Eötvös Loránd University Eötvös Loránd University Department of Meteorology Department of Meteorology

Budapest, HungaryBudapest, Hungary

JJuditudit Bartholy Bartholy

Introduction to panel discussion 1: Introduction to panel discussion 1: Climate change projections in Europe and HungaryClimate change projections in Europe and Hungary

RegionalRegional c climatelimate model model experiments experiments for the Carpathian basin for the Carpathian basin

at the Eötvös Loránd Universityat the Eötvös Loránd University

Introduction to panel discussion 1: Introduction to panel discussion 1: Climate change projections in Europe and HungaryClimate change projections in Europe and Hungary

RegionalRegional c climatelimate model model experiments experiments for the Carpathian basin for the Carpathian basin

at the Eötvös Loránd Universityat the Eötvös Loránd University

CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: IMPLICATIONS FOR HUNGARYCLIMATE CHANGE 2007: IMPLICATIONS FOR HUNGARYIPCC OUTREACH EVENTIPCC OUTREACH EVENT --- CEU, Budapest 10-11 April 2008--- CEU, Budapest 10-11 April 2008

DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES APPLIED TO GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL RESULTS FOR THE HUNGARIAN NATIONAL CLIMATE STRATEGY

DYNAMICAL - STATISTICAL MODEL APPROACHDownscaling large-scale

climate scenariosfor the sensitive regions of

Hungary(GCM+stochastic model)

DYNAMICAL APPROACH WITH NESTED RCMs:2 experiments at ELU

(RegCM, PRECIS)2 experiments at HMS

(REMO, ALADIN)

REGIONAL CLIMATE SCENARIOSfor 2071-2100 on the base of RCM

outputs (16 and 8 experiments

for A2 and B2 scenarios)PRUDENCE

Adaptation of regional climate models at the Eötvös Loránd UniversityAdaptation of regional climate models at the Eötvös Loránd UniversityAdaptation of regional climate models at the Eötvös Loránd UniversityAdaptation of regional climate models at the Eötvös Loránd University

RegCM using 10 km resolution

(ICTP / F. Giorgi)

PRECIS using 25 km resolution

(UK Hadley Centre)

First contacts / start of adaptation project

Autumn 2005 Autumn 2002

Completed model experiments

1961-1990 using ERA40 1961-1990 using ERA40

1961-1990 using HadCM3

2071-2100 using HadCM3 (A2)

Model experiments currently in progress

1961-1990 using ECHAM5

2021-2050 using ECHAM5 (A1B)

2071-2100 using ECHAM5 (A1B)

2071-2100 using HadCM3 (B2)

RegCM adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd UniversityRegCM adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd UniversityRegCM adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd UniversityRegCM adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd University

Adapted version: RegCM 3 and RegCM 3.1Initial/boundary conditions: ERA40 (1.15°), ECHAM5 (1.25°) with timestep: 6 hrHorizontal resolution: 50 km (0.44°), 45 km (0.4°), 25 km (0.22°), 20 km(0.2°), 10 km (0.11°)

Vertical levels: 14, 18, 23 (sigma coordinates)

Timestep: 30 s, 20 sSpin-up period: 1 year, 1 monthModel domain: Central/Eastern Europe (with the center at 47.5°N, 18.5°E)

Gridpoints: 200×100, 140×120, 110×90, 120×100, 100×80, 94×72, 90×70Time slices: 1961-1990 (reference), 2021-2050 (near future), 2071-2100 (future)

Scenario: IPCC A1BTarget domain: Carpathian basin (SW corner at 45.15°N 13.35°E -- NE corner at 49.75°

23.55°E)

Applied convective scheme: Kuo, 1965 - Anthes 1974MIT-Emanuel, 1991Grell, 1993 -- Arakawa & Schubert, 1974 (AS74)

-- Fritsch & Chappell, 1980 (FC80)

SW= 13.35°ESW= 45.15°N

NE= 23.55°ENE= 49.75°N

Applied grid: 120×100

C= 18.5°EC= 47.5°N

SPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE SPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE REGCMREGCM SIMULAT SIMULATION ION ANDAND THE TARGET DOMAINTHE TARGET DOMAINSPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE SPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE REGCMREGCM SIMULAT SIMULATION ION ANDAND THE TARGET DOMAINTHE TARGET DOMAIN

PRECISPRECIS adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd University adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd UniversityPRECISPRECIS adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd University adaptation at the Eötvös Loránd University

Adapted version: PRECIS 1.3 and PRECIS 1.4.8

Initial/boundary conditions: ERA40 (1.15°), HadCM3 (1.25°) with timestep: 6 hr

Horizontal resolution: 50 km (0.44°), 25 km (0.22°)

Vertical coordinates: sigma coordinates

Timestep: 5 min

Spin-up period: 1 month

Model domain: Central/Eastern EuropeGridpoints: 123×96 NW corner at 53.39°N 2.27°E -- NE corner at 50.57°N 34.38°E SW corner at 39.57°N 3.83°E -- SE corner at 37.2°N 27.94°E

Time slices: 1961-1990 (reference period), 2071-2100 (future)

Scenario: IPCC A2 and B2

Target domain: Carpathian basin NW corner at 50°N 5°E -- NE corner at 50°N 27.5°E SW corner at 40°N 5°E -- SE corner at 40°N 27.5°E

SPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE SPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE PRECISPRECIS SIMULAT SIMULATION ION ANDAND THE TARGET DOMAINTHE TARGET DOMAINSPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE SPATIAL EXTENSION OF THE PRECISPRECIS SIMULAT SIMULATION ION ANDAND THE TARGET DOMAINTHE TARGET DOMAIN

EXPECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE, EXPECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE, PRECISPRECIS A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100 A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100EXPECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE, EXPECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE, PRECISPRECIS A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100 A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100

EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE, EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE, PRECISPRECIS A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100 A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE, EXPECTED PRECIPITATION CHANGE, PRECISPRECIS A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100 A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100

RESULTS OF RESULTS OF CONTROL RUNS CONTROL RUNS

FOR HUNGARYFOR HUNGARY

DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BETWEEN SIMULATEDSIMULATED (PRECIS)(PRECIS)

AND AND OBSERVED OBSERVED (CRU)(CRU) DATA DATA

1961-19901961-1990

RESULTS OF RESULTS OF CONTROL RUNS CONTROL RUNS

FOR HUNGARYFOR HUNGARY

DIFFERENCE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BETWEEN SIMULATEDSIMULATED (PRECIS)(PRECIS)

AND AND OBSERVED OBSERVED (CRU)(CRU) DATA DATA

1961-19901961-1990

SUMMARY OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGESUMMARY OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGEPRECISPRECIS, A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100, A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100

SUMMARY OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGESUMMARY OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGEPRECISPRECIS, A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100, A2 SCENARIO 2071-2100

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

• More and More and more evidencesmore evidences support the anthropogenic global climate support the anthropogenic global climate change, which change, which help to project the amplitude and the rangehelp to project the amplitude and the range ofof the the expectedexpected regional climate regional climate changeschanges..

• Since there is a large variability of GCM projections for the Central Since there is a large variability of GCM projections for the Central European region, therefore European region, therefore regional climate modelsregional climate models (using (using dynamical approach) are essential to dynamical approach) are essential to reduce the uncertainityreduce the uncertainity of the of the climate projections in the areaclimate projections in the area

• First results (using 25-50 km horizontal resolution) suggest that First results (using 25-50 km horizontal resolution) suggest that regional climate change exceedsregional climate change exceeds the global mean changes in this the global mean changes in this region --- this implies that region --- this implies that decision makers should actdecision makers should act as as earlyearly as as possible (e.g., forming adaptation and mitigation strategies)possible (e.g., forming adaptation and mitigation strategies)