems across sites• Method for showing differential

vulnerability of food systems to GEC-induced changes in water availability and management

Meeting Objectives

• Final review of five selected case study sites in the Indo-Gangetic Basin

• Review food system descriptions for five IGB sites

• Develop mutual understanding of how food systems might be vulnerable to GEC

• Outline draft BFP report for Feb 2006• Develop work plans for BFP grant through July

2006