Global Scenarios to be used for the

GECAFS scenario exercise

Monika Zurek

FAO, Rome

GECAFS 1st Caribbean Scenarios Meeting, 1Sep 05

Food System ACTIVITIES

SocioeconomicDRIVERS

Changes in:DemographyEconomics

Socio-political contextCultural context

Science & Technology

Societal Intereststhat relate to Food Systems• Food Security• Environmental Security• Other Securities

Drivers, Activities and Outcomes relevant to Developing Scenariosfor analysing interactions between GEC and Food Systems

GECDRIVERSChanges in:

Land cover & soilsAtmospheric composition

Climate variability & meansWater availability & quality

Nutrient availability & cyclingBiodiversity

Sea currents & salinitySea level

Food SecurityOther societal interests

Environmental Security /

Natural Capital:

Food System OUTCOMEScontributing to: Naturally-

induced driverse.g.

VolcanoesSolar cycles

Interactionsamong

DRIVERS

D

I

I

Arrow D = Direct feedback to GEC from Food System Activities

Arrows I = Indirect feedback to GEC from Food Systems Outcomes

I

Food System ACTIVITIES • Producing food: resource inputs, farmers, raw materials• Processing & packaging food• Distribution & retailing food: marketing, advertising, trade• Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, consumption

Other societal goals

•Income•Employment •Wealth•Social & political capital•Human capital•Infrastructure•Peace•Insurance

Environmental Security / Natural

Capital

•Ecosystems stocks, flows

•Ecosystem services

•Access to NC assured

Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to

FOOD UTILISATION

FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability• Allocation• Preference

• Nutritional Value• Social Value• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production• Distribution• Exchange

Food Security

Possibilities for linking scenarios across scales

1. Take full stories of global scenarios and “translate” into regional stories.

2. Develop regional scenarios based on rationale for choosing global scenarios, the assumptions global scenarios make and the outcomes of global scenarios, ensuring that outcomes of regional scenarios do not conflict with outcomes of global scenarios.

Global Scenarios exercises which include GEC variables

IPCC (climate) World Water Vision (water) Global Scenarios Group OECD Environmental Outlook (FAO 2015/2030 (projection)) GEO-3 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

Global scenarios to be used for GECAFS

IPCC GEO3 MA

A1 Policy first Global Orchestration

A2 Market first Order from Strength

B1 Security first TechnoGarden

B2 Sustainability first Adapting Mosaic

MA Framework

Direct Drivers

Indirect Drivers

EcosystemServices

Human Well-being

Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or

removal Technology adaptation and

use External inputs (e.g.,

irrigation) Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and

biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization,

trade, market and policy framework)

Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)

Science and Technology Cultural and Religious

Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction

Basic material for a good life Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and

action

Continual and reciprocal feedbacks between humans and other components of ecosystems

people nature

Ecosystems develop in different ways in the different scenarios, because of the different events and decisions in society (including social response to ecosystem change).

* These differences occur even though the basic ecological assumptions are the same in all scenarios.

Consequences of cross-scale feedbacks

Global Orchestrati

on

Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic

TechnoGarden

Market First

Industrial Nations

Developing Nations

Demo-graphics

2050 population: 8.1 billion

2050 population: 9.6 billion

2050 population: 9.5 billion

2050 population: 8.8 billion

low

Average income growth

high medium low similar to Order from Strength but with increasing growth rates toward 2050

lower than Global Orchestration, but catching up toward 2050

high

Income distribution

becomes more equal

similar to today similar to today, then becomes more equal

becomes more equal

Overall trend in technology advances

high low medium-low medium in general; high for environmental technology

high

International cooperation

strong weak—international competition

weak—focus on local environment

strong strong

Attitude toward environ-mental policies

reactive reactive proactive—learning

proactive reactive

Global Orchestration(global & reactive)

focus on macro-scale policy reform together with a socially conscious globalization, reactive approach to env. management

Dominant Approach for Sustainability

Economic Approach

Social Policy Foci

Create demand for environmental protection via economic growth and social improvements; public goods

Redefinition of the public and private sector roles; improving market performance; focus on global public good

Increase global equity; public health; global education

Order from Strength(regionalized & reactive)

retreat from global institutions results in a fragmented world, focus on national security and protectionism, reactive approach to env. mgmt

Dominant Approach for Sustainability

Economic Approach

Social Policy Foci

Reactive problem-solving by individual nations; sectoral approaches, creation of parks and protected reserves

Regional trade blocs, mercantilism, self-sufficiency

Security and protection

Adapting Mosaic(Regionalized & pro-active)

retreat from global institutions, focus on strengthened local institutions and local learning, proactive approach to env. mgmt

Dominant Approach for Sustainability

Economic Approach

Social Policy Foci

Learning via management and monitoring, shared management responsibility, adjustment of governance structures to resource users, common-property institutions

Focus on local development; trade rules allow local flexibility/interpretation; local non-market rights

Local communities linked to global communities; local equity

Techno Garden (global & pro-active)

emphasis on development of technologies to substitute for ecosystem services, globalized world, proactive approach to manage ES via technology

Dominant Approach for Sustainability

Economic Approach

Social Policy Foci

Green technology, eco-efficiency, tradeable ecological property rights

Global reduction of tariff boundaries, fairly free movement of goods, capital and people, global markets in ecological property

Improving individual and community technical expertise; policies follow opportunities; competition

Market first Scenario (GEO-3)

wealth of nations and the optimal play of market forces dominate social and political agendas

globalization and liberalization to enhance corporate wealth, create new enterprises and livelihoods, and so help people and communities to afford to insure against — or pay to fix — social and environmental problems

powers of state officials, planners and lawmakers to regulate society, economy and the environment continue to be overwhelmed by expanding demands

Crop Land Forest Area

Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios

Land use changes in the MA scenarios

The MA scenarios and food production (1)

In all scenarios food production increases, but food security is not achieved

Global Orchestration: Rapid (highest) growth in food demand (->

econ dev, urbanization), part. for meat Growth in demand about met by increases in

production via yield improvements and increased trade

Per capita availability highest of all scenarios

The MA scenarios and food production (2)

Order from Strength Growth in demand mainly due to population increase Demand only partly met by increased production via

area expansion, low trade Cost of food increases Number of malnourished children highest of all

scenarios

Adapting Mosaic Growth in demand due to population growth Increase in production via area expansion, but more

trade opportunity Food more produced locally Better the OS but slow increases in calorie availability

The MA and GEO-3 scenarios and food production (3)

TechnoGarden Increase in demand due to population growth

and economic improvements Demand met via yield improvements and

increased trade Calorie availability similar to GO, but still

malnourished children GEO-3 Market First

Decrease of % of hungry people, but total numbers stay the same (pop. growth)

Cereal Production in 2050 in the MA Scenarios

Ecosystem services outcome across the scenarios

Outcomes of the scenarios analysis (1)

Focus on increasing the flow of provisioning services often leads to reductions in supporting, regulating, and cultural ecosystem services. This may reduce the future capacity of ecosystems to provide services.

Monitoring ALL ecosystem services will increase society’s capacity to avert large disturbances of ecosystem services, or adapt to them rapidly when they occur.

Human Well-being across the scenarios

Outcomes of the scenario analysis (1)

The future will represent a mix of approaches and consequences described in the scenarios, as well as events and innovations that have not yet been imagined.

All scenarios show different trade-offs between possible management strategies currently discussed in various policy fora.

Outcomes of the scenario analysis (2)

The MA scenarios examine the need to develop and expand mechanisms of ecosystem management that:

avoid large ecosystem changes (by reducing stress on

ecosystems),

allow for the possibility of large ecosystem changes (by choosing reversible actions, experimenting cautiously, and monitoring appropriate ecological indicators),

increase capacity of societies to adapt to large ecosystem changes (diversifying the portfolio of ecosystem services and developing flexible governance systems that adapt effectively to ecosystem change), and

acknowledge the implicit trade-offs that arise as part of available management strategies among ecosystem services and between ecosystem services and human well-being impacts.