Eastgate Retail Opportunities

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Eastgate Centre, Inverness The Retail Opportunity January 2011

The Eastgate Centre Location. Inverness Catchment Area: demographic profile. Student Population. Stratton Farm: New Town Development. Inverness Catchment Area: expenditure profile. Eastgate Centre tenant mix. Tenant Mix of Eastgate Centre.

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Administrative centre for the Highland council area. Regarded as the capital of the Highlands of Scotland.

Inverness population: 56,660 (GRO Mid 2008 Settlement Population Estimate)

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Catchment characteristics of Inverness including the Eastgate Centre are assessed using CACIs Retail Footprint model. Details of the methodology are presented in the Appendix. All data are sourced from CACI unless otherwise stated.

Inverness is classified as a Major Centre. Total Retail Footprint (weighted retail) catchment area population of 68,843 (2009).4

Ranked 199th across all UK retail destinations by shopper population and 14th among retail destinations in Scotland.

There are 8,078 15-25 year olds in the Inverness catchment. In the next year there are forecast to be 87 fewer 15-25 year olds. However, this is a lower percentage decrease than both the Scotland and UK average. The 20-24 age group is forecast to rise 4.4%, compared to Scotland average (-1.7%) and UK average (0.1%). 21.1% of population aged 16-64 (2-001 Census) in Social Grade AB, 29% in C1. 73.9% of households (2001 Census) have one or more cars / vans.

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Inverness retail weighted catchment has a higher proportion of households in the wealthy achievers and comfortably off categories than both Scotland and UK average. These category includes the groups Wealthy Executives, Affluent Greys, Flourishing Families, Starting Out and Secure Families. These categories will have a higher purchasing power than average and have a large number of households with children, young couples and singles.

ACORN is a market segmentation system developed by CACI and has been built using over 125 demographic statistics and 287 lifestyle variables incorporating 2001 Census data to enable all 1.9 million UK postcodes to be classified into one of 5 Categories, and one of 17 Groups and one of 56 Types.

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Densely populated around the Eastgate Centre.7

Much of the population around Inverness are wealthy ACORN groups.

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Inverness catchment has greater % of some of the wealthier ACORN Groups than the Scottish average:Wealthy Executives Affluent Greys Flourishing Families Starting Out Secure Families

15,359 households in the top 6 six ACORN groups in the Inverness Retail Weighted Catchment (RWC).

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Inverness College UHI relocating to Beechwood site. Potential 800 residential places. Further integrated facilities such as Sports Facilities, Centre for Gaelic Education and space for an academic village to attract high quality staff. Result in more students and more spend in Inverness City centre. University of the Highlands and Islands (UHI) Millennium Institute Inverness College (UHI) comprises three campuses around Inverness. Serves the Highland and Islands of Scotland and further afield. Around 8,500 students. Additional customers for Eastgate Centre.10

Outline planning permission given for New Town at large area of land at Stratton and East Seafield. Land use categories:New town centre at Stratton. New residential areas at Stratton. New, mixed use commercial area at East Seafield.

Over 2,500 residential units. 250 park & ride spaces serving Inverness. Phased development, likely up to 2025. Represents increase in catchment population for the Eastgate Centre.11

Above Scotland and UK average spend per person on Comparison Goods; Personal Goods, Home Goods and Leisure Goods.

189.64 million available spend on Comparison Goods. Above UK and Scotland Total Retail and Leisure Expenditure average spend per person.

Source: CACI Ltd

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The Eastgate Centre is located within Inverness City centre. Inverness Retail Weighted Catchment shopper population of 68,843. The 20-24 age group is forecast to rise 4.4%, compared to Scotland average (-1.7%) and UK average (0.1%). Large percentage of Wealthy Executives, Affluent Greys, Flourishing Families, Starting Out and Secure Families in catchment compared to Scottish average, some of the most affluent ACORN Groups. Large student population, set to increase with Beechwood campus development. New town development to east of city gained outline planning consent, over 2,500 residential units by 2025. Above Scotland and UK average spend per person on Comparison Goods.

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CACIs retail catchment model Over 4,400 retail centres in UK Built using Gravity Modelling principles: People are more likely to visit larger, more attractive centres People are more likely to visit centres that are easily accessible to them (based on a combination of distance and drive-time) Relationships vary dependent on position in local retail hierarchy Calibrated using credit/debit card data

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The Principles of Gravity Modelling20%

What is the probability that customers living in Area X will use centre Y to carry out their shopping? Gives us overlapping catchments 30% Allocation of shoppers for each area, the market is allocated out to centres, as a function of the attraction of the centre, versus thecost of travelling there

Area X 10%

40%

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Retail Footprint classifies centres into 53 minor and 14 major classes based on:

Size of retail offer: Retail Footprint Score Mix of retail offer: Mass/Value/Premium & % clothing and footwear Location in local retail/regional hierarchy: suburbs, distance to similar centres Residential/Workforce mix: dedicated commuter destinations Function: Regional Mall/Outlet Centre

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Multiple retailers are linked to centres via their postcodes Each multiple retailer is scored based on their average turnover per outlet Reflects different pull of larger, more attractive fascia Retailers are further divided into Premium, Mass and Value fascias to reflect the centres retail mix This is later used within defining centre classes Further adjustment made for independents

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