Strategic Territorial Foresight

WORKING PAPER

PLACES’ STRATEGIC FORESIGHT A LOOK AT THE FUTURE OF THE LISBON METROPOLITAN AREA

DPP DPP - Direcção de Serviços de Prospectiva

José M. Félix Ribeiro1 - DPP2

September 2004

1 With the collaboration of Paulo de Carvalho ([email protected]) and António

Alvarenga ([email protected]).

2 Department of Foresight and Planning (Portuguese Ministry for Towns, Local

Administration, Housing and Regional Development) (www.dpp.pt).

2

3

DPP’S APPROACH TO PLACES’3 STRATEGIC FORESIGHT

Places face a multitude of challenges regarding its competitiveness and attractivity. This

paper presents DPP’s process of analysing places’ past structure, identifying the

pre-determined elements and key uncertainties they face and anticipating possible

evolutions. The method also includes a final part dedicated to strategy (not developped

here).

DPP’s approach implies the answer to the following questions:

???? Previous question: Who are we (“the place”) and how did we get here?

???? Question 1: How can we understand what has happened in our environment?

???? Question 2: Looking ahead, what can happen in our environment? Could it be very

different from the past?

???? Question 3: What are the main challenges that we might face in the future?

???? Question 4: Given those challenges, what path(s) should we choose in the future?

???? Question 5: What actions can we implement, in an articulated way, to follow that path

(starting from the place in which we are at the present)?

Answers to these questions

To the “previous question” (Who are we and how did we get here?) we answer with the

analysis of the recent local dynamics (part 1).

To question 1 (How can we understand what has happened in our environment?) we

answer with (part 2; points 2.1. and 2.2.):

3 “Place” as a geographic area with characteristics that make it suitable for a coherent foresight

exercise and operative for strategy implementation. It can be a region, a set or regions, a city, a city

and its neighbourhood, a nation, etc. (i.e., “place” in the sense used by Philip Kotler, Donald H. Haider

and Irving Rein in “Marketing Places – Attracting Investment, Industry, and Tourism to Cities, States, and

Nations”, The Free Press, New York, 1993).

CONTENTS

DPP’S Approach to Places’

Strategic Foresight, p.3.

Part 1: Assessing Recent

Dynamics of the Place, p.5.

Part 2: Designing a Strategic

Foresight Process, p.16.

Final Remark, p.37.

Annex A: Related Works

Published by DPP’s Foresight

Team, p.38.

About the Team, p.40.

For More Information, p.41.

4

·The observation of the main events of the recent past that occurred in the

environment, defining the main trends that allow an integrated analysis of the multiple

events.

·The identification of the emergent patterns, i.e. small groups of events that point out

to different or even opposite directions although they are still not strong enough to be

classified as a new trend or a possible rupture with an existing trend.

·An attempt to conceive a structure that helps to understand the forces shaping our

environment.

To question 2 (Looking at the future, what can happen in our environment? Will it be very

different from the past?) we answer with the identification of pre-determined elements (i.e.

the projection into the future or the rupture of past trends in the horizon of the scenario

planning exercise) and the choice of crucial uncertainties and their possible resolutions

(part 2; section 2.3.). Pre-determined elements and the ways uncertainties are “solved”

constitute the point of departure for constructing environment scenarios.

To answer question 3 (What are the main challenges that we might face in the future?) we

start with a confrontation between today’s characteristics of the place and

pre-determined elements of the future (with a dynamic SWOT analysis as a tool). We then

confront these characteristics with more contrasting scenarios (comparing with the present

situation) aiming to identify where might the site search for a supplement of “robustness” in

order to face the most contrasted situations (this topic is not explored in this paper).

To question 4 (Given those challenges, what path(s) should we choose in the future?) we

answer by choosing one of the four possible evolutions for the place (this topic is not

explored in this paper):

Growth consolidation.

Stop the decline.

Follow-up of an on-going transformation.

Change of the transformation dynamics.

To question 5 (What actions can we implement, in an articulated way, to follow that path -

starting from the place in which we presently are?) we answer with an action plan (again,

this is not explored in this paper).

5

PART 1: ASSESSING RECENT DYNAMICS OF THE PLACE

This part starts by presenting a very simplified framework for assessing the place dynamics

(sections 1.1. and 1.2.). Then, at section 1.3., we apply it to three cases situated in the

Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA).

1.1. Selecting the Key Variables

An assessment of the recent evolution of a place – we call it Place Diagnostics – is much

more than a description of its positive and negative points. In fact, for us, it is essentially a

process of understanding the existing mechanisms and characteristics of the place (we

should consider a long time horizon - e.g. a decade).

The understanding of the dynamics starts with the selection of the variables considered as

more important for the description of the place evolution.

At this simplified approach we have chosen two Key Variables (as they are relatively

independent) – Activities and Population -, and one Dependent Variable – Space

Consumption. We will now try and present their inter-relations.

The Activities of a place can be divided into three main groups (see figure 1):

6

Figure 1: Place Dynamics – a simplified approach

Activities that represent what the place offers to its external environment (regional,

national and/or international) (we call them “Functions” of the place).

Activities that correspond to the supply of goods and services to the resident

population. The nature of this type of activities depends, of course, on the dimension

and level of prosperity of the place’s population. We call them “Derivative Activities”.

Activities of land infrastructuring, namely building construction works oriented for

residential and commercial purposes.

The building construction activity is crucial not only for the population it attracts (through

new created jobs) but also as a consequence of its influence on urban land rent (with its

value included in the price of the land). We call this last process “land dynamics”, which

also includes land authority intervention and management.

Moreover, the link between a place’s population and its activities can vary significantly. For

instance, in an extreme situation, the place might work only as a dormitory for people that

work in activities belonging to other places.

Building Construction

Activities

Functions of the

Place

Derivative Activities

Employment & Salaries Dynamics

Population Dynamics

Land Dynamics “Space

Consumption”

7

From another perspective, space consumption is a variable that results from the interaction

between activities (through land dynamics) and population dynamics, mediated by the

intervention of the authorities that control space usage.

In this perspective, and taking into consideration the chosen variables, place evolution can

be characterized essentially by its capacity to attract activities and people as well as by its

space consumption pattern.

But what are the factors that make a place attractive to activities and population? Figure 2

illustrates our view on this subject:

Figure 2: Place Attractivity Factors

Here are some of the most important general activity attraction factors:

Extension and diversity of the existing pool of qualified human resources.

Quality of the accessibilities to:

Activities Attraction

DedicatedInfrastructures

Communications&

Digitalisation

Taxes and Social Security Contributions

LabourMarket

Flexibility

HR’sPool

Logistics &

Accessibilities

Network of Firms

Suppliers

PropertyPrices

Mobility

EmploymentDynamics

EnvironmentHousingPrices

Population Attraction


“SpaceConsumption”

BasicServices

Universities

InfrastructuralServices

Activities Attraction

DedicatedInfrastructures

Communications&

Digitalisation

Taxes and Social Security Contributions

LabourMarket

Flexibility

HR’sPool

Logistics &

Accessibilities

Network of Firms

Suppliers

PropertyPrices

Mobility

EmploymentDynamics

EnvironmentHousingPrices



“SpaceConsumption”

BasicServices

Universities

InfrastructuralServices

8

o The place.

o The region where the place is located.

o The most prosperous areas of the place’s country.

o International markets (both near and distant).

Quality of the telecommunication and digital services network available to the

components that choose the place.

Quality of the existing infra-structural services, namely land, and building of factories,

warehouses and offices prices.

Existing diversity of activities that can work as suppliers of other activities, namely those

that define place “Functions” (see figure 1).

Besides these factors of local/regional nature there are obviously others also linked to the

country (and/or the macro-region) where the place is located. Tax level and labour market

flexibility are two examples of these factors.

In terms of population attraction to the place we can distinguish four major factors:

Employment and salaries dynamics of the place and its region.

Quality of basic services (namely education, healthcare and security).

Environmental (e.g. urban water cycle management, waste treatment, availability of

green areas) and amenities (e.g. scenery, sport and leisure infrastructures, leisure

services) quality.

House prices, which works as a differentiator of the social classes that search the place

and, at the same time, it acts as a social exclusion force.

Before proceeding with the understanding of recent place dynamics, we must identify the

local authorities intervention power – especially Municipalities – over the place’s attraction

factors and describe their financial resources availability. Figure 3 illustrates this question:

9

Figure 3: Municipalities and Place Attractivity Factors

As shown in the figure, municipalities’ power and actions are felt through, basically:

Land use and availability of land for building construction.

Building of dedicated infrastructures (e.g. industrial and logistic areas, C&T parks).

Mobility conditions in the place and its position in the national/regional network.

Supply of environmental services and amenities.

Basic services offered to the resident population.

Central Administration

Regulations Investment

Transfers

InvestmentEnvironment

LandOffer

Control

Amenities

Personnel

Expenditures

Population

Municipalities

SocialHousing

SocialAction

Activities

Dedicated Infrastructures

Revenues

NormsStandards

External Accessibilities

Communications Digitalisation

BasicServices

ResidentialConstruction

InternalMobility



Transfers


LandOffer

Control

Amenities

Personnel

Expenditures

Population

Municipalities

SocialHousing

SocialAction

Activities


Revenues

NormsStandards



BasicServices


InternalMobility



Transfers


LandOffer

Control

Amenities

Personnel

Expenditures

Population

Municipalities

SocialHousing

SocialAction

Activities


Revenues

NormsStandards



BasicServices


InternalMobility

10

Provision of social housing (social integration factor).

In order to have an intervention in all these areas, Municipalities need their own revenues

and, eventually, financial transfers from the Central Administration. The way Municipalities

get their own revenues is crucial to the definition of the way Municipalities influence space

consumption (a key variable).

In fact, if Municipalities own revenues result from real estate taxation and/or from taxes on

car circulation, there is na impulse to accelerate building construction and not to reduce

the intensity of car utilization. This leads necessarily to an intense space consumption that

implies substantial future financial needs for internal mobility investment (due to the social

costs of traffic jams). All this can deteriorate, in the medium term, the attraction factors of

activities included in the centre of the place’s “Functions”.

1.2. Specific Functions and Attractivity Factors

The Place Diagnostics will be more complete with a more detailed assessment of place’s

“Functions” and their specific activity attraction factors. With this objective, we identified a

set of different functions that might characterize the places:

Industrial/Logistics – place characterized (in the national economy/international

market) by at least one industry and/or by the exploitation of its geographical position

(in terms of the networks of goods transportation and people mobility) for the exercise

of logistical functions (storage, distribution, etc.).

Tertiary/Informatics/Media – place characterized by the existence of business services,

telecommunication services and activities linked to the informatization of the society

as well as the production/distribution of information/entertainment content.

Tourism/Senior Citizen Living – place characterized by the existence of tourism related

services (relying on the existence of special landscape and amenities resources)

possibly coordinated with other leisure services; moreover, the growing trend for older

people from more developed countries to search permanent residence places in

areas with better climate and less traffic creates an opportunity for some of the areas

with a touristic vocation to be considered as senior citizen living potential destinations.

Residence/Merit – place characterized by the existence of activities linked to the

simultaneous production of “merit goods” (e.g. universities, health, culture); places

11

where good urban characteristics and amenities resources also exist becoming

particularly attractive to prosperous and demanding social classes.

Residence/Dormitory – place characterized by the absence of “Functions” beyond

residence to people working in activities that characterize other places (located not

very far away); this means that almost all activities on these places are Derivative, i.e.

based on services to the resident population.

Naturally, each of the described place specific “Functions” implies different attractivity

factors that we should understand in order to reach a clearer view of recent place

dynamics. Table 1 presents some of these factors:

Table 1: Different Attractivity Factors of Different Place Specific “Functions”

INDUSTRIAL / LOGISTICS

(metropolitan ring; heavy industry platform; exports-cluster; etc.)

Accessibility and position in terms of transport networks.

Availability of space for infrastructures.

Land cost.

Availability of industrial workforce.

Quality of infrastructure services: electricity and water.

TERTIARY / INFORMATICS / MEDIA

Pool of qualified human resources (diversified with an informatics focus).

Telecommunications quality and digitalisation intensity.

Quality of infrastructure services: electricity.

Place attractivity for demanding people.

TOURISM/SENIOR CITIZEN LIVING

Availability of land for extensive use.

Environment and amenities quality.

Internal mobility and accessibility from the exterior of the place.

Health, culture and entertainment services offer.

Communications / Digitalisation.

RESIDENCE/”MERIT”

Availability of land for intensive use.

House prices.

Environment and amenities quality.

Internal mobility.

Regional accessibility.

Offer of university and health services.

12

1.3. Recent Dynamics

This section aims to understand the most recent place dynamics. Taking into consideration

the chosen variables, we have considered three standard territorial dynamics:

Sustained Growth – if the interaction between population, activities dynamics and

municipalities intervention results in stronger territorial competitivity in terms of the

functions that characterized the place in the beginning of the period;

Decline – if the interaction between population, activities dynamics and municipalities

intervention results in a significant weakening process of the functions that

characterized the place in the beginning of the period;

Transformation – if the place, facing the impossibility of following its traditional

“Functions” and/or taking advantage of new opportunities, begins a process of

changing its “Functions” (with an uncertain result).

Boxes 1, 2 and 3 present three examples of the application of this method to sectors of the

LMA:

13

Box 1: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Industrial Platform to Residence/Dormitory

(case 1)

In this case, we have a place that:

Was a site of peripheral industrial poles of an urban metropolis.

Suffered from the closing of its industrial companies (leaving both a scenario of

environment degradation and an urban scene typical of poor working areas).

Is situated near a big city and in a riverside area with an amenities potential yet

unexplored.

The option of transforming the place into a residence/dormitory area was the easiest one

after the decline of the traditional industrial functions. However, the urban implications of

this kind of functions associated with the characteristics of a typical industrial area hinder a

future exploitation of the place’s landscape and amenities potentialities. This exploitation

could attract more prosperous population, which could generate the demand for

proximity services, creating jobs and helping the integration of social minorities.

Figure 4: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Industrial Platform to

Residence/Dormitory (case 1)

Low Sophistication of the “Proximity

Services”

Metropolitan Accessibilities Improvement

Attraction of Low Income New

Residents

Weak Activities Dynamics / Low Generation of

Local Employment

CentralAdministration

“Cheap” Land Offer in a

Metropolitan Space

Municipality

Risk of Destruction oftheAmenities

Potential

Decline of Heavy Industries

PoorImage

High Pace inConstruction

Structural Unemployment

EnvironmentalProblems

Industrial Park –Failure in the Attraction of

Activities

Low Sophistication of the “Proximity

Services”

Metropolitan Accessibilities Improvement

Attraction of Low Income New

Residents

Weak Activities Dynamics / Low Generation of

Local Employment


“Cheap” Land Offer in a

Metropolitan Space

Municipality

Risk of Destruction oftheAmenities

Potential

Decline of Heavy Industries

PoorImage

High Pace inConstruction

Structural Unemployment

EnvironmentalProblems

Industrial Park –Failure in the Attraction of

Activities

14

Box 2: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Tourism/Senior Citizen Living to Residence

(case 2)

In this second case, we have a place that:

Had tourism/senior citizen living functions (very concentrated in a certain part of the

place) that coexisted with deregulated urbanization (in a contiguous part).

Saw its beaches more and more polluted, which, associated with mass access (from

inhabitants of the periphery to the tourism area), made the beaches unattractive to

high standard tourism.

Had a large-scale residence building (without any concerns about creating a

coherent image) that transformed the place into a disorganized suburban middle

class area.

Watched the disappearance of its residential top functions and had its touristic

functions seriously menaced (the maintenance of these functions is carried on through

projects like a congress centre and a marina, but the loss of the place’s traditional

characteristics has not been stopped).

Figure 5: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - From Tourism/Senior Citizen Living to Residence (case 2)

IntenseSpa c e

C onsum ption


Urba nC on g estion

Im prov e m ent of M e tro p olitan A c c essibilities

Changeof

Image

Tourism Fun c tions / Potential De cline

Exterior A c c essibilities -

Airport

Building o f De dic a t e d

Infrastruc tures (e.g.C on gress Centre,

G o lf Green)

“Rich”Initial

Im age

Attra c ti on o f Ne w “ Mid d le Class”

Residen ts

High p a c e inC onstru ction

Destruc tion o f the A m e nities O ffer an d

Environ m ent

Release of “Expensive ” Lan d in a M e tro p o litan Are a

Municipality

IntenseSpa c e

C onsum ption


Urba nC on g estion


Changeof

Image



Airport



G o lf Green)

“Rich”Initial

Im age


Residen ts



Environ m ent


Municipality

IntenseSpa c e

C onsum ption


Urba nC on g estion


Changeof

Image



Airport



G o lf Green)

“Rich”Initial

Im age


Residen ts



Environ m ent


Municipality

15

Box 3: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML – The Affirmation of a Tertiary/Informatics/Media Place (case 3)

In this third case, we have a place that:

Explores its integration in the big city area in order to attract headquarters of national

and international companies interested in selling its centre city headquarters and

looking for a pleasant place, close by and with good infrastructures and accessibilities.

Has had its tertiary functions developed with the installation of a university and a C&T

park (which attracts innovative businesses in the software and informatics services

area) as well as new television and audiovisual production studios

Follows a policy of stimulus to house complex median class building, reinforcing

environment quality and amenities resources, with the purpose of giving an image of a

non-overcrowded and agreeable place.

Naturally, a place with these conditions has a tendency to attract both qualified and

unqualified population. A strong majority of the unqualified population works either in the

building construction or in the large proximity services sector (generated by the presence

of prosperous and highly qualified workers). In this context, a social housing policy is an

essential instrument for social integration.

Figure 6: Recent Local Dynamics in the AML - The Affirmation of a

Tertiary/Informatics/Media Place (case 3)

Security & Criminality Reduction

Attractionof

Activities

Attraction of “Middle Class”

Population

Basic Services Offer

Offer of Amenities and Environment

Quality

Social Housing Offer

OfficeParks

AudiovisualStudios

S&TParks

TelecommunicationDigitalisation

High Prices for Residential

Construction

Population Growth with Marginalization

Risks

Need for “Proximity Services”

Generation of Endogenous Employment

Low Social Integration

Generation of Qualified Jobs


Attractionof

Activities


Population



Quality


OfficeParks

AudiovisualStudios

S&TParks



Construction


Risks






Attractionof

Activities


Population



Quality


OfficeParks

AudiovisualStudios

S&TParks



Construction


Risks





16

PART 2: DESIGNING A STRATEGIC FORESIGHT PROCESS

In part 1 we tried to understand the recent dynamics of the places. However, in order to

understand what the strategy of the place for a better positioning in the future must be, we

have to work on its environment (in the three examples presented, the environment is the

LMA).

In order to achieve that, we will explore figure 7 (particularly the four components

mentioned in the figure).

Figure 7: The Strategic Foresight Process4

4 Adapted from John J. Shibley’s “The Learning Action Matrix” (in John J. Shibley/The Portland Learning

Organization: “A Primer on Systems Thinking & Organizational Learning” [currently available at

http://www.systemsprimer.com/writings.htm].

1 Event Observation and Trend “Extraction”

2Understanding

Structures BehindTrends and Events

4

3

Identification of Challenges and

Choice of Path(s) and Actions

Anticipation of Future Structures

and Plausible Scenarios

OBSERVATION UNDERSTANDING ANTECIPATION DECISION

Events

Structu

res

Trends

Challenges

Actions

New Structures


2Understanding


4

3







2Understanding


4

3






Events

Structu

res

Trends

Events

Structu

res

Trends

Challenges

Actions

New Structures

Challenges

Actions

New Structures

17

2.1. Events, Trends and Patterns

As van der Heijden stressed5 , those who work in Foresight and Scenario Planning recognize

the existence of structures behind events. This analysis is based on the assumption that

events do not happen by chance but, on the contrary, they are interconnected through a

structure in which one event leads to another.

Thus, our perception is based on trends and patterns that we recognize in events and we

use as causality cues. These cues can take different forms6:

“Temporal order, events organised on a time line, for example trends over time in

events.

Co-variance, where we see different variables follow similar patterns over time.

Spatial/temporal closeness, if one thing always follows another, we assume a link.

Similarity in form or pattern.”

These cues for event causality are the basis for the second level of knowledge, that of

trends and patterns leading to variable conceptualisation.

Besides this trend identification exercise we should also dedicate our efforts to the process

of finding emergent patterns, i.e. groups of recent events that:

Point into directions not covered by identified trends.

Point into possible change in the direction of identified trends.

In box 4 we present an exemplification of events that characterized LMA’s recent

evolution. We also “extract” trends from these events and start a process of emergent

pattern recognition.

5 See section “Cues for causality” (pp.97-99) of Kees van der Heijden’s “Scenarios: the Art of Strategic

Conversation” (John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1998 – first edition: 1996).

6 Using Kees van der Heijden’s words (ibid., p.99).

18

Box 4: LMA – Observing Events, “Extracting” Trends and Finding Emergent Patterns

Observing Events

Intensive building construction.

Surge of new urban building outside traditional central area.

Surge of degradated and/or abandoned buildings on the traditional city centre.

Slum clearance.

Highway investment.

Shopping Centre and hypermarket opening at peripheral places.

Heavy industry platforms closing (Cabo Ruivo, Barreiro, Seixal, Almada).

VW Auto-Europa installation and development of its industrial park at Palmela7.

New centralities for business in the Lisbon area and neighbouring municipalities (e.g. Oeiras).

Universities and R&D centres displacement from Lisbon.

Development of new leisure zones linked to public investment – EXPO8, Belém Cultural Centre.

“Extracting” Trends

Strong development of tertiary activities as the main job creation sector.

Deindustrialization of heavy traditional industries as well as “soft” industries delocalisation.

Lisbon centre desertification (both in terms of population and business services).

Substantial housing improvement, associated with own house acquisition.

Follow-up of the periurbanization phenomenon (expanded into new municipalities).

Break out of new degradated residential zones leading to ghetization and crime growth.

Concentration of multinational’s headquarters outside Lisbon municipality.

Finding Emergent Patterns

Lisbon as a touristic destination for congresses and other events.

Cultural and artistic diversification.

7 VW Auto-Europa is the largest auto plant in Portugal and constitutes the most important foreign direct

investment ever made in the country (http://www.autoeuropa.pt).

8 Place that inherited and further developed Lisbon’s Expo 98 facilities.

19

2.2. Structures behind Trends and Events

We started by selecting a group of events from which we try and “extract” trends and

patterns.

In a process of increased complexity we then develop the structure(s)9 that (we think)

explain the causalities possible to establish between different trends. They are the third level

of knowledge, assuming that they are capable of explaining events.

Figure 8 presents an attempt to facilitate the job of searching for variables, actors and

interactions that constitute structures10 in the case of territorial areas like LMA.

Figure 8: Looking for a Structure that Helps to Understand Recent Place Dynamics

9 Structures exist as products of our reasoning. As van der Heijden stresses, the plural is used because

“multiple structures may result from different possible interpretations of causal patterns” (Ibid., p.99).

10 Adopting a simplified and operational approach we can define structure as a group of variables,

actors and interactions between actors, selected and organized in a way that will help explaining a

strong majority of the movements of the chosen variables in order to explain the dynamics of the system.

Space of the Activities Most Exposed to International

Competition

Protector and

Investor State

Space of Demographic

Variables

Space of Territory Occupation and Infrastructuring

Variables

Families

Regulator and Tax

Collector State

Space of Non-Transactional

Activities

Space of Families Employment, Revenue and

Saving Variables Space of Economic and Business Environment

Variables

Industrial and

Services Firms

Financial System

Institutions

Space of the Activities Most Exposed to International

Competition

Protector and

Investor State

Space of Demographic

Variables

Space of Territory Occupation and Infrastructuring

Variables

Families

Regulator and Tax

Collector State

Space of Non-Transactional

Activities

Space of Families Employment, Revenue and

Saving Variables Space of Economic and Business Environment

Variables

Industrial and

Services Firms

Financial System

Institutions

20

In the LMA case we tried a very simple approach to its structure. Figure 9 summarizes a

number of processes that characterized LMA in the last decade. Their interaction had a

central role in the definition of LMA’s type of growth. At box 5 we present a very brief

description of these processes.

Box 5: LMA – Understanding the Structure

Demographic evolution characterized by the arrival to the mature age of a very large

post-second world war born generation (with a general achievement of a higher

position in the revenue scale). As this generation was the first to fully (everyone and

during all their lifetime) contribute to the social security system, it made it possible for

this system to generate financial surpluses.

Reinforcement of the tertiarization of the Economy with the development of core

activities intensive in qualifications and competencies. These activities are organized

around financial services, business services, telecommunications/audiovisual,

engineering/consultancy, health services, teaching and training. At the same time, it

was generated a large-scale demand for low qualification activities, namely in

distribution, tourism and personal services.

The previous process was nourished by another one: infrastructural sectors liberalization

and privatisation (telecommunications, television and radio, electricity, gas, highways,

water and environment). Together with a reinforcement of Central Administration

financial capability (availability of EU structural funds), the process provoked a massive

investment in the mentioned sectors and generated new opportunities for capital

markets valorisation of its businesses.

Disinflation, exchange rate stability and budget consolidation allowed a gradual

reduction in the rates of interest, culminating on the inclusion of Portugal into the

group of EU member states that integrated EMU third phase (1999). Interest rate

reduction and privatisations revenues were essential to budget consolidation. It also

facilitated an increase on credit demand by families.

Tertiarization was associated with a double movement in employment: (i) contributed

to a high women activity rate; (ii) promoted the creation of large quantities of job

opportunities for young people. This double movement happened at different

qualification levels, contributing to the augmentation of family revenue and the

creation of social mobility expectations. Tertiarization also had a complementary

effect: withdrawal from young people’s imaginary of the industrial activity.

In a period of strong globalisation, intense external competition and impossibility for

the State to secure cover of industrial infrastructural sectors continuous losses, this

sector lost weight in the economy. At the same time, multinational companies weight

increased, especially in two different types of sectors: (i) the ones with higher growth;

(ii) the ones with stronger contraction. Industry as a whole did not create jobs. On the

contrary, it generated structural unemployment (glossed over partially with

21

anticipated retirements).

Improved family revenue (consequence of a high women activity rate not following

salary improvements) proportionated access to credit (difficult to obtain formerly). This

improvement in the revenue was channelled into housing and durable goods

acquisition, which promoted increasing debt. At the same time, families invested in

longer education for their children.

The increase in the offer of credit to real estate promotion and house acquisition by

families was parallel to a growing supply of construction land. This supply was

promoted by municipalities, which have a substantial part of their revenues associated

to their place building intensity.

Tertiarization (namely its components of increasing business services, financial services,

telecommunications and audiovisual, tourism and the complete transformation of the

large distribution sector) lead to a boom in the office and commercial real estate

sector.

Credit, land, offer of new accessibilities, together with tertiarization dynamics,

generated the conditions for a real estate boom (both in residential construction,

commerce and services buildings). This boom generated a growth of building

construction and public works as well as an intense demand for immigrants to work in

a sector that stopped counting with the arrival to the cities of rural population.

The main infrastructural sectors companies (which have their headquarters in the LMA)

had their growth limited by the economic dimension of Portuguese place and suffered

an intensified competition from new competitors brought by sectorial liberalization

process. In this context, they choose a double strategy: (i) internationalisation of their

operations to emergent economies where there was a demand for their

competencies; (ii) diversification into new areas (especially telecommunications,

content and Internet) where they had no competencies but were considered as

having strong future dynamics. Both movements animated capital markets for a long

expansion period.

The existence of a set of highly remunerated tertiary sector workers and the

multiplication of rapid enrichment opportunities in services and intermediation

activities generated a new group of savers. These savers abandoned bank deposits

and turned massively into capital markets direct or indirect applications (leaving the

banks without one of their safer savings source).

Banks reduced their exposure to industrial sectors credit (partly as a consequence of

these sectors lack of dynamics and investment rentability) concentrating their financial

operations in two areas: (i) real estate (financing real estate promoters and house

buyers); (ii) services infrastructural sectors. These were the two areas where its most

important (in terms of dimension, dynamics and profitability) business clients were

located. And, given their limitation in terms of deposits, they increasingly detained

external financing in order to compete for more profitable business opportunities.

22

Figure 9: A Structure to Understand Recent LMA Dynamics

Family Revenues Increase

Multinational Companies

Banks

Real Estate Promoters

CentralAdmin.

MunicipalitySocial

Security(Surpluses)

SkillsOffer

Economy Tertiarization

Real EstateBoom

UrbanSegment

Expansion

External indebtedness

of the Banking Sector

Disinflation

ImmigrantsAttraction

StructuralFunds

Availability

DepositsEscape

Residence Acquisition

StockExchangeDynamics

LandOffer

Women Activity RateAccessibilities

Offer

InterestRates

InterestRates

BrazilBusiness

Expansion

IndustryInternationalisation

Infrastructural Sectors

Privatisation

CreditOffer

PopulationAgeing

IncentivesOffer

Credit&

Capital



Banks


CentralAdmin.

MunicipalitySocial

Security(Surpluses)

SkillsOffer


Real EstateBoom

UrbanSegment

Expansion



Disinflation


StructuralFunds

Availability

DepositsEscape



LandOffer


Offer

InterestRates

InterestRates

BrazilBusiness

Expansion



Privatisation

CreditOffer

PopulationAgeing

IncentivesOffer

Credit&

Capital



Banks


CentralAdmin.

MunicipalitySocial

Security(Surpluses)

SkillsOffer


Real EstateBoom

UrbanSegment

Expansion



Disinflation


StructuralFunds

Availability

DepositsEscape



LandOffer


Offer

InterestRates

InterestRates

BrazilBusiness

Expansion



Privatisation

CreditOffer

PopulationAgeing

IncentivesOffer

Credit&

Capital

23

2.3. Future(s) Anticipation

After the diagnostic phase we enter the foresight phase with the objective of anticipating

challenges, opportunities and transformations that the place might face in the future as a

consequence of processes that are not under its control (but that might affect it at the

level of its functions, populations, prosperity and cohesion).

Taking into consideration the structure(s) conceived and looking at the future we can

consider two types of elements:

Pre-determined elements, based on a structure supposedly very stable in the time

horizon of the scenario planning exercise;

Uncertain elements that result from the possibility of explaining the events in different

ways and/or the existence of more than one possible structure in the base of events

(and the absence of a way of deciding which of the possible structures will prevail in

the future).

A scenario is, after all, a representation of how the future might be taking as point of

departure the presence of pre-determined elements and different ways of solving

uncertain elements.

Structural uncertainties11 are the scenarios drivers. They can be “solved” in different ways

and different “resolutions” can be combined differently (originating a combinatory). In

order to avoid a combinatory with too many elements we usually try to reduce the number

of scenario drivers.

11 Van der Heijden (Ibid., p.84) identifies structural uncertainties “where we are looking at the possibility

of an event which is unique enough not to provide us with an indication of likelihood. The possibility of

the event presents itself by means of a cause/effect chain of reasoning, but we have no evidence for

judging how likely it could be.”

24

Recovering LMA’s exercise, at this point we tried to clarify four main points about LMA’s

future(s):

Identification of pre-determined elements, i.e. anticipation of changes in the general

attractivity and competitiveness factors of the place (in a given time horizon) resulting

from heavy trends in the international environment (section 2.3.1.). This trend

identification must result from the identification o a restrict number of forces exerting

their power over economies and societies of the place’s world region.

Identification of the structural uncertainties at the place’s regional (LMA region) and

national (Portugal) levels that might affect in a decisive way activities that specify

LMA’s functions, people that LMA might attract and LMA’s position in terms of space

availability (section 2.3.2.). This identification must be done according to the diagram

that presents the processes characterizing the LMA12.

Formulation of hypothesis about the way of “solving” structural uncertainties and their

articulation with the different ways the region and/or the country might react to pre-

determined elements (section 2.3.3.). The purpose is to build alternative environment

scenarios.

Construction of alternative scenarios (exploring retained hypothesis combinatory

(section 2.3.4.)).

12 See figure 9.

25

2.3.1. Identifying the Pre-Determined Elements

Pre-determined elements identification13 corresponds to heavy trends spotting. Figure 10

shows a group of topics that should be considered while searching for those trends

(obviously, this does not mean that in all foresight exercises we will find heavy trends in all

these groups).

Figure 10: Key Themes for Trend Identification

In the case of place foresight we must pay special attention to the areas that are most

important to the place future attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity.

13 In a given time horizon.

Technology & Innovation

ActivitiesDynamics

EnergySolutionsKnowledge

& Skills

ManagementModels

Institutions

Work & Employment Values &

Lifestyles

Demography & Family Structures

Environment & Natural Resources

Technology & Innovation

ActivitiesDynamics

EnergySolutionsKnowledge

& Skills

ManagementModels

Institutions

Work & Employment Values &

Lifestyles

Demography & Family Structures

Environment & Natural Resources

26

In the LMA exercise we have found seven heavy trends that we think will strongly influence

LMA’s attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity (box 6).

Box 6: Heavy Trends Faced by LMA Related to Attractivity, Competitiveness and Prosperity

Factors

Being Global

Development of business services for global companies, exploring opportunities

promoted by cyberspace (e.g. call centres and other back office functions).

Special attention to the participation of local businesses, universities and research

centres in solid world networks as well as attempts to attract foreign investment,

entrepreneurs and talents.

Special attention to infrastructural investments that reinforce the connection with

global broadband communication networks, air and maritime transport of goods. The

main objective is to be closer to the regions where innovation is generated and/or

where faster growth is taking place.

Being Digital

Availability of the main e-business infrastructures: safe supply of quality electricity and

local and international broadband telecommunications.

Strong organization of the goods and services transaction space. This organizational

process must be based in technologies focused on the exploration of e-business

possibilities (namely in the services sector).

Organization of large-scale Internet activities and local residents connection to the

web. Generalization of telematics use in the supply of more deterritorialized services,

making the citizens more involved in town management.

Reorganization of interactive and network technologies around teaching and learning

systems.

Large offer (especially to the young) of reconversion opportunities centred in

informatics, communications and audiovisual.

Being Green

Reduction (through technological and societal innovation) of fossil energy

consumption (and pollution) in urban mobility, habitat and tertiary sector, namely by

the use of new collective systems of individual transport complemented by a massive

diffusion of new solar energy solutions.

Promotion of forestations and creation of green areas in cities – proportional with the

emissions of greenhouse effect gases.

Protection of the best agricultural lands near large cities, keeping an encircle of food

supply.

27

Priority to hydric resources protection (namely of those that supply cities water supply),

stopping its reduction and contamination.

Being Flexible

Reorganization of the individual’s participation in the labour market (according to

different periods of their active life) and an extension of this participation (compatible

with quality of life).

Reform of pension systems. In the medium term this reform must enable a better

management of the economic and social impacts of the ageing demographic

dynamics as well as securing the best valuation opportunities for active population

compulsory savings.

Organization of the market for individual risk covering and managing the life cycle

consumption/saving fluxes in an institutional way that promotes investment and

innovation without compromising individual security.

Increase of real estate instruments liquidity, profoundness and diversity with the

objective of answering the family’s life cycle different needs in housing and

proportionating greater mobility.

Being Light

Development of weightless activities (or with weight measured in grams) with low

direct consumption of fossil energies (e.g. business services, content production,

high-tech industries).

Maximum reduction in the capital intensity of mobility, communication and cities’

energy supply solutions, allowing the bulk of investment to be directed into

applications that increase productivity and generate employment.

Being Dense in Value

Focusing city functions more clearly on services and high value added industry sectors.

Availability of a dynamic financial services sector pressing into better capital valuation

(helping its mobility) that knows how to finance immaterial capital acquisition

(increasingly important to value creation).

Being Competent and Innovative

Increasing participation on knowledge and innovation processes by the excellence

and internationalisation of universities and research institutions.

Availability of a large entertainment sector and intense artistic and cultural creation,

attracting talents and “users”.

Offer of quality health and personal care services, development of competencies in

health and rehabilitation related industries and services, transforming ageing

phenomenon in a growth opportunity.

28

2.3.2. Main Structural Uncertainties: the LMA Case

We have identified a set of predetermined general elements that will frame LMA’s future

attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity.

To those general elements we must add more country specific ones:

Portugal will suffer a strong budget constraint due to ageing pressure over current

spending and internal transfers.

Portugal will get less monetary transfers from the EU (which has an important impact

on public investment and might trigger clear options on public investment).

Portugal will suffer a profound transformation of its financial sector due to growing

integration at European level, changing family preferences (in favour of financial

assets) and a possible bank crisis.

In this context, we will now try and identify LMA’s structural uncertainties (box 7).

Box 7: Defining LMA’s Structural Uncertainties

In this case, we will approach two types of structural uncertainties:

Uncertainties about the way Portugal and LMA will face predetermined elements

related to future place attractivity, competitiveness and prosperity.

Uncertainties about the continuity of key elements from the structure based on recent

LMA’s dynamics (figure 9).

In the first case, we must choose key characteristics (for a place to be competitive and

attractive in the long run) that are harder to get at in the LMA (due to ideological dogmas

or special economic interests or opposing social forces) and, preferably, that are related

with elements of the previous structure. We choose:

Being Flexible – existence or absence of organizing labour market integration, human

capital accumulation and family savings in a way more compatible with

demographic tendencies.

Being Digital – priority given to communication/audiovisual networks, families digital

connection and digital organization of activities and place (versus absolute priority to

29

investment in large mobility infrastructures).

Being Green – existence or absence of a framework that helps solving cities traffic

problems and protecting LMA’s agro and landscape potential.

We should look for the second type of structural uncertainties in the previous structure key

elements that might change in the long run. We choose three main uncertainties:

Evolution of the real estate market – different forms of organizing real estate market

and ways of cutting back bank sector dependency on land rent (potential source of

speculation and financial crisis cycles).

Options on internationalisation infrastructures – different options for the next decade

large internationalisation infrastructures in Portugal (e.g. new Lisbon airport, high speed

rail connection to Madrid, containers ports) and North-South axis organization (among

other things, these options will conditionate LMA’s spatial development).

Evolution of infrastructural sectors – implications of the next decade choice between

centralization and competition in infrastructural sectors (electricity,

telecommunications and urban transportation). This choice will influence places

attractivity.

Figure 11 presents a set of interactions between four pre-determined elements...

Globalisation in an environment of technological change.

Ageing.

Financial system transformation.

External Transfers Reduction.

... and a group of structural uncertainties resulting from “Being Flexible” decomposition in

four vectors and consideration of “Being Digital” and “Being Green”:

Social protection systems reform.

Labour market flexibilization.

Incentives to human capital accumulation.

Competition in the offer of merit goods.

Priority to digital communication and investment in connectivity.

Protection and valuation of agro and landscape potential.

It also takes into consideration three other structural uncertainties (specific to Portugal):

30

Liberalization and innovation in infrastructural sectors.

Type of internationalisation infrastructures.

Real estate market diversification.

These last uncertainties are crucial for future activities and space occupation patterns.

We formulated two evolution hypotheses for each uncertainty, keeping control over the

number of configurations.

Figure 11: A Structure to Think About LMA’s Future

On-going Globalisation

Crisis and/or Transformation

of the Financial System

Reduction of External Transfers

Budget Strictness

Population Ageing

Families Income and Patrimony

immigrant Integration

Employment Volume and Type

Financial Assets Acquisition

Industrial Investment Attraction

Public Investment Level

Tertiary Internationalisation

Urban Construction Pace and

Localization

Liberalization and Innovation in Infrastructural

Sectors

Fiscal Competition Capacity

Protection of Agro and Environment

Potentialities

Digital Investment Internationalisation Infrastructures

Incentives to Human Capital Accumulation

Labour Market Flexibilization

Reform of the Social Protection

Systems

Competition on the offer of “merit”

goods

Diversification of the Real Estate

Market

On-going Globalisation

Crisis and/or Transformation

of the Financial System

Reduction of External Transfers

Budget Strictness

Population Ageing

Families Income and Patrimony

immigrant Integration

Employment Volume and Type

Financial Assets Acquisition

Industrial Investment Attraction

Public Investment Level

Tertiary Internationalisation

Urban Construction Pace and

Localization

Liberalization and Innovation in Infrastructural

Sectors

Fiscal Competition Capacity

Protection of Agro and Environment

Potentialities

Digital Investment Internationalisation Infrastructures

Incentives to Human Capital Accumulation

Labour Market Flexibilization

Reform of the Social Protection

Systems

Competition on the offer of “merit”

goods

Diversification of the Real Estate

Market

31

2.3.3. Ways to Solve the Structural Uncertainties

Box 8 describes the two contrasted hypothesis that we have considered for LMA’s exercise

structural uncertainties (the time horizon is 2015):

Box 8: Possible Solutions for Structural Uncertainties

Social Flexibility

Hypothesis A – labour market reforms promoting the diversity of life-long labour market

insertion as well as human capital accumulation; pension system reform leading to the

creation of a mix (public and private) system with a strong capitalization pillar.

Hypothesis B – monolithic labour market and maintenance of a pension system based

in a public pillar with state managed subsidiary capitalization as well as

complementary capitalization for the most affluent sectors.

Liberalization and Innovation in Infrastructural Sectors

Hypothesis A – Liberalized Infrastructural sectors (electricity, urban transports and

telecommunications/audiovisual), strongly competitive and innovative. State

regulation secures quality.

Hypothesis B – Infrastructural sectors (electricity, urban transports and

audiovisual/audiovisual) controlled by today’s dominant companies (or their

“successors”) with low competition and innovation.

Digital Investment

Hypothesis A – Priority (in public investment as well as in incentives to private

investment) to digital organization (comparing with massive mobility investments).

Hypothesis B – Priority to public and private investment in urban mobility.

Real Estate Market Diversification

Hypothesis A – Diverse real estate market (offer of housing types adapted to different

family life cycle needs and trends concerning its dimension; incentives to house

change; strong liquidity).

32

Hypothesis B – Labour market with low diversification, only taking into account income

differences (strong impulse for temporary gaps between offer and solvent demand).

Internationalisation infrastructures

Hypothesis A – Internationalisation infrastructures valuing LMA’s South (new airport near

Rio Frio and Lisbon-Madrid high speed train passing trough LMA’s South). North-South

axis not passing through Lisbon (building of a new bridge at the North of Vila Franca

de Xira).

Hypothesis B – Internationalisation infrastructures valuating LMA’s North (new airport at

Ota and Lisboa-Madrid high speed train passing North of the Tagus river). North-South

axis passing through Lisbon (building of a new bridge over the Tagus estuary).

Protection of Agro and Landscape Potential

Hypothesis A – Combination of normative mechanisms of market incentives with forms

of municipal financing leading to LMA’s agro and environmental valuable areas

conservation.

Hypothesis B – Normative mechanisms application perverted by municipal financing

rules and landowners’ non-acceptance of losses.

2.3.4. From Uncertainties Resolution to Scenarios

Each scenario “skeleton” is a coherent combination of possible solutiond for structural

uncertainties (one “solution” for each uncertainty). Here, we develop three “skeletons” and

their scenarios but other solutions remain available for possible future exploration. The three

mentioned combinations are:

The extreme combinations, i.e. those with either all hypotheses A or all hypotheses B.

One of the middle combinations, i.e. one that includes some A’s and some B’s.

Table 2 identifies these combinations:

33

Table 2: Chosen Combinations of Possible Solutions for Structural Uncertainties

After choosing the combinations we explore the interactions between its elements. All

scenarios must indicate:

Which activities are more likely to develop in the LMA (according to the way certain

general and specific14 uncertainties15 are “solved” in the scenario).

What space occupation pattern16 will be more likely to appear.

Boxes 9, 10 and 11 present three scenarios for 2015 LMA:

14 Specific to certain activities.

15 Linked to attractivity conditions.

16 Intensity and type of urbanization, localization of different types of activities, natural and

environmental resources valuation, etc..

STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTIES

HYPOTHESES A HYPOTHESES B

Social Flexibility Flexibility Rigidity

Liberalization of

infrastructural sectors

Competition and Innovation Competition between giants

Digital Investment Investment in digitalisation Heavy investment in mobility

Real Estate Market

Diversification

Diversification and liquidity Monolithic with regular crisis

Internationalisation

Infrastructures

Valorisation of LMA’s South Valorisation of LMA’s North

Protection and Valuation of

Environment Potential

“Green” and market Norms and evasions

Scenario 1Scenario 2

Scenario 3

34

Box 9: Scenario 1 – Complete Change

Portugal embarked in several significant reforms that increased social flexibility allowing

cost reduction for companies without drastic augmentation of citizens’ instability.

Today, the real estate market is only available for large players. It is much more diversified

in terms of product adaptability to different types of families and their life cycle needs.

Housing and urban quality has improved and the market has more liquidity. LMA’s

landscape richness was maintained by the creation of a trade exchange for land in

ecological areas as well as by the change of municipalities own revenues (from town

property taxes to a parcel of the local VAT).

Portugal liberalized the universities system, promoting Portuguese universities integration in

large Anglo-Saxon university conglomerates.

It also put forward infrastructural sectors liberalization, reducing these services supply costs

and multiplying innovative business actors (both in terms of business models and activities).

These evolutions, particularly, lead to an intense investment in telecommunication/Internet

with a large diffusion of broadband services to businesses and families.

Portugal opted for one large investment in internationalisation transport infrastructures: a

new international airport. This airport works 24 hours a day and has capacity to receive

simultaneously four of the largest long-range planes (A�480). However, it still has expansion

capacity. This airport is located South of Tagus river, articulated with the only high-speed

train line in Portugal (Lisbon-Badajoz-Madrid).

Structural reforms, new airport, telecommunications and Internet diffusion, high quality

housing availability, amenities and tourism infrastructures (golf, marinas and casinos):

Attracted a large number of European and American companies that installed in the

LMA their back office, training centres, R&D and/or advanced production units. They

largely beneficiated from a strong connection between Portuguese universities and

some of the best world universities. Pharmacy/health and communications/multimedia

sectors developed very quickly.

Had a large contribution to the transformation of the South of Tagus area into a high

profile touristic zone (with special focus on residential tourism).

35

Box 10: Scenario 2 - A Real Estate Problem

Portugal embarked in several significant reforms that increased social flexibility, allowing

cost reduction for companies without drastic augmentation of citizens’ instability.

It also took forward infrastructural sectors liberalization, reducing these services supply costs

and multiplying innovative business actors (both in terms of business models and activities).

These evolutions, particularly, lead to an intense investment in telecommunication/Internet

with a large diffusion of broadband services to businesses and families.

Portugal authorized foreign universities installation. Today, these universities fully compete

with national one (both private and public).

However, it was impossible to change the real estate sector functioning in terms of:

The required dimension of the players17.

The articulation between house savings and private pension savings.

Municipalities’ own revenues.

Real estate/tourism remained the sectors with higher growth rates. However, they suffered

periodical tertiary and housing overcapacity crisis.

Portugal maintained its option for a new Iberian “regional airport” at Ota and the priority

for the network of high-speed train lines.

Structural reforms, telecommunications quality, Internet diffusion and existing amenities

attracted a number of European and American companies that installed in the LMA their

back office, training centres as well as some R&D and/or advanced production units. They

beneficiated from the new engineering colleges.

Irregular urban growth continued and spread throughout the West and parts of Ribatejo

(territory that gained value following the new airport construction at the North of Lisbon

and its increased proximity to the capital brought by the coordination between the new

airport and the high-speed train network).

The littoral North of Roca cape and the Alentejo littoral were subject to enormous building

pressure, which was impossible to control. This pressure lead into landscape destruction

phenomena similar to those of Algarve some decades ago.

17 Namely of those that are responsible for new urban areas promotion and large urban requalification

operations.

36

Box 11: Scenario 3 - Resistance to Change

Portugal was unable to reach an internal consensus leading to significant structural reforms.

Focus on maintaining national champions with external projection stopped liberalisation

processes that could hinder those companies’ market share and rentability. Meanwhile,

these companies were integrated in European groups.

Portuguese university system remained closed to foreign universities but the country paid

special attention to the attraction of multinationals R&D and design centres.

However, it was impossible to change the real estate sector functioning in terms of:

The required dimension of the players18.

The articulation between house savings and private pension savings.

Municipalities’ own revenues.

Real estate/tourism remained the sectors with higher growth rates. However, they suffered

periodical tertiary and housing overcapacity crisis.

Portugal maintained its option for a new Iberian “regional airport” at Ota and the priority

for the network of high-speed train lines.

Irregular urban growth continued and spread throughout the West and parts of Ribatejo

(territory that gained value following the new airport construction at the North of Lisbon

and its increased proximity to the capital brought by the coordination between the new

airport and the high-speed train network).

The littoral North of Roca cape and the Alentejo littoral were subject to enormous building

pressure, which was impossible to control. This pressure lead into landscape destruction

phenomena similar to those of Algarve some decades ago.

Some European and American companies installed, in the LMA, back office and training

facilities. These facilities are situated in urban poles where European communication

companies organized advanced communication “islands”.

18 Namely of those that are responsible for new urban areas promotion and large urban requalification

operations.

37

Final Remark

This text started by identifying the most important trends for the future attractivity,

competitiveness and prosperity of the places. After that, it analysed expected global

changes in places’ activities, attractivity conditions as well as potential resident population.

As mentioned earlier, this method includes a third part dedicated to Strategy. This part (not

presented here) consists, basically, in:

Choosing the path for the place.

Choosing where should local authorities focus their efforts.

Defining the desirable actors’ game.

38

Annex A: Related Works Published by DPP’s Foresight Unit19:

“Focus on Future”:

Nr. 3: “Portugal: Territorial and Activities Foresight”, May 2004

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Foco_no_Futuro3.pdf).

Nr. 2: “European Regions with Knowledge Based Economies”, September 2003

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Foco_no_Futuro2.pdf).

Nr. 1: “FDI – Activities, Investors and Areas of Attraction / Finland – Road to the Top /

Globalisation, Growth and Property Poles – the Belgium case / Spain – the Latin America

Expansion”, January 2003 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Foco_no_Futuro1.pdf).

and

“Portugal, the Littoral and the Globalisation”, José M. Félix Ribeiro, Manuela Proença20,

Isabel Marques and Joana Chorincas, Lisbon, DPP, 2003

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Portugal_litoral_globalizacao.pdf).

“The European Regions and the Innovation and Knowledge-based Sectors”, José M. Félix

Ribeiro and Isabel Marques, Lisbon, DPP, 2003

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Regioes_Europeias.pdf).

“The Internationalisation of the Portuguese Economy in the 90's”, José M. Félix Ribeiro, in

Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol.9 (special number), 2003, pp. 69-85

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/revista03_esp/Internacionalizacao.pdf).

“The Infrastructural Sectors in the Internationalisation of Portuguese Economy”, Carlos

Nunes, in Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol.9 (special number), 2003, pp. 147-220

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/revista03_esp/Sectores_infraestruturais.pdf).

“Regional Dynamics in Portugal. Demography and Investments”, Joana Chorincas, Lisbon,

DPP, 2003 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Dinamicas_regionais.pdf).

19 Only Portuguese versions are available at the moment.

20 Director of DPP’s Macroeconomics Unit.

39

“Portugal 2015 - Internationalisation of Portuguese Economy. A Prospective Approach”,

José M. Félix Ribeiro, Lisboa, DPP, 2002 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Portugal2015.pdf).

“Identification of Successful and Knowledge-based Regions in Europe”, José M. Félix Ribeiro

and Isabel Marques, in Informação Internacional, 2002, pp. 261-309

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Infint02/VII1.pdf).

“Regional Economic Development within European Community. An explanation using

clusters analysis”, Joana Chorincas, in Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol.8, 2002, pp. 101-131

(http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/revista02/Clusters.pdf).

"Clusters and Innovation Policies – Concepts, European Experiences and Perspectives of its

use in Portugal”, José M. Félix Ribeiro, Joana Chorincas and Isabel Marques, in Prospectiva

e Planeamento, vol. 7, 2001, pp. 43-104 (http://www.dpp.pt/pdf/Clusters.pdf).

40

About the Team

José M. Félix Ribeiro ([email protected]) is Sub Director General of the Department of Foresight and

Planning (Portuguese Ministry for Towns, Local Administration, Housing and Regional Development)

since 1995 and coordinates the Foresight team of the same department. Born in 1948 at Lisbon, he

graduated in Economics in 1971. During his career he also worked for the Cabinet for Basic Studies

in Industrial Economics (GEBEI; 1972-1986 – work done in the area of Industrial Economics and

International Specialization) and for the National Council for Scientific and Technological Research

(JNICT; 1986–1994: responsible for the Studies and Planning Division with coordination of the

preparatory works for and negotiation of the structural programmes in the C&T field: CIÊNCIA;

STRIDE e PRAXIS XXI). He also worked with the Portuguese Secretary of State of Planning (1986–1994:

works in the field of International Economics and Development Strategy) and coordinated the

teams that prepared the Strategic Options documents for the Portuguese Regional Development

Plans 1994-1999 and 2000-2006. He has numerous publications in the fields of Regional and

Territorial Foresight (among others).

Paulo de Carvalho ([email protected]) is a member of DPP’s Foresight Unit since 1999. His main areas

of work are Technology and Futures Studies methodologies. Born in 1969 at Lisbon, he graduated in

Economics in 1994 (Lisbon University). He concluded a Master in Economics and Management of

Science and Technology (Lisbon University) in 1997 and a Master in Foresight and Strategy

(Portuguese Institute for Financial and Fiscal Studies) in 1998. During his career he also worked for

the Portuguese Institute for Innovation in Training (INOFOR, 1996 - 1999). He has several publications

in the fields of Economy of Technology and Foresight.

António Alvarenga ([email protected]) is a member of DPP’s Foresight Unit since 2000. His main areas

of work are European Affairs and Futures Studies methodologies. Born in 1974 at Viseu, he

graduated in Economics in 1997 (Oporto University). In 1999 he concluded the Master of Arts in

European Economic Studies (College of Europe, Bruges) and presently prepares his final

dissertation for a Master in Strategy (Lisbon University). During his career he also worked for Pepsico

(1997-1988), the European Parliament (Brussels, 1999), Guarda Polytechnic Institute (assistant

teacher of Macroeconomics, 2000), the Portuguese Institute for Employment and Training (IEFP,

2000) and the Portuguese Investment Agency (API, 2003–2004). He has several publications in the

fields of European Studies and Foresight.

We would like to thank Helena Cordeiro and Daniel Alvarenga for their insights and help with this

English version.

41

For More Information

José M. Félix

Ribeiro

+351.213935327

[email protected]

Carlos

Figueiredo

+351.213935311

[email protected]

Paulo de

Carvalho

+351.213935301

[email protected]

António

Alvarenga

+351.213935371

[email protected]

Direcção de Serviços de Prospectiva – Departamento de Prospectiva e Planeamento

(Ministério das Cidades, Administração Local, Habitação e Desenvolvimento Regional)

Avenida Dom Carlos I, 126 – 4º frente

1249-073 Lisboa Portugal

DPP (MCALHDR), 2004

Documents

Strategic Territorial Foresight