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Presentation given to Alumni and friends of the Governor's Leadership Foundation program at the Leaders' Institute of South Australia on 10 July 2012.The presentation canvassed some of the complex and challenging issues we face as leaders and explain how strategic foresight skills could be used to better diagnose issues and identify possibilities for action and adaptive leadership.
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Futures Thinking & Strategic Visioning
Leading InsightsLeaders’ Institute of South Australia
tedxadelaide.com
bridge8.com.au
youtube.com/thebridge8youtube.com/technyouvids
@kristinalford
Climate
Photo: mugfaker, Flickr
Photo: mugfaker, Flickr
Photo: mugfaker, Flickr
Photo: mugfaker, Flickr
EducationExample: NAPLAN Testing
HealthExample: Royal Adelaide Hospital Relocation
Foresight Tools
‘I can give you the present. I don‘t know about the future, that’s such stuff and nonsense’
Tim Finn - Split Enz, ‘Stuff and Nonsense’
Individual
Collective
Interior Exterior
Intentional “I”Own thoughts,
beliefs and values
Culture “We”Family &
relationships
Behaviour “It”Skills and learned
behaviours, what we see
Systems “ITS”Political, legal,
technology, environment and
economic systems
Wilber, K 2001, A theory of everything: an integral vision for business, politics, science and spirituality, Shambhala, Boston.Wilber, K 2005, ‘Introduction to integral theory and practice: IOS Basic and the AQAL map’, in KBFS, vol. 3, pt 4.
‘Restless future burning bright, the past is holding on so tight’
Bernard Fanning, ‘Wish You Well’, Tea & Symphony, 2005
Causal Layered AnalysisLitany
• quantitative trends, problems, media
Social Causes• economic, cultural, political, historical
Structure / Worldviews• deeper social, linguistic and cultural
structures, values
Metaphor or Myth• underlying stories, collective archetypes,
unconscious, emotive
Inayatullah, S 2005, Questioning the future: methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation, 2nd edition, Tamkang University Press, Taiwan
Well, I’ve been thinking ‘bout the future, too young to pretend, such a waste to always look behind you, you should be looking straight ahead’
Jet, ‘Move On’, Get Born, 2003
Pull of the FutureCompeting images of the future
Map thePlausible
FuturePush of the FutureTrends and current drivers of changeEg New Technologies, Globalisation, Demographic shifts
Weight of the FutureDeep StructuresWhat is problematic to change?What should be carried through?
Inayatullah, S 2005, Questioning the future: methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation, 2nd edition, Tamkang University Press, Taiwan
Futures Triangle
Tibbs, H 2000, Making the Future Visible: Psychology, Scenarios, and Strategy, Global Business Network, March, accessed 3 May 2006, www.hardintibbs.com.
Contemplation + Action
Foresight requires both contemplation and action1 Reflectiveness is critical to generate insight, but these insights must also be linked to
action to effect change2
1. Dror, Y 2005, ‘Futures studies for contemplation and action’, in KBFS, vol. 3, pt 1.2. Brown A 1999, ‘Ten ways futurists can avoid being destroyed’, Futures Research Quarterly, Summer, pp 7-13 & Kahane, A 2001, ‘How to change the world: lessons for entrepreneurs from activities,’ Reflections vol. 2, no.3, pp.16-29.