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Climate Change – Croatia
Ivana Carev
Association for Nature, Environment and Sustainable Development “Sunce”, Split
Commitments of the Republic of Croatia
• Croatia, as an independent state, joined the United Nations on 22 May 1992
• 1996 – UN member• Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) • Kyoto Protocol – still not ratified • maintain greenhouse gas emissions at their
1990 levels• 2008 to 2012 reduce its emissions of
greenhouse gases by 5 percent in relation to the base year, 1990
• undergoing the transition process to a market economy
• flexibility including the choice of the reference year for greenhouse gas emission levels
Croatia - country that is particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change due to its
5,800 km long coastline with 1185 islandsits fragile agriculture and forestry
with their social and economic significance
potential influence onhydrology, water resources, mainland coastal ecosystems
Croatia has cause for concern and is motivated to take an active part in international efforts aimedat finding practical solutions to climate change
Republic of Croatia• In 1991. Independent, member of former Yugoslavia
• Territorial and administrative structure - 20 counties and the City of Zagreb• 19 government ministries• Climate issues - Ministry of Environmental Protection and Physical Planning
– Atmosphere Protection Department and Climate– Ozone Layer Protection Section
• census in 2001 - 4 437 460 inhabitants• covers an area of 87 677 km2
• 77.5 inhabitants per km2
• structure of the economy:– services account for about 60 percent of income– industry holds a 30 percent share– while agriculture makes up the remaining 10 percent
• tourism plays an important role
Specific Croatian Circumstances
• according to Article 4.6 of the Convention - flexibility in selection of reference year • emission of greenhouse gases - very low• problems in determining emissions of GHG - no reliable data until 1992• up to 1992 area of former Yugoslavia - integral economic and energy market • territorial allocation of activities couldn’t be properly carried out• the emission in Croatia until the year 1992 has partly been determined on the basis of data
available for former Yugoslavia. • in the reference year 1990 - emission of 39.4 Mt eqCO2 which gives 8.24 t eqCO2/capita• emission of greenhouse gases per capita the lowest amongst developed countries and
countries in transition • implementation of the Convention’s and the Kyoto Protocol’s commitments - difficult task• Kyoto negotiations - no available data on emissions, not consider possibilities for their
reduction• Croatia was in no position to negotiate• despite the negative economic trends emission fell by 24% up to the year 1995
Policies and Measures• Energy consumption in 1998 totalled 354 PJ - 1.8 t of the oil equivalent
per capita- very low• Energy Policy - to provide a high quality and reliable supply of energy• Environmental Protection Policy - Ministry of Environmental
Protection and Physical Planning.• Approbatory Decisions, Activities and Positive Practices
– shutting down the large energy consumers (coal plant in Bakar, the ferrous metals factory in Šibenik, and the high blast furnaces in Sisak
– the orientation towards renewable energy sources– the maximisation of hydroelectric power potential utilisation– economic development directed towards services and energy non-intensive
industries– the gas networking of Croatian households– closing down the only domestic coal mine due to environmental reasons– postponing the construction of a new coal fired thermal power plant– sustainable forest management– a conventionally high share of biomass use for heating purposes (5-7% of total
energy consumption)– the construction of a nuclear power plant pursuant to western PWR technology
Geography and Climate • The Republic of Croatia is a
Central-European, Adriatic and Mediterranean, Pannonian and Danube Basin country
• territory is divided into large natural and geographic entities: – Pannonian and Peri-Panonnian
areas (54.4%)– hilly and mountainous areas
(14%) – and the Adriatic areas (31.6
%).• Köppen classification - the most
part, has a moderately warm and rainy climate
• coldest month: -3°C and 18°C. • highest mountain regions (>1200m
asl) have a snowy, forest climate• mean annual precipitation from
600 to 3500 mm
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation
• Current knowledge does not allow us to predict with accuracy how the process will develop under the altered climate conditions forecast for the future
• Estimates - historical trends displayed by climate factors and conclusions drawn about the sensitivity and vulnerability of individual parts of the ecosystem to forecast future conditions
Climate Scenarios
• Regional models of air temperature variations were designed in accordance with the business as usual global scenario, which postulates a doubling of CO2 emission into the atmosphere:
– temperature increase over the territory of Croatia ranging from
• 2.0 °C to 2.8 °C in the coastal and mountainous area
• 2.4 °C to 3.2 °C in the lowland areas of the country
– decreases in precipitation (due to a decreasing trend)
– sea level rise from 20 to 86 cm
Possible impacts
Hydrology:• decrease in precipitation
– cannot meet the water needs of plants (due to increased evapotranspiration)
– significant decline in runoffs and soil moisture in Slavonia and Primorje
– different water regime– water shortages during the
summer months– increased fire risk
Coastal area:• flooding of seaside areas• salt-water intrusion into groundwater
and soil• coastal erosion
Possible impacts
Biodiversity and Land Natural Ecosystems
• shift of vegetation zones (belts) in a horizontal and vertical direction
• displacement and changes in the habitats of individual species of flora and fauna
• extinction of individual species• changes in the qualitative and
quantitative mixture of biocenosis• fragmentation of habitats• changes to ecosystem functioning• impact on the types of trees
belonging to narrow ecological valences, such as the fir-tree and penduculate oak
Evidences of Climate Change
• Scientists noticed changes in some 100 physical and 450 biological processes
• Russian Arctic, higher temperatures - melting the permafrost• rain is often more intense• floods and storms are more severe• and heat waves are becoming more extreme• rivers freeze later in the winter and melt earlier• trees flower earlier in spring• insects emerge faster and bird lay eggs sooner• glaciers are melting• global mean sea level is rising.
The rate of climate change expected over the next 100 years is unprecedented in human history.
Observed Climate Change in Croatia
• The main conclusions were drawn from an analysis of long-term
meteorological measurements taken across Croatia: – territory of Croatia is located in a broad transitional zone, which will
generate different changes in temperature trends; those for inland Croatia and coastal area differ in their respective characteristics.
– annual mean daily temperature trend shows a slight rise of 0.3-0.4C (not significant)
– annual maximum daily temperature trend shows slight decline (not significant)
– spring and summer maximum temperatures fall slightly– autumn and winter maximum temperatures rise marginally– annual minimum daily temperature trend shows a significant rise in
inland Croatia, while in Crikvenica (coast), a slight temperature drop was recorded during the spring
– daily temperature range (MAX-MIN) is decreasing (statistically significant change)
Observed Climate Change in Croatia
• rise in air pressure• significant decreases in the
median annual cloud formation over the territory of Croatia
• annual precipitation decrease• temperature rise causes
increases in potential evapo-transpiration
• water levels in Croatia’s inland watersheds (Sava and Drava) and in the coastal area (Lake Vrana) over the period of 75 to 100 years show that water levels have varied considerably between 1926 and 1975
Evidences of Climate Change in Croatia
Fires:• number of fires and surface areas
burnt - relation to high temperatures
• in 2000, air temperatures were extremely high
• there was a total of 706 fires • 68.171 ha total burnt forest and
woodland area • two to three times higher than
any other seen over the past ten years
• desertification
Evidences of Climate Change in CroatiaForests:• fir-trees grow at the edge of their natural
habitat, moving towards the Mediterranean climate zone
• adjustments made to the warmer conditions in the forests of fir-tree and hop hornbeam on the slopes of Biokovo
• increased share of trees belonging to the broader ecological valences that did not play a dominant role
• economic value of forests has declined, but the overall beneficial functions they serve have not been reduced (ecological and social)
Evidences of Climate Change in Croatia
• Extreme weather conditions:
• 2003. Drought
• 14. November 2004. Bora
– Up to 240 km/h
– 30 people injured, destroyed
houses, cars, parks, trees…
Evidences of Climate Change in Croatia• January 2005.• Unusual snow in Dalmatia • 8. June 2005. Extreme coldness• extremely low temp. 9,6°C • Snow on Mosor, mountain above Split
