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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
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Emissions Factors ImprovementEmissions Factors Improvement
Ron Myers
OAQPS/SPPD/MPG
2/13/2008
Revising Critical Components to Revising Critical Components to Streamline and Expand Program Streamline and Expand Program
Applicability Applicability
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
EF Program BackgroundEF Program Background
Dates to about 1968 (68 pages)Managed by a small staff (5 to 15)Highly variable and declining fundingSteadily increasing demandsPrimarily uses secondary dataReevaluated program in 2003
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Presentation TopicsPresentation Topics
EF Uncertainty Analysis The Electronic Reporting ToolWeb FIRE
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Emissions Factors UncertaintyEmissions Factors Uncertainty
Existing EF quality ratings are based on subjective assessments
Everyone uses only the averageNo one considers the accuracy of
their estimate or the potential implications
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
BackgroundBackground Stakeholders, National Academy of Sciences,
and the Office of Inspector General (www.epa.gov/oig/reports/air.htm) said EPA should better quantify the uncertainty of the emissions factors
Current Emissions Factors:– Developed using the mean, usually with few available data– Use a subjective letter system for rating quality
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Factor Data Uncertainty StudyFactor Data Uncertainty Study
We assessed statistically the uncertainty in the best emissions factors in AP-42
Criteria for selection of emissions factors:– data quality (A-rated)– data quantity > 15 emissions tests – number/type of pollutants – accessibility of supporting emissions
data
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Emissions Factor DataEmissions Factor Data
We selected 44 A-rated data sets from:– Wood Residue Combustion
– Refuse Combustion
– Waferboard/Oriented Strandboard
– Hot Mix Asphalt
Pollutants assessed included Particulate Matter, Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Monoxide, HAPs
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Example DistributionExample Distribution
0 1 2 3 4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Emissions, lb/mmbtu x 10-1
Pro
babi
lity
Target Statistic = 95th percentile
Median
Mean
Target Statistic = 90th percentile
Target Statistic = 10th percentile
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
FindingsFindings
Best rated emissions factors had:– Log normal or Weibull distributions (not
normal distributions)
– More tests (with 3 runs per test) reduce uncertainty, diminishing returns on uncertainty after 10 tests
– Uncontrolled HAPs show the greatest variability
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Range of Emissions EstimatesRange of Emissions Estimates
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
E Rated Factor
C Rated Factor
A Rated Factor
D Rated Factor
B Rated Factor
Single Test
Test & Monitor
CEMS
10% 90%25% 75%
Box & Whisker Percentiles
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Next StepsNext Steps
Presentation on study available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/efpac/uncertainty.html
The comment period has closed and we are reviewing comments and may revise the report for publication.
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
The Electronic Reporting Tool (ERT)The Electronic Reporting Tool (ERT)
Replaces paper source test reports– Uses Microsoft Access– Test Plan development– Test Plan evaluation– Imports field data from Excel– Stores lab data– Test reviewer component– Exports critical data to WEB FIRE
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Test Report UsesTest Report Uses
Compliance certification Permit applications or
revisions Permit fee determination Emissions Inventory Performance
Information
Modeling Risk Assessment Environmental Justice
Issues TRI – CERCLA – SARA AIRS AFS reporting Complaint Evaluations
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
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OAQPSOAQPS
Benefits of ERT over paperBenefits of ERT over paper
Improve coordinationReduce duplicative workStandardize reportsImprove information flowReduce storage spaceImprove documentationImprove & standardize QA
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
U
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NV
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NM
ENTAL PROTECTION
AG
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
U
NITED STATES
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NV
IRO
NM
ENTAL PROTECTION
AG
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
U
NITED STATES
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NV
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NM
ENTAL PROTECTION
AG
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
U
NITED STATES
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NV
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NM
ENTAL PROTECTION
AG
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
U
NITED STATES
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NV
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NM
ENTAL PROTECTION
AG
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
U
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NV
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NM
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
U
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Capabilities of ERTCapabilities of ERTCurrent Pollutants
– Metals – Halides– PM – THC– SOx – NOx
Future Pollutants– Dioxins – POM/PAH
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ert/ert_tool.html
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Products of ERTProducts of ERT
Improved documentation for evaluation of source test report
Export of critical values and documentation for use in Emissions Factors development in WebFIRE
Export of critical information into data flows for other program areas.
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
What is WEBFIREWhat is WEBFIRE WebFIRE (Factor Information Retrieval System) is an internet
based Cold Fusion application that combines AP-42, the Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, and FIRE.
WebFIRE is used by local, state, and federal agencies, environmental consultants and others who require emissions factor information for estimating criteria pollutants and air toxic emissions from stationary sources & area sources.
WebFIRE will display included and revoked EF’s for all EF available in AP-42 Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors (AP-42 Fifth Edition).
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Benefits of WEBFIREBenefits of WEBFIRE
Updates can be made more frequently, keeping pace with updates to AP-42.
Allows for the addition of new source category codes (SCCs) and emissions factors for use in the EPA’s National Emission Inventories.
Replace the traditional report format of AP-42. AP-42 text will be the same, but the EF tables will be available in WEBFIRE.
Enable the Agency to update, revise, and revoke emission factors on a more real time basis rather than updating factors annually.
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Future Upgrades to WEBFIREFuture Upgrades to WEBFIRE
WebFIRE will have links to emission factor source test reports and supporting background reports to the database.
We have a spreadsheet that can be used in lieu of the ERT to allow users to manually extract info. from the source test reports and be imported into WebFIRE.
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Future Upgrades to WEBFIREFuture Upgrades to WEBFIRE
With this new linkage between emission test reports and emissions factors, WEBFIRE will gain the ability to calculate emissions factors on the fly.
WebFIRE will incorporate emission test results from the ERT or spreadsheet to allow users to tailor their emissions estimate using data selected from facilities that are more representative of their facility.
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
WebFIRE locationWebFIRE location
http://cfpub.epa.gov/oarweb/index.cfm?action=fire.main
Or for detailed searchhttp://cfpub.epa.gov/oarweb/
index.cfm?action=fire.detailedSearch
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Office of Air Quality
Planning and Standards
A I RCLEAN
OAQPSOAQPS
Open DiscussionOpen Discussion
QUESTIONS?
[email protected](919) 541-5407
