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Introduction to Strategic Foresight
Michel GodetMichel Godet’’s prs préésentationsentation
Unesco 6/30/ 2010Unesco 6/30/ 2010
Anticipation Action
Appropriation
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Five Questions
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Five K
ey Id
eas
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Six
Les
sons
from
Exp
erie
nce
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Five Conditions for Rigor3
Three Attitudes
Clichés
&
Precon
ceived
ideas5
7 Keys forCompetitiveness6
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THE FUTURE IS NOT WRITTENTHE FUTURE IS NOT WRITTEN
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FROM DETERMINISM TO DETERMINATION
The Future Is Not Written Anywhere : Most of It Has Still to Be Built !
The Present Is Condionned By our Viewof The Future ( Consumption of to Day Explained by Future Expected Income)
The Future is Multiple and Uncertain
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Present
Possibles Futures
THE FUTURE IS MULTIPLE AND UNCERTAIN
Past
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Present(s)
Possibles Futures
Plausible Pasts
THE FUTURE AND PAST
ARE MULTIPLE AND UNCERTAIN
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Area of possible scenarios Area of desirablescenarios
Area of plausible scenarios
FROM DETERMINISM TO DETERMINATION
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What Use Is A Wind Without A Direction ? (Seneca)
The Look-out: Anticipate To Avoid The Iceberg !
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FROM DETERMINISM TO DETERMINATION
There Are Three Kinds Of People. Those Who :
Wonder What Happened
Watch Things Happen
Make Things Happen
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THREE BASIC ATTITUDES
If we exclude
Indifference & Passivity
We still have three basic attitudes
Reactivity
Preactivity
ProactivityM
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MAKE DREAMS REAL !
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Five Questions
1
Five K
ey Id
eas
2
Six
Les
sons
from
Exp
erie
nce
5
Five Conditions for Rigor3
Three Attitudes
Clichés
&
Precon
ceived
ideas5
7 Keys forCompetitiveness6
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FIVE BASIC QUESTIONS
Q0 - Who Am I ?
Q1 - What Can Happen ?
Q2 - What Can I Do ?
Q3 - What Will I Do ?
Q4 – How Will I Do It ?
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Who am I ?Where did I come from
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Who am I ?
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TREE OF COMPETENCES Past Present And Future Where Have I Come From ?
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Resourcefulness is the Key
Everyone is faced with the same constraints and opportunities concerning the future, therefore the key to success is not onlyresources but innovation and self-relianceA rent is often a potential weakness : a threat is often a source of opportunity. Handicaps can be transformed into competitive advantagesWith respect to communities -- united we stand, divided we fall. Unity is a strength, division a weakness.What can I do with the resources that I have at my disposal now? (The answer – a lot!)
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Unity is Strength !
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How Can I Do It ?
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Five Questions
1
Five K
ey Id
eas
2
Six
Les
sons
from
Exp
erie
nce
5
Five Conditions for Rigor3
Three Attitudes
Clichés
&
Precon
ceived
ideas5
7 Keys forCompetitiveness6
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Back to basics
According To The Founders Of The Fifties«Long , Wide & Deep ViewsTaking Risks, Thinking About Humankind» Gaston BergerWe Add Three More Features Since 1970« Seing Differently ( Challenging Clichès And
Preconceived Ideas ) Thinking Collectively ( Appropriation)
Using Methods For More Rigor»
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From Anticipation to Action through Appropriation
Teach people how to fishrather than give them the fishScenario Planning as a strategic management tool
FIVE KEY IDEAS
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FIVE KEY IDEAS
Overestimating The Rate Of Change
Underestimating Inertial Factors
The World Changes, But The Problems Stay The Same!
…/…
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Consequences
Futures Are The Result Of Chance, Necessity And WillThe World Is Changing, ProblemsRemainTeaching How To FishAsking The Right Questions Using Simple, Rational Tools
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TechnicallyTechnically but not (but not (yetyet ))SociallySocially PossiblePossible
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In the In the YearYear 2000: 2000: TeachingTeaching Machines!Machines!
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FIVE KEY IDEAS
Challenging conventional wisdom
in order to ask right questions
( No right answer to wrong questions)
When means become the end
Using simple rational tools
Scenarios: use and misuse…/…
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SIX PROBLEMS AND SPECIFIC TOOLS
Asking the Right Questions⇒ Strategic Prospective Workshops(The Problem is the Problem (M. Crozier)
Identifying the Key Variables⇒ Structural Analysis and Micmac method
Analysing the Actors’ Strategies⇒ Mactor Method
…/…
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A SPECIFIC TOOL BOX FOR FUTURE THINKING
Building ScenariosMorphological Analysis
Reducing Uncertainties to Probable ScenariosSmic-Prob-Expert method
Multicriteria Choice in Uncertain FuturesMultipol
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to understand actors’ strategies
to scan the field of possible futures
To lessen uncertainty and to eliminate inconsistency
To assess and select strategic options
Software for Strategic Prospective Software for Strategic Prospective are free and available online in English !are free and available online in English !
To To identifyidentify keykey variablesvariables
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Philantropy through private donations A return to Classical virtuesCreating relationships around mutual benefitsDiffusing knowledge freelySupporting entrepreneurial initiatives and
projectsGrand Prix of non conventional thinking !
The Entrepreneurs’ Circle of the Future
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The Entrepreneurs’ Circle of the FutureM
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10
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www.laprospective.frM
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Five Questions
1
Five K
ey Id
eas
2
Six
Les
sons
from
Exp
erie
nce
5
Five Conditions for Rigor3
Three Attitudes
Clichés
&
Precon
ceived
ideas5
7 Keys forCompetitiveness6
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FIVE CONDITIONS TO ENSURE RIGOUR
RelevanceConsistencyPlausibilityImportanceTransparency
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The most probable scenario has about 15% of chances to happen
N Hyp, R Scenarios, R = 2N scenarios TwoHypotheses H1 H2
Four scenariosS1 1 1S2 1 0S3 0 1S4 0 0∑ prob S k = 1
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What is the most probable scenario ?What is the most plausible situation ?
S1 1 1 prob 0.40S2 1 0 prob 0.25S3 0 1 prob 0.20S4 0 0 prob 0.15
S1 or ? M
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N HypothesesR Scenarios, R = 2N scenarios
5 Hi = 32 scenarios ∑ prob S k = 1 Equiprobability = 1/32 ( 3%)
The most probable scenario is about 15%What is the total probability ot the 3,4,or
5 scenarios developed ?
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The most probable scenario has a low probability and is unlikely to occur
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HOW TO BE RIGOROUS WITH SCENARIO PLANNING ?
• Building consistent scenarios and strategies through morphological analysis
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Fritz Zwicky 1898-1974
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IT5, GLOBAL SCENARIOS
GEOGRAPHICAL AND
GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT
EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
CONDITIONS OF TRADE
AND COMPETITION
Tensions and conflicts
No regulator of interdependence
Limited conflictsin the south and eastern countries Uncertainties in
western countries
New international order of a multipolar
interdependentworld
Failure of the Europe of 12 Come back of nations state
Stable Europe of 12 Integration of markets only
Political integrationof Europe of 12
Extension to new members
National protectionnism
Regionalprotectionnism
(régional barriersand free trade
within the block)
Extension of free trade
strong competitionbetween firms
1 2 3
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Five Questions
1
Five K
ey Id
eas
2
Six
Les
sons
from
Exp
erie
nce
5
Five Conditions for Rigor3
Three Attitudes
Clichés
&
Precon
ceived
ideas5
7 Keys forCompetitiveness6
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SIX LESSONS FROM EXPERIENCE
1. Don’t Confuse Scenarios & Strategies
2. Foresight & Scenarios are not synonymous
3. Simple rational Tools useful:
4. More Endogenous Projects and FewerScenarios
5. Participatory Foresight as a StrategicManagement Process
6. Foresight Process with StakeholdersM
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Don’t Confuse Scenarios and Strategies
ATTITUDES TOWARDS
THE FUTURE
CORRESPONDING
SCENARIOS
CORRESPONDING
STRATEGIES
PASSIVE
REACTIVE
PREACTIVE
PROACTIVE
NONE
NONE
EXPLORATORY
DESIRABLE ALTERNATIVES
GO WITH THE
FLOW
ADAPTIVE
PREVENTIVE
INNOVATIVE
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Some Succesful ForesightExercices
-Air Transport ( Paris Airport Authority, Ministry of Transport)-Agri-Food Sector (BASF & supply Chain)-Automotive Industry (Renault, Distributors)- Energy Distribution (Edf,Total )-Insurance, Banking (Axa, Société Générale)-Regional development (local development, entrepreneurship)
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Where is progress taking us ?Vendôme during the War 14-18 : dog taxis!
A dog-drawn carriage with a chauffeur.
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Ré Island, turn of the 21st century: Where is progress taking us?
A man on a bicycle towing a dog in his trailer.
