Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Scenario Development and Analysis Thomas Henrichs

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006

Scenario Development and Analysis

Thomas Henrichs

Scenarios ResearchGlobal Environmental Change and Food

Systems


Background The What and the Why


The Unknown

As we know,There are known knowns.There are things we know we know.

We also knowThere are known unknowns.That is to sayWe know there are some thingsWe do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns.The ones we don't know we don't know.

Donald Rumsfeld (12. Feb 2003, DOD Press Conference)


BackgroundHow to address uncertainty about future development?

The way we address uncertainty depends on:

- what we know about causalities in a system, and - the level of (un)certainty about future driving forces.

Projections

Speculation

Uncertainty

Cau

sality

highlow

unknown

known

ScenariosFacts

Source: Based on EEA (2005)


BackgroundWhat are Scenarios?

Scenario development and analysis is an approach to have a

structured discussions / assessment of an uncertain future.

Scenarios are plausible and often simplified descriptions of how

the future may develop, based on an internally consistent set of

assumptions about key driving forces and relationships.

Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts or truth machines!

Source: various


BackgroundWhy develop and analyse scenarios?

Education / Public Information• to educate and teach students, citizens, pupils

• to raise awareness of policy-makers, stakeholders

Science / Research • to integrate information from different fields

• to explore possible developments

Strategic Planning / Decision Support• to gather different views and to identify issues

• to frame strategic issues, to identify alternatives

• to support policy measure development


Approach How - Conceptual & Methodological Research


Conceptual & Methodological Research

How to develop and analyse scenarios?

Aim: A structured discussion about an uncertain future.

Depends on the goals of the scenario exercise!

Using qualitative (e.g. participation) or quantitative approaches (e.g. modelling) or a combinition of both:

Each scenario exercise needs tailor-made approaches.

Scenarios should be plausible, internally consistent, combine scientific rigour with creativity.


Conceptual & Methodological Research

Scenario Development Concepts

Typically, scenarios consist of:

• Description of the current state.

• Driving Forces.

• Description of step-wise changes.

• An image of the future.

PR

ES

EN

T

Choices

Drivers

FU

TU

RE

Source: European Environment Agency 2002

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

IPCC UNEP WWV MA

Examples in global

assessments:


Conceptual & Methodological ResearchMethods for linking scenarios across geographical scales

Aim: To provide global context and use of available information.

Source: GECAFS Report 2 (2006)

Global-level provides context for regional-level

Regional-level details feedback to global-level

Global Scenarios

IGP CAR SAF

Regional Scenarios

QuickTime™ and aTIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

IPCC UNEP WWV MA

Examples in global

assessments:


Conceptual & Methodological ResearchA Short Review of Global Scenarios (GECAFS Working Paper 1)

Source: GECAFS Working Paper 1 (2006)

Do existing global scenarios address food system qualitatively () or quantitatively ()?

IPCC/SRES

GEO-3 MA GSG IFPRI 2020

FAO 2030

Producing i.e. lucc

Processing / Packaging

Distribution / Retailing

Consuming

Production i.e. lucc

Distribution indirect indirect indirect indirect

Exchange trade trade trade trade trade

Affordability

Allocation market

market

market indirect

Preference

Nutritional Value

Social Value

Food Safety

Act

ivit

ies

Food S

ecu

rity

O

utc

om

es


Example GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios


GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosBackground


Issues: GEC, socio-economic developments and food

systems

Prototype scenarios developed with ICSU/UNESCO funding

based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

Developed together with a group of 20 regional experts in

two workshops in Jamaica (Sep05) and Trinidad & Tobago

(Nov06)


GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosBased on the Millennium Ecosystems Assessment

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)


GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosConceptual Framework for Food Systems Scenarios

Source: www.gecafs.org

Act

ivit

ies

Food S

ecu

rity

O

utc

om

es

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing

Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing

Consuming

SocioeconomicDRIVERS

Changes in:Demography, Economics,

Socio-political context, Cultural context

Science & Technology

Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental

Security, and other societal interests

FoodAvailability

FoodUtilisation

FoodAccess

Environm.Security

Social Interests

DRIVERSInteractions

GEC DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity,Sea level

‘Natural’DRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Socio-economic feedbacks

Environmental feedbacks


GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosDriving Forces, Global Environmental Change, Food SystemsIdentify socio-economic drivers, and

describe assumptions in scenarios

Source: Internal GECAFS documents, GECAFS Report 2 (2006)

Global Caribbean

Caribbean Order from Strength

Caribbean TechnoGarden

Caribbean Adapting Mosaic

Climate Change (Temperature)

• Global: Increase by 1.5 to 2.0 Degree Celsius • Caribbean: Increase of 1.0 to 1.5 Degree Celsius

Land Use Change

• High land use intensity plus ...

• ...

• At first like GC scenario, then ...

• ...

• Specialized agriculture ...

• ...

• More ‘integrated’ agriculture, ...

• ...

• Low, but steady (maybe initial drop)

• Relatively high• Relatively low• Relatively highEconomic Growth

• Some regional cooperation only, ...

• CSME works! More regional cooperation ...

• At first more cooperation, breakdown in ...

• Increased cooperation in economic ...

Regional Cooperation




Global Caribbean

Global Caribbean




Affordability + -- + -• Lower food

prices (+),Income increase (+)

• Fish price goes up, due to limited availability (-)

• Less income (--)

• Increase in food prices, also of staple food (--) GEC shocks (-)

• More income (+)

• Different national situations; dampened effect over time (-)

• Moderate increase in wealth outweighed by food price increases (-)

Draft regional scenario storylines

Identify and assess qualitatively the

global environmental change

drivers

Assess qualitatively the implications

for food system activities outcomes


GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosFood security diagrammes for the scenarios


Production

Distribution

Inter-RegionalExchange

Intra-Caribbean Exchange

Affordability

Allocation

Preference

Food SafetyIn

crea

se

Dec

reas

e

NutritionalValue

Social Value

Global Caribbean

Caribbean OrderFrom Strength

CaribbeanTechnoGarden

CaribbeanAdapting Mosaic

Food security diagrammes plotted based on food system outcome discussions:

++

+0

_

_ _


GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosIndicative comparison of GEC concerns in scenariosBased on: 1) Assumed developments related to GEC in the Caribbean

2) Assumed consequences related to GEC in the Caribbean3) Resulting developments related to food systems


-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Global Caribbean Caribbean Order from Strength

Caribbean Techno Garden Caribbean Adapting Mosaic

Hig

he

r C

on

ce

rnLo

we

r C

on

ce

rn◄

Les

s C

on

cern

M

ore

Co

nce

rn ►


Discussion Some Open Questions for IGP GECAFS Scenario Research


DiscussionOpen Questions for IGP GECAFS Scenario Research

Rationale: Why develop and analyse GECAFS IGP scenarios?

Goals: What are goals of a GECAFS IGP Scenarios exercise?

Content: What are the main focus / key issues?

Scale: Link global and regional (and maybe local) scenarios?

Approach: Qualitative or Quantitative methods? Or both?

Participants: Who needs to be involved in scenario development?

Outcomes: How use scenarios? And how communicate them?


Thank you

Documents

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems GECAFS IGP Kick-Off Meeting - Kathmandu 29/30 June 2006 Scenario Development and Analysis Thomas Henrichs