Vulnerability of Food Systems GECAFS approach

Polly Ericksen

GECAFS Science Officer

17 May 2006

A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to

environmental stress.

GECAFS Vision

Food Security

• exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.(definition from the World Food Summit)

• is determined by multiple factors.

FOOD UTILISATION

Components of Food Security& Key Elements

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

7

12

Food security is a function of multiple stresses

Misselhorn 2005 Global Environmental Change

Generally food systems comprise a number of human activities involved in…..

• Producing food

• Processing & packaging food

• Distribution & retailing food

• Consuming food

Trends / transformations in food systems

• On the production side: yield growth, technology advances and concentration, smallholder vs large farms, env. concerns

• Processing, packing and distribution: long, involved food chains, standardization, concentration and globalization

• Consumption: price declines, dietary transition, urbanization, CNCDs, etc.

Trends in Food Systems

“Traditional” Food Systems “Modern” Food Systems

Employment in food sector In production of raw commodities In food manufacturing and retail

Supply Chain Short Long with many food miles and lots of nodes

Typical food consumed Basic staples Processed food with a brand name; More animal products

Purchased food bought from Small, local shop or market Large supermarket chain

Nutritional issues Under-nutrition Chronic dietary diseases

Main source of national food shocks

Poor rains; production shocks International price and trade problems

Main source of household food shocks

Poor rains; production shocks Income shocks leading to food poverty

Environmental concerns Soil degradation, land clearing Nutrient loading, chemical runoff, water demands, energy requirements

Source: Adapted from Maxwell and Slater, 2004.

“Global” Environmental Change

Changes in the biogeophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

Why a “systems” approach?

• Lends a generic view – food systems underpin food security but in multiple ways

• Link multiple activities to multiple outcomes

• Incorporate dynamism and feedbacks• Identify key processes in spite of the

complexity• Allow for structure (determinism) and

agency

GEC – Food System Interactions

Food System ACTIVITIESProducing

Processing & PackagingDistributing & Retailing

Consuming

SocioeconomicDRIVERS

Changes in:Demography, Economics,

Socio-political context, Cultural context

Science & Technology

Food System OUTCOMESContributing to: Food Security, Environmental

Security, and other societal interests

FoodAvailability

FoodUtilisation

FoodAccess

Environm.Security

Social Interests

DRIVERSInteractions

GEC DRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means,

Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling,

Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity,Sea level

ÔNaturalÕDRIVERS

e.g. VolcanoesSolar cycles

Socio-economic feedbacks

Environmental feedbacks

Food Security

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

Environmental Security /

Natural Capital• Ecosystems

stocks, flows• Ecosystem

services• Access to

natural capital

Food Systems Researchintegrates Food System Activities and Outcomes

Social Welfare• Income• Employment • Wealth• Social & political

capital• Human capital• Infrastructure• Peace• Insurance

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to:

Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology

Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, consumer demandDistributing & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade

Consuming food: preparation, consumption

Source: Ericksen, P. (2006) Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (in prep for Food Policy)

Characteristics of food security outcome for Site X

Major Determinants of food security outcome

Linked to FS Activity? Or Other Outcome?

Staple grains are cheap if imported; expensive if local.

Costs of local production higher than foreign.

Determined primarily by the activities under Producing.

Fruits and vegetables cheap and available in rural areas.

Increasing numbers of farmers moving into horticulture so is surplus.

Determined primarily by the activities under Producing.

Fish and beef are luxury foods. Chicken is every day food in urban areas.

Fish increasingly scarce because waters over-fished.

Beef is for the export market.

Poultry is a new growth sector and so is available everywhere. Processing centered near urban areas.

Incomes differences between urban and rural areas important (social welfare).Aquatic systems reaching their threshold (natural capital).Beef and chicken price and availability determined by Producing, Processing and Retailing.

Evaluating affordability of food

Food available from local production

Income

Fresh water for aquatic systems

Nutrient stocks in soils

Food affordable

Income

Fresh water for aquatic systems

Nutrient stocks in soils

Food affordable

Food available from local production

Biodiversity

(after de Fries et al 2005)

Biodiversity

Tradeoffs among outcomes for two different food systems

Vulnerability

• Vulnerability implies HARM or a negative consequence from which is difficult to recover– Involves social values

• Function of exposure to hazards, sensitivity AND social dimensions of coping capacity (internal and external)

• Coping capacity includes access to assets, diversity of options, institutional, policy and market structures

• Vulnerability is dynamic and differential

Global environmental change

• Adds to existing stresses

• Has previously been addressed in terms of single impacts, primarily production

• Has various interactions with food systems (activities and outcomes)– Production to consumption

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude of

environmental threats

FOOD SYSTEMSECURITY / VULNERABILITY

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc.

Capacity to cope

with &/or recover

from GEC

Exposureto GEC

Adaptive capacity– social

• Social = ability or capacity or opportunity to modify processes or characteristics so as to better cope with existing or anticipated external stresses– Function of assets– Access to them – Ability to take action/ change behavior

Adaptive capacity- ecological

• Ecological = resilience – How much shock system can take without

change• Functional attributes

– Ability to self-organize– Ability to adapt and learn– Often determined by slow variables, such as

reservoirs of nutrients, ecosystem diversity or heterogeneity

Vulnerability of food systems

• Any component can be vulnerable – Multiple expressions

• Arises through activities/ processes• May be “masked” if we only look at

outcomes• Is fundamentally about systems NOT

delivering food security in an equitable and sustainable manner

• Feedbacks link today to the future

Potential determinants food system vulnerability

• Low diversity in assets or entitlements• Inequity in access to resources and capacity to

take action• Institutional weaknesses/ inflexible structures• Market failures• Distance between production and consumption• Cross-scale interactions leading to surprise• Policy failures

GEC Issue

Increased incidence of

drought

FS VULNERABILITY RE FOOD DIVERSITY

HIGH

Socec. Issue

Weak dairy market

Cap. to

cope

Exp.to

GEC

FS VULNERABILITY RE PRINCIPAL PROTEIN

LOW

Integrating FS & Vulnerability Researchin the IGP: example for Nutritional Value component of

Food Utilisation

Determinant: food diversitymilk

Determinant: principal proteinlentil

Cap. to

cope

Exp.to

GEC

GEC Issue

Increased incidence of

drought

Socec. Issue

Strong lentil market

Source: Multi-authored analysis of IGP food system vulnerability to GEC. GECAFS Report. In prep.

What about scale?

• It influences who / what is vulnerable• Institutions, governance and policies vary

with/ depend upon it• Cross-scale interactions create

heterogeneity and SURPRISE (and conflict)

• Tradeoffs fundamentally are across space and time– Subsidies, gains versus costs