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Thm nh ti chnh

d n u t

2

NI DUNG CHNH

Xc nh dng tin ca d n

Thm nh ti chnh d n u t trong cciu kin thu xp vn khc nhau

Cc phng php thm nh d n

Xp hng v la chn d n trong iu kinvn u t hu hn

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C-2IMPORTANT CASH FLOW CONCEPTS

cCckhI nimquantrng vdngtin

Dng tin tng thm (Incremental cash flow): tt c mi s thayi trong dng tin mt trong tng lai ca cng ty do kt qu trctip ca d n Ch ph khng khi phc c (sunk costs): mt loi chi ph xy ra v khng th ly li c do vy khng c xem xet ntrong quyt nh u t Chi ph c hi (opportunity cost): mt d n khc c gi tr nhtb b qua nu thc hin mt d n no Khi phc vn lu ng : cn tnh gi tr ca vn lu ng tithi im kt thc d n Ch ph ti chnh: chi ph li v tr dn khon vay khng tr khidng tin khi nh gi hiu qu ca ton b d n.Cn nhc xem mt s chi ph c nh c thc s l dng chi ph

pht sinh thm khng.

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C-2

IMPORTANT CASH FLOW CONCEPTS

CCc tnh hung trong tnhton dng tin d n

D n mi

D n m rng

D n thay th

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C-2

IMPORTANT CASH FLOW CONCEPTS

Vn u t- dng tin raTon b chi ph mua sm ti sn v a ti sn vohot ng. Gm c:

Gi bn ca my Chi ph vn chuyn Chi ph lp t Chi ph o to Vn lu ng tng thm vn hnh my mi

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Dng tin vo S tin khu hao trong k

Li nhun sau thu

Thu hi vn lu ng

Ga tr TSC thu hi khi d n kt thc

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Nghin cu tnh hungMt d n s chm dt hot ng sau 5 nm hot ng khi

y c mt th h sn phm mi ra i thay th sn phmm n ang sn xut. Hin trng TSC v d kin u t voTSC trong 5 nm ti nh sau:

1. TSC l my mc thit b nguyn gi 650 triu, c thigian khu khao 10 nm, s dng 2 c nm, d kin sau5 nm na s bn i c 275 triu.

2. Nh ca c nguyn gi 480 triu, c thi gian khu hao10 nm, khu hao 3 nm. D kin vo u nm th 2 tis u t nng cp vi chi ph 30 triu ng. Sau 5 nm khid n gii th, nh ca c gi bn 80 triu.

Hy tnh dng tin ca d n, bit doanh nghip ang pdng phng php khu hao u v phi np thu TNDN cthu sut 28%.

8537.8811811811883Dng tin

7.28Thu

- 26Li, l

80Bn

4848484848Khu hao nh ca

5555Khu hao u t

-30u t

-22,4Thu

80Li, l

275Bn

6565656565Khu hao my mcthit b

54321Nm th

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Cc phng php thm nh d n

Phng php thi gian thu hi vn (PBP)

Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)

Phng php t sut sinh li ni b (IRR)

Phng php chs sinh li (PI)

Phng php thi gian thu hi vn cchit khu (DPBP)

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B-5

Thi hn hon vnKhong thi gian cn thit cho mt d n to ra

dng tin mt hon li vn u t

Nguyn tcMt khon u t s c chp nhn nu thi gian

hon vn ngn hn mt s nm c quy nh t trc

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Trng hp th nht: cc khan thu nhp hngnm bng nhau, to nn mt chui thu nhp ngnht

K hon vn = Chi ph u t/ Thu nhp hngnm

Trng hp th hai: Cc khan thu ca d nto thnh cc dng tin bt thng

Phng php thi hn hon vn

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Bi tp tnh hungMt doanh nghip c hai d n u t l A v B, c vn u

tbng nhau v u bng 100.000.000. Thu nhp mi nm (Tkhu hao v li nhun sau thu) ca mi d n l:

Hy dng tiu chun thi gian hon vn la chn dn no c hiu qu nu:

a. Thi gian hon vn t ra l di 2 nm.

b. Thi gian hon vn t ra l khng vt qu 3 nm.

40503

40502

Thu nhp/ nmNm

40501

120150Tng

D n BD n A

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Bi tp tnh hungCng ty A hin ang s dng mt chic xe c nguyn gi

100 triu, khu hao c 70% nhng gi tr th trng hin naych 20 triu.

Mt d n a ra l mua xe mi thay th xe c. Chicxe mi ny c gi 120 triu, c thi gian s dng l 5 nm, gi trthanh l sau 5 nm c tnh 8 triu. Theo h s thit k th vo unm th 3 phi nng cp v chi ph l 15 triu (thi gian nng cpc th b qua). Nu s dng chic xe ny th mi nm mang li linhun trc thu nh sau:

Nm 1: 20 triu Nm 2: 30 triuNm 3: 30 triu Nm 4: 40 triu:Nm 5: 20 triuBit Cng ty ang p dng phng php khu hao u v

phi np thu thu nhp doanh nghip c thu sut 28%.Ban gi m c Cng ty cho bit cc d n u tmun thc

thi th phi c thi gian hon vn khng qu 3 nm.Vy d n mua xe mi c thc hin c khng?

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n gin, d p dng v c s dng nhmt cng c sng lc

Phng php ny rt c a chung ccdoanh nghip ngho tin mt. i vi ccdoanh nghip ny, tuy t doanh li thp

nhng li c k han vn ngn, s c li hnnhng d n tuy c doanh li hp dn nhngc k han vn di

Phng php thi hn hon vn

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Nhc im th nht ca phng php hon

vn l khng quan tm n gi tr thi gian

ca tin t

Nhc im th hai ca phng php ny l

khng cp ti s li nhun thu c ngoithi gian hon vn

Nhc im ca PBP

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Khi nim: theo phng php ny, ngi taa cc khan thu v cc khan chi ca dn v gi tr hin ti v so snh chng vinhau

Gi n: thi gian sng ca d n (nm)

Ti: khon thu ca d n nm th i

(i=0-n)r: t l chit khu (t l hin ti ha)

Si: khan chi cho u t nm th i(i=0-n)

Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)

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== +

+

=n

ii

n

ii r

Si

r

TiNPV

00 )1()1(

Ph

ng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)

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B-7

Thi hn hon vn c chit khu

di thi gian cn thit dng tin c chit khu bng chi ph ban u

Nguyn tc ca phng php

Mt khon u t s c chp nhn nu

khong thi gian chit khu nh hn mt s nmxc nh trc

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B-8

Net Present Value (NPV)/Gi tr hin ti rng

S khc nhau gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin ca mtd n v chi ph ca n

Gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin ca mt d n c tnhbng cch s dng t l thu hi yu cu nh t l chit khu

Mt khon u t s c chp nhn nu NPV khngm v s b loi nu NPV m

Mt d n c NPV khng m ngha l n to ra cc dngtin mt p ng c t l thu hi c yu cu

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B-9

Internal Rate of Return (IRR)/T l thu hi ni bL t l chit khu cNPV= 0

Nguyn tc ca phng phpMt khon u t c chp nhn nu IRR cao

hn t lsinh liyu cu ca nh u t. Ngc li s bbc b.

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B-11

Profitability Index (P.I.) [also known as Benefit-CostRatio (BCR)]:

Ch s li nhun PI (cn c gi l t s chi ph - li chBCR)

Gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin trong tng laica mt d n u t chia cho vn u t ban u

Nguyn tc ca phng php

Mt d n s c chp nhn nu ch s PI ca nln hn 1. Ngc li s b bc b

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B-12

u im ca phng php ch s li nhun

Lin quan trc tip n NPV, thng a n cng chungkt lun D hiu Hu hiu khi cc ngun vn u t hu hn

Cc nhc im ca phng php

C th dn n quyt nh sai lm khi so snh cc d nu t loi tr nhau

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B-14B

So snh vic s dng cc phng php ny qua thi gian

1959 1964 1970 1975 1977 1979 1981

Thi hn hon vn 34% 24% 12% 15% 9% 10% 5.0%

T l sinh li k ton 34 30 26 10 35 14 10.7

IRR 19 38 57 37 54 60 65.3

NPV --- --- --- 26 10 14 16.5

IRR or NPV 19 38 57 63 64 74 81.8

Sources: J. S. Moore and A. K. Reichert, An Analysis of the Financial Management

Techniques Currently Employed

by Large U. S. Corporations, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting (Winter1983) pp. 623-45;

M.T. Stanley and S. R. Block, A Survey of Multinational Capital Budgeting, The

Financial Review (March 1984)

pp. 36-51

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B-15

tm tt cc phng php nhgi D N u t

Thi hn hon vnThi hn hon vn chit khuGi tr hin ti rng (NVP)T l sinh li ni b (IRR)Ch s li nhun

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Phng php gi tr hin ti rng (NPV)

Xc nh t l t l chit khu

T l thng c dng l chi ph s dng vn

Trong :

r: chi ph s dng vn bnh qun

fi: t trng vn loi i so vi tng vn u t

ri: chi ph s dng vn loi i

n: tng s cc loi vn c s dng

=

=n

i

iirfr1

Thm nh d n trong iu kin

cc ngun vn khc nhau

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Xt mt d n vi cc d kin sau:

Doanh thu 500 triu/nm (trong mt tng lai v hn)

Chi ph hot ng (tin mt)/nm: 80% doanh thu

Vn u tc bn: 380 triu

Thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip: t = 28%

Thm nh d n trong iu kincc ngun vn khc nhau

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Chi ph s dng vn ch s hu (khi khng sdng n vay) r0 = 20%

000.000.20000.000.3802.0

000.000.72

000.000.380%)201(

000.000.72

1

==

+

=

=nk

NPV

Trng hp 1:u t bng vn t c

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Thay i v dng tin :

Tit kim v thu

P(t) =D x rD x t

Trong : P(t): khon li v thu

D: vn vayrD: li sut vay

t: thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip

Trng hp 2: Mt phn vn u t l tin vay

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Trng hp 2: Vn u tc bn c ti trt n vay vi h s n 25%, li xut vay r=10%

))(1( 00 DE rrtE

Drr

+=

32

Gii hn vnGi thit vn u t ti a = 550.000$k= 12%

D n Vn u tPV ca dng

tin voNPV IRR PI

A 550.000$ 655.000 105.000 15% 1,19B 350.000 435.000 85.000 17,7% 1,24C 140.000 178.000 38.000 20,2% 1,27D 60.000 69.000 9.000 14,9% 1,15E 470.000 473.000 3.000 12,2% 1,01

F 250.000 247.000 -3.000 11,7% 0,99

Kt hp li:B,C,D VT = 550.000$ NPV = 132.000$A VT = 550.000$ NPV = 105.000$D,E VT = 530.000$ NPV = 12.000$

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Bc 1: xc nh NPV ca d n

Bc 2: tnh EAA ca tng d n

Bc 3: d n no c kt qu bc 2 ln nht l d n c lachn

La chn d n u t thuc loi xung khc

c tui th khc nhau (khng ng nht vthi gian)

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Cng ty XNK lng thc cn mua mt my nh bng go.c tin ny c hai hng n cho hng:

Hng A cho mt loi my c gi tr 100 triu, c thi gian sdng l 2 nm (gi tr thanh l khng ng k) v mi nm mangli mt khon thu nhp rng 70 triu.

Hng B cho mt loi my c gi tr hin nay l 150 triu, cthi gian s dng l 4 nm v gi tr thanh l khng cn tnh ti.Nu cng ty s dng my ny th mi m mang li cho cng tymt khon thu nhp rng l 55 triu.

Bit chi ph s dng vn ca cng ty l 10%.Hy dng tiu chun NPV la chn nn mua my ca hng

no?

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Mu thun gia NPV v IRR

IRR c din t bng mt t l %

NPV c o bng s tin c th

V vy khi c mu thun gia NPV v IRR th

tiu chun NPV s thch hp hn, nu mc tiu

ca doanh nghip l ti a ha li nhun

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Bi tp tnh hungCng ty xy dng cng trnh ngm thuc Tng cng ty xydng S ang ng trc s la chn mua chic my pht b tng

A hay B. Nu mua my A c gi 10.000 USD, sau 1 nm s dng

mang li li nhun sau thu l 2.000 USD. Cn nu mua my B

vi gi 12.000 USD sau 1 nm s dng c li nhun sau thu l

2.300 USD. C hai my u c thi gian s dng l 1 nm v gi

tr thanh l c th b qua.

Hy dng tiu chun gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) v t sut

doanh li ni b (IRR) la chn.

Nu bit chi ph s dng vn bnh qun ca Tng cng ty l

10%.

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Thm nh d n trong iu kinc ri ro

Phng php t sut chit khu c iu

chnh theo mc ri ro

Theo phng php ch quan

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Theo phng php khch quan

Trong :

r: t l chit khu (t l hin ti ha, hoc cth l chi ph s dng vn)

r(d): t l chit khu y (t l chit khuc iu chnh theo mc mo him

q: xc sut xut hin ri ro

q

rdr

=

1)(