Future of Strategic Foresight June 2014

How to make sense of the external ecosystem

Presented by:Dr Michael JacksonChairman: Shaping

Tomorrow

Achieving persistent strategic agility, advantage and resilience through innovation and risk management

www.shapingtomorrow.com

About us“Shaping Tomorrow is one of the top Global 10 Innovation websites” : Adam Bates KPMG May 2014

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Changing environment

Source: Emery 1980

Unstable

Stable

Simple Complex

Benign Passive

R

eactive Turbulent

Benign Passive

R

eactive Turbulent

Changing environments


Future demand for innovation and risk mgt.

Increasing demand for systematic anticipation and preparedness from:

Governments- Military, Crime, Defence, Food, Health, Animal health, Science …

Commercials- Health, Telecoms, Energy …

Not-for-profits- Health, Water, Science …

A switch from static news gathering to dynamic intelligence reconnaissance and limited analysis to whole system thinking


Systematic foresight

Horizon Scanning and sense-making was a manual process

Continuousand systematic,scanningfor ideas and issues


Focused scanning

Now becoming automated with human input

Scan organisations,scanners, rivals,protesters, regulators, search words etc.


TimeliningGraphical pattern finding


Modelling, gaming and simulation

Visual dashboards as early warning systemsBalanced scorecardsPartnership approaches

Structured data analyticsr

MMORPG’s e.g. IFTFWarcraft equivalents

Visokio

Shaping Tomorrow

Southbeach


World data/big data

Rising interest in mixing large data sets (e.g. GDP and happiness) to spot crisis points earlyMassive funding for global intelligence projectsData fusion

e.g. GapMinderForward indicators e.g.

Shock Index


Predictive analytics

Aims: moving from single keyword to real-time multiplemeta data searches

Scour the webExtract, analyze, rankMake it useful

CollaborationKnowledge managementSearch & discoveryData integration

Big Data uses for Foresight


Content profiling

Filtering Insights and Trends by user profile:e.g. industry, interests, expertise

Sentiment analysise.g. fear, excitement

Narrative capturee.g. ideas

Latent Semantic Indexinge.g. concept searches Bias is essential to avoid

‘group think’ but being conscious of bias from theoutset reduces error andincreases understanding


Strategic thinking

Comprehensive, logical, qualitative and quantitative toolkits for, fast decision making

Analogy | Brainstorm | CLA | Counterpoint | Megatrends | PIR | Red hat | Redefinition | Starburst | Verge | Communicate | Exaggerate | Inspire | Leapfrog | Reverse| Tear-down | Thinking Hats | Vision

Continuous planning and acting


Great foresight tools

Parmenides Eidos: visual strategic options analysisReal-Time Delphi: global opinion studiesRoadmapping Technology: strategic roadmapping software SciCast: crowdsourced predictionAnalysis of Competing Hypotheses: analyze incomplete or ambiguous informationInsights Maker: online simulation and modeling Implications Wheel: group process for discovering and mapping the implications of changeCoggle: a freeware mind-mapping web applicationKumu: cloud-based visualization platform for mapping systems and better understanding relationships


Global solution networks

Foresight communitiesExpert solution providers

- Construction, Design, Security …

Free sites | Rapid delivery | Co-creation | Joint research


Global collaboration

Increasing need for joined up thinking between governments , academia, NGO’s, commercial organisations.

Mobile apps

All channel distribution

Multi-lingual


Gaming & Certification


Web-based education

FreeElectronic guides/books

- linked to content

WebinarsOn-line workshops

…Revenue

Privacy/Multi-licencesVirtual consultancy/mentoringSpecialist needsMOOCS - Online degrees …


Now for the future!

Article and report capture


Basic auto population


Advanced auto population


Background Extraction


Foresight statements


Displaying the results


Search Foresights


Export Foresights


Web Summarizer – Tree View

Plus Mind Maps, Clouds etc.


Web Summarizer – Summary Report


Making sense of the future ecosystem

Extra-ordinary value addedCloud-based rather than home grownOpen/closed collaborationOutsourcing/partneringFast action/reactionConvergence of innovation, risk and business and competitive intelligence systemsFrom subscription to consumption economics!!

Machine/human partnershipMore automated foresightOracle like answersOrganised decision-makingOnline learning for all

But, still human intervention, creativity and decision-making for the foreseeable future

Towards semi-automated sense making – a global brain


Questions?

Mike Jackson: [email protected]

Shaping Tomorrow: www.shapingtomorrow.com

Thanks for listening

Business

Future of Strategic Foresight June 2014