CC TIU CHUN THM NH D N U TTRNG I HC KINH T TP. H CH MINH
Capital Investment Appraisal MethodsMc tiuObjectivesSV hiu ngha
ca cc tiu ch thm nhBit tnh ton v s dng cc tiu ch trong thm nh d n u
tBit s dng cc tiu ch trong thm nh d n u t2Ni dungContentTiu chun
hin gi thun Net Present Value (NPV)Tiu chun t sut thu nhp ni b
Interal Rate of Return (IRR)Tiu chun ch s sinh li Profitable Index
(PI)Tiu chun thi gian thu hi vn Payback Period (PP)Tiu chun thi
gian thu hi vn c chit khu (Discounted Payback Period (DPP)
3Phn loi d nProject ClassificationCc d n c lp (Independent
Project)Cc d n ph thuc ln nhau (Dependent Project)Cc d n loi tr ln
nhau (Exclusive Project)
4Tiu chun NPVNPV Criteria Hin gi thun (NPV) ca mt d n l gi tr ca
dng tin d kin trong tng lai c quy v hin gi tr i vn u t d kin ban u
ca d n.
NPV = Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai u t ban u 55Nh
vy, li sut chit khu dng tin d n chnh l chi ph s dng vn bnh qun ca
cng ty WACC (hc chng 12).6Nm012...nNCF-INCF1NCF2NCFn
Tiu chun NPVNPV Criteria 6Gii thch cng thc trn. Mt v d v tnh NPV
ca d n u t7Nm01234NCF-1.000$300$400$500$500$
Tiu chun NPVNPV Criteria 7Vi NPV = 320,47 d n trn sau khi c b p
v thi gian v ri ro, d n trn cn sinh li 320,47
8ng biu din NPV ca d n A Tiu chun NPVNPV Criteria 8Chng ta nhn
thy rng khi r tng ln th NPV gim xung. Chnh v th, s nhy cm ca NPV i
vi li sut chit khu th hin thng qua nghing ca ng NPV ca d n.Nh vy,
NPV cng nhy cm i vi li sut chit khu th d n cng ri ro. Lin h phn tch
nhy trong chng 4.Mt trong nhng cch nh gi ri ro d n l phn tch nhy.
Chng s cho bit nhng bin ng trong dng tin (tng ng vi bin ng ca th
trng) v trong li sut chit khu (ri ro) s tc ng nh th no n NPV. i vi
cc d n u t c lpNPV > 0: Chp nhn d nNPV < 0: Loi b d nNPV = 0:
Ty quan im ca nh u t
i vi cc d n u t loi tr ln nhauNPV >0 vNPV ln nht9Tiu chun
NPVNPV Criteria 9Thng thng khi NPV =0, nh u t s khng u t. Nhng i
khi, nh u t s xem xt nhng tc ng v hnh v nhng nh hng nhiu mt (th
phn, h thng phn phi) quyt nh u t. u im ca NPV:Tiu chun NPV ghi nhn
tin t c gi tr theo thi gian NPV ch da trn duy nht hai d kin : dng
tin c d on t d n v chi ph c hi ca ng vn, khng ph thuc vo ch quan ca
nh qun l.V cc gi tr hin ti u c o lng bi mt ng ngy hm nay nn c th
cng dn:NPV (A+B) = NPV (A) + NPV (B)
10Tiu chun NPVNPV Criteria 10 IRR ca mt d n l li sut chit khu m
ti NPV ca d n bng 0. y chnh l im ha vn v li sut ca d n, l ranh gii
nh u t quyt nh chn la d n. T sut thu nhp ni b o lng t sut sinh li m
bn thn d n to ra.
11IRRNPVr %0Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria 11IRR: t sut hon vn ni b l
mt ch tiu c ngha rt quan trng trong thm nh d n u t. Cch tnh IRR ca
d n: xc nh IRR ca mt d n, chng ta s dng phng php th v sai (try and
wrong), ngha l chng ta s th cc gi tr li sut khc nhau tm mc li sut
lm cho NPV =0.Tuy nhin, khi tnh ton chng ta c th kt hp vi cng thc
ni suy tm IRR.
12Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria 12R1: mc li sut lm cho NPV> 0R2:
mc li sut lm cho NPV< 0.Gii thch bng 10.3 trang 234 cho thy mi
lin h gia li sut vay v IRR.
V d: Tnh IRR ca hai d n sau: D n A: vn u t l 300.000 USD, dng
tin pht sinh t d n l 6 nm, mi nm 72.000 USD. D n B: vn u t l
300.000 USD, dng tin pht sinh t d n l 6 nm, nm u tin l 100.000 USD
v nm sau gim so vi nm trc 10.000 USD.
13Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria 13IRR ca d n 1 l 11,53% (gii thch cch
tnh).IRR ca d n 2 l 14,87% (gii thch cch tnh).Trng hp cc d n l c lp
ln nhau, d n no c:IRR > r : chp nhn d nIRR < r : loi b d
n
Trng hp cc d n l loi tr ln nhauIRR > r vIRR ln nht
14Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria Cc cm by khi s dng IRR:
Cm by th nht: Vay hay cho vay? Cm by th hai: IRR a tr Cm by th
ba: Nhiu d n loi tr ln nhauCm by th t : Li sut ngn hn c th khc li
sut trong di hn
15Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria Dng tin (triu la)D nNCF0NCF1IRRNPV
(10%)AB-1.000+1.000+1.500-1.500+50%+50%+364-364D n A vo nm 0 chng
ta ang cho vay tin vi mc li sut l 50%. Trng hp d n B vo nm 0 chng
ta ang i vay tin vi mc li sut l 50%. Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria Cm by
1: Vay hay cho vay16IRR: khng cho bit chng ta ang vay hay i vay.
Lin h thc t l khi chi hi l vay hay ang cho vay. T dn dt qua IRR a
tr.
D nNCF0NCF1NCF2NCF3IRRNPV
(10%)C+1.000-3.600+4.320-1.728+20%-0,7517 D n C c dng tin ging nh l
mt dng tin i vay NPV ca d n gia tng khi li sut chit khu gia tng.
Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria Cm by 1: Vay hay cho vay181.500 -
1.000 -
500 -
0 -
-500 -
-1.000 --25 0 25 50Li sut (%)IRR = 15,2%IRR = -50%NPV (1.000
$)Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria Cm by 2: IRR a tr hoc khng c IRRNmD n 0
1 2 A -25.000$ 50.000$ - 36.000$19D N KHNG C IRRTiu chun IRRIRR
Criteria 20D N KHNG C IRR
Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria NmD n 0 1 2 3 4B 1.500$ - 3.000$ 2.250$
-750$ 300$21D N KHNG C IRRTiu chun IRRIRR Criteria 22D N KHNG C
IRR
Tiu chun IRRIRR Criteria D n0123NPV (10%)IRR
(%)X-23.000$10.000$10.000$10.000$1.869$14,6Y-8.000$7.000$2.000$1.000$768$17,7X
Y-15.000$3.0008.000$9.000$1.101$13,523Mu thun l do: Khc nhau v kch
thc, quy m ca u t. Khc nhau v mu hnh ca dng tin.Tiu chun IRRIRR
Criteria Cm by 3: Cc d n loi tr ln nhau2324
ng biu din NPV ca d n X v YTiu chun IRRIRR Criteria 24y l th bng
10.4 trong sch.Gii thch cch la chn d n theo li sut chit khu.Phn tch
dng tin d n X-Y. D n X = Y + (X-Y). Nu X-Y l d n chp nhn c th Y +
(X-Y) phi tt hn Y. Ngha l chn X.Nu X- Y l d n khng chp nhn c th d n
Y phi l d n tt hn.Kt lun: khi c mu thun gia IRR v NPV th tiu chun
NPV s thch hp hn. Khi li sut chit khu r t 0 n 13,53%, chn d n A v:
NPVA max v NPVA >0 Khi li sut chit khu = 13,53%, chng ta c chn d
n no cng c v: NPVA = NPVB >0Khi li sut chit khu r t 13,53% n
20%, chn d n B v: NPVB max v NPVB >0Khi li sut chit khu >
20%, khng chn d n no v c hai u c NPV 1: Chp nhn d nPI < 1: Loi b
d n
Trng hp cc d n l loi tr ln nhau. PI > 1 v PI max -> Chn d
nPI v quyt nh chp nhn hoc loi b d n Tiu chun PIProfitability
Index30u im: Vn dng trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn
Nhc im:Nhc im so vi NPV khi thm nh d n u t.
Tiu chun PIProfitability IndexD nDng tinPINPV
(12%)NCF0NCF1NCF21-2070103.5350.52-1015404.5335.33-10-5604.3433.431Trng
hp ngun vn b gii hnXp hng u tin theo t s hin gi cc khon thu nhp
trong tng lai so vi vn u t hay theo tiu chun ch s sinh li PI. Tiu
chun PIProfitability IndexDnNmNPV (10%)PI
(10%)IRR012K-5.000$6.000$1.000$1.281$1,25634,8%L-10.000$2.000$12.000$1.736$1,17420%32Mu
thun gia PI v NPVTiu chun PIProfitability
IndexNm01234NCF-8.000$3.000$4.000$5.000$5.000$33Thi gian thu hi vn
ca d n l khong thi gian thu hi li vn u t ban u. Xt theo tiu chun nh
gi thu hi vn, thi gian thu hi vn cng ngn d n u t cng tt.Tiu chun
PPPayback Period Criteria33Nhng trc tin, chng ta phi thit lp thi
gian thu hi vn ti a m c th chp nhn c (thi gian thu hi vn chun)34
Cch tnh thi gian hon vn - PPVn u t ban u: 8.000$Dng tin tch ly n
cui nm th hai: 7.000$S lng cn tip tc c b p (1-2): 1.000$Dng tin n
cui nm th ba: 5.000$Dng (3) chia cho dng (4) (1.000$/5.000$): 0,2
nmThi gian thu hi vn (2 nm + 0,2 nm): 2,2 nmTiu chun PPPayback
Period Criteria35PP v quyt nh la chn d ni vi cc d n c lpPP < [
PP] : chnPP < [ PP] : Loi
i vi cc d n loi tr ln nhau, d n c chn l d n c: PP < [ PP] v
PP nh nht Tiu chun PPPayback Period CriteriaD nNmNPV 10%IRRPP012345
A-10.0001.0002.0003.0004.00010.0003.75719,7%4
nmB-10.0005.0003.0002.0001.0001.0001699,1%3
nmC-10.0009.0005005001.0001.00027511,9%3 nm36u nhc im ca PPTt c dng
tin pht sinh sau thi gian thu hi vn b b qua hon ton. Phng php PP
cng b qua kt cu ca dng tin theo thi gian trong thi k hon vn. Tiu
chun PPPayback Period Criteria36Gii thch v sao ch tiu thi gian thu
hi vn c th i n nhng quyt nh sai lm. Nu thi gian thu hi vn chun l 4
nm th d n 2 hoc s c chn.Nhng trn ht, tiu chun ny b qua yu t gi tr
tin t theo thi gian.tuy nhin ,chng ta s xem xt nhng kha cnh sau: nu
chng ta khng ch n thi gian thu hi vn th kha cnh no chng ta b qua yu
t ri ro. Thi gian thu hi vn cng nhanh, ri ro cng thp. Th hai, ch
tiu ny nn c p dng vi cc ch tiu khc. Bng 10.5 trang 24437 PP gip qun
l yu t ri ro khi thm nh d n. Tiu chun thi gian thu hi vn nn c kt hp
vi cc tiu chun khc nh NPV hoc IRR khi thm nh d n. Tiu chun thi gian
thu hi vn t ra n gin, d s dng. D vy vn ny li khng quan trng lm
trong iu kin tin hc ha ton cu hin nay.Tiu chun PPPayback Period
Criteria38Mt trong nhng khim khuyt ca tiu chun PP l n b qua tnh cht
gi tr tin t theo thi gian v tiu chun DPP s khc phc nhc im ny.
V d :Mt d n u t i hi 12,5% li nhun trn tng vn u t b ra. D n c s
vn u t ban u l 300$ v mi nm to ra dng tin dng l 100$ trong 5 nm.
Tiu chun DPPDiscounted Payback Period CriteriaDng tinDng tin ly
kNmKhng chit khuChit khuKhng chit khuChit khu12345100 $100 $100
$100 $100 $89$79$70$62$55$100$200$ => 300$400$500$89$168$238$
=> 300$ 355$39Tiu chun DPPDiscounted Payback Period
CriteriaNm100$ pht sinh u hng nm (dng tin d kin)300$ chi ph u t ban
u (gi tr u t trong tng lai)01234
0 $100213339481 642300 $33838042748154140Tiu chun DPPDiscounted
Payback Period Criteria410 1 2 3 4 5 $700 -
600
500
400 300
200
100
FV ca vn u t ban uFV dng tin ca d nNmGia tr tng lai642 $541
$481$42Tiu chun thi gian thu hi vn cho nh u t bit c thi gian thu hi
vn thc s ca d n (c tnh n yu t gi tr tin t theo thi gian).Khi gii hn
thi gian thu hi vn thch hp c xc nh th dng tin pht sinh pha sau n s
b b qua.Mt d n c thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu ngn hn ca mt d n khc
nhng iu ny khng c ngha l d n ny c NPV ln hn u nhc im ca DPP Tiu
chun DPPDiscounted Payback Period CriteriaCh tiu s dngLun lun hoc
thng xuyn s dng (%)Ch tiu IRRCh tiu NPVCh tiu PPCh tiu DPPCh tiu
PICc ch tiu khc75.6%74.9%56.7%29.5%11.9%30.3%43Thng k t l % gim c
ti chnh cc cng ty ln s dng cc phng php thm nh d n u t khc nhauThng
kStatisticsCh tiuS dng chnhS dng ph trCh tiu PPCh tiu IRRCh tiu
NPVCc ch tiu khc 5%65,3%16,5%13,2% 37.6%14.6%30.0%17.8%Tng cng
100%100%44Thng k t l % cc cng ty a quc gia ln trn th gii s dng cc
phng php thm nh d n u t khc nhauThng kStatistics44Bi 22 chng 10Q
& A!
