Global Environmental Changeand Food Systems

“GECAFS”

Global Environmental Change

Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities

Land cover & soils

Atmospheric composition

Climate variability & means

Water availability & quality

For example changes in:

Nitrogen availability & cycling

Biodiversity

Sea currents & salinity

Sea level

a means of considering, in an holistic manner, the links between a number of factors “from plough to plate”.

A Food System approach principally includes consideration of:

Production

Harvesting

Storage

Processing

Distribution

Consumption

Food System

Year

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Are

a ha

rves

ted

per

capi

ta (

ha)

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

Yie

ld (

t/ha)

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Area per capita

Yield

World cereal yield and area harvested per capita(from Dyson, 1996)

Emerging issues for world food production(adapted from IFPRI, 1997)

Fresh water supplies

Soil fertility and fertilizer use

Climate variability and climate change

Trade liberalization and market reform

Applications of emerging technologies

Estimated global water scarcity in 2050(from Wallace, 2000)

Regions are coded according to their per capita annual renewable freshwater resource (m3/person/year).

< 1000 1000 - 2000 > 2000

Severe soil degradation

Moderate soil degradation

Light soil degradation

No degradation

(from Oldeman et al., ISRIC 1990)

Global Assessment of Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD)

Climate Extremes

Changed precipitation patterns(from Watson, CGIAR ICWG-CC w/s, Nairobi April 2002)

Food Provision

Provision = f (production, availability, access)

Production = f (yield, area)

Availability = f (production, distribution, storage)

Access = f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g. nutritional quality])

Scientific research

Research capacity-building

Integration and synthesis

International scientific networks

Joint Projects: Carbon, Water and Food (GECAFS)

International Global Change Research Programmes

Global Environmental Changeand Food Systems

“GECAFS”

GECAFS interactions with Sponsoring Programmes and Strategic Partners

GECAFS

CGIAR& NARS

FAO IIASA

MAWMO

example collaborations in grey

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of

Global Environmental Change on food provision systems

and to analyse the environmental and socioeconomic

consequences of adaptation.

GECAFS Goal

Fundamental Questions

1 Given changing demands for food, how will GEC additionally affect food provision and vulnerability in different regions and among different social groups?

2 How might different societies and different categories of producers adapt their food systems to cope with GEC against the background of changing demand?

3 What would be the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of such adaptations?

Global Environmental Change (GEC)and Food Systems

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (GEC)

Change in type, frequency & magnitude of environmental

threats

FOOD SYSTEMVULNERABILITY

SOCIETAL CHANGE

Change in institutions, resource accessibility,

economic conditions, etc.

Capacity to Cope &/or Recover

from GEC

Exposureto GEC

GEC and Food System Vulnerability

Effects of Global Environmental Change on Food Provision

Overarching questions

• In which regions and to what extent are food production and provision potentially sensitive to GEC, and why?

• How will anticipated changes in food production due to GEC influence the availability and accessibility of food?

• To what extent might anticipated changes in socioeconomic conditions influence the impacts of GEC on food production potential?

Theme 1 – Vulnerability and Impacts

Global Environmental Change and Options for Enhancing Food Provision

Overarching questions

• How have food production systems coped with or adapted to environmental variability and change in the past?

• What types of GEC will exceed the thresholds and speed of adaptive responses of current food production systems?

• Are existing institutions capable of providing effective adaptation options?

• What are the future costs to food provision of delaying the implementation of response strategies to GEC?

Theme 2 – Adaptations

Environmental and Socioeconomic Consequences of Adapting Food Systems

Overarching questions

• How and to what extent will the environment be affected by adapting food systems in response to both changing demands and GEC?

• What are the socio-economic consequences of these adaptations?

• To what extent are management responses effective in mitigating GEC and consistent with socioeconomic capacities?

Theme 3 – Feedbacks

Global Environmental

Change

Food Provision

Theme 1Vulnerability and

Impacts

Theme 2Adaptations

AdaptedFood Provision

Theme 3Environmental

Feedbacks

Socioeconomic Change

Theme 3Socioeconomic

Feedbacks

GECAFS Science Themes

The scientific framework will be provided by IGBP, IHDP and WCRP building on their respective strengths of:

internationally-agreed science agendas which specifically include “impacts”, “adaptation” and “feedbacks” research

well-developed coordination and synthesis mechanisms

and will be further developed by consolidating links between the Global Change science community and research organisations working on agricultural, policy formulation and development issues.

GECAFS Scientific Framework

Based on a strongly interdisciplinary approach and include all 3 GECAFS Science Themes

Designed to improve regional-level policy formulation for increasing preparedness and reducing vulnerability to GEC

Address issues identified in consultation with regional policy makers and the regional and international science and donor communities

Maintain close links between researchers and end-users in project design, implementation and reporting & interpretation

Develop research agendas of equal interest to development and science agencies

GECAFS Regional Research Projects

Based on a strongly interdisciplinary approach and include all 3 GECAFS Science Themes

Designed to improve regional-level policy formulation for increasing preparedness and reducing vulnerability to GEC

Address issues identified in consultation with regional policy makers and the regional and international science and donor communities

Maintain close links between researchers and end-users in project design, implementation and reporting & interpretation

Develop research agendas of equal interest to development and science agencies

GECAFS Regional Research Projects