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27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 113.08.2007Slides-for-lecture-Christopher-Schläffer.ppt 1
Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom AGPresentation for the IRAHSS 08
René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 2
Content.
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
1 Introduction
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.1 Technology Radar
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
2.3 Customer Foresight
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 3
The ICT industry has to reinvent itself.
Any software developer can offer complex servicesHorizontalization
Shift of value distribution
Market
Liberalization
To value added services and devices
Decreasing revenues in core business
Current influences on the ICT industry (examples)
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 4
Strategic Foresight is a set of tools for early identification and assessment of changes in the environment.
Theoretical Foundation
Strategic management is characterized by a certain ignorance tochanges happening outside their current business (Ansoff 1980)
Strategic discontinuities are announced by weak signals (Ansoff, et al. 1976 )
They have to be identified in the environment (Boizard 2005, Day/ Schoemaker 2005, Lesca/ Caron 1995)
They are usually fuzzy and unstructured (Krystek 2007)
“The search for weak signals is one where you do not know what you are looking for” (Liebl 2005)
Weak Signals
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 5
create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and
functional forward view
detect adverse
conditions
guide policy and shape
strategyexplore new markets
explore new products and
servicesInnovation
Management
Strategic
Management
Strategic
Controlling
Corporate
Development
Strategic
Foresight
Strategic Foresight creates a coherent and functional forward view.
In a fast moving environment it is essential to continuously scan for changes!
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 7
Content.
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
1 Introduction
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.1 Technology Radar
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
2.3 Customer Foresight
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 8
Three major tools at Deutsche Telekom are examples for continuous scanning.
Identification, assessment and anticipation of consumer needs, lifestyle and socio-cultural trends
Customer Foresight
Technology Radar
Assessment of competitors and identification and assessment of
products and service in development or available in lead
markets
Product & Service RadarP&S TR
Identification, assessment and usage of information on emerging
technologies and technological discontinuities
Strategic
Foresight
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 9
The Technology Radar gives a pre-evaluation of relevant up-coming technologies for DTAG.
Summary of technology intelligence findings
60 technologies with relevance for DT AG
Technologies are selected according to:
- Relevance for DT AG
- “Not yet covered inside DT AG”
Technologies are classified according to:
- their development phase
- technological area
- relevance
3G-Femto-Cell
A-IMS
Audio Inf. Mgmt
P2P TV
Semantic Web Services
Music Search
Context Awareness in IMSPlace-shifting
Voice & Video
over WLANRich Internet
EPC
Shared Wireless
SocComp Web 2.0
RuBEE
SOA 2.0
Quadruple Play
Data Stream Mgmt
UC Apps
Supply Line Access
SPEERMINT
VoIP Peering
Document Lifecycle Mgmt
VirtualMIMO
THz Data Comm
User CentricIdentity
SPARQLInteractTV
Internet Indirection
SecureBlue
Quantum Communications
UICCUniversal Chip for
Cell Phones
Desktop Videoconf
WMM™ Power Save
60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set
Network Coding
Molecular Computing
Network DRM
SenseWeb
IP Emergency Calls
Internet Televisions
VoiSearch
MAGNET Beyond
GENI
Mobile Grid
IP Header compression
IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)
E-DRM
Open (Source) Hardware
Mobile Authoring
HybridOptWi
Image-based queries
Kilocore Chips
Remote Hardw. Mgmt
Project Fastball
3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoon
OptIPuter
Sentient Things
3G-Femto-Cell
A-IMS
Audio Inf. Mgmt
P2P TV
Semantic Web Services
Music Search
Context Awareness in IMSPlace-shifting
Voice & Video
over WLANRich Internet
EPC
Shared Wireless
SocComp Web 2.0
RuBEE
SOA 2.0
Quadruple Play
3G-Femto-Cell3G-Femto-Cell
A-IMSA-IMS
Audio Inf. MgmtAudio Inf. Mgmt
P2P TVP2P TV
Semantic Web ServicesSemantic Web Services
Music SearchMusic Search
Context Awareness in IMSContext Awareness in IMSPlace-shiftingPlace-shifting
Voice & Video
over WLAN
Voice & Video
over WLANRich InternetRich Internet
EPCEPC
Shared WirelessShared Wireless
SocCompSocComp Web 2.0Web 2.0
RuBEERuBEE
SOA 2.0SOA 2.0
Quadruple Play Quadruple Play
Data Stream Mgmt
UC Apps
Supply Line Access
SPEERMINT
VoIP Peering
Document Lifecycle Mgmt
VirtualMIMO
THz Data Comm
User CentricIdentity
SPARQLInteractTV
Internet Indirection
SecureBlue
Quantum Communications
UICCUniversal Chip for
Cell Phones
Desktop Videoconf
WMM™ Power Save
60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set
Network Coding
Molecular Computing
Network DRM
SenseWeb
IP Emergency Calls
Internet Televisions
VoiSearch
MAGNET Beyond
GENI
Mobile Grid
IP Header compression
IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)
E-DRM
Open (Source) Hardware
Mobile Authoring
HybridOptWi
Image-based queries
Kilocore Chips
Remote Hardw. Mgmt
Data Stream Mgmt Data Stream Mgmt
UC AppsUC Apps
Supply Line AccessSupply Line Access
SPEERMINTSPEERMINT
VoIP PeeringVoIP Peering
Document Lifecycle MgmtDocument Lifecycle Mgmt
VirtualMIMOVirtualMIMO
THz Data CommTHz Data Comm
User CentricIdentity
User CentricIdentity
SPARQLSPARQLInteractTVInteractTV
Internet IndirectionInternet Indirection
SecureBlueSecureBlue
Quantum CommunicationsQuantum Communications
UICCUICCUniversal Chip for
Cell PhonesUniversal Chip for
Cell Phones
Desktop VideoconfDesktop Videoconf
WMM™ Power Save
WMM™ Power Save
60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set 60-GHz Transceiver Chip Set
Network CodingNetwork Coding
Molecular ComputingMolecular Computing
Network DRMNetwork DRM
SenseWebSenseWeb
IP Emergency CallsIP Emergency Calls
Internet TelevisionsInternet Televisions
VoiSearchVoiSearch
MAGNET BeyondMAGNET Beyond
GENIGENI
Mobile GridMobile Grid
IP Header compressionIP Header compression
IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX, Wibro)
E-DRME-DRM
Open (Source) HardwareOpen (Source) Hardware
Mobile AuthoringMobile Authoring
HybridOptWiHybridOptWi
Image-based queriesImage-based queries
Kilocore ChipsKilocore Chips
Remote Hardw. Mgmt Remote Hardw. Mgmt
Project Fastball
3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoon
OptIPuter
Sentient Things
Project FastballProject Fastball
3-D TV Next Generation 3-D TV Next Generation Customized cartoonCustomized cartoon
OptIPuterOptIPuter
Sentient ThingsSentient Things
DTAG Relevance
High
Medium
Low
Early identification of technologies, technological trends and technological shocks
Classification within six technologies fields
Technology
Intelligence
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 10
The Technology Radar tracks individual technologies and overall technological trends.
The Technology Radar - A Tool for Technology Intelligence at T-Labs
Informing you about emerging technologies potentially effecting DT„s future business.
Emerging Technologies
Gathering in-depth information on one hot technology field from a research and business perspective.
Technology Trend
Reporting on actual activities on emerging technologies in DT.
Activities
Technology
Intelligence
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 11
The Technology Foresight is based on an international network of scouts
Selection Assessment DisseminationIdentification
Technology
Intelligence
Source: Rohrbeck (2007) Technology Scouting - a case study on the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
Innovation
Strategy
CTOs and CMOs
R&D and
Product Manager
International Scout Network
uses sources in universities & industry
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27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 12
Mobile Internet
Technology
& Market
The Product & Service RadarThe Technology Radar
…is identifying and assessing emerging technologies
…is published by the T-Labs
…is identifying and assessing emerging products and services
…is published by Corporate Product and Innovation
The Product & Service Radar complementswith a scan of start-ups‟ and competitors‟services.
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 13
Target groups create topic-specific (online) diaries over a predefined period of time
Pre-structuring of the diaries, e.g. referring needs/wants, usability requirements, drivers/barriers
Execution of (online) interviews in order to identify latent needs & barriers
Introduction & prioritization of new product/service functions (mini concepts²)
Laddering technique to derive means-end-chains
(Online) Diary research (Online) Interviews
Day in the life visits Insight clinic
Personal, direct interaction along different “insight” stations
Topic-specific design: e.g. product/service confrontation to identify barriers, group discussions to identify latent needs/ means-end-chains
Personal customer visits with cross-functional teams
Direct interaction with customersthrough observation and interviews
“User in the box”: Vivid documentation of ICT-infrastructure & usage patterns
The Consumer Foresight contributes customerneeds and socio-cultural trends at various stages.
Further Reading: Leonard/Rayport 1995; Mrazek et al. 1995, 2 e.g. Durgee et al. 1998
Customer
Foresight
Continuous scanning detects threats and opportunities.
The most promising opportunities are then explored, assessed and planned for implementation.
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 15
Content.
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
1 Introduction
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.1 Technology Radar
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
2.3 Customer Foresight
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1616
Combination of scenario analysis and roadmapping allows linking R&D results with innovation and new business development.
Environmental analysis
Scenario development
21 Roadmap development
Navigation board development
3 4
“The navigation board allows the continuous
tracking of assumptions and the progress towards the favorable scenario”
“The roadmap defines milestones and key
developmentsneeded, to reach the favorable scenario”
“Multiple distinct scenarios reflect any
possible future”
“Identifying the key factors affecting the new business field”
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1717
The Environmental Scanning identifies all relevant factors that influence the new field.
Environmental scanning
Factors that influence our core activities
Influencing factors from neighboring industries
E.g. IT-sector for the telecommunication industry
Areas which today have no connection to our current business,
but might have an important impact in the future
Current Business
Adjacent environment
White spaces
TechnologyIntelligence
Political Foresight
Consumer Foresight
Competitor Foresight
Current business
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1818
The Scenario Analysis provides three to six scenarios that represent any possible future.
Alternative scenario
Unfavorable scenario A Unfavorable scenario B
Description
1 2
3 4
Desired scenario
Description Description
Description
Source: Rohrbeck (2008) “Strategic Roadmapping - Strategic Planning of Innovation at Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.” EIRMA Working Group on Strategic Planning of R&D and New Business.
Multiple distinct
scenarios
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 1919
A Roadmapping approach allows to integrate business scenarios with internal R&D results.
20122007 Timeline
Function J
Own functional building blocks Needed functionalities
Demand
Products
Aspect 1
Aspect 2
Platform 1
Platform 3
Aspect 3
R&Dresults
Domain 2
Platform 2
Domain 1
Domain 3
Domain 4
Domain 5
Function A
Building block ABuilding block C
Building block B
Building block DBuilding block E
Building block G
Building block FBuilding block H
Building block IBuilding block J
Building block LBuilding block K
Building block M
Function BFunction C
Function D Function FFunction E Function G
Function H
Function I
Current demandTomorrow‟s demand
Current demandTomorrow‟s demand
Current demandTomorrow‟s demandWhere do we want to go?
Which relevant technologies and capabilities do we control for competitive differentiation?
Which additional ones do we need?
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 2020
A Navigation Board provides a management view on the progress and proposes interventions.
Need for action Monitor closely as planned
Indicator Current Status Needed status Proposed intervention
Overall Status
Key development A
Key development C 6 >3
Key development B
Key development D
1 <3
Key development E 5 <3
Intervention possibility 1 Intervention possibility 2
Intervention possibility 1 Intervention possibility 2
Intervention possibility 1 Intervention possibility 2
Intervention possibility 1 Intervention possibility 2
Intervention possibility 1 Intervention possibility 2
Comment 1 Comment 2
Which external and internal developments do we need to succeed in the new
business?(Both internal and external)
What should we do, if developments are not
moving in the right direction!
Using scenario analysis with roadmapping is a strong way to explore and plan the future.
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 22
Content.
2 Continuous Strategic Foresight
1 Introduction
3 Roadmapping in innovation and R&D
2.2 Product and Service Radar
2.1 Technology Radar
3.1 Methodology
4 Conclusion
2.3 Customer Foresight
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 23
After three years of foresight experience in the T-Labs we would like to share with you four lessons learned.
A successful
Strategic Foresightactivity…
is based on a deep understanding of the need of the decision maker
engages many internal and external partners
has a strong tool that enables effective collaboration
uses a balanced mix of qualitative and quantitative methods
Four lessons learned from T-Labs
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 24
Thank you for your interest.
http://futureorientation.net
Conference on Strategic Foresight
René RohrbeckDeutsche Telekom LaboratoriesErnst-Reuter-Platz 7, 10587 Berlin+49 30 8353 58536 (Tel)[email protected]
Personal contact
http://rene-rohrbeck.de
Thank you very much for your interest!.René Rohrbeck, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories
27.05.2008Lecture 1 the role of strategic foresight and roadmapping in R&D.ppt 26
Further Reading.
Technology Radar
Technology Scouting
Corporate Foresight
Rohrbeck, R., J. Heuer, and H.M. Arnold. (2006) "The Technology Radar – an Instrument of Technology Intelligence and Innovation Strategy" The 3rd IEEE International Conference on Management of Innovation and Technology: Singapore, pp. 978-983Paper Presentation
Rohrbeck, R. (2007) "Technology Scouting - a case study on theDeutsche Telekom Laboratories" ISPIM-Asia Conference: New Delhi, India.Paper Presentation
Rohrbeck, R. 2010. Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Heidelberg and New York: Physica-Verlag, Springer.