Bosna i Hercegovina 2025.: Scenariji budućeg razvoja događaja”

8/13/2019 Bosna i Hercegovina 2025.: Scenariji budućeg razvoja događaja”.

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& MG] =C:CG =CE;>C;EG ]:= LDE[GA@>D[PEB=BMN C?EGG <GHG<= DL NDHGEM[GMCU6?G =C:CG <GHG< ]:= CD KG >D[PEB=GA DL DMG8EG=BAGMC@ .B>GJ8EG=BAGMC=@ C?G KB>:[GE:<P:E<B:[GMC:Ej =j=CG[@ :MA C?G >GMCE:<NDHGEM[GMCU 6?B= NDHGEM[GMC ]:= CD KGNBHGM F;EB=AB>CBDM DHGE C?G =C:CG [B<BC:EjLDE>G@ C?G =BMN<G PDG LDE>G@ BMCGEM:< =GJ

PDj@ M:C;E:< EG=D;E>G=@ LDEGBNM PDj:MA BMCGEM:CBDM:< EG<:CBDM=@ := ]G<< :=

?BN?GE GA;>:CBDM@ CGECB:Ej [GAB>:< >:EGL:>B<BCBG= :MA C?G >D[[;MB>:CBDM= =G>JCDEU #PG>B:< :CCGMCBDM

]:= P:BA CD =;=JC:BM:K<G AGHG<DPJ

[GMC :MA C?G

[:M:NG[GMC DL M:C;E:< EG=D;E>G= ]BCC?G LD>;= DM ?jAEDPD]GE :MA EGMG:K<G GMGENjU 6?G Gk;:<BCj DL :<< PGD]:= CD KG GM=;EGA Kj C?G MG]<j G=C:K<B=?GA #;PEG[G 3D;ECU

6?G [BAJ<GHG< DL NDHGEM:M>G ]:=KG >D[PEB=GA DL CGEEBCDEB:< ;MBCC?GBE D]M :A[BMB=CE:CBDM AG=BNM

J=:Ej >D=C=U 6?G CGEEBCDEB:< ;MBC= ]KG G=C:K<B=?GA :>>DEABMN CD NGDN

BMLE:=CE;>C;E:<@ G>DMD[B> :MA >;<L:>CDE=@ C:RBMN BMCD >DM=BAGE:GC?MB> AB=PGE=BDM DL PDP;<:CBDMGHGE PD==BK<GU &<< ;MBC= ]GEG CDGM [G>?:MB=[= DL PEDCG>CBDM :N:BAB=>EB[BM:CBDM@ ]?B<G :<=D EGBMBMCGEJGC?MB> EG=PG>C :MA C?;= PEG

C?G L;C;EG GMA:MNGE[GMC DL :M

GC?MB>@ EG<BNBD;= =D>B:< NED;P=U 6?G;MBC= ]GEG CD KG<BMRGA C?ED;N?: =GEBG= DL BMJL E : = C E ; > C ; E : <AGHG<DP[GMCPEDNE:[[G= :=]G<< := >ED==JKDEAGE >DDPGE:JCBDMU 6?G=G PEDJNE:[= ]GEG CD

NE:MC= :MA <D]J

BMCGEG=C AGHG<DP[GM<D:M= PEDHBAGA Kj C?G BM

CGEM:CBDM:< >D[[;MBCj BM D



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A G ECD KDD=CG [ P < D j J

[GMC BM C?GPEDA;>CBHG =G>CDE=U

6?G 3D;M>B< DL 6GEEBCDJEB:< 5MBC= ]:= CD KG G=J

C:K<B=?GA := : >DM=;<C:JCBHG :MA P<:MMBMN KDAjC:=RGA ]BC? PEDPD=BMN [G:=;EG= LDE C?G=D>B:< :MA G>DMD[B> AGHG<DP[GMC DLCGEEBCDEB:< ;MBC= CD C?G =C:CG NDHGEM[GMC:MA [DMBCDEBMN C?GBE B[P<G[GMC:CBDMU

6?G C?BEA@ [;MB>BP:< <GHG<@ >DDEABM:CJ

GA Kj C?G 3D;M>B< DL 9;MB>BP:<BCBG=@ ]:=CD KG NBHGM =CEDMN >D[PGCGM>G= :MA>?:ENGA ]BC? [GGCBMN [D=C DL >BCBTGM=oMGGA= Kj PEDHBABMN =GEHB>G= P;E=;:MC CDC?G *;EDPG:M 3?:ECGE DL 7D>:< #G<LJ-DHJGEM[GMC@ : KDAj ]?B>? B= N;BAGA Kj C?GPEBM>BP<G DL =;K=BAB:EBCjU

6?G EGLDE[=@ B[P<G[GMCGA Kj C?CE:M=BCBDM:< NDHGEM[GMC := ]G<<C?G MG] NDHGEM[GMC G<G>CGA BM =C:KB<B=GA C?G >D;MCEjU 7GNB=<:CBEGLDE[GA BM DEAGE CD EG[DHG :A[BCE:CBHG K:EEBGE= LDE BMHG=C[GMCPEDHBAG : ?G:<C?BGE ><B[:CG LDE #9*=]G<< := CD BMCEDA;>G C:i EGA;>CBDM==;K=BABG= C?:C ]D;<A BM>EG:=G G[P<[GMC E:CG@ KDD=C GiPDEC= :MA B[PEC?G >D;MCEjo= G>DMD[B> E:CBMN=U:>?BGHG[GMC DL PD<BCB>:<@ G>DMD[

=D>B:< =C:KB<BCj >:;=G= : EG<:i:CBDM BMB> CGM=BDM= :MA <G:A= CD : ?BN?GDL =D>B:< >D?G=BDMU 6?G=G EGLDE[= *5 >:MABA:CG =C:C;= LDE !D=MB: :MA )GTGNDHBM: BM /0/0 :MA BC= :>>G==BDC?G *5 BM /0/1U

&<C?D;N? C?G =CE;>C;EG DL PD<BC

=j=CG[ BM /0/1 B= =CB<< >D[P<Gi@ C?G PMBMN@ AG>B=BDMJ[:RBMN :MA B[P<GCBDM PED>G==G= :EG AGHG<DPBMN BM

EG=;<C= BM PD=BCBHG >DM=Gk;GM>G=!D=MB:MJ)GETGNDHBMB:M G>DMD[j :M?BN?GE =C:MA:EA DL <BHBMNU





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=j=CG[ DL =D>B:< PEDCG>CBDM :MA :<<JED;MAPDHGECj >:;=GA [:==BHG =D>B:< ;MEG=CU6?G Aj=L;M>CBDM:< :MA >D[P:CGA PDJ<BCB>:< =j=CG[ PEDHGA CD KG : [:FDE DKJ=C:><G BM C?G PED>G== DL *;EDJ&C<:MCB>BMCGNE:CBDMU &LCGE C?G /0I0 *<G>CBDM=@:MA :M GiCEG[G<j <DMN AG<:j BM LDE[BMNC?G =C:CG NDHGEM[GMC@ C?G /0Ib -GMGE:<

*<G>CBDM= PEDHGA CD KG :M GHGM <:ENGE ABJ=:=CGE BM CGE[= DL K;B<ABMN : =C:K<G PD<BCBJ>:< >D:<BCBDM :C C?G GMCBCj :MA =C:CG <GHG<U$:CBDM:<B=CB> E?GCDEB>@ >?:;HBMB=[ :MA?:CG L;G<<GA Kj C?G AB=>D;E=G DL PD<BCBJ>:< P:ECBG= :MA C?G [GAB:@ CEBNNGEGA E:MJAD[ :>C= DL BMCGEJGC?MB> HBD<GM>G ]?B>?]GEG AG=BNMGA CD =?BLC :CCGMCBDM LED[C?G AGCGEBDE:CBMN G>DMD[j@ C?G <:>R DLAGHG<DP[GMC =CE:CGNBG= :MA =C:NNGEBMN;MG[P<Dj[GMCU

%M /0I1@ MGBN?KD;EBMN 3ED:CB: ]:=

C?G >:MABA:>j PED>G==U )D]GHGE@ A;G CDC?G GM<:ENG[GMC L:CBN;G ]BC?BM C?G *5@

#GEKB:o= :>>G==BDM ]:= P;C DM ?D<AU =CBEEGA AB=>DMCGMC :[DMN BC= >BCKED;N?C :KD;C C?G AG=C:KB<B=:CBDM PD<BCB>:< =BC;:CBDM BM C?G >D;MCEj

K:CGA Kj AG[:MA= LDE [DEG :;CDMD[j BM.DFHDABM: :MA C?G #:MAT:R@ :MA :<=D >:;=G DL C?G =CB<< ;MEG=D<HGA OD=DH

!j C?G GMA DL C?G jG:E@ PD<BCB>:< BM !B) ]GEG =CB<< ;M:K<G CD LDE[ : NDH[GMC :C C?G =C:CG <GHG<@ >;<[BM:CBAB=>DMCGMCU &C C?G =:[G CB[G@ C?G

M:CBDM:< >D[[;MBCj P;=?GA LDE >DM=C;CBDM:< >?:MNG= C?:C ]D;<A =CEGMNC?G =C:CG >D[PGCGM>G=@ K;C ]?B>? ];M:>>GPC:K<G LDE C?G P:ECBG= BM +GP#EP=R:U 6?G PD<BCB>B:M= LED[ +# :ENC?:C C?G =C:<G[:CG PEGHGMCGA G>DMAGHG<DP[GMC :MA ;MAGE[BMGA PD<

:MA C?G C]D GMCBCBG=U 6?GEG ]:= MD [DM =C:CG <GHG< G>DMD[B> =CE:CGNj@

G=PG>B:<<j EGN:EABMN C?G AB=CEBKC:iG= :MA L;MA= LED[ C?G =C:CG <GHG]:EA= C?G GMCBCBG= :MA !ErRD (B=CEB+# PD<BCB>B:M= PEG=GMCGA C?B= := DC?GE EG:=DM ]?j@ BM C?GBE HBG]@ B[PD==BK<G LDE !B) CD KG [:BMC:BMG



: =C:CGU 6?GEGLDEG@ C?Gj AG>BAGA CD ?D<AEGLGEGMA;[ DM C?G =G>G==BDM DL C?G +#LED[ !D=MB: :MA )GETGNDHBM:U +G:>CBDM=LED[ C?G 4GAGE:CBDM ]GEG [:==BHG :MAHD<:CB<G@ C?G EGLGEGMA;[ KGBMN PGE>GBHGA:= : PED><:[:CBDM DL ]:EU

%M C?G KGNBMMBMN DL /0Ia@ :<< C?EGGGC?MB> NED;P= ]GEG [DKB<BTBMN@ L;G<<GAKj E:PBA BM>EG:=G BM GC?MB> CGM=BDM=:MA ?D=CB<G :MA DPGM<j :NNEG==BHG P;KJ AB=>D;E=G ]?B>? ]:= =;PPDECGA :MA

GMLDE>GA Kj C?G [GAB:U 4EGk;GMC :CJC:>R= DM EGC;EMGG= BM KDC? GMCBCBG=@ C?GLDE[BMN DL P:E:[B<BC:Ej NED;P= :MA C?G

CD G=>:<:CG BMCD : >BHB< ]:EU 6?G G=>:<:CJBMN HBD<GM>G PED[PCGA $&6" CD <:;M>?: [B<BC:Ej BMCGEHGMCBDMU 6?G =]BLC EG:>JCBDM DL C?G BMCGEM:CBDM:< >D[[;MBCj ]:=

:M GiPEG==BDM DL C?G <G==DM= <G:EMGALED[ C?G P:=C [B=C:RG=@ G=PG>B:<<jC?D=G >D[[BCCGA BM !D=MB: :MA)GETGNDHBM: BM C?G Idd/ n Idd1PGEBDAU 6?G DKFG>CBHG DL C?B= [B=J=BDM ]:= MDC DM<j CD P:>BLj C?G

J<BTG C?G =BC;:CBDM BM C?G EGNBDMKj >EG:CBMN : L;M>CBDM:< =C:CGLE:[G]DERU &LCGE jG:E= DLAG:<BMN ]BC? M;[GED;= BM=CBJC;CBDM= :MA EGPEG=GMC:CBHG=:C Ib ABLLGEGMC NDHGEM:M>G<GHG<=@ C?G *5 :MA C?G EG=CDL C?G BMCGEM:JCBDM:<

>D[[;MBCj P;=?GA LDE : >GMCE:<BTG=C:CG BM DEAGE CD [:RG >D[[;MB>:CB:MA >DDPGE:CBDM ]BC? C?G :;C?DEBC

C?:C C?G BMCGEG=C= DL #GEK= BM !BGMA:MNGEGAU )D]GHGE@ :LCGE =CED<BCB>:< PEG==;EG Kj C?G BMCGEM:CBD[;MBCj BC EGMD;M>GA BC= DPPD=BCBD

6?G ND:< DL C?B= [B==BDM ]:= MDC D J

G[PD]GE C?G G=C:K<B=?GA GC?MB> PD>:< G<BCG=@ [D=C DL C?G[ BM PD]GE =

>DMHDRGA : M:CBDM:< >DMHGMCBDMPEB=BMN C?G EGPEG=GMC:CBHG= DL GCj@ :>:AG[B:@ CE:AG ;MBDM= :MA D=D>B:< NED;P=@ ]:= LDE[GA CD :[GMA

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C?G >DM=CBC;CBDM :MA G<G>C : CE:M=BCBDM:<NDHGEM[GMCU

8EG==;EG ]:= GiGECGA DM PD<BCB>B:M=

:MA )GETGNDHBM: := : >GMCE:<B=GA =C:CG]BC? BMJK;B<C [G>?:MB=[= LDE C?G PEDJCG>CBDM :N:BM=C :Mj RBMA DL AB=>EB[BM:JCBDMU 6?G MG] 3DM=CBC;CBDM@ :ADPCGA Kj

BM !D=MB: :MA )GETGNDHBM: := >BCBTGM=]BC? Gk;:< EBN?C= :MA BMABHBA;:< LEGGJ

AD[= :MA : PD<BCB>:< =j=CG[ AG=BNMGACD >D[PEB=G DMG 8EG=BAGMC@ DMG =CEDMN>GMCE:< NDHGEM[GMC@ : KB>:[GE:< P:E<B:J[GMC :MA [;MB>BP:<BCBG=U 9DEGDHGE@ MG]

G<G>CBDM <GNB=<:CBDM]:= BMCEDA;>GA CDPEDCG>C GC?MB> :MA[BMDEBCj EBN?C= Kj

;=BMN C?G PEBM>BP<GDL [:MA:CG EDC:J

CBDM :C :<< <GHG<=DL NDHGEJ

M:M>G KGJC]GGM C?GC?EGG <:ENJG=C GC?MB>

NED;P= :MA"C?GE=U &MjL;C;EG PD==BKB<JBCj DL K<D>RBMNC?G L;M>CBDMBMN

DL C?G =C:CG :MAEG=DECBMN CD G<G>J

CBDM EBNNBMN ]:=PEGHGMCGAU

6?G /0IS -GMGE:< *<G>CBDM= PEDA;>GMG] PD<BCB>:< G<BCG=@ ]?B>? G[GENC?G DMGJjG:E PGEBDA DL CE:M=CBDMGEM[GMC := : EG=;<C DL BMCGM=BHGBMN DL C?G BMCGEM:CBDM:< :>CDE= P!B) =D>BGCjU 6?G BMCGEM:CBDM:< >DMBCj AGHG<DPGA :M G>DMD[B> P<:M =CD C?G L:[D;= m9:E=?:<< 8<:Me@ KDD=CBMN BMLE:=CE;>C;EG@ G[P<Dj[GMC G>DMD[jU 6?B= EG=;<CGA BM : EG<:i:CDL GC?MB> CGM=BDM= A;G CD =;K=C:MPEDHG[GMC DL C?G k;:<BCj DL <BLG :M

=C:MA:EA DL <BHBMN LDE !B) >BCBTGMG] =C:CG =CE;>C;EG GM:K<GA C?G >EG

:MA : =;=C:BM:K<G AGHG<DP[GMC =CE:C]?B>?@ BM >D[KBM:CBDM ]BC? : =GC DLEGLDE[=@ >EG:CGA : =C:K<G ><B[:CG LDGBNM ABEG>C BMHG=C[GMC=U 6?G EGAC?G ?G:Hj :A[BMB=CE:CBDM [:AG PD==B

=;K=C:MCB:< =;K=BABG= :MA =;PPDEC NE:[= LDE <D>:< >D[P:MBG=@ ]?B>? ]:=

DL C?G <D>:< G>DMD[j@ HGEj [;>? CD C=:CB=L:>CBDM DL !B) >BCBTGM= :MA C?M:CBDM:< >D[[;MBCj :<BRGU +GNBDM:DPGE:CBDM ]:= L;EC?GE B[PEDHGA :MA

CD]:EA= *;EDJ&C<:MCB> BMCGNE:CBDC?G ?G:MABA:CG =C:C;=LDE *5 :>>G==BDM BM /0Id :MA KG>:[G [G[KGE BM _:M;:Ej DL /0/1U & =C:K<G PDJ<BCB>:< :MA =D>B:< GMHBEDM[GMC BM





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GE= ]?D >:[G CD PD]GE DM C?G ]:HG DL:M BAGD<DNB>:< P:E:ABN[ =?BLC@ G[KE:>GAG>DMD[B> BMCGEAGPGMAGM>G := : ]DERJBMN P<:CLDE[U 6?Gj AG>BAGA CD

;PNE:AG C?G G>DMD[B> GMHBEDM[GMCBM=CG:A DL P<:jBMN C?G BEE:CBDM:< GC?MB> ABHB=BDM@ =C:ECGA P<:jBMNDL EGNBDM:< PEGLGEGM>G= :MA G>D

BMCGEG=C=U 4;EC?GE[DEG@ Kj C?:C C]:E >EB[BM:<= BM C?G !:<R:M= ?:A KGGPED=G>;CGA :MA BMCGEJGC?MB> CG>:[G CD EG=CU & ]BAGJ=PEG:A >:[P:BNMLDE EG>DM>B<B:CBDM ;MAGE C?G =<DNGE :N:BM ]:Ese CDDR P<:>G BM C?G ]?D<EGNBDM@ :>>D[P:MBGA Kj M;[GED;= >;C;E:< :MA =PDEC Gi>?:MNG PEDNE:[=U 6?

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:MA C?G m+GNBDM:< 3DDPGE:CBDM3D;M>B<eY+33Z@ C?G <:CCGEo= ?G:Ak;:ECGE=K:=GA BM #:E:FGHD@ ]GEG KGBMN ;=GA := :P<:CLDE[ LDE EGNBDM:< EG>DMMG>CBDM ]BC?C?G DHGE:E>?BMN ND:< CD KGCCGE PEGP:EGC?G >D;MCEBG= ;=G DL C?G *5o= =CE;>C;E:<:MA >D?G=BDM L;MA=U 6?B= >DBM>BAGA ]BC?C?G BMCGMCBDM= DL C?G *5 CD >EG:CG : >D[J[DM G>DMD[B> =P:>G :C BC= #D;C? *:=CJGEM KDEAGE := : RBMA DL m]:BCBMN EDD[mLDE *5 [G[KGE=?BPU

%M : =GEBG= DL [GGCBMN=@ EGNBDM:< <G:AJGE= :MA *5 EGPEG=GMC:CBHG= PEGP:EGA C?GNED;MA LDE C?G L;C;EGU 6?G mlG=CGEM

J>B:<<j >:[G BMCD GiB=CGM>G :C : EGNBDM:<=;[[BC ?G<A BM #:E:FGHD BM /0ISU 6?G!D=MB:J)GETGNDHBMB:M >:PBC:< ]:= >?DJ=GM MDC DM<j := C?G ?G:Ak;:ECGE= DL C?G

+33@ K;C :<=D KG>:;=G !B) B= C?G NGDJNE:P?B>:< ?G:EC DL C?G EGNBDM :MA LDE[=: RBMA DL m[B>EDJ=P?GEGe DL C?G >;<C;E:<JGC?MB>JEG<BNBD;= [:RGJ;P DL C?G EGNBDMU

l!*5 ]:= MDC BMCGMAGA CD KG : =C:CGDE >DMLGAGE:CBDM PGE =G@ K;C E:C?GE CD=GEHG := :M G>DMD[B>:<<jJAEBHGM BMCGNE:JCBDM ]BC?BM C?G NBHGM *5 [G>?:MB=[=U*:>? :MA GHGEj >D;MCEj BM l!*5 ]:= CD

JABHBA;:< PGE=PG>CBHG LDE *5 [G[KGE=?BPUl!*5 ]:= CD EGP<:>G MGBC?GE C?G *5 :=: >D[[DM ND:<@ MDE CD PEG=;PPD=G C?:C:<< C?G >D;MCEBG= BMHD<HGA =?D;<A NBHG;P C?GBE >DM=CBC;CBDM:< LE:[G]DER=@ BMJ=CBC;CBDM:< =GCCBMN= :MA =DHGEGBNMCjU 6?G

>EG:CBDM DL l!*5 ]:= MDC [G:MC CD <G:ACD : MG] q;ND=<:HB:@ K;C E:C?GE := :M BCGNE:CBDM ?:<LJ=CGP CD]:EA= C?G *5U*5 =GEHGA := : RBMA DL [DAG<2 *;EDPGBMCGNE:CBDM =C:ECGA :LCGE lDE<A l:: HGEj [DAG=C <GHG<@ ]BC? C?G G=C:K[GMC DL C?G m*;EDPG:M 3D[[;MBCj DL3D:< :MA #CGG<e@ :MA BC= [:BM P?B<D=]:= G>DMD[B> BMCGNE:CBDM ;P CD =;><GHG< C?:C ]:E :[DMN BC= [G[KGE= ]D;<AMD <DMNGE KG PD==BK<GU 6?GEG ]GG[DCBDM:< B==;G= :C =C:RG@ K;C E:C?G

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